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Easing of risk weights on loans given to MFIs and NBFCs
Equities, Markets - January 27, 2025

Bank Results highlight issues in the banking segment

Bank Results highlight issues in the banking segment

Overview
Earnings season has begun, and as usual, the performance of the banking industry provides insight into the overall health of the economy and underlying patterns in the payback cycle. The December figures thus far suggest that the industry is under underlying pressure.

IDFC First Bank’s profit slides
For example, IDFC First Bank’s quarter has been uneventful, with a notable 52.6 percent year-over-year drop in net profit at Rs 339.4 crore. The decline has mostly been ascribed to a downturn in the microfinance industry and an increase in wholesale banking’s market share, both of which have had an impact on the lender’s net interest margin (NIM).

Even though the bank’s net interest income (NII) increased 14.4% to Rs 4,902 crore, it is evident that certain business model and operational issues are plaguing the bank. Notwithstanding the difficulties, the rise in core operating profit (up 15 percent) and operational income (up 15 percent) suggests a strong base performance.

The shift in IDFC’s microfinance business appears to be the fundamental problem. The bank may eventually take advantage of operational efficiencies as its scale grows as it shifts to universal banking, which includes branching out into areas like wealth management, corporate banking, and credit cards. Despite its short-term difficulties, the microfinance shift brings to light the difficulties in sustaining profitability while striking a balance with adherence to regulatory standards such Priority Sector Lending (PSL) for underprivileged sectors.

ICICI Bank’s margin suffers
At Rs 11,792 crore, ICICI Bank’s net profit increased by 15% year over year. The second-largest private bank by assets in India may also be suffering margin compression, as evidenced by the minor drop in NIM from 4.43 percent to 4.25 percent, despite a 9.1 percent increase in net interest revenue to Rs 20,370 crore. This is especially noteworthy because the Indian banking sector is under pressure from both increased competition for customer deposits and inflationary cost rises.

Despite a slight decline in its gross non-performing assets (NPA) percentage, ICICI Bank’s steady asset quality indicates a robust business strategy. Given the seasonal stress in the Kisan Credit Card portfolio, a vital component of rural credit, the 17% increase in provisions indicates a responsible strategy in light of bad loan risks.

HDFC Bank’s asset quality drops
The earnings of HDFC Bank also indicated deterioration on asset quality a few days ago. The third quarter’s gross non-performing assets (GNPA) climbed 16 percent to Rs 36,019 crore from Rs 31,012 crore in the same period last year. From 1.26 percent the year before to 1.42 percent, the GNPA ratio increased by 18 basis points (bps). The net non-performing assets (NNPA) ratio increased 15 basis points to 0.46 percent from 0.31 percent YoY, while NNPA itself surged 51 percent to Rs 11,588 crore. The quarter’s provisions decreased by 25% from the same period last year, from Rs 4,217 crore to Rs 3,154 crore.

Faults in the Banking Sector
These figures highlight both potential and problems for the banking sector as a whole. The emphasis on high-margin assets is increasing, but as the economic and legal environment changes, niche markets like microfinance encounter difficulties. It is anticipated that the theme of pressure on margins from growing interest rates and heightened competition for retail deposits would persist.

Banks face two challenges: maintaining strong deposits and managing the slowdown in lending growth due to dampened demand. There are concerns regarding the reasons behind the decline in credit growth. In order to reduce their credit-deposit (CD) ratios, banks may be purposefully limiting loan expansion. The Reserve Bank of India has cautioned against this practice because of the hazards involved. Over-leveraging and possible trouble fulfilling commitments may be indicated by a high CD ratio.

On the other hand, the slowdown can be the result of lower credit demand in particular markets. Significant drops in personal and service loan credit growth are shown in data from the prior year, which may indicate a slowdown in economic activity in these sectors. In terms of deposit growth, banks have increased their attempts to attract investors by raising deposit interest rates.

Budget to reduce NPAs to strengthen the banking sector
Without addressing the problem of non-performing assets (NPAs), which has afflicted the Indian banking industry for many years, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman cannot implement any reforms. A favorable trend is seen in recent statistics from the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Financial Stability Report (December 2024), which shows that gross non-performing assets (NPAs) for scheduled commercial banks decreased from 3.9% in March 2023 to a 12-year low of 2.6% in September 2024.

Achieving significant reforms will depend on taking lessons from the past and avoiding repeated inefficiencies. The budget’s suggested actions can lower non-performing assets (NPAs) and pave the way for long-term financial stability and economic growth if they are implemented with a comprehensive strategy. Since the Indian economy shows promise for the future, this budget would be crucial because, in addition to financial institutions like banks, NBFCs, ARCs, and AIFs, private credit players and international distressed funds are also closely monitoring this area in the hopes that the sector’s full potential will be realized.

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NBFC & HFC Loan Growth to Slow in FY25 Amid Softer Demand and RBI Norms

NBFC & HFC Loan Growth to Slow in FY25 Amid Softer Demand and RBI Norms

Overview
A Jefferies study projected that the loan growth of Indian Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) and Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) (apart from Infrastructure Finance Companies (IFCs)) would slow to 17% in FY25 from 21% in FY24. According to the research, this moderation is the result of softer macroeconomic conditions, which have led to a decline in loan demand. It predicted that growth would level off and settle at healthy levels in FY26e. It predicted that growth would level off and settle at healthy levels in FY26e. With the exception of IFC, we anticipate that sector loan growth will slow to 17% in FY25e (compared to 21% in FY24) and level off around these levels in FY26e. Additionally, according to an article published in the Economic Times, most lenders recorded reduced credit growth in the three months due to a combination of factors, including slower consumer demand, risk aversion toward unsecured loans, and lackluster deposit growth until late into the December quarter.

RBI’s guidelines on lending to NBFCs led to a slowdown in credit growth
According to the research, this moderation has been aided by a cyclical downturn in industries like automobiles as well as decreased lending to unsecured and microfinance loans (MFI), in accordance with RBI advice.

In November of last year, the RBI released guidelines on the NBFC’s lending criteria which increased risk weights on bank funding to NBFCs. This acted as the preliminary reason behind the slowing down in credit growth. The shadow banks diversified their funding sources as a result of this action. These days, NBFCs are more often using the domestic capital market to raise money through bonds and the international market to access dollar bonds and syndicated loans. Put this in figures, compared to a 19% increase in the same time in 2023, lending growth to the NBFC sector fell to 7.8% year-over-year in the two weeks ended November 29, 2024. As a result of this slowdown, sectoral deployment data issued by the RBI showed that credit growth to the services sector decreased from 22.2% year over year to 14.4%.

In absolute terms, credit to the NBFC sector was Rs 15.75 trillion at the end of the two weeks ending November 29, 2024, as opposed to Rs 15.48 trillion at the end of the two weeks ending March 22, 2024, according to RBI data. In its most recent “trend and progress report,” the RBI emphasized that NBFCs must further diversify their funding sources as a risk mitigation tactic because, notwithstanding recent moderation, their reliance on banks is still significant.

Jefferies report further stated that during 1HFY25e, growth moderation was comparatively milder in other areas, although it has been significant in unsecured PL, consumer lending, and MFI.

According to the RBI’s Financial Stability Report, shadow bank loan growth slowed to 6.5% on a half-year-on-half-year (H-O-H) basis in September 2024 after the RBI increased risk weights on NBFC lending to specific consumer credit categories and bank lending to NBFCs. The RBI claims that the upper-layer NBFCs segment, which is mainly made up of NBFC-Investment credit companies and has a large percentage of retail lending (63.8%) in its loan book, was where the effects of the credit moderation were most noticeable. Nonetheless, middle-layer NBFCs—apart from government-owned NBFCs—maintained strong credit growth, particularly in portfolios of retail loans.

Additionally, private placement is the preferred method for bonds listed on reputable exchanges, and NBFCs continue to be the biggest issuers in the corporate bond market. NBFCs tried to diversify their funding sources by issuing more listed non-convertible debentures (NCDs) in the face of a slowdown in bank direct lending. In order to diversify their funding sources and keep total expenses under control, NBFCs are now taking out more foreign currency loans. Nevertheless, the RBI has issued a warning that, to the extent that these NBFCs remain unhedged, the increase in foreign currency borrowings may present currency concerns.

Asset Under Management of NBFCs on a decline
According to the research, NBFCs’ Asset Under Management (AUM) growth is anticipated to decrease to 20% in FY25 from 24% in FY24. HFCs might, however, experience better AUM growth, increasing from 11% in FY24 to 12–13% in FY26. Further, economic activity is expected to rise in FY26, which would help stabilize growth in the sector.For the FY25–27 period, the coverage AUM (excluding IIFL) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19%, which is slightly higher than the 18% predicted for FY25. As of September 2024, the growth in loans for Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) and NBFCs has decreased from 22% in March 2024 to 20%.

Further, the slowdown has been most noticeable in consumer financing, MFI loans, and unsecured personal loans, while growth in other areas has slowed down somewhat in the first half of FY25. About 30% of NBFC and HFC lending is provided by infrastructure finance companies (IFCs), whose share of the sector’s asset under management (AUM) growth slowed to 15% in September 2024 from 18% in March 2024.

Sectoral credit growth trends to follow in 2025
By segment, incremental growth trends in 2025 are probably going to differ. Auto loans and other segments are forecast to stabilize and possibly pick up if macroeconomic conditions improve as planned, the research noted, even if growth in unsecured loans and MFI loans is predicted to remain muted throughout the first half of the year.

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Credit Growth Expected to Slow as Provision Costs Rise

Credit Growth Expected to Slow as Provision Costs Rise

Recently, the credit rating agency ICRA, an affiliate of Moody’s Investor Services slashed credit growth rate outlook for the Indian banking sector. The newer revised outlook for credit growth predicts that the loan growth would witness a slight slowdown to 10.5% to 11% for the fiscal year ending March, 2025. The revision is a reduction from the previous forecast of 11.6% to 12.5%. Primarily, the cause behind this alteration includes a sharp decrease in the lending segment in particular sections such as unsecured retail borrowers and NBFCs. When it comes to NBFCs, the credit growth decelerated to 7.8% year-on-year when compared to 19% for the previous year. RBI in November, 2023, increased risk weights on bank credit to NBFCs, prompting these institutions to diversify the source of their funding. Therefore, as these specific segments carry higher yielding returns but at the same time carry even higher risks, banks have become increasingly cautious when it comes to their lending practices.

Lending or credit growth by Indian banks slowed for the fifth consecutive month in November, up 11.8% year-on-year from 16.5% in November 2023. Including the impact of the HDFC Bank merger, credit growth stood at 10.6% compared to around 21% for the previous year. This moderation in credit growth follows the actions of the Reserve Bank of India to curb excessive lending on unsecured loans. Credit growth had also slowed in the previous months (October, July, August and September). Despite this slowdown, banks continue to report double-digit growth, supported by high retail demand and urban infrastructure. Furthermore, banks are now focused on improving their already high credit-to-deposit (CD) ratio. ICRA has stated that the loan growth will further decrease to 9.7% to 10.3% in the fiscal year ending March, 2026. This reduction would be a result of trimming CD ratios by the banks and the alteration in the implementation of changes in the liquidity coverage ratio framework which would kick in next fiscal fiscal year.

Bank margins would take a hit with consistently higher interest rates and a gradual slowdown in credit growth, said Sachin Sachdev from ICRA. As the primary source of bank margins are through disbursing of personal loan and other unsecured loan products, a significant reduction in the volume of such loans would definitely impact overall profitability of the bank. Further if the interest rates continue to decline in the future, banks could suffer with stagnant profit figures as the range between the lending and borrowing rate would grow narrower.

ICRA further stated that bank margins would be impacted by rate cuts which accelerate yield transmission. On the other hand, banks’ return on asset (RoA) is expected to stay in good health lying in the range of 1.1% to 1.2% for FY2026 and 1.2% to 1.3% for FY2025 when compared with 1.3% for FY2024. Additionally, with slower credit growth, banks would witness enhancement in loss absorption capacity with bolstering growth needs. Thus, banks would lend less aggressively and improve their reverses and manage high risks associated with high risk lending segments.

Banks’ balance sheets would be further stretched by the impact of the implementation of expected credit loss (ECL) framework and increased provision for medium term project financing. The ECL framework would require banks to set aside provisions for bad loans way earlier than they currently do. This would significantly improve transparency and risk management but at the same time increases financial burden on banks for short-term. Additionally, banks would be required to set aside higher provisions for project finance, particularly in infrastructure and large-scale projects. As a result, these provisions put pressure on banks’ financial resources, affecting the overall profitability including bank margins.

To handle and offset these challenges in the banking space, Indian banks are turning to the bond market to raise funds. Sachdev further elaborated that due to difficulties in attracting deposits, banks are now shifting strategies for fundraising and are expected to issue bonds at an increasing rate in the near future. Sighting this, banks are expected to surpass their previous high and could touch Rs. 1.3 trillion for FY2025 when compared to Rs. 1.02 trillion for FY2024.

Coming to the retail space, with the increasing stress, the fresh slippages by banks are on the rise while recovering are expected to slow down. The gross fresh NPA generation by banks is expected to increase slightly to 1.6% in FY2025 from 1.5% in FY2024 which still remains way lower than previous years. Eyeing this situation, gross NPAs would rise and correlatively GNPA ratio would also rise in FY2026.

Lastly, ICRA emphasized that although NPA generation rate is set to pick up, credit costs would likely only rise slightly due to lower legacy net NPAs. To improve banks’ bottomline, with higher current provision coverage ratio (PCR), banks would have more room to lower incremental provisions. Coming to numbers, credit expenses account for upto 21% to 23% of the operating profit of the banking sector in FY2025 and 27% to 30% in FY2026

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