NBFC & HFC Loan Growth to Slow in FY25 Amid Softer Demand and RBI Norms
Overview
A Jefferies study projected that the loan growth of Indian Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) and Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) (apart from Infrastructure Finance Companies (IFCs)) would slow to 17% in FY25 from 21% in FY24. According to the research, this moderation is the result of softer macroeconomic conditions, which have led to a decline in loan demand. It predicted that growth would level off and settle at healthy levels in FY26e. It predicted that growth would level off and settle at healthy levels in FY26e. With the exception of IFC, we anticipate that sector loan growth will slow to 17% in FY25e (compared to 21% in FY24) and level off around these levels in FY26e. Additionally, according to an article published in the Economic Times, most lenders recorded reduced credit growth in the three months due to a combination of factors, including slower consumer demand, risk aversion toward unsecured loans, and lackluster deposit growth until late into the December quarter.
RBI’s guidelines on lending to NBFCs led to a slowdown in credit growth
According to the research, this moderation has been aided by a cyclical downturn in industries like automobiles as well as decreased lending to unsecured and microfinance loans (MFI), in accordance with RBI advice.
In November of last year, the RBI released guidelines on the NBFC’s lending criteria which increased risk weights on bank funding to NBFCs. This acted as the preliminary reason behind the slowing down in credit growth. The shadow banks diversified their funding sources as a result of this action. These days, NBFCs are more often using the domestic capital market to raise money through bonds and the international market to access dollar bonds and syndicated loans. Put this in figures, compared to a 19% increase in the same time in 2023, lending growth to the NBFC sector fell to 7.8% year-over-year in the two weeks ended November 29, 2024. As a result of this slowdown, sectoral deployment data issued by the RBI showed that credit growth to the services sector decreased from 22.2% year over year to 14.4%.
In absolute terms, credit to the NBFC sector was Rs 15.75 trillion at the end of the two weeks ending November 29, 2024, as opposed to Rs 15.48 trillion at the end of the two weeks ending March 22, 2024, according to RBI data. In its most recent “trend and progress report,” the RBI emphasized that NBFCs must further diversify their funding sources as a risk mitigation tactic because, notwithstanding recent moderation, their reliance on banks is still significant.
Jefferies report further stated that during 1HFY25e, growth moderation was comparatively milder in other areas, although it has been significant in unsecured PL, consumer lending, and MFI.
According to the RBI’s Financial Stability Report, shadow bank loan growth slowed to 6.5% on a half-year-on-half-year (H-O-H) basis in September 2024 after the RBI increased risk weights on NBFC lending to specific consumer credit categories and bank lending to NBFCs. The RBI claims that the upper-layer NBFCs segment, which is mainly made up of NBFC-Investment credit companies and has a large percentage of retail lending (63.8%) in its loan book, was where the effects of the credit moderation were most noticeable. Nonetheless, middle-layer NBFCs—apart from government-owned NBFCs—maintained strong credit growth, particularly in portfolios of retail loans.
Additionally, private placement is the preferred method for bonds listed on reputable exchanges, and NBFCs continue to be the biggest issuers in the corporate bond market. NBFCs tried to diversify their funding sources by issuing more listed non-convertible debentures (NCDs) in the face of a slowdown in bank direct lending. In order to diversify their funding sources and keep total expenses under control, NBFCs are now taking out more foreign currency loans. Nevertheless, the RBI has issued a warning that, to the extent that these NBFCs remain unhedged, the increase in foreign currency borrowings may present currency concerns.
Asset Under Management of NBFCs on a decline
According to the research, NBFCs’ Asset Under Management (AUM) growth is anticipated to decrease to 20% in FY25 from 24% in FY24. HFCs might, however, experience better AUM growth, increasing from 11% in FY24 to 12–13% in FY26. Further, economic activity is expected to rise in FY26, which would help stabilize growth in the sector.For the FY25–27 period, the coverage AUM (excluding IIFL) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19%, which is slightly higher than the 18% predicted for FY25. As of September 2024, the growth in loans for Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) and NBFCs has decreased from 22% in March 2024 to 20%.
Further, the slowdown has been most noticeable in consumer financing, MFI loans, and unsecured personal loans, while growth in other areas has slowed down somewhat in the first half of FY25. About 30% of NBFC and HFC lending is provided by infrastructure finance companies (IFCs), whose share of the sector’s asset under management (AUM) growth slowed to 15% in September 2024 from 18% in March 2024.
Sectoral credit growth trends to follow in 2025
By segment, incremental growth trends in 2025 are probably going to differ. Auto loans and other segments are forecast to stabilize and possibly pick up if macroeconomic conditions improve as planned, the research noted, even if growth in unsecured loans and MFI loans is predicted to remain muted throughout the first half of the year.
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