Loan growth, higher margins, and lower costs to drive bank bottom lines in Q1.

Loan growth, higher margins, and lower costs to drive bank bottom lines in Q1.

Indian banks are predicted to post strong core earnings growth in the June quarter. This is due to the improved margins and decline in credit costs. However, rising yields may affect the marked-to-market losses impacting the earnings. The analysts estimated that the credit growth for the banking system will increase by 12%, driven by private banks. Net interest margins may go up by 3%. This is due to better net interest income and an upward interest rate cycle. The treasury loss and lower fees may decline the other income by 27%.

The net profit of the overall banking is predicted to drop by 11.5% on QoQ basis. The margin outlook, guidance on deposit accretion for some banks and treasury loss have to be monitored.

State Bank of India (CMP Rs. 484.95) is expected to report strong PAT growth. HDFC Bank (CMP Rs. 1,391.80) may report a drop in net profit and NIM is expected to remain range-bound. Kotak Mahindra Bank (CMP Rs. 1718.95) could continue improvement in loan growth however net profit might decline on a QoQ basis. ICICI Bank (CMP Rs. 759.90) might maintain its loan growth momentum as retail continues to see traction while Axis margins are expected to improve. The banks that have a higher share of floating rate books, including mortgages, could have increased credit growth, and rising interest rates. Valuations have also been corrected. This provides a margin of safety. Additionally, asset quality is on the mend, with the risk of a fresh NPA cycle remaining low. This should lead to healthy profitability and return ratios for banks. The gross bad loans might ease up and the overall slippages, recoveries and provisions may return to normal.

According to analysts, the overall Gross non-performing assets ratio is estimated to decline by 20 basis points or by 5.2% in the June quarter. Further, there will be lower slippages reflecting a low EMI bounce rate at 22%, better recovery trends in retail and higher w-offs with banks sitting on excess provisions. Asset quality is expected to improve. As increasing interest rates and the end of the moratorium are building pressure, stress behaviour in the MSME segment needs to be monitored.