Defence Stocks Retreat After Two-Day Rally Amid Israel-Iran Ceasefire

Defence Stocks Retreat After Two-Day Rally Amid Israel-Iran Ceasefire

After witnessing a robust rally over the past two trading sessions, Indian defence sector stocks reversed course on June 24, 2025, as global tensions eased following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. The market’s reaction was immediate and widespread, with leading defence companies experiencing a notable decline in share prices. This correction came as investors chose to book profits amid reduced geopolitical risk, especially after recent gains driven by conflict-related speculation.

Market Overview: Broad Sell-Off in Defence Stocks

Several prominent defence firms saw their share prices fall by over 2% during the trading session, with some companies losing up to 6–7% in value. BEML Ltd and Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers (GRSE) were among the biggest losers on the day, with BEML dropping approximately 6.4% and GRSE slipping between 5% to 7%.

The sell-off wasn’t limited to just a few names. Other major players, including Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL), Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL), Paras Defence & Space Technologies, IdeaForge Technology, and Cochin Shipyard, also witnessed intraday declines ranging between 2% and 6%.

By the end of the trading session, the Nifty India Defence Index had declined more than 2.2%, indicating widespread softness in defence stocks.

Ceasefire Triggers Risk Sentiment Shift

The trigger for this sudden reversal in defence stocks was the official announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, bringing an end to weeks of military escalation in the Middle East. Global equity markets reacted positively to the news, shifting investor sentiment away from defence and toward safer and more stable sectors.

During the conflict period, investors had rushed to buy defence stocks, anticipating that global tensions would lead to increased defence spending and stronger order books for Indian defence suppliers. However, with the conflict de-escalating, the speculative risk premium that was priced into these stocks quickly eroded.

Analyst Perspective: Healthy Correction or Start of Repricing?

Market experts view the decline as a healthy correction following an overheated rally. According to Vishnu Kant Upadhyay of Master Capital Services, the sell-off is likely a short-term reaction to geopolitical developments and not indicative of weakening fundamentals. He stated, “This pullback is natural after such a sharp rise. However, the long-term structural story for India’s defence sector remains intact.”

Indeed, many analysts agree that despite the temporary weakness, the Indian government’s continued emphasis on indigenization, export growth, and Make in India initiatives will continue to drive long-term value in defence manufacturing and related sectors.

Fundamentals Remain Strong Despite Short-Term Pressure
Over the last few years, India has significantly boosted its defence budget and strengthened policies to support domestic manufacturing. In FY25, the country allocated over ₹6 lakh crore for defence spending, with increasing emphasis on procurement from domestic companies.

Moreover, India’s defence exports have been growing steadily. The government has set a target to achieve ₹25,000 crore in defence exports by FY26, encouraging companies to expand their production and improve competitiveness globally.

Companies like HAL, BEL, and Cochin Shipyard have benefited from consistent orders from the Indian Armed Forces, and firms like IdeaForge have found demand in cutting-edge technologies like drones and unmanned aerial systems, making them attractive for long-term investors.

Short-Term Volatility Offers Entry Opportunities

For retail and institutional investors, the correction could offer a good opportunity to accumulate quality defence stocks at lower valuations. While the ceasefire has removed immediate catalysts for rapid price movement, the sector continues to enjoy robust order books, healthy margins, and strong policy support.

Technical analysts also point out that despite the decline, many defence stocks continue to trade above key support levels, indicating that the long-term trend remains bullish.

Investors with a long-term horizon may consider this a consolidation phase rather than a reversal, particularly given the consistent push by the Indian government to reduce defence imports and develop indigenous capabilities.

Global Sentiment Also Shifts

International markets mirrored the sentiment seen in India. U.S. equity indices rallied on news of the truce, with defence-related stocks underperforming while broader sectors such as technology and financials gained. This global shift away from “conflict-driven” trades has been echoed in the Indian markets as well.

With geopolitical risk temporarily off the table, global funds are rebalancing their portfolios, leading to profit booking in sectors that benefited from conflict-driven speculation.

Conclusion

Indian defence stocks pulled back on June 24, reflecting a notable change in investor sentiment after the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. While the immediate driver of the recent rally has subsided, long-term fundamentals for India’s defence sector remain robust. This correction, though sharp, is seen more as a breather than a breakdown. For investors with a strategic view, the dip may present a chance to re-enter quality defence names at more reasonable valuations.

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