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South Indian Bank Q2FY25: Strong Profit, NIMs Contract, Asset Quality Improves

South Indian Bank Q2FY25: Strong Profit, NIMs Contract, Asset Quality Improves

NII Moderate; Strong Profitability; NIMs contract; Asset quality improved

About the Stock
➡️South indian bank is private sector bank operate in south region of India headquartered in Kerala. The bank has 955 branch network and majority situated in south India. The customer bas has increased from 7.3 Mn to 7.8 Mn within one year period. The bank loan book is well diversified 40% with corporate and remaining 60% retail book includes personals, agri and business.

Strong growth in Advances and Disbursement in Q2FY25
➡️The bank has reported strong growth annually in key business parameter. Gross Advances grew 13% YoY to 84,714 Cr, with corporate segment contributing 40% of the loan book, growing at 24% and personal segment contribute 25%, growing at same pace 24% while business loan and Agriculture contribute 15% and 20% respectively. Disbursement grew 77% YoY to 76,872 Cr led by corporates book. While the bank deposit lagging behind, increased by 9% YoY and borrowings decline 56% YoY. The CASA stand at 31.8% in Q2FY25 lower by 8 bps YoY.
➡️Personal segment loan book driven by growth in mortgage loan at 75% followed by home loan loan at 42%, gold loan 11%, auto loan 18% and credit card 37%.
➡️Retail disbursement momentum help by home loan, auto loan while agriculture and personal loan remains flat annually.

NII growth moderate while PAT jump 18% led by other income and lower tax
➡️Interest income increased by 11% YoY (+2% QoQ) to 2,355 Cr driven by yield expansion and advance growth. The yield on loan expand 19 bps YoY to 7.68% while Cost of fund jump 23 bps to 4.80% result contraction in NIMs. NII grew moderate at 6% YoY (+2% QoQ) to 882 Cr due to high expansion in CoF makes contract NIMs by 7 bps. The bank’s PAT surged 18% YoY (+10% QoQ) to 325 Cr led by higher other income and lower tax expense despite the jump in credit cost. The stable the employee cost and total operating cost kick in operating leverage and boost the profitability.

Asset quality enhanced; stress book reduce
➡️Company has reduced the stress assets from 1,159 Cr in Q2FY24 to 476 Cr in Q2FY25. Bank has churned 75% of overall loan book since covid level and 93% current GNPA from old book. GNPA/NNPA stood at 4.40%/1.31% decline by 56bps/39 bps YoY (10bps/13 bps QoQ). Slippages ratio decline to 0.36% in Q2FY25 vs 0.42% in Q2FY24. The provision coverage ratio expand 290 bps YoY to 80.7% vs 77.8% in Q2FY24.

Valuation and Key metrics
➡️Currently the stock is trading at 0.76 price to book value. The yield on advances jump 19 bps to 7.68% while CoF decline by 23 bps YoY to 4.80%. This result in contraction in NIMs by 7 bps to 3.24%. The increased in deposit rate to maintain and increased the deposit growth led to higher CoF and contract NIMs as Yield is stable.

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IPO Research Note on Waaree Energies Ltd

IPO Research Note on Waaree Energies Ltd

Company Overview
Waaree Energies Ltd. is a leading player in the solar energy sector, with a strong presence across manufacturing, EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction), and independent solar projects. Originally incorporated as Anmol Fluid Connectors in 1990, it transitioned into renewable energy by rebranding as Waaree Solar in 2007 and later becoming Waaree Energies. The company exports solar products to over 68 countries and operates one of India’s largest solar photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturing facilities.

With the ambitious expansion of 6GW capacity in Odisha, Waaree aims to strengthen its foothold across the solar energy value chain, enhancing vertical integration from wafer production to module manufacturing.

  • IPO Details
    IPO Type: Fresh Issue and Offer for Sale (OFS)
  • Fresh Issue Size: ₹30,000 million
  • Offer for Sale (OFS): Up to 3.2 million equity shares
  • Face Value: ₹10 per share
  • Price Band: ₹1427 to ₹1503
  • Bid Lot Size: 9
  • Use of Proceeds: Primarily for:

Funding 6GW manufacturing plant in Odisha
Working capital needs
General corporate purposes
Anchor Investor Bidding Date: One day prior to the IPO opening

  • Stock Exchange Listing: NSE and BSE

The IPO will consist of both fresh shares and an offer for sale by promoters, including Waaree Sustainable Finance and key stakeholders. Investors will participate through the book-building process, and the final price will be determined based on investor demand during the bidding period.

Industry Outlook and Growth Drivers
India’s solar energy industry is poised for significant growth, driven by a shift toward clean energy, government incentives, and decreasing production costs. Solar power accounts for nearly 50% of India’s renewable energy capacity target by 2030.

Key Growth Drivers:
Government Support and PLI Schemes: India has introduced the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme to boost domestic manufacturing of solar modules and reduce import dependency.
Carbon Emission Targets: India’s commitment to net-zero carbon emissions by 2070 and intermediate targets for 2030 will enhance the adoption of solar energy solutions.
Increasing Solar Adoption: Commercial, industrial, and residential sectors are witnessing increasing demand for rooftop solar and utility-scale installations.
Technological Innovations: New technologies like bifacial modules, half-cut cells, and enhanced efficiency systems will drive market demand.
Falling Costs: The declining cost of PV modules has made solar power more attractive compared to other energy sources.

Key Financial Analysis
Revenue Growth: Waaree has posted consistent revenue growth, benefiting from rising domestic and export demand for solar modules.
Profit Margins: The company enjoys stable margins, though fluctuations in raw material prices (such as polysilicon) remain a challenge.
Debt Levels: Waaree’s ongoing capacity expansion has led to higher debt, but the company maintains manageable leverage levels, supported by cash flows from operations.
Cash Flow Position: Positive cash flow generation provides a cushion for working capital requirements and reduces dependency on external borrowings.

Comparison with Competitors
Key Competitors:

Adani Solar: An integrated solar manufacturer with strong backing from the Adani Group. It benefits from scale and group synergies.
Vikram Solar: Focused on high-quality manufacturing and strong export business. However, Waaree has a more diversified business model with its EPC and project businesses.
Tata Power Solar: A well-established player in the EPC segment. Tata focuses on project development, while Waaree offers a wider range of solar products and solutions.
Waaree Energies distinguishes itself with its focus on integrated operations (from manufacturing to EPC) and ambitious capacity expansion, making it one of the few companies in India capable of scaling quickly to meet growing demand.

Risks and Challenges
Volatility in Raw Material Prices: Polysilicon and other components are key to solar module production. Any fluctuation in global prices could impact margins.
Policy Risk: Changes in government incentives, import duties, or tax policies could affect profitability.
Execution Risk: Timely completion of the 6GW project in Odisha is critical to the company’s growth outlook. Delays or cost overruns could impact financial performance.
Competition from Global Players: Chinese solar manufacturers continue to dominate the market with competitive pricing.
Currency Risk: The company’s exposure to international markets exposes it to foreign exchange fluctuations.

Valuation Outlook
Waaree’s IPO valuation will be based on its growth potential, industry positioning, and earnings outlook. Comparable solar companies in India trade at P/E multiples of around 25-30x. Given Waaree’s expansion plans, strong demand outlook, and government support for domestic manufacturing, it may command a premium valuation. However, market sentiment toward the renewable energy sector will play a crucial role in determining final valuation multiples.

Recommendation
Waaree Energies offers a compelling investment opportunity, driven by:

  • Robust government incentives under the PLI scheme
  • Strong demand for solar modules in India and export markets
  • Expansion of the 6GW plant, positioning it for long-term growth

    However, the company faces risks from raw material volatility, execution challenges, and global competition. Investors with a long-term outlook on the renewable energy sector may consider subscribing to the IPO. The company’s ability to manage its expansion efficiently and sustain margins will be critical in delivering shareholder value post-listing.

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Hyundai IPO: Accelerating Toward Long-Term Growth

Hyundai IPO: Accelerating Toward Long-Term Growth

Hyundai IPO: Accelerating Toward Long-Term Growth

IPO Overview
Hyundai Motor India Limited (Hyundai) is gearing up for a landmark Initial Public Offering (IPO), set to be the largest in Indian history. The offering is an entirely offer-for-sale issue, allowing existing shareholders to monetize their holdings. With a price band of ₹1865-1960 per share, the issue size at the upper end will be ₹27,870 crore, implying a market cap of ₹1,59,258 crore. Priced at a 19.3x FY27 earnings multiple, the IPO offers investors a chance to capitalize on Hyundai’s strong market presence and promising future in the passenger vehicle (PV) industry.

Investment Highlights
1. Wide Product Portfolio and Market Leadership
Hyundai’s diverse range of offerings includes hatchbacks, sedans, and SUVs, providing an edge over competitors like Maruti Suzuki, which has traditionally been focused on entry-level and compact cars. This product diversification allows Hyundai to cater to a broader spectrum of customers, stabilizing its revenues across market cycles.

The company has also established a significant foothold in the export market, strengthening its position as a global player with higher average selling prices (ASPs) internationally. Hyundai is India’s largest passenger vehicle exporter, which not only enhances profitability but also mitigates domestic market risks.

2. SUV Leadership Fuels Margin Growth
The SUV segment remains Hyundai’s key growth driver. In FY24, Hyundai sold 3,89,000 SUVs, contributing to 63% of its domestic volumes, a stark contrast to Maruti Suzuki’s 36% SUV mix. SUVs, being premium products, command higher ASPs and margins, driving 7.4% CAGR growth in ASPs between FY22 and FY24.

This strategic focus on high-margin segments enabled Hyundai to achieve 100 bps expansion in EBITDA margins, even as commodity prices rose during FY21-FY22. Hyundai’s ability to maintain profitability through an optimized product mix highlights the company’s superior operational model.

3. Operational Efficiency and Capacity Expansion
Hyundai’s operational efficiency is reflected in its 10x asset turnover, outperforming Maruti’s 8x. The company’s plants run in three shifts, ensuring optimal utilization of capacity. Hyundai recently acquired General Motors’ Talegaon plant, which will expand its production capacity from 8.1 lakh units to 10.7 lakh units by FY29. The ₹32,500 crore investment required for this expansion will be funded entirely from internal accruals, underscoring the company’s financial strength.

4. Electric Vehicle Push and Future-Readiness
Hyundai is aggressively preparing for the transition to electric vehicles (EVs). It already has the Kona Electric on the market and plans to launch the Ioniq 5 soon. Hyundai aims to roll out six EV models by 2028 and is investing ₹4,000 crore in manufacturing and infrastructure to support this transition. This focus on future mobility solutions positions Hyundai as a frontrunner in the evolving EV landscape, giving it a competitive edge over peers like Maruti Suzuki, which has been slower to embrace the shift to electric.

5. Valuation and Attractive Pricing
At the upper price band, the IPO is valued at 19.3x FY27E P/E, which we believe is reasonable given Hyundai’s earnings potential. Additionally, the IPO is priced at a 12% discount to Maruti Suzuki’s trailing FY24 P/E, indicating that the company has left value on the table for investors. This makes Hyundai’s IPO not only an attractive long-term bet but also competitively priced compared to industry peers.

Risks to Consider
Supply Chain Dependence:
Hyundai imports about 20% of its cost of goods sold, mainly semiconductor components. Any disruption in global supply chains could impact production and profitability. However, the Indian government’s push for domestic semiconductor manufacturing may reduce this risk over time.

Rising Competition:
Hyundai faces intensifying competition in the SUV and EV segments from new players like Kia and MG Motors, which could put pressure on its market share and pricing power.

Royalty Payments:
Hyundai pays 3.5% of its sales as royalty to its parent company in South Korea. An increase in royalty payments could negatively impact margins.

Conclusion: A Compelling Long-Term Investment
Hyundai Motor India’s IPO presents a solid investment opportunity, backed by its strong market positioning, leadership in SUVs, and aggressive push into EVs. The company’s operational efficiency, combined with a diverse product portfolio and export strength, ensures a stable and scalable business model.

While the size of the IPO may limit listing gains, Hyundai’s growth prospects, competitive pricing, and strategic capacity expansion make it an attractive bet for long-term investors. Investors looking to ride India’s automotive growth story, particularly in high-margin SUVs and EVs, will find Hyundai well-positioned to capitalize on future opportunities.

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IREDA Q2FY25: Hydro and Solar Loans Lead Growth as India Targets 500 GW RE

IREDA Q2FY25: Hydro and Solar Loans Lead Growth as India Targets 500 GW RE

About the stock
➡️IREDA is PSU NBFC engaged in the business of financing green energy projects. Its finances project such as solar, wind power, hydro power etc. GoI has conferred the Navratna status upon IREDA in April 2024. Loan portfolio well diversified across the 23 states and 4 UT in FY24. It contributing major role in fueling the India’s RE taget of 500 GW by 20230.

Loan book up double digit 36% YoY /8% half yearly
➡️As on 30 sep 2024, loan book stood at 64,564 Cr represent growth of 36% YoY while half-yearly growth was moderate at 8%. This growth led by loan given to state utilities (43% YoY) followed by hydro power at 37%, solar 19% and wind at 7%.
➡️Along with loan book disbursement and sanction grew 44% and 240% to stood at 4,461 Cr and 8,650 Cr respectively.

Asset quality improved – GNPA down 17 bps/ NNPA jump 5 bps
➡️During the half year FY25, gross asset quality has improved by 17 bps declined in GNPA stood at 21.9% (1,415 Cr) in Q2FY25. While NNPA jump 5 bps to 1.04% (666 Cr) despite the surge in provision coverage ratio.

Borrowing jump 10% H2FY25 – domestic rise while foreign declined
➡️During H2FY25 company’s borrowing increased by 10% to stood at 54,639 Cr. Dometic borrowing raised 13% to 45,691 Cr while foreign borrowings declined 4%.
➡️In domestic borrowing, bank loan weightage has declined to 49% in Q2FY25 vs 59% in Q2FY24. while money raised through bonds weightage rise to 51% in Q2FY25 vs 41% in Q2FY24. The rising chance of rate cuts will declined the borrowing cost for company as bank loan and bond both equal weight in borrowing.
➡️Within the foreign borrowing, un-hedged portion rise to 27% in Q2FY25 vs 22% in Q4FY24. While hedged portion has declined equally to increased in un-hedged. The surge in un-hedged portion increased the currency risk.

Valuation and key metrics
➡️During the quarter, Yield on loan jump 15 bps to 9.92% while Cost of borrowing decline by 5 bps to 7.8%. This result in surge in spread and NIMs by 20 bps and 17 bps to stood at 2.12% and 3.34% respectively. The cost of borrowinf can further decline in coming quarter as RBI ready to ease monetary policy. Capital Adequacy ratio stood at 20.24% which is above the guidance of RBI but decline by 68 bps YoY.

Q2FY25 Results updates
➡️Interest income increased by 37% YoY (6% QoQ) to 1,577 Cr while interest expense jumped 30% YoY (6% QoQ) to 1,030 Cr. This result in NII grew by 52% YoY (8% QoQ) to 547 Cr. The surge in NII led by Nims expansion and increased in new loan book.
➡️PPOP grew 36% YoY (11% QoQ) to 494 Cr due to rising Opex (411% YoY). While PAT surged by 36% YoY and moderate on QoQ basis at 1% to stood at 388 Cr. The Jump in provision off set with the reduction in tax expense makes PAT growth unchanged with Operating profit.

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RBI's Surprise Rate Cut Sends Realty Stocks Tumbling: Is It Time to Reassess?

RBI’s October MPC: Rate Status Quo Likely Amid Persistent Inflation Concerns, Global Risks

RBI’s October MPC: Rate Status Quo Likely Amid Persistent Inflation Concerns, Global Risks

India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to reconvene this week, marking the first meeting for its three new external members: Ram Singh (Director, Delhi School of Economics), Saugata Bhattacharya (veteran economist), and Nagesh Kumar (Director, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development). Given their fresh appointments, all three are expected to follow the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) house view on rates, at least initially, as noted in a recent Bank of America report. While the new members lack any known rate biases, newcomers traditionally adopt the majority stance in their early days.

This is significant because it suggests that the RBI is likely to maintain the status quo on rates for the tenth consecutive policy meeting. This pattern aligns with Governor Shaktikanta Das’ cautious stance, particularly on inflation, which remains a key concern for the central bank’s policymakers.

Despite headline inflation falling below the RBI’s medium-term target of 4%—with CPI inflation at 3.65% in August, slightly up from July’s 3.6%—the central bank continues to exercise caution. The RBI’s reluctance to declare victory over inflation stems largely from persistent food price pressures. Governor Das, in the minutes of the August MPC meeting, underscored that while the base effect has helped lower headline inflation, food prices continue to pose challenges, and inflation expectations among households are rising. Therefore, monetary policy needs to remain vigilant to the risk of food price pressures spilling over into core inflation.

Adding to these inflationary concerns are risks posed by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. India is one of the world’s largest importers of crude oil, and escalating conflict in the region, particularly between Israel and Iran, could disrupt oil supplies and send prices skyrocketing. This could increase India’s oil import bill, which would, in turn, fuel inflation. Although crude oil is currently trading below the RBI’s assumed $85 per barrel average for FY25, any significant upward movement could complicate the inflation outlook. The central bank will undoubtedly factor this geopolitical risk into its deliberations.

Inflation is not the only concern for the MPC, however. Economic growth, while improving, remains below potential. Although India’s economy has shown some signs of recovery, unemployment continues to rise, and small businesses are grappling with high borrowing costs. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in particular, are struggling with rising interest payments, and there are growing concerns about asset quality in the SME sector. In light of these challenges, there is a strong case for the RBI to begin cutting interest rates to stimulate growth.

The RBI, however, faces a dilemma. On the one hand, inflation pressures, especially in food and core inflation, suggest the need for a cautious approach to rate cuts. On the other hand, the economic reality on the ground—rising unemployment, underwhelming growth, and financial strain among small businesses—argues for the central bank to shift its focus toward supporting growth.

The recent 50 basis point (bps) rate cut by the US Federal Reserve will also be a topic of discussion at the upcoming meeting. While the RBI Governor has consistently maintained that the Fed’s actions do not dictate India’s rate policy, the reality is that central banks around the world, including India’s, cannot fully ignore rate moves in major economies like the US. The Fed’s rate cut may influence the MPC’s thinking, particularly if global economic conditions continue to weaken.

In summary, while the October meeting is likely to result in a rate status quo, the groundwork is being laid for a potential rate cut in the next few months. With inflation pressures still present but stabilizing, and economic growth faltering, the RBI will likely need to pivot toward growth support soon. However, much will depend on how inflation, particularly food prices, evolves in the coming months, and how global risks, such as the Middle East conflict and US monetary policy, unfold. If inflationary pressures subside, a rate cut could be on the horizon by the end of the year.

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Kaynes Technology Acquires Iskraemeco India to Strengthen Presence in Smart Meters

Kaynes Technology Acquires Iskraemeco India to Strengthen Presence in Smart Meters

Kaynes Technology, a leading player in India’s Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) market, is positioning itself for rapid growth across several high-potential segments, including smart meters, semiconductors, and printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturing. The company has recently acquired a 100 percent stake in Iskraemeco India, a subsidiary of a Slovenian company, which is a strategic move aimed at strengthening its foothold in the smart meter market.

The acquisition deal, valued at Rs 43 crore, gives Kaynes full control of Iskraemeco India, a company that generated Rs 65 crore in turnover in FY24. While Iskraemeco India is still operating below break-even levels, the enterprise value (EV)/sales ratio of 0.7 times makes the deal attractive, especially given the long-term potential of the smart meter market in India. This acquisition aligns with Kaynes’ broader strategy of leveraging new growth opportunities in the evolving smart meter ecosystem, driven by the Indian government’s ambitious Smart Meter National Program (SMNP).

Tapping into the Smart Meter Opportunity
The Smart Meter National Program, part of the government’s larger power sector reform, seeks to replace 25 crore traditional electricity meters with prepaid smart meters over the next five years. The initiative includes modernizing infrastructure such as feeders and transformers, with an estimated total capital expenditure of Rs 1.5 lakh crore. With smart meter penetration currently standing at just 2-3 percent, there is substantial room for growth. The goal is to bring more transparency and efficiency to India’s power sector, and Kaynes sees this as a major area of opportunity.

To capitalize on this demand, Kaynes has set up a dedicated manufacturing plant for smart meters in Hyderabad. The facility has a current production capacity of 1 million units, but the company plans to scale this up to 4 million units in the near future by adding additional assembly lines. This move will allow Kaynes to ramp up its production capabilities to meet the growing demand from government projects and utilities across India.

The acquisition of Iskraemeco India further solidifies Kaynes’ position in this market. Iskraemeco India has secured a significant order from Power Grid Corporation of Gujarat to install 3.5 million smart meters over the next 12-18 months. This deal provides a strong revenue stream in the near term and reflects the high demand for smart meters, driven by government mandates and infrastructure upgrades. Kaynes is also expecting additional orders from the central government as well as from various state governments, which could provide further tailwinds for its smart meter segment.

The smart meter business currently contributes 2-3 percent of Kaynes’ total turnover, but management expects this to increase to 10 percent by FY25, bolstered by its strong order book and recent acquisitions. Over the medium term, the company also plans to expand its portfolio to include gas and water meters, thereby broadening its market presence in utilities.

Deploying Capital for Expansion
Kaynes Technology has been actively deploying capital to fuel its expansion plans. In 2023, the company raised Rs 1,400 crore through a qualified institutional placement (QIP). These funds have been allocated toward expanding its presence in both domestic and international markets. In January 2024, Kaynes acquired Digicom Electronics, a California-based EMS company, for $2.5 million. This acquisition marks Kaynes’ entry into the U.S. market, a key growth area for the company as it seeks to diversify its revenue streams.

Additionally, Kaynes acquired a minority stake in Mixx Technologies, an electronics manufacturing and PCB assembling services company, for $3 million. This acquisition is in line with its strategy to enhance its capabilities in PCB manufacturing, a key area of growth for the company.

In September 2024, Kaynes received cabinet approval to set up a semiconductor manufacturing plant in Gujarat, another significant step toward building a diversified electronics manufacturing portfolio. This new facility will allow Kaynes to tap into the growing demand for semiconductors, both in India and globally.

Strong Order Book and Growth Outlook
Kaynes Technology currently boasts an order book of over Rs 5,000 crore, with a book-to-bill ratio of 2.5x, offering strong growth visibility over the medium term. The management has reiterated its revenue guidance of Rs 3,400 crore for FY25, with an operating margin target of 15 percent. Over the longer term, Kaynes has set a revenue target of Rs 8,000 crore by FY28, of which 75 percent is expected to come from its core EMS business. The remaining 25 percent will be driven by growth in semiconductors, PCBs, smart meters, and the Kavach project (an indigenous safety system for railways).

The acquisition of Iskraemeco India is expected to be margin accretive over the medium term as Kaynes ramps up smart meter production and secures new orders. The company’s strategy of acquiring complementary businesses, deploying capital for capacity expansion, and entering new markets is poised to fuel its growth trajectory in the coming years.

Valuation and Investor Outlook
At its current market price, Kaynes Technology trades at an FY26 price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 71 times, with a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1.4x. While the company’s robust growth outlook is priced into the stock, investors may want to wait for better entry points given the elevated valuations. However, for long-term investors, Kaynes’ strong order book, aggressive expansion strategy, and growing presence in high-potential markets like smart meters and semiconductors make it a compelling play on India’s rapidly growing electronics manufacturing sector.

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NBFC Loan Sanctions Q1 FY2024: Gold Loans Dominate Amid Slowdown in Unsecured Personal Loans

NBFC Loan Sanctions Q1 FY2024: Gold Loans Dominate Amid Slowdown in Unsecured Personal Loans

The latest data from the Finance Industry Development Council (FIDC) reveals a significant shift in the lending practices of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) for the first quarter of FY2024. Gold loans have emerged as the dominant loan category, growing by 26% year-on-year to ₹79,218 crore. This rise in gold loan sanctions comes as NBFCs slowed their lending towards unsecured personal loans, which declined by 4% year-on-year due to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) tightening regulations on unsecured credit.

Key Highlights:
Surge in Gold Loans: Gold loans accounted for the largest share of loan sanctions by NBFCs, reflecting their increasing preference for secured lending amid a changing regulatory landscape. The 26% growth from ₹63,495 crore last year to ₹79,218 crore in Q1 FY2024 underscores the sector’s focus on gold-backed financing.

Decline in Personal Loans: Unsecured personal loans, previously a dominant segment, witnessed a decline of 4% during the same period. This drop can be attributed to the RBI’s November 2023 decision to increase the risk weight on unsecured consumer credit from 100% to 125%, effectively raising the cost of capital for NBFCs extending such loans. The higher risk weight led to a shift in strategy as NBFCs redirected their focus toward secured lending products like gold loans, which offer better risk-adjusted returns.

RBI’s Regulatory Scrutiny: The RBI has increased its vigilance on NBFCs, particularly regarding gold lending practices. During its onsite examinations, the central bank observed several irregularities, including the use of third-party agents for loan sourcing, valuation practices without customer presence, insufficient monitoring of loan end-use, and lack of transparency in gold auctions during defaults. In response, the RBI issued a stern warning, mandating corrective measures within three months to avoid potential regulatory action.

Rising Property and Housing Loans: Property loans experienced a healthy growth of 21% YoY, now ranking as the fourth-largest loan category sanctioned by NBFCs. Housing loans also continue to hold a significant share of the total NBFC loan portfolio. However, unsecured business loans, like personal loans, have seen a deceleration, influenced by the same risk weight increases implemented by the RBI.

Shift Towards Secured Lending: The regulatory changes have made unsecured lending more expensive for NBFCs, prompting them to reallocate capital towards safer, secured lending options such as gold loans. The RBI’s sectoral deployment data supports this trend, showing that the gold loan portfolio of banks surged by 41% in August 2023, becoming the second-fastest-growing loan segment after renewable energy projects.

Implications for NBFCs:
Focus on High-Yield Secured Loans: The sharp rise in gold loans highlights a strategic pivot by NBFCs toward high-yielding but secured assets. Gold loans, backed by collateral, provide a safer lending avenue with attractive yields, making them a preferred choice in the current regulatory environment.

Cost of Capital and Credit Risk: With increased risk weights on unsecured loans, NBFCs face a higher cost of capital in those segments, reducing their appetite for such products. Consequently, gold loans have emerged as a favorable alternative, offering a secured product with relatively lower credit risk.

Potential Regulatory Risks: While gold loans present a lucrative opportunity, NBFCs must address the regulatory concerns raised by the RBI. Non-compliance with corrective measures could lead to stricter regulatory oversight, higher penalties, or restrictions on lending, impacting overall business operations.

Sectoral Diversification: NBFCs are likely to continue diversifying their loan portfolios, focusing on secured lending products such as gold and property loans, while cautiously navigating the unsecured credit landscape.

Conclusion:
The gold loan segment is expected to remain a growth driver for NBFCs in the near term, as the regulatory environment continues to favor secured lending. However, NBFCs will need to remain vigilant in complying with RBI’s guidelines to avoid regulatory backlash, while also exploring opportunities in other secured lending sectors such as housing and property loans to balance their portfolios effectively.

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Equity Right Research: Kaynes Technology: Elevated Earnings Projections and Strategic Entry into OSAT Sector Enhance Value , Re-iterate BUY

Equity Right Research: Kaynes Technology: Elevated Earnings Projections and Strategic Entry into OSAT Sector Enhance Value , Re-iterate BUY

MCap: Rs 35,618 Cr; CMP: Rs5,564; TP: Rs7,963; Upside: 43%; Rating: BUY

Stock Data (as on 30 June,2024)
NIFTY :25,377
52 Week H/L (INR) :5,742/1,986
Market Cap (INR Cr) :35,046
Outstanding Shares (Crs) :6.40
Dividend Yield (%) :0.00%
NSE Code :KAYNES
BSE Code :543664
Absolute Returns (%)
3 Months :38.03%
6 Months :106.53%
1 year :157.61%
Shareholding Pattern (as on June 30,2024)
Promoters :57.83%
FIIs :14.27%
DIIs :17.88%
Public :10.03%
Financial Summary
Key Metrics FY24 FY25E FY26E
Net Revenue 1,805 2,996 4,195
YoY Growth % 60% 66% 40%
EBITDA 254 479 671
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.07% 16% 16%
PAT 183 298 433
YoY Growth % 92% 62.88% 45.24%
EPS (in INR) 28.68 46.57 67.64
ROE 7% 13% 18.50%

Valuation

We estimate revenue/ EBITDA /PAT growth of 66%/ 89%/ 63% in FY25E. PAT growth driven by healthy order book growth trend and high EBITDA margin profile guided by management(15-16%) in FY25. Factoring all the growth factors, we give buy rating on the stock with TP of 7,963 (171 TTM PE x FY25E 46 EPS).

About the stock

Kaynes Technology is engaged in the business of electronic manufacturing, offer end to end and IoT enabled solution, expertise in electronics system design and manufacturing (ESDM) services. It has three decades of experience in providing conceptual design, process engineering, integrated manufacturing and life cycle support. It serves various industries such as automotive, industrial, aerospace, defence, outer-space, nuclear, medical, railways, internet of things (IoT) and Information technology. Kaynes business vertical can be classified as follow:

OEM – Box Build: Kaynes specialize in delivering “Build to Print’ or ‘Build to specifications’ of complex box build, sub-systems and products across various industry verticals.

OEM – Turnkey Solution – Printed Circuit Board Assemblies (PCBA): Kaynes encompass electronic manufacturing of PCBA, cable harnesses, magnetics and plastics ranging from prototyping to product realization including mass manufacturing.

Original Design Manufacturing (ODM): Kaynes offers ODM services in smart metering technology, smart street lighting, BLDC technology, inverter technology, gallium nitride-based charging technology and IoT solutions for smart consumer appliances and devices.

Product engineering and IoT Solutions: Kaynes offer product engineering services include embedded design, firmware and software development, mechanical design. They also provide IoT solution such as cloud based services, IoT data analytics platform.

Growth Fuel Factors

  • Strong order book.
  • New business doors open coming soon –OSAT/PCB.
  • Government initiatives encourage foreign companies to enter in India.
  • Indian EMS industry represent growth of 41% CAGR by FY26.
  • Capacity expansion in existing business.
  • Highly outsourced by OEMs to EMS vendors.

Global economic outlook

The global economy achieved moderate growth rate of at 3.1% in 2023 compared to 3.2% in 2022. The various challenges such as geopolitical tension like conflict in Ukraine, higher inflation, monetary tightening by central banks, sluggish recovery in china and volatility in energy prices and food markets are contributed to slowdown in global economic growth. While advanced economy saw mixed results with US growing by 2.5% due to robust consumer spending but Eurozone lagging at 0.4% growth led by high energy price. Emerging market outperformed both the market at 4.3% growth rate driven by china’s reopening and India’s domestic demand.

According to the world economic outlook April 2024, the global economy is expected to grow at same run-rate of 3.2% during 2024 and 2025, mirroring to 2023. This forecast is supported by the expectation of continued disinflation and recovery for global economy. For developed economies, growth is projected to rise from 1.6% in 2023 to 1.7% and to 1.8% in 2025. While emerging markets and developing economies are expected to undergo a modest slowdown from 4.3% growth in 2023 to 4.2% growth in 2024 and 2025. Global inflation is forecasted to decline steadily from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025 as supply condition improve.

Source: Company’s MDA

Indian Economy Outlook

According to the National Statistical Office (NSO), India’s GDP growth stood at 8.2% in FY24 compared to 7.0% in FY23. The overall economic growth supported by strong domestic demand, push in capital expenditure from government, moderate inflation and stable interest rate. India’s index of industrial production report 5.8% growth rate in FY24 compared to 5.2% in previous year. This strong growth momentum is evident by the growth observed in industrial production data, robust GST collection, per capita income and increasing private capital expenditure.

India’s economy continues to expand in CY24 as GDP growth is forecasted at 7% according to the IMF’s July World Economic Outlook. This growth supported by robust domestic demand, government’s push for capital expenditure and favorable policy environment. The recent interim budget for FY2024-25 increase capex by 16.9% reflecting the strong commitment of the union government to boost economic growth from significant investment in infrastructure development. Various government initiatives like ‘Make in India’,’Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ and the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes supporting manufacturing sector and increasing domestic manufacturing.

India’s economic growth outlook appear strong despite challenges such as food inflation and cost pressures. This optimistic outlook supported by robust domestic demand, digital transformation and entrepreneurship. India aims to become 3rd largest economy reach GDP to US$ 5 Tn by CY27.

Source: Company MDA

Global Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) Industry

The global electronics manufacturing services (EMS) market was valued at US$ 539 bn in 2023 and is expected to reach around US$ 1,064 bn by 20233 with CAGR of 7.03% during 2024 to 2033. This growth is driven by the shift in in-house manufacturing to EMS vendor and rising demand for consumer electronics, industrial automation.

The future outlook for global EMS market is robust, with significant growth expected across various regions and industry segments. Asia-Pacific region such as china, Taiwan and Vietnam, dominates the EMS market because of lower maintenance costs, material availability, faster production, skilled labor. while Europe and North America are also expected to show substantial growth driven by advancement in automotive electronics, healthcare and industrial automation. Key trend for shaping the future of the EMS market include the integration of industry 4.0 technologies such as IoT, AI and automation.

Source: Syrma SGS MDA

Indian Electronic Manufacturing services (EMS) Industry

India’s EMS market is expanding rapidly from being a major importer of electronics to become key player in the global EMS market. As of 2023, India’s EMS market was valued at US$ 36 bn within that mobile phone and consumer electronics are highly weighted sector.

The outlook for India’s EMS industry is highly optimistic forecasted to reach US$ 135 bn by 2026 with a CAGR of 41.1%. This growth is anticipated to fueled by the increasing in outsourcing by original equipment manufactures (OEMs), decline in imported finished goods, growing demand of consumer electronics and rapidly growing EV sector particularly 2W,3W and 4W.

Indian government also aimed to expand electronic market and implemented some policies includes schemes like Promotion of Manufacturing of Electronics Components and Semiconductors (SPECS), Modified Electronic Manufacturing Clusters (EMC 2.0), Production Linked Incentives (PLI) and Phased Manufacturing Programme (PMP). Government incentivizing 20-25% of the capital expenditure through its M-SIPS schemes for electronic manufacturers. Additionally government allocate INR 76,000 crores for development of semiconductor and display manufacturing in India.

Indian EMS market is set for robust growth in the next decade. Aim to become leading manufacturing hub for electronic manufacturing as OEMs look to diversify their production bases away from china. Government initiatives like ‘Make in India’ and ‘PLI schemes’ will encourage both domestic and foreign companies to manufacture in India.

Key drivers for growth of the Indian EMS Industry

  • High Outsourcing by OEMs
  • Growing Demand of Electronics
  • Large Domestic Market
  • ‘China +1’ Strategy
  • Government Initiatives

Source: Avalon and Syrma SGS MDA

Global PCB Market Outlook

The printed circuit board assembly (PCBA) market is expected to grew at CAGR of 5% to reach valuation of US$ 145 Bn by the CY2032. This growth is attributed to factor such as rising demand for consumer electronics, automotive electronics and industrial automation and due to the rising expansion of Internet of Things (IoT). The key growth driver for PCBA and PCB is growing need for electronic devices in industries such as consumer electronics, automotive, healthcare and telecommunications.

Source: Kaynes MDA
https://exactitudeconsultancy.com/reports/38060/pcb-pcba-market/

Indian PCB Market Outlook

Indian PCB or PCBA market reached a valuation of US$ 5.4% Bn in CY2023. According to the IMARC group, the market is expected to reach US$ 21.3% Bn representing a CAGR of 16.4% during the period from 2023 to 2032. The rising demand for consumer electronics products, increasing application in electric vehicles and favorable government policy and schemes are the key factor driving the Indian PCB market.

Source: Kaynes MDA and
https://www.imarcgroup.com/indian-pcb-market

Company Overview

Kaynes Technology is engaged in the business of electronic manufacturing, offer end to end and IoT enabled solution, expertise in electronics system design and manufacturing (ESDM) services. It has three decades of experience in providing conceptual design, process engineering, integrated manufacturing and life cycle support. It serves various industries such as automotive, industrial, aerospace, defence, outer-space, nuclear, medical, railways, internet of things (IoT) and Information technology. Kaynes business vertical can be classified as follow:

OEM – Box Build: Kaynes specialize in delivering “Build to Print’ or ‘Build to specifications’ of complex box build, sub-systems and products across various industry verticals.

OEM – Turnkey Solution – Printed Circuit Board Assemblies (PCBA): Kaynes encompass electronic manufacturing of PCBA, cable harnesses, magnetics and plastics ranging from prototyping to product realization including mass manufacturing.

Original Design Manufacturing (ODM): Kaynes offers ODM services in smart metering technology, smart street lighting, BLDC technology, inverter technology, gallium nitride-based charging technology and IoT solutions for smart consumer appliances and devices.

Product engineering and IoT Solutions: Kaynes offer product engineering services include embedded design, firmware and software development, mechanical design. They also provide IoT solution such as cloud based services, IoT data analytics platform.

Diversified Product Portfolio

Kaynes offers a wide-ranging product portfolio having applications across industry verticals such as automotive, telecom, aerospace and defence, space, medical, IoT and industrial, each of which is individually growing. This in turn limits exposure to downturns associated with a particular vertical. It also ensures consistency of revenues across periods on account of customers serving different industry verticals with different business or industry cycles.

Long standing relationship with marquee customer base

Over the past three decades, Kaynes has established long-term relationships with well known customers across the industries it caters to. Kaynes has a diversified customer base and has served 350+ customers in 26 countries. Their continued success is, in part, due to customer-centric practices such as open book costing, internal and external audits, and direct shipments to end customers.

Manufacturing Facility

Kaynes currently operates through its nine advanced manufacturing facilities to undertake high mix and high-value products with variable or flexible volumes. Kaynes’ operations are complying with global standards with 12 global accreditations—most for an ESDM company in India. It has a dedicated research facility at Mysore, Bengaluru and Ahmedabad with a 75+ member R&D team

Share holding pattern

Company’s majority holding held by promoter (57.83%) followed by FIIs 14.27%, DIIs 17.88% and public 10.03% as of June 2024. Promoter holding has declined from 63.57% in Sep 2023 to 57.83% in Dec 2023 due to the dilution of fresh issue. whereas FIIs and DIIs has increased their holding. Public holding has been continuously decreasing from high of 16.48% in Dec 2022 to 10% in June 2024 represent high interest of big hand in the company.

Shareholding pattern Mar-23 Mar-24 Jun-24
Promoters 63.57% 57.83% 57.83%
FIIs 8.16% 14.19% 14.27%
DIIs 12.96% 18.36% 17.88%
Public 15.31% 9.61% 10.03%

Since the company listed ( Nov-2022) big spike seen in big shark holding such as FIIs and DIIs. FIIs holding has jump 67% from 8.53% holding in Dec 2022 to 14.27% holding in June 2024 and DIIs holding spike 56% from 11.43% holding to 17.88% holding during the same period. While public holding has declined 39% from 16.48% holding to 10% holding during the same period. This robust growth seen in big shark holding represent strong confidence and high growth potential in the business.

Shareholding pattern Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 45170 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24
Promoters 63.57% 63.57% 63.57% 63.57% 57.83% 57.83% 57.83%
FIIs 8.53% 8.16% 7.96% 9.90% 12.71% 14.19% 14.27%
DIIs 11.43% 12.96% 13.12% 15.58% 19.04% 18.36% 17.88%
Public 16.48% 15.31% 15.35% 10.94% 10.41% 9.61% 10.03%

Q1FY25 Results Update

Strong order book promise to fuel revenue growth ahead

Company’s order book jumped 68% YoY and 22% sequentially to reached 5,039 Cr in Q1FY25. Sequentially 22% growth in order book driven by increase in average order inflow per month by 48% QoQ to 476 Cr. This robust growth in order book led by strong demand across verticals specially industrial and EV, Aerospace, outer space and strategic electronics along includes railway segment.

Company has achieved sizable customer in aerospace, outer space and strategic medical electronic vertical will secured revenue growth in upcoming years.

New Business Updates

OSAT business door open soon; government approval in final stage

Company’s new investment in OSAT business is in the final stage of obtaining government approval. Company had already acquired land in the Gujarat where construction will start soon. Company expecting positive response in the OSAT business by FY26. Along with this HDI printed circuit board project going as per plan, in the final stage of land acquisition. Management expecting to post revenue in HDI printed circuit business by FY26.

Robust topline growth but margin slight down

Strong growth post in topline/bottom line due to industrial vertical but margin remain slight lower

During the quarter, revenue grew 70% YoY but QoQ tank by 21% to 504 Cr. strong growth in topline on YoY basis led by strong demand in industrial (includes EV), aerospace & strategic electronics verticals. Segment wise growth driven by Box build (up 145% YoY) and PCBA (up 46% YoY) while ODM and product engineering segment post negative growth by 66% and 58% YoY respectively.

Q1FY25 Q1FY24 YoY% Q4FY24 QoQ%
Net Revenue  504 297 70% 637 -21%
COGS 366 205.8 78% 479 -24%
Gross Profit 138 91.2 51% 158 -13%
Gross Margin% 27% 31% -11% 25% 10%
Employee Cost 33.5 24 40% 32 5%
Other expenses 37.2 28 33% 31 20%
EBITDA 67.3 39.2 72% 95 -29%
EBITDA Margin% 13.35% 13.20% 1% 14.91% -10%
Depreciation 8.4 5 68% 7 20%
EBIT 58.9 34.2 72% 88 -33%
EBIT Margin% 12% 12% 1% 14% -15%
Interest expense 28 11 155% 15 87%
Other Income 28.3 8 254% 29 -2%
PBT 59.2 31.2 90% 102 -42%
Total Tax 13.4 7.6 76% 21 -36%
PAT 45.8 23.6 94% 81 -43%
PAT Margin% 9% 8% 14% 13% -29%
EPS (Diluted) 7.2 4.1 76% 12.7 -43%
No. of shares 6.4 5.8 10% 6.4 0%

Business Mix

Revenue break up: Kaynes report a revenue of 1,805 Cr in FY24 with 37% CAGR during FY20-FY24. Industrial includes EV was key contributor with 48% mix followed by automotive at 29%, railways at 11%, IoI/IT at 7%, aerospace at 3% and medical at 3%. The Industrial vertical was key driver in the last 5 years and its mix has improved to 48% in FY24 vs 20% in FY19.

Segment wise revenue mix: Segment wise, OEM-PCBA contribute 55% of the revenue mix, followed by OEM-Box Build at 42%, IoT/IT at 2% and ODM at 1% in FY24. OEM-PCBA was key driver in the last five years, and its mix has improved to 55% in FY24 vs 52% in FY19.

Order book up 3.3x in last three years: Kaynes’ order book has grown by 3.3x from 1,517 in FY22 to 5,039 Cr in Q1FY25 during the last three years. This strong order book fuel the revenue visibility in the upcoming years. Automotive orders get 6-9 months in execution, and aerospace and railways get around two years. Weighted average is 1.5 years execution period.

Year End (March) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Q1FY25
Order Book 352 670 1,517 2,486 4,115 5,039
Change in O.B 318 847 969 1629 924
Revenue 368 421 706 1126 1805 2309

Focus on Widening client base to de-risk

Kaynes has de-risked its business by widening client base. Top 1 client contribute 26% of the business while top-5 and top-10 contribute 53% and 69% respectively. Top-5 and top-10 contribution rose to 53% and 69% in FY24 vs 37% and 51% in FY22 respectively. This trend prove the lower client concentration in the company’s business model.

Kaynes has long-standing relationships with its clients, and the average relationship is in the range of 9-10 years whereas industrial and railways clients are >10 years. In automotive, IJL (India Japan Lighting Pvt Ltd) is the top client while in the industrial vertical, the key customers are from global manufacturers of electronic instruments and electromechanical devices. In the railways vertical, Siemens and Hitachi are the key customers.

Peer Comparison

Kaynes has been one of the fastest growing horse in EMS players, recording revenue/EBITDA/PAT of 37/44/108% over FY20-24. Particularly in topline growth, Kaynes stand first at 37% CAGR followed by Syrma at 30%, Cyient DLM at 21% and Avalon at 6%. This growth momentum will continue in the coming years led by strong order book, industry tailwind and entrance in new business vertical.

 

Income statement 

Year End (March) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY29E
Net Revenue 368 421 706 1126 1,805 2,996 4,195 5,523 6,689 7,693
Growth YoY% 0% 14% 68% 59% 60% 66% 40% 32% 21% 15%
COGS 242 286 489 780 1,330 2,067 2,894 3,811 4,616 5,308
Gross Profit 127 135 217 346 475 929 1,300 1,712 2,074 2,385
Gross Margin% 34.36% 31.98% 30.70% 30.73% 26.32% 31.00% 31.00% 31.00% 31.00% 31.00%
Employee Cost 42 46 60 77 103 210 294 387 468 538
Other expenses 44 48 63 101 118 240 336 442 535 615
EBITDA 41 41 94 168 254 479 671 884 1,070 1,231
EBITDA Margin% 11.08% 9.72% 13.27% 14.95% 14.07% 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 16.00%
Depreciation 7 10 13 19 25 60 84 110 134 154
EBIT 34 31 81 150 229 419 587 773 936 1,077
EBIT Margin% 9% 7% 11% 13% 13% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%
Interest expense 23 24 26 35 53 52 52 52 52 52
Other Income 2 4 4 11 56 30 42 55 67 77
PBT 13 11 59 126 232 397 577 776 951 1,102
Total Tax 2 1 17 31 49 99 144 194 238 275
Tax rate% 17% 10% 29% 24% 21% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
PAT 11 10 42 95 183 298 433 582 714 826
PAT Margin% 3% 2% 6% 8% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11%
EPS 16.4 2.3 9 16.4 28.68 46.57 67.64 90.99 111.49 129.12
EPS Growth (%) 0% -86% 291% 82% 75% 62% 45% 35% 23% 16%

Balance Sheet

Year End (March) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Sources of funds
Equity Capital 7 8 47 58 64
Reserves 98 131 156 901 2,423
Total Shareholders Funds 104 139 203 959 2,487
Long term Debt 10 17 29 15 11
Short term Debt 113 122 140 121 295
Total Debt 122 140 170 136 306
Net Deferred Taxes 8 5 7 8 4
Other Non Current Liabilities 3 13 25 25 20
Total Sources of Funds 238 297 404 1,128 2,817
Application of Funds
Net Block 50 65 82 107 285
Goodwill 2 2 2 2 15
CWIP 12 13 8 29 76
Intangible assets 5 13 29 22 46
Non Current Investment 2 2 2 3 145
Other Non Current Asset 8 6 13 24 110
Total Non-Current Assets 79 100 136 188 677
Inventories 151 164 226 413 548
Debtors 95 122 198 227 355
Other Current Assets 35 19 41 105 151
Cash & Equivalents 12 14 22 486 1,525
Total Current Assets 294 319 486 1,231 2,579
Creditors 99 95 164 223 360
Other current Liabilities & Provns 35 28 55 68 79
Total Current Liabilities 134 123 219 291 439
Net Current Assets 160 196 268 940 2,140
Total Application of Funds 238 297 404 1,128 2,817

Cashflow Statement 

Year End (March) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Profit from operations 43 20 98 171 272
Adjustments:
Receivables 29 -28 -76 -29 -142
Inventory -29 -13 -63 -187 -135
Payables 16 9 92 87 145
Loans Advances -12 0 -29 -34 -23
Other WC items 0 21 1 1 1
Working capital changes 4 -11 -75 -162 -154
Interest paid 0 21 0 0 0
Direct taxes -2 -4 -2 -50 -48
Other operating items 0 1 0 0 0
Operating Cashflow 45 27 21 -41 70
Capex -31 -25 -42 -58 -383
Free cashflow 14 2 -21 -99 -313
Investments 22 1 -2 -435 -1,123
Investing Cashflow -9 -24 -44 -493 -1506
Proceeds from shares 0 1 0 660 1,344
Proceeds from borrowings 8 7 30 0 174
Repayment of borrowings -20 -12 0 -34 -4
Interest paid fin -24 -22 -26 -35 -53
Other financing items 0 26 23 -37 -32
Financing Cashflow -36 0 27 554 1429
Net Cashflow 0 3 4 20 -7

Ratio Analysis

Year End (March) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Profitability (%)
Gross Profit Margin 34% 32% 31% 31% 26%
EBITDA Margin 11% 10% 13% 15% 14%
EBIT Margin 9% 7% 11% 13% 13%
PBT Margin 4% 3% 8% 11% 13%
PAT Margin 3% 2% 6% 8% 10%
Return (%)
ROE 11% 7% 21% 10% 7%
ROCE 5% 3% 10% 8% 6%
Efficiency (x)
Total Asset Turnover 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6
Fixed Asset Turnover 7.3 6.5 8.6 10.5 6.3
Inventory Turnover 1.6 1.8 2.5 2.4 2.8
Debtor Turnover 3.9 3.9 4.4 5.3 6.2
Debtor days 93 104 101 73 71
Inventory days 225 206 167 191 148
Payables days 148 120 121 103 97
Cash conversion cycle (days) 170 190 147 160 122
Leverage
Debt/Equity 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.1
Debt/Assets 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
Debt/EBITDA 3.0 3.4 1.8 0.8 1.2
Debt/Capital 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1
CFO/Debt 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.2
Interest Coverage 1.5 1.3 3.1 4.3 4.3
Cash Ratio
Free Cashflow 14 2 -21 -99 -313
CFO/Total Assets 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
CFO/Total Debt 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.2
CFO/Capex -1.5 -1.1 -0.5 0.7 -0.2
Valuations
P/E (x) 58.81 100.41
P/BV (x) 5.8 7.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 43.5 252 122.3 82.6 54.77
Dividend Yield (%) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

 

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Fiscal Discipline in Focus: Government Plans Deficit Reduction by FY26

Government Expands Capex, Keeps Deficit in Check

Government Expands Capex, Keeps Deficit in Check

As of July 24, 2024, the central government’s fiscal deficit has decreased to ₹1.41 lakh crore, down from ₹1.54 lakh crore in the same period last year. This positive trend reflects the government’s ongoing commitment to fiscal prudence and responsible economic management.

This reduction in fiscal deficit to two primary factors: a moderate growth in tax revenues and controlled government spending, according to a recent analysis by financial services firm Anand Rathi. The fiscal deficit for April-July 2024 was at ₹2.8 lakh crore, representing 17.2% of the annual target, indicating better budget control than the previous year. This marks a significant improvement from the previous year when the deficit had reached ₹6.1 lakh crore during the same period.

Interestingly, government expenditure during these initial months has been more restrained compared to the previous year. Capital expenditure, in particular, has seen a notable decrease of 17.6% year-on-year. This cautious approach to spending suggests that the government is carefully balancing its growth initiatives with fiscal responsibility.

Personal income tax collections have been a notable strength in the current financial environment, demonstrating resilience and outperforming expectations. As the deadline for annual tax returns approached in July 2024, these collections surged by an impressive 64% compared to the same month last year. This strong showing has resulted in personal income tax revenues reaching 33% of the budgeted target for the fiscal year 2024-25, indicating a healthy pace of collection.

The corporate tax situation is more nuanced and multifaceted compared to other areas of tax revenue. After briefly showing signs of recovery in June 2024, corporate tax collections have once again turned negative. This fluctuation is partly attributed to ongoing tax refunds, which have impacted the net collection figures. The volatility in corporate tax revenues highlights the challenges faced by businesses and the need for continued economic support and reforms.

On a more positive note, indirect tax collections have shown improvement, particularly in the realm of customs duties. Customs duty collections have significantly rose, posting a 29% increase compared to the same period last year. This increase could be indicative of recovering international trade volumes or changes in import patterns.

While divestment receipts have remained stagnant, suggesting potential challenges in the government’s asset monetization plans, there’s been a substantial boost in non-tax revenues. These have surged by 70% year-on-year, providing a welcome cushion to the government’s overall revenue position. This increase in non-tax revenues could be attributed to various factors such as dividends from public sector enterprises, fees, and other miscellaneous sources.

Government expenditure for the initial quarter of the fiscal year has reached 27% of the annual budget allocation, indicating a gradual recovery in spending patterns. This figure provides insight into the pace of government expenditure and its alignment with annual budgetary plans. July 2024 saw a mixed picture, with monthly revenue expenditure decreasing by 14% year-on-year, while capital expenditure rebounded strongly with a 108% year-on-year growth.

Despite this recent rebound in capital spending, it’s important to note that overall capital expenditure for the first four months of the fiscal year remains 18% lower than the previous year. This slower pace of capital spending can be partially attributed to the implementation of the model code of conduct during the first two months of the year, coinciding with the general elections. The subsequent recovery in spending after the elections has been limited, as the government awaited the full-year budget announcement.

The government expenditure is expected to accelerate in the coming months. This anticipated increase is likely to be triggered by the release of funds following the Parliament’s approval of the finance bill. As budgetary allocations are formalized and disbursed, we can expect to see a pickup in both developmental and welfare spending.

A significant boost to the government’s fiscal position has come from an unexpected quarter – the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The government’s finances received a significant boost from the central bank’s unprecedented dividend payment, which amounted to ₹2.11 lakh crore. This windfall, combined with the strong performance of personal income tax collections, has created a more favorable fiscal environment. These positive developments may help offset potential shortfalls in other areas, particularly in divestment collections, which have yet to gain significant momentum this fiscal year.

The government’s ability to maintain this balance between fiscal prudence and necessary expenditure will be key to supporting India’s economic growth trajectory. Factors such as global economic conditions, domestic consumption patterns, and the pace of structural reforms will all play important roles in shaping the fiscal outcomes for the remainder of the year.

In conclusion, the latest fiscal data presents a picture of cautious optimism. While challenges remain, particularly in areas like corporate tax collections and divestment proceeds, the overall trend suggests that the government is making strides in its fiscal consolidation efforts. The coming months will be critical in determining whether this positive momentum can be sustained and translated into long-term economic benefits for the nation.

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E-commerce Boosts High-End Electronics Sales in India

E-commerce Boosts High-End Electronics Sales in India

In the first half of 2024, the Indian market witnessed a significant shift in consumer behaviour concerning the purchase of high-value items such as washing machines, air conditioners, laptops, and tablets. Traditionally, Indian consumers preferred to see, touch, feel, and be assured of these products in brick-and-mortar stores before making a purchase. However, recent data from GfK-NielsenIQ reveals that this trend is rapidly changing, with online sales of these products outpacing those in physical stores by a substantial margin.

According to the data, air conditioner (AC) sales online surged by 62% in value during the January-June 2024 period compared to the same period last year, while offline sales grew by only 30%. Similarly, washing machine sales saw a 15% increase in value online, with offline sales remaining flat. In the laptop segment, online sales grew by 7%, whereas offline sales declined by 3%. The trend was even more pronounced for tablets, where online purchases doubled in value, compared to an 18% growth in physical stores.

Industry experts have noted that the gap in sales growth between online and offline channels for these electronic products has never been this wide. Historically, online sales growth for such products was typically only 4-6 percentage points higher than offline sales, except during the Covid-19 pandemic when physical stores were forced to shut down. However, the current data indicates a much more significant divergence.

Anant Jain from GfK India noted a significant change in consumer behaviour. He observed that online shopping is no longer limited to entry-level products, with many customers now researching in stores but buying online for better deals and convenience. Additionally, Jain emphasized that the average selling prices for categories like ACs, washing machines, and laptops are relatively higher than other products, which has contributed to the overall growth in sales value through online channels.

The data also shows that overall sales of consumer electronic goods grew by 17% online during the January-June period, compared with a 12% growth in offline sales. Interestingly, while sales growth by volume—or the number of units sold—was two percentage points higher offline at 12%, the value growth in the online market was notably stronger. This indicates that consumers are increasingly purchasing more premium products through e-commerce platforms and direct-to-consumer channels offered by brands.

Satish NS, the president of electronics company Haier India, noted that the previous resistance to buying premium models online has significantly diminished. He observed that many younger consumers are now choosing to purchase high-value electronics online, foregoing the traditional “touch and feel” experience. However, Satish emphasized that for the vast majority of consumers, price remains the most critical factor influencing their purchasing decisions, even more so than convenience.

This shift in consumer behaviour is also evident in the smartphone market. There has been a noticeable trend towards buying premium models online, a departure from the previous preference for in-store purchases of high-end devices. The online market for smartphones saw a boost during the summer sales in the April-June quarter of 2024, a period when offline sales were adversely affected by severe heat waves that kept people indoors.

The rapid growth of online sales in the high-value electronics segment signals a broader transformation in the Indian retail landscape. As more consumers embrace e-commerce for purchasing premium products, the traditional dominance of brick-and-mortar stores is being challenged. The convenience of online shopping, coupled with attractive deals and a growing comfort level with purchasing expensive items without physically examining them, is reshaping the way Indian consumers approach buying electronics. The shift towards online purchases is expected to persist, narrowing the divide between digital and physical retail channels. In the coming years, this trend may potentially lead to e-commerce platforms becoming the dominant sales channel for consumer electronics.

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