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Kaynes Technology Acquires Iskraemeco India to Strengthen Presence in Smart Meters

Equity Right Research: Kaynes Technology: Elevated Earnings Projections and Strategic Entry into OSAT Sector Enhance Value , Re-iterate BUY

Equity Right Research: Kaynes Technology: Elevated Earnings Projections and Strategic Entry into OSAT Sector Enhance Value , Re-iterate BUY

MCap: Rs 35,618 Cr; CMP: Rs5,564; TP: Rs7,963; Upside: 43%; Rating: BUY

Stock Data (as on 30 June,2024)
NIFTY :25,377
52 Week H/L (INR) :5,742/1,986
Market Cap (INR Cr) :35,046
Outstanding Shares (Crs) :6.40
Dividend Yield (%) :0.00%
NSE Code :KAYNES
BSE Code :543664
Absolute Returns (%)
3 Months :38.03%
6 Months :106.53%
1 year :157.61%
Shareholding Pattern (as on June 30,2024)
Promoters :57.83%
FIIs :14.27%
DIIs :17.88%
Public :10.03%
Financial Summary
Key Metrics FY24 FY25E FY26E
Net Revenue 1,805 2,996 4,195
YoY Growth % 60% 66% 40%
EBITDA 254 479 671
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.07% 16% 16%
PAT 183 298 433
YoY Growth % 92% 62.88% 45.24%
EPS (in INR) 28.68 46.57 67.64
ROE 7% 13% 18.50%

Valuation

We estimate revenue/ EBITDA /PAT growth of 66%/ 89%/ 63% in FY25E. PAT growth driven by healthy order book growth trend and high EBITDA margin profile guided by management(15-16%) in FY25. Factoring all the growth factors, we give buy rating on the stock with TP of 7,963 (171 TTM PE x FY25E 46 EPS).

About the stock

Kaynes Technology is engaged in the business of electronic manufacturing, offer end to end and IoT enabled solution, expertise in electronics system design and manufacturing (ESDM) services. It has three decades of experience in providing conceptual design, process engineering, integrated manufacturing and life cycle support. It serves various industries such as automotive, industrial, aerospace, defence, outer-space, nuclear, medical, railways, internet of things (IoT) and Information technology. Kaynes business vertical can be classified as follow:

OEM – Box Build: Kaynes specialize in delivering “Build to Print’ or ‘Build to specifications’ of complex box build, sub-systems and products across various industry verticals.

OEM – Turnkey Solution – Printed Circuit Board Assemblies (PCBA): Kaynes encompass electronic manufacturing of PCBA, cable harnesses, magnetics and plastics ranging from prototyping to product realization including mass manufacturing.

Original Design Manufacturing (ODM): Kaynes offers ODM services in smart metering technology, smart street lighting, BLDC technology, inverter technology, gallium nitride-based charging technology and IoT solutions for smart consumer appliances and devices.

Product engineering and IoT Solutions: Kaynes offer product engineering services include embedded design, firmware and software development, mechanical design. They also provide IoT solution such as cloud based services, IoT data analytics platform.

Growth Fuel Factors

  • Strong order book.
  • New business doors open coming soon –OSAT/PCB.
  • Government initiatives encourage foreign companies to enter in India.
  • Indian EMS industry represent growth of 41% CAGR by FY26.
  • Capacity expansion in existing business.
  • Highly outsourced by OEMs to EMS vendors.

Global economic outlook

The global economy achieved moderate growth rate of at 3.1% in 2023 compared to 3.2% in 2022. The various challenges such as geopolitical tension like conflict in Ukraine, higher inflation, monetary tightening by central banks, sluggish recovery in china and volatility in energy prices and food markets are contributed to slowdown in global economic growth. While advanced economy saw mixed results with US growing by 2.5% due to robust consumer spending but Eurozone lagging at 0.4% growth led by high energy price. Emerging market outperformed both the market at 4.3% growth rate driven by china’s reopening and India’s domestic demand.

According to the world economic outlook April 2024, the global economy is expected to grow at same run-rate of 3.2% during 2024 and 2025, mirroring to 2023. This forecast is supported by the expectation of continued disinflation and recovery for global economy. For developed economies, growth is projected to rise from 1.6% in 2023 to 1.7% and to 1.8% in 2025. While emerging markets and developing economies are expected to undergo a modest slowdown from 4.3% growth in 2023 to 4.2% growth in 2024 and 2025. Global inflation is forecasted to decline steadily from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025 as supply condition improve.

Source: Company’s MDA

Indian Economy Outlook

According to the National Statistical Office (NSO), India’s GDP growth stood at 8.2% in FY24 compared to 7.0% in FY23. The overall economic growth supported by strong domestic demand, push in capital expenditure from government, moderate inflation and stable interest rate. India’s index of industrial production report 5.8% growth rate in FY24 compared to 5.2% in previous year. This strong growth momentum is evident by the growth observed in industrial production data, robust GST collection, per capita income and increasing private capital expenditure.

India’s economy continues to expand in CY24 as GDP growth is forecasted at 7% according to the IMF’s July World Economic Outlook. This growth supported by robust domestic demand, government’s push for capital expenditure and favorable policy environment. The recent interim budget for FY2024-25 increase capex by 16.9% reflecting the strong commitment of the union government to boost economic growth from significant investment in infrastructure development. Various government initiatives like ‘Make in India’,’Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ and the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes supporting manufacturing sector and increasing domestic manufacturing.

India’s economic growth outlook appear strong despite challenges such as food inflation and cost pressures. This optimistic outlook supported by robust domestic demand, digital transformation and entrepreneurship. India aims to become 3rd largest economy reach GDP to US$ 5 Tn by CY27.

Source: Company MDA

Global Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) Industry

The global electronics manufacturing services (EMS) market was valued at US$ 539 bn in 2023 and is expected to reach around US$ 1,064 bn by 20233 with CAGR of 7.03% during 2024 to 2033. This growth is driven by the shift in in-house manufacturing to EMS vendor and rising demand for consumer electronics, industrial automation.

The future outlook for global EMS market is robust, with significant growth expected across various regions and industry segments. Asia-Pacific region such as china, Taiwan and Vietnam, dominates the EMS market because of lower maintenance costs, material availability, faster production, skilled labor. while Europe and North America are also expected to show substantial growth driven by advancement in automotive electronics, healthcare and industrial automation. Key trend for shaping the future of the EMS market include the integration of industry 4.0 technologies such as IoT, AI and automation.

Source: Syrma SGS MDA

Indian Electronic Manufacturing services (EMS) Industry

India’s EMS market is expanding rapidly from being a major importer of electronics to become key player in the global EMS market. As of 2023, India’s EMS market was valued at US$ 36 bn within that mobile phone and consumer electronics are highly weighted sector.

The outlook for India’s EMS industry is highly optimistic forecasted to reach US$ 135 bn by 2026 with a CAGR of 41.1%. This growth is anticipated to fueled by the increasing in outsourcing by original equipment manufactures (OEMs), decline in imported finished goods, growing demand of consumer electronics and rapidly growing EV sector particularly 2W,3W and 4W.

Indian government also aimed to expand electronic market and implemented some policies includes schemes like Promotion of Manufacturing of Electronics Components and Semiconductors (SPECS), Modified Electronic Manufacturing Clusters (EMC 2.0), Production Linked Incentives (PLI) and Phased Manufacturing Programme (PMP). Government incentivizing 20-25% of the capital expenditure through its M-SIPS schemes for electronic manufacturers. Additionally government allocate INR 76,000 crores for development of semiconductor and display manufacturing in India.

Indian EMS market is set for robust growth in the next decade. Aim to become leading manufacturing hub for electronic manufacturing as OEMs look to diversify their production bases away from china. Government initiatives like ‘Make in India’ and ‘PLI schemes’ will encourage both domestic and foreign companies to manufacture in India.

Key drivers for growth of the Indian EMS Industry

  • High Outsourcing by OEMs
  • Growing Demand of Electronics
  • Large Domestic Market
  • ‘China +1’ Strategy
  • Government Initiatives

Source: Avalon and Syrma SGS MDA

Global PCB Market Outlook

The printed circuit board assembly (PCBA) market is expected to grew at CAGR of 5% to reach valuation of US$ 145 Bn by the CY2032. This growth is attributed to factor such as rising demand for consumer electronics, automotive electronics and industrial automation and due to the rising expansion of Internet of Things (IoT). The key growth driver for PCBA and PCB is growing need for electronic devices in industries such as consumer electronics, automotive, healthcare and telecommunications.

Source: Kaynes MDA
https://exactitudeconsultancy.com/reports/38060/pcb-pcba-market/

Indian PCB Market Outlook

Indian PCB or PCBA market reached a valuation of US$ 5.4% Bn in CY2023. According to the IMARC group, the market is expected to reach US$ 21.3% Bn representing a CAGR of 16.4% during the period from 2023 to 2032. The rising demand for consumer electronics products, increasing application in electric vehicles and favorable government policy and schemes are the key factor driving the Indian PCB market.

Source: Kaynes MDA and
https://www.imarcgroup.com/indian-pcb-market

Company Overview

Kaynes Technology is engaged in the business of electronic manufacturing, offer end to end and IoT enabled solution, expertise in electronics system design and manufacturing (ESDM) services. It has three decades of experience in providing conceptual design, process engineering, integrated manufacturing and life cycle support. It serves various industries such as automotive, industrial, aerospace, defence, outer-space, nuclear, medical, railways, internet of things (IoT) and Information technology. Kaynes business vertical can be classified as follow:

OEM – Box Build: Kaynes specialize in delivering “Build to Print’ or ‘Build to specifications’ of complex box build, sub-systems and products across various industry verticals.

OEM – Turnkey Solution – Printed Circuit Board Assemblies (PCBA): Kaynes encompass electronic manufacturing of PCBA, cable harnesses, magnetics and plastics ranging from prototyping to product realization including mass manufacturing.

Original Design Manufacturing (ODM): Kaynes offers ODM services in smart metering technology, smart street lighting, BLDC technology, inverter technology, gallium nitride-based charging technology and IoT solutions for smart consumer appliances and devices.

Product engineering and IoT Solutions: Kaynes offer product engineering services include embedded design, firmware and software development, mechanical design. They also provide IoT solution such as cloud based services, IoT data analytics platform.

Diversified Product Portfolio

Kaynes offers a wide-ranging product portfolio having applications across industry verticals such as automotive, telecom, aerospace and defence, space, medical, IoT and industrial, each of which is individually growing. This in turn limits exposure to downturns associated with a particular vertical. It also ensures consistency of revenues across periods on account of customers serving different industry verticals with different business or industry cycles.

Long standing relationship with marquee customer base

Over the past three decades, Kaynes has established long-term relationships with well known customers across the industries it caters to. Kaynes has a diversified customer base and has served 350+ customers in 26 countries. Their continued success is, in part, due to customer-centric practices such as open book costing, internal and external audits, and direct shipments to end customers.

Manufacturing Facility

Kaynes currently operates through its nine advanced manufacturing facilities to undertake high mix and high-value products with variable or flexible volumes. Kaynes’ operations are complying with global standards with 12 global accreditations—most for an ESDM company in India. It has a dedicated research facility at Mysore, Bengaluru and Ahmedabad with a 75+ member R&D team

Share holding pattern

Company’s majority holding held by promoter (57.83%) followed by FIIs 14.27%, DIIs 17.88% and public 10.03% as of June 2024. Promoter holding has declined from 63.57% in Sep 2023 to 57.83% in Dec 2023 due to the dilution of fresh issue. whereas FIIs and DIIs has increased their holding. Public holding has been continuously decreasing from high of 16.48% in Dec 2022 to 10% in June 2024 represent high interest of big hand in the company.

Shareholding pattern Mar-23 Mar-24 Jun-24
Promoters 63.57% 57.83% 57.83%
FIIs 8.16% 14.19% 14.27%
DIIs 12.96% 18.36% 17.88%
Public 15.31% 9.61% 10.03%

Since the company listed ( Nov-2022) big spike seen in big shark holding such as FIIs and DIIs. FIIs holding has jump 67% from 8.53% holding in Dec 2022 to 14.27% holding in June 2024 and DIIs holding spike 56% from 11.43% holding to 17.88% holding during the same period. While public holding has declined 39% from 16.48% holding to 10% holding during the same period. This robust growth seen in big shark holding represent strong confidence and high growth potential in the business.

Shareholding pattern Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 45170 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24
Promoters 63.57% 63.57% 63.57% 63.57% 57.83% 57.83% 57.83%
FIIs 8.53% 8.16% 7.96% 9.90% 12.71% 14.19% 14.27%
DIIs 11.43% 12.96% 13.12% 15.58% 19.04% 18.36% 17.88%
Public 16.48% 15.31% 15.35% 10.94% 10.41% 9.61% 10.03%

Q1FY25 Results Update

Strong order book promise to fuel revenue growth ahead

Company’s order book jumped 68% YoY and 22% sequentially to reached 5,039 Cr in Q1FY25. Sequentially 22% growth in order book driven by increase in average order inflow per month by 48% QoQ to 476 Cr. This robust growth in order book led by strong demand across verticals specially industrial and EV, Aerospace, outer space and strategic electronics along includes railway segment.

Company has achieved sizable customer in aerospace, outer space and strategic medical electronic vertical will secured revenue growth in upcoming years.

New Business Updates

OSAT business door open soon; government approval in final stage

Company’s new investment in OSAT business is in the final stage of obtaining government approval. Company had already acquired land in the Gujarat where construction will start soon. Company expecting positive response in the OSAT business by FY26. Along with this HDI printed circuit board project going as per plan, in the final stage of land acquisition. Management expecting to post revenue in HDI printed circuit business by FY26.

Robust topline growth but margin slight down

Strong growth post in topline/bottom line due to industrial vertical but margin remain slight lower

During the quarter, revenue grew 70% YoY but QoQ tank by 21% to 504 Cr. strong growth in topline on YoY basis led by strong demand in industrial (includes EV), aerospace & strategic electronics verticals. Segment wise growth driven by Box build (up 145% YoY) and PCBA (up 46% YoY) while ODM and product engineering segment post negative growth by 66% and 58% YoY respectively.

Q1FY25 Q1FY24 YoY% Q4FY24 QoQ%
Net Revenue  504 297 70% 637 -21%
COGS 366 205.8 78% 479 -24%
Gross Profit 138 91.2 51% 158 -13%
Gross Margin% 27% 31% -11% 25% 10%
Employee Cost 33.5 24 40% 32 5%
Other expenses 37.2 28 33% 31 20%
EBITDA 67.3 39.2 72% 95 -29%
EBITDA Margin% 13.35% 13.20% 1% 14.91% -10%
Depreciation 8.4 5 68% 7 20%
EBIT 58.9 34.2 72% 88 -33%
EBIT Margin% 12% 12% 1% 14% -15%
Interest expense 28 11 155% 15 87%
Other Income 28.3 8 254% 29 -2%
PBT 59.2 31.2 90% 102 -42%
Total Tax 13.4 7.6 76% 21 -36%
PAT 45.8 23.6 94% 81 -43%
PAT Margin% 9% 8% 14% 13% -29%
EPS (Diluted) 7.2 4.1 76% 12.7 -43%
No. of shares 6.4 5.8 10% 6.4 0%

Business Mix

Revenue break up: Kaynes report a revenue of 1,805 Cr in FY24 with 37% CAGR during FY20-FY24. Industrial includes EV was key contributor with 48% mix followed by automotive at 29%, railways at 11%, IoI/IT at 7%, aerospace at 3% and medical at 3%. The Industrial vertical was key driver in the last 5 years and its mix has improved to 48% in FY24 vs 20% in FY19.

Segment wise revenue mix: Segment wise, OEM-PCBA contribute 55% of the revenue mix, followed by OEM-Box Build at 42%, IoT/IT at 2% and ODM at 1% in FY24. OEM-PCBA was key driver in the last five years, and its mix has improved to 55% in FY24 vs 52% in FY19.

Order book up 3.3x in last three years: Kaynes’ order book has grown by 3.3x from 1,517 in FY22 to 5,039 Cr in Q1FY25 during the last three years. This strong order book fuel the revenue visibility in the upcoming years. Automotive orders get 6-9 months in execution, and aerospace and railways get around two years. Weighted average is 1.5 years execution period.

Year End (March) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Q1FY25
Order Book 352 670 1,517 2,486 4,115 5,039
Change in O.B 318 847 969 1629 924
Revenue 368 421 706 1126 1805 2309

Focus on Widening client base to de-risk

Kaynes has de-risked its business by widening client base. Top 1 client contribute 26% of the business while top-5 and top-10 contribute 53% and 69% respectively. Top-5 and top-10 contribution rose to 53% and 69% in FY24 vs 37% and 51% in FY22 respectively. This trend prove the lower client concentration in the company’s business model.

Kaynes has long-standing relationships with its clients, and the average relationship is in the range of 9-10 years whereas industrial and railways clients are >10 years. In automotive, IJL (India Japan Lighting Pvt Ltd) is the top client while in the industrial vertical, the key customers are from global manufacturers of electronic instruments and electromechanical devices. In the railways vertical, Siemens and Hitachi are the key customers.

Peer Comparison

Kaynes has been one of the fastest growing horse in EMS players, recording revenue/EBITDA/PAT of 37/44/108% over FY20-24. Particularly in topline growth, Kaynes stand first at 37% CAGR followed by Syrma at 30%, Cyient DLM at 21% and Avalon at 6%. This growth momentum will continue in the coming years led by strong order book, industry tailwind and entrance in new business vertical.

 

Income statement 

Year End (March) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E FY28E FY29E
Net Revenue 368 421 706 1126 1,805 2,996 4,195 5,523 6,689 7,693
Growth YoY% 0% 14% 68% 59% 60% 66% 40% 32% 21% 15%
COGS 242 286 489 780 1,330 2,067 2,894 3,811 4,616 5,308
Gross Profit 127 135 217 346 475 929 1,300 1,712 2,074 2,385
Gross Margin% 34.36% 31.98% 30.70% 30.73% 26.32% 31.00% 31.00% 31.00% 31.00% 31.00%
Employee Cost 42 46 60 77 103 210 294 387 468 538
Other expenses 44 48 63 101 118 240 336 442 535 615
EBITDA 41 41 94 168 254 479 671 884 1,070 1,231
EBITDA Margin% 11.08% 9.72% 13.27% 14.95% 14.07% 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 16.00%
Depreciation 7 10 13 19 25 60 84 110 134 154
EBIT 34 31 81 150 229 419 587 773 936 1,077
EBIT Margin% 9% 7% 11% 13% 13% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%
Interest expense 23 24 26 35 53 52 52 52 52 52
Other Income 2 4 4 11 56 30 42 55 67 77
PBT 13 11 59 126 232 397 577 776 951 1,102
Total Tax 2 1 17 31 49 99 144 194 238 275
Tax rate% 17% 10% 29% 24% 21% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
PAT 11 10 42 95 183 298 433 582 714 826
PAT Margin% 3% 2% 6% 8% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11%
EPS 16.4 2.3 9 16.4 28.68 46.57 67.64 90.99 111.49 129.12
EPS Growth (%) 0% -86% 291% 82% 75% 62% 45% 35% 23% 16%

Balance Sheet

Year End (March) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Sources of funds
Equity Capital 7 8 47 58 64
Reserves 98 131 156 901 2,423
Total Shareholders Funds 104 139 203 959 2,487
Long term Debt 10 17 29 15 11
Short term Debt 113 122 140 121 295
Total Debt 122 140 170 136 306
Net Deferred Taxes 8 5 7 8 4
Other Non Current Liabilities 3 13 25 25 20
Total Sources of Funds 238 297 404 1,128 2,817
Application of Funds
Net Block 50 65 82 107 285
Goodwill 2 2 2 2 15
CWIP 12 13 8 29 76
Intangible assets 5 13 29 22 46
Non Current Investment 2 2 2 3 145
Other Non Current Asset 8 6 13 24 110
Total Non-Current Assets 79 100 136 188 677
Inventories 151 164 226 413 548
Debtors 95 122 198 227 355
Other Current Assets 35 19 41 105 151
Cash & Equivalents 12 14 22 486 1,525
Total Current Assets 294 319 486 1,231 2,579
Creditors 99 95 164 223 360
Other current Liabilities & Provns 35 28 55 68 79
Total Current Liabilities 134 123 219 291 439
Net Current Assets 160 196 268 940 2,140
Total Application of Funds 238 297 404 1,128 2,817

Cashflow Statement 

Year End (March) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Profit from operations 43 20 98 171 272
Adjustments:
Receivables 29 -28 -76 -29 -142
Inventory -29 -13 -63 -187 -135
Payables 16 9 92 87 145
Loans Advances -12 0 -29 -34 -23
Other WC items 0 21 1 1 1
Working capital changes 4 -11 -75 -162 -154
Interest paid 0 21 0 0 0
Direct taxes -2 -4 -2 -50 -48
Other operating items 0 1 0 0 0
Operating Cashflow 45 27 21 -41 70
Capex -31 -25 -42 -58 -383
Free cashflow 14 2 -21 -99 -313
Investments 22 1 -2 -435 -1,123
Investing Cashflow -9 -24 -44 -493 -1506
Proceeds from shares 0 1 0 660 1,344
Proceeds from borrowings 8 7 30 0 174
Repayment of borrowings -20 -12 0 -34 -4
Interest paid fin -24 -22 -26 -35 -53
Other financing items 0 26 23 -37 -32
Financing Cashflow -36 0 27 554 1429
Net Cashflow 0 3 4 20 -7

Ratio Analysis

Year End (March) FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Profitability (%)
Gross Profit Margin 34% 32% 31% 31% 26%
EBITDA Margin 11% 10% 13% 15% 14%
EBIT Margin 9% 7% 11% 13% 13%
PBT Margin 4% 3% 8% 11% 13%
PAT Margin 3% 2% 6% 8% 10%
Return (%)
ROE 11% 7% 21% 10% 7%
ROCE 5% 3% 10% 8% 6%
Efficiency (x)
Total Asset Turnover 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6
Fixed Asset Turnover 7.3 6.5 8.6 10.5 6.3
Inventory Turnover 1.6 1.8 2.5 2.4 2.8
Debtor Turnover 3.9 3.9 4.4 5.3 6.2
Debtor days 93 104 101 73 71
Inventory days 225 206 167 191 148
Payables days 148 120 121 103 97
Cash conversion cycle (days) 170 190 147 160 122
Leverage
Debt/Equity 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.1
Debt/Assets 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
Debt/EBITDA 3.0 3.4 1.8 0.8 1.2
Debt/Capital 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1
CFO/Debt 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.2
Interest Coverage 1.5 1.3 3.1 4.3 4.3
Cash Ratio
Free Cashflow 14 2 -21 -99 -313
CFO/Total Assets 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
CFO/Total Debt 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.2
CFO/Capex -1.5 -1.1 -0.5 0.7 -0.2
Valuations
P/E (x) 58.81 100.41
P/BV (x) 5.8 7.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 43.5 252 122.3 82.6 54.77
Dividend Yield (%) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

 

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