Jio Set to Surpass Airtel in ARPU Growth!
Reliance Jio’s average revenue per user (ARPU) is projected to rise by 1.8% to ₹210 in the June quarter, outpacing Bharti Airtel’s growth of 1.6% to ₹249 as competition intensifies.
Summary:
Jio is expected to outpace Airtel in ARPU growth for Q1 FY26, with an anticipated 1.8% quarter-over-quarter increase to ₹210, while Airtel is projected to see a 1.6% rise to ₹249. This signals Jio’s competitive advantage in driving incremental revenue amid a maturing telecom market, bolstered by strong 5G adoption and robust subscriber additions.
India’s telecom sector is bracing for another wave of fierce competition, with recent projections from JM Financial suggesting that Reliance Jio may surpass Bharti Airtel in average revenue per user (ARPU) growth in the first quarter of FY26. The research firm anticipates that Jio’s ARPU will increase by 1.8% quarter-on-quarter to reach ₹210 in the quarter ending in June, while Airtel’s ARPU is expected to grow by 1.6% to ₹249.
These figures, although seemingly marginal, are of considerable importance in India’s hyper-competitive telecom industry, where ARPU is a key profitability metric and a proxy for consumer stickiness, pricing power, and overall service monetisation.
Jio’s Strategic Advantage
Jio’s ARPU growth highlights its aggressive expansion strategy. As India’s largest telecom operator by subscriber base, Jio has focused on delivering affordable, high-speed data to a massive user population, while also gradually migrating subscribers to premium data packs and 5G plans.
Over the past year, Jio has expanded its 5G services in major Indian cities and semi-urban areas, encouraging user upgrades to higher data plans. The integration of JioFiber, JioAirFiber, and its content platforms like JioCinema and JioTV has created strong cross-selling opportunities, boosting average revenue per user (ARPU). Analysts attribute Jio’s ARPU growth to its balanced pricing strategy, which appeals to both budget-conscious consumers and those seeking premium upgrades as they adopt 5G devices.
Airtel Remains Strong but Faces a Tougher Climb
Bharti Airtel, which is Jio’s nearest competitor, is anticipated to report an ARPU of ₹249 in Q1 FY26, indicating a sequential increase of 1.6%. Although Airtel’s ARPU remains higher than Jio’s in absolute figures, its growth trajectory is expected to slow down a bit.
Airtel has long benefited from a relatively premium user base, with higher postpaid penetration and strong traction in enterprise services, leading to a structurally higher ARPU compared to Jio. However, incremental growth may be more challenging for Airtel because its customers already pay comparatively higher tariffs, limiting headroom for sharp pricing increases.
Airtel’s strategy prioritises premium subscribers and quality service through network upgrades and a better customer experience. While this has fostered loyalty among higher-paying customers, it has slowed ARPU growth compared to Jio, which focuses on upselling entry-level and mid-tier users.
Industry in Transition
The ARPU growth story comes at a time when India’s telecom market is undergoing a transition from 4G to 5G, a move seen as critical to sustaining revenue growth in a maturing market where subscriber growth has plateaued.
For operators like Jio and Airtel, growth in Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is crucial to support their large investments in 5G and infrastructure. After significant spending in auctions and deployment, increasing ARPU is the next logical move. Analysts suggest that future ARPU growth will rely on tariff hikes, adoption of premium plans, and the development of 5G use cases such as gaming, IoT, and cloud services.
Regulatory Watch
The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) monitors tariff structures and service quality closely. While modest price increases are acceptable, excessive hikes may face regulatory scrutiny. Jio and Airtel balance affordable pricing with growth, but continued regulation is expected to keep ARPU increases fair for consumers.
Investor Perspective
From an investor standpoint, the projected ARPU trajectories reflect confidence in the sector’s resilience and growth amid high capital expenditure cycles. Jio’s anticipated 1.8% ARPU gain is being read positively, as it suggests more substantial revenue per user momentum on the back of widespread 5G adoption and subscriber upgrades.
Airtel, despite its high ARPU, faces concerns from investors about balancing growth and customer retention among price-sensitive users. As the ARPU gap between Jio and Airtel shrinks, analysts believe Jio might enhance its market leadership through pricing strategies and a robust service ecosystem.
What to Watch Ahead
The June quarter numbers, when officially reported, will offer deeper insights into how each operator is managing its user monetisation strategies in a cooling subscriber acquisition environment. Further, market watchers will closely examine how 5G adoption translates into new revenue streams beyond simply faster data, such as connected home services, AR/VR entertainment, and industrial IoT applications.
If Jio maintains its current ARPU momentum, it could strengthen its position as India’s telecom leader, using its diverse platform to boost per-user revenue. Meanwhile, Airtel must innovate premium offerings and enterprise partnerships to maintain its higher ARPU while achieving incremental growth. In a capital-intensive industry with thin margins, these ARPU changes can significantly impact cash flows and valuations. As the Indian telecom sector prepares for future growth, ARPU will be a key metric for analysts, investors, and regulators.
Conclusion
The competition for ARPU dominance in India’s telecom sector is still ongoing. As Jio positions itself to outpace Airtel in quarterly ARPU growth, the stage is set for a fierce race to monetise 5G investments while sustaining subscriber trust and competitive pricing. With consumer data consumption at record highs and next-generation services around the corner, the ARPU trends of FY26 could define who emerges strongest in India’s telecom story.
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