India’s year-end IPO blitz: risks, rewards and what to watch
India’s primary-market calendar has come alive. Industry bankers and exchanges expect roughly $8 billion of new equity to hit the market in the final quarter of 2025, with a concentrated wave of large offerings scheduled for October and November. The pipeline is anchored by two marquee transactions: Tata Capital (price band ₹310–₹326; ~₹15,500–₹15,512 crore issue, the largest IPO of 2025) and LG Electronics India (price band ₹1,080–₹1,140; ~₹11,607 crore OFS), both opening in early October. The frenetic schedule would make Q4 2025 one of the busiest IPO quarters in recent memory.
The headline deals — size, pricing and implied valuations
Tata Capital set a price band of ₹310–₹326 (announced September 29, 2025), implying an offer that will raise roughly ₹15,500 crore and a post-issue valuation near ₹1.38 lakh crore. The deal combines fresh equity and promoter sales and aims to open to retail subscription in early October.
LG Electronics India fixed a price band of ₹1,080–₹1,140 and an offer-for-sale of ~10.18 crore shares (15% stake), valuing the listed entity at roughly ₹77,000–₹78,000 crore and raising about ₹11,600 crore if priced at the top. The IPO opens October 7, 2025, and is structured as an OFS by the Korean parent.
Financial context and valuation metrics investors should model
Looking beyond headline sizes matters. For LG Electronics India, FY24 financials show revenue ~₹21,352 crore and net profit ~₹1,511 crore (FY2024), which implies a trailing P/E near ~51x at a ~₹77,400 crore market cap — a premium that demands material future earnings growth or margin expansion to justify. Tata Capital, a diversified NBFC with FY25 earnings that rose materially (Livemint reports PAT ~₹3,655 crore for FY25), will face scrutiny on multiples vs. listed NBFC peers and on embedded credit cycle risks. Investors must therefore triangulate price band, trailing earnings and forward guidance rather than rely on headline demand alone.
Why the wave? demand drivers and market plumbing
Several forces are amplifying the window: heavy mutual fund inflows into Indian equities, strong retail participation in 2025 IPOs, and improved dealer / merchant banker confidence after a string of successful listings that delivered double-digit listing gains (2025 listings averaged meaningful first-day pops). Bankers also point to a tactical calendar: corporates prefer listing windows before year-end for index inclusion and to use positive sentiment to maximise pricing. Domestic liquidity, relatively benign global rates in recent months and active primary-market desks at brokerages have combined to create an IPO “sweet spot.”
Risks — concentration, valuations and liquidity strain
A cluster of large offers over a short window creates three principal risks. First, allocation crowding: retail and institutional pockets are finite; multiple large asks can lead to softer subscription for later deals. Second, rich pricing: several marquee names are seeking premium multiples (as seen with LG’s ~51x trailing P/E), raising the possibility of muted listing returns if growth disappoints. Third, liquidity and secondary pressure: large OFS segments (promoter exits) can introduce supply into the market after listing, weighing on near-term performance. Finally, macro shocks — e.g., an abrupt global risk-off, higher rates or domestic political noise — could quickly reverse investor sentiment.
Rewards — why long-term investors may still care
For long-term, selective investors, the wave presents opportunities: listed access to high-quality franchisees (large retail finance platforms, premium consumer brands, technology-enabled firms) at entry points that may still offer multi-year compound returns if execution holds. Some IPOs are strategic for sector allocation — financials (Tata Capital) for balance-sheet play, consumer durables (LG) for secular demand and distribution scaling. Institutional investors can secure meaningful allocations at anchor stages, while retail investors can use phased participation or SIP-style exposure via small lots to manage debut volatility.
What investors and advisers should watch
* Implied multiples vs. peers: compute trailing and forward P/E, P/B and RoA/RoE for each IPO.
* Use of proceeds/ OFS nature: is capital going into growth (fresh equity) or does it primarily monetise existing shareholders? OFS-heavy deals can signal immediate sellability.
* Anchor demand and subscription timing: strong anchor book builds often presage robust institutional support.
* Underlying business metrics: Net interest margin and asset quality for finance issuers; gross margins, channel economics and working-capital cycle for consumer names.
* Post-listing lock-ups and promoter intent: understand when sizeable promoter stakes might re-enter the market.
Conclusion
India’s projected $8 billion year-end IPO pipeline is a signal of market confidence and domestic investor capacity. Yet success will be measured deal by deal: pricing discipline, real earnings delivery and the market’s appetite for concentrated supply will determine whether October–December 2025 becomes a celebrated theme or a cautionary calendar. For disciplined investors, careful valuation work and staged participation will be the prudent path through the busiest IPO stretch in months.
The image added is for representation purposes only
