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Mumbai Property Market Soars to New Record in 2024

Mumbai Property Market Soars to New Record in 2024

Mumbai Property Market Soars to New Record in 2024

Mumbai has been considered as India’s largest and most expensive market for a long time. In 2024, it again proved this statement right by achieving its best-ever annual performance in terms of deal registrations as well as stamp duty collection. This strong demand growth is boosted by the stable economic conditions and also persistent confidence among buyers.

In the year 2024, Mumbai hit a record of more than 1,41,000 registrations. It made the year 2024 as the best year for property sales in both primary and secondary markets. It surpassed the previous year’s record by 11 percent.

According to the data of the Inspector General of Registration (IGR) and Controller of Stamps, Maharashtra, the total stamp duty collection increased by 12 percent which accounts to Rs. 12,138 crore.

Significance of Mumbai’s Property market
Mumbai’s real estate market continues to exhibit strong resilience and adaptability with the changing times. The consistent rise in registrations and increasing revenue indicate strong demand. Its robust demand is particularly seen more for premium and spacious houses. These preferences indicate the homebuyers change in preference towards quality and value. The strong performance of Mumbai’s real estate market underlines it as a key driver of economic activity and also an interesting long-term investment opportunity.

The market recorded a consistent rise in property registration at higher value in Mumbai. In the month of December, the property registration for real estates priced at Rs 2 crore and above observed a surge of 23 percent compared to its record of 18 percent in the month of December 2023. The real estate priced under Rs. 50 lakh recorded a fall to 25 percent of share compared to previous share of 30 percent. It indicates a shift in homebuyers preferences towards higher-value real estate segments. A strong inclination is observed towards premium properties with a total purchase of 2,879 properties.

The preference for homes having an area of 1,000-2,000 sq ft. increased rapidly to 12 percent of shares compared to earlier shares accounts to only 8 percent. While, the shares for homes above 2,000 sq ft recorded stable growth of 2 percent. In contrast to this, homes till 500 sq ft recorded a sharp fall in registrations which accounts to 51 percent compared to the previous shares of 35 percent. This change in preference in real-estate area-wise signals an increase in preference for spacious homes.

The real estate developers used this strong sales opportunities to capitalise by launching new supply in the market. It resulted in the launch of 96,470 new units in 2024 making the highest volume launch since 2024. It observed a 4 percent year-on-year growth. While, the average residential prices surge by 5 percent year-on-year surpassing the year 2023. The continued demand for real estate kept the price growth and sales momentum steady.

In the month of December, around 12,363 property registrations contributed Rs. 1,131 crore of the revenue to the state government of Maharashtra.

Reasons for the best performance
The report of Knight Frank India on the India Real Estate- Office and Residential Market (July-December 2024) states that Mumbai is leading in terms of residential sales among all the metro cities.

Mumbai is considered as the financial hub of India with strong economic growth in finance, commerce and industry. It is supported by infrastructural projects such as the Mumbai coastal Road, Mumbai Trans Harbour Link (MTHL) and Metro Line 3.

The development in the urban landscape due to these infrastructural projects undertaken in Mumbai are acting as a significant key in the progress of the property market. The infrastructural projects help in increasing connectivity between the places. It has boosted the demand in real estate as more and more homebuyers are participating to take advantage of this developed connectivity. The strong government’s capex in these projects has supported increased real estate activities, influencing price dynamics and also in new real estate ventures.
The first half-yearly sales of 2024 was the highest half-yearly since 2012. The second half-yearly sales for the year 2024 recorded an increase in sales by 4 percent compared to the first half-yearly sales of 2024. The reasons for robust sales were festive seasons such as Navratri, Dussehra and Diwali. These festivals for years are reasons for the increase in purchases of real estate. Also, it was further boosted by new launches and attractive payment plans surged the sales activity.

Price dynamics in the 2024
Mumbai’s residential properties rates increased by 5 percent. It recorded the highest average price per square foot of Rs. 8,277. It is the highest among the 8 major cities in India. While, Central Mumbai and South Mumbai recorded the highest residential price surged of 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively.

The current property market in Mumbai is in a strong position to take advantage of this situation and keep on sustaining the growth path during the 2025 as well.

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Repco home Q2FY25: Strong QoQ Surge in Sanctions and Disbursements

Repco home Q2FY25: Strong QoQ Surge in Sanctions and Disbursements

Company Name: Repco Home Finance Ltd | NSE Code: REPCOHOME | BSE Code: 535322 | 52 Week high/low:595 / 366 | CMP: INR 462 | Mcap: INR 2,904 Cr | P/BV – 1.00

About the stock
➡️Repco home finance is registered housing finance company offer individual home loan and loan against property (LAP). Companies target market is Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities and has 48% loan book to salaried segment and rest to non-salaried. Company have regional concentration in south and beyond south its presence in Maharashtra, Gujarat, MP, Orissa, Rajasthan. As of Q4FY24, company have 184 branch and 43 satellite.

Single digit loan book growth while borrowing jump 14% YoY
➡️Repco’s loan book grew 8% YoY (+2% QoQ) to 13,964 Cr led by growth in home loan product. Home loan composition in overall book decline to 74% in Q2FY25 from 76% in Q2FY24 whereas home equity grown to 26% from 24% in Q2FY24.

➡️Sanctions grew 8% YoY while jump 27% QoQ to 926 Cr. While disbursement surged 9% YoY and 27% QoQ to 867 Cr. Sanctions and disbursement deliver solid performance on QoQ basis.

➡️Borrowing growth is double than loan book growth at 14% YoY (+5% QoQ) to 11,463 Cr. Repco has funding mix from National housing bank, commercial bank and repco bank. Commercial banks have 81% weight in overall borrowing.

Book Growth (As on in Cr)  Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%)
Loan Book 13,964 12,922 8% 13,701 2%
Disbursement  867 797 9% 680 27%
Sanctions 926 860 8% 727 27%
Borrowing  11,463 10,047 14% 10,914 5%

NII down on contraction in NIMs and muted book growth; PAT boom on lower provision
➡️Interest income grew 7% YoY (+1% QoQ) to 405 Cr due to surge in yield by 30 bps YoY and loan book expansion. NII down 2% YoY and 1% QoQ to 165 Cr on contraction in NIMs by 30 bps due to higher CoF. PPOP grow modest by 2% YoY (-1% QoQ) to 137 Cr due to decline in topline and higher OpEx growth. PAT boom 15% YoY (+7% QoQ) to 112 Cr on lower provision by 1101%.

Years (in Cr) Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%) Commentry
Interest income  405.11 376.97 7% 400.71 1%
Interest expenses 239.56 207.46 15% 232.98 3%
NII 165.55 169.51 -2% 167.73 -1% led by drop in NIMs and muted book growth
Other income  22.87 6.94 230% 15.54 47%
Total Net income 188.42 176.45 7% 183.27 3%
Employee expenses 28.35 25.45 11% 29.05 -2%
Other OpEx 23.33 17.18 36% 16.18 44%
Total Opex  51.68 42.63 21% 45.23 14%
PPOP 136.74 133.82 2% 138.04 -1% Modest growth on sluggish topline 
Provision -16.02 1.6 -1101% 1.44 -1213%
PBT 152.76 132.22 16% 136.6 12%
Tax expenses  40.25 34.12 18% 31.16 29%
Tax rate  26% 26% 2% 23% 16%
PAT  112.51 98.1 15% 105.44 7% PAT boom on lower provision and higher other income
PAT% 26% 26% 3% 25% 4%
EPS (in Rs) 17.98 15.68 15% 16.85 7%
No. of equity shares  6 6 0% 6 0%

Asset quality improved – GNPA /NPA down (90 bps/60 bps YoY)
➡️During the quarter, asset quality has improved with the decreased in GNPA and NNPA. GNPA down 90 bps YoY and 30 bps QoQ to stood at 4% but still higher than its peers. While NNPA down 60 bps YoY and 10 bps QoQ to stood at 1.6%. Based on observation salaried segment has lower GNPA (2.1%) while non-salaried has higher GNPA (5.7%).

Asset Quality Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (bps) Q1FY25 QoQ (bps)
GNPA 4 4.9 -90 4.3 -30
NNPA 1.6 2.2 -60 1.7 -10

Valuation and key ratio
➡️Currently the stock is trading at 1.00x its book value which is lowest compare it peers and industry median P/BV stood at 2.41x. Company’s NIMs margin has reduced by 30 bps YoY and remain stable QoQ stood at 5.1%. Yield on loan jump 30 bps YoY to stood at 12.1 while CoF grew 40 bps YoY to stood at 8.8%. ROE down 10 bps YoY to 16% while ROA jump 20 bps YoY to 3.3%. company’s capital position remains very strong as CRAR stood at 33.98% which above than the RBI guidelines.

Key metrics  Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (bps) Q1FY25 QoQ (bps)
Yield 12.1 11.8 30 12 10
CoF 8.8 8.4 40 8.6 20
Spread 3.4 3.4 0 3.4 0
NIMs 5.1 5.4 -30 5.1 0
ROA 3.3 3.1 20 3.1 20
ROE 16 16.1 -10 16.3 -30

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Indian Housing Market Booms with Steady Price Growth

Indian Housing Market Booms with Steady Price Growth

The residential real estate market in major Indian cities is performing well, supported by positive feelings among homebuyers and steady demand. A joint study by CREDAI, Colliers, and Liases Foras revealed that housing prices in the top eight cities in India rose by 3% in the June quarter, continuing a trend of steady growth for the fourth quarter in a row. In the last year, housing prices on average have increased by 12%. Delhi-NCR saw the highest yearly price increase at 30%, with Bengaluru following.

Despite the rise in prices, the overall number of unsold homes has remained stable on a yearly basis, with a slight decrease in unsold homes from the previous quarter due to strong sales. Kolkata had the largest drop in unsold inventory, with a 5% decline, followed by Pune with a 3% decrease. As of the end of June, over 1 million housing units were available for sale across the primary markets in these eight cities, with the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) accounting for almost 40% of the total unsold inventory. While the number of unsold units in Hyderabad and Bengaluru increased over time, there was a slight decline in these cities on a quarterly basis.

As the festive season approaches, real estate developers are expected to be careful with new project launches and managing their existing housing stock, especially in key residential areas. President of CREDAI National, Boman Irani, noted that the Indian real estate market has been in a strong phase recently. This growth is shown not only by the high number of transactions but also by the positive sentiment towards real estate as a preferred investment option. He mentioned that this has directly impacted housing prices, indicating strong demand and a shift towards real estate as an asset class. He expects this trend to continue, especially with the upcoming festive season, the government’s focus on infrastructure, and a stable lending environment. These factors could further affect housing prices and unsold inventory levels.

CEO of Colliers India, Badal Yagnik, highlighted that demand for housing has remained strong in recent quarters. He attributed this to stable interest rates and supportive budget measures, which have boosted the housing market. He noted that average housing prices have consistently grown at a double-digit rate annually, with a 12% increase in the second quarter of 2024. Yagnik is optimistic about a strong performance for the housing market in 2024, particularly with the festive season expected to boost sales and new project launches.

Pankaj Kapoor, Managing Director of Liases Foras, observed that housing sales in Indian cities have continued to grow despite rising prices. The current quarter also saw a significant 33% increase in new launches in the affordable housing segment. The growth in sales and new launches in the NCR region suggests that the market will likely continue to expand.
Delhi-NCR leading with a 16% rise in housing prices, among the eight cities from the previous quarter. Bengaluru also experienced significant price growth, with average housing prices crossing Rs 11,000 per square foot during the quarter, marking an 8% increase from the previous quarter.

Excluding the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), all the cities reviewed experienced a decrease in unsold inventory levels of up to 5% on a quarterly basis. Although MMR saw strong sales during the period, a significant number of new project launches led to a slight increase in unsold units. On an annual basis, Pune saw the largest drop in unsold inventory, with a 13% decrease. Other cities like Ahmedabad, Chennai, and Kolkata also saw significant annual declines in unsold inventory, ranging from 6% to 8%.

Overall, the residential real estate market in major Indian cities is expected to maintain its growth momentum, driven by strong demand, positive buyer sentiment, and the upcoming festive season, which is likely to boost sales and new project launches.

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Robust Profitability and Asset Quality Improvements Highlight Repco Home Finance's Q1 FY25

Robust Profitability and Asset Quality Improvements Highlight Repco Home Finance’s Q1 FY25

Repco Home Finance’s Q1 FY25 performance shows robust growth and improved financial metrics across various segments.

The company’s credit book grew by 8.3% year-over-year to Rs. 13,701 crores, with AUM reaching Rs. 13,513 crores as of March 31, 2024. Credit sanctions increased slightly by 0.2% to Rs. 727 crores, while disbursements slightly decreased to Rs. 680 crores.

Total income surged by 13.6% to Rs. 416 crores, with NII growing by 8% to Rs. 175 crores. Net profits showed significant advancement, rising by 18% to Rs. 105 crores. The company maintained a solid loan spread of 3.4%.

KEY INDICATORS FOR Q1 FY25: (Figures in Rs. million)

METRICS Q1 FY25 Q1 FY24 GROWTH %
Sanctions 7,272 7,258 0.2%
Disbursements 6,804 6,843 -0.6%
Net Interest Income 1,749 1,619 8.0%
Operating Revenue 4,078 3,645 11.9%
PBT 1,366 1,198 14.0%
PAT 1,054 891 18.3%

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE – Q O Q:

Particulars Units Q4 FY24 Q1 FY25
Sanctions Rs. Mn 9,777 7,272
Disbursements Rs. Mn 8,946 6,804
Net Interest Income Rs. Mn 1,723 1,749
PAT Rs. Mn 1,081 1,054
NIM % 5.1 5.1
Yield on Assets % 11.7 12.0
Cost of Funds % 8.3 8.6
Spread % 3.4 3.4
Return on Assets % 3.2 3.1
Return on Equity % 16.5 16.3

 

Profitability metrics improved, with return on assets increasing to 3.1% from 2.8% and return on equity rising to 16.3% from 15.8%. The credit portfolio remained diversified, with non-salaried segments accounting for 51.6% and salaried segments for 48.4%. Housing loans comprised 74.3% of the outstanding loan book, while home equity products made up 25.7%.

Income & Earning Growth QoQ: (Amt in Rs. Mn)

Metrics Q1 FY24 Q4 FY24 Q1 FY25
Income from Operations 3,645 3,926 4,078
NII 1,619 1,723 1,749
Net Profit 891 1,081 1,054
Net Worth 24,050 26,771 27,709

 

Asset quality showed improvement, with GNPA decreasing to Rs. 583 crores from Rs. 695 crores year-over-year, although slightly up from Rs. 552 crores in the previous quarter. The GNPA ratio improved to 4.25% from 5.5% year-over-year, while the NNPA ratio decreased to 1.7% from 2.8%. The company maintained strong provision coverage, with expected credit loss provisions at Rs. 519 crores or 3.8% of total loan assets.

Asset Book: (Amt in Rs. Mn)

Type Q1 FY24 Q4 FY24 Q1 FY25
Sanction 7258 9777 7272
Disbursements 6843 8946 6804
Loan Book

1.       Salaried

2.       Non salaried

126554 135134 137011
51.8 51.4 51.6
48.2 48.6 48.4
Mix of Loan Portfolio

1.       Home Loan

2.       Home Equity

76.9 74.7 74.3
23.1 25.3 25.7

ECL PROVISION (Amt in Rs Mn):

Particulars Jun 23 Mar 24 Jun 24
Gross Stage 3 6947 5516 5826
% portfolio Stage 3 5.5% 4.1% 4.3%
 ECL Provision  Stage 3 3571 33597 3600
 Net Stage 3 3376 1918 2226
Coverage ratio Stage 3 51.4% 65.2% 61.8%
Gross Stage 1 & 2 119607 129618 131185
% portfolio in Stage 1 & 2 94.5% 95.9% 95.7%
Total ECL Provision 5240 5179 5193

Repco Finance maintained a robust capital position with a capital adequacy ratio of 34%, well above the regulatory requirement of 15%. The company’s distribution network expanded to 181 branches and 42 satellite centers across 13 states and union territories.

Profitability Ratios: (Amt in Rs. Mn)

Metric Q1 FY24 Q4 FY24 Q1 FY25
Net Interest Margin 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%
Spread 3.3% 3.3% 3.4%
Return on Equity 15.1% 16.5% 16.3%
Return on Assets 2.8% 3.2% 3.1%

This comprehensive improvement in growth, asset quality, and profitability metrics positions Repco Home Finance well for sustained performance in FY25, despite potential market challenges such as elections and heatwaves. The company’s focus on retail lending in both housing and home equity segments, coupled with a strong capital base, provides a solid foundation for navigating the evolving financial landscape.

Quarterly Performance Analysis:

Repco demonstrated strong execution in Q1 FY25. The company’s credit book grew by 8.3% year over year to Rs. 13,701 crores, while total income surged by 13.6% to Rs. 416 crores. Net interest income increased by 8% to Rs. 175 crores, and net profit showed significant improvement, rising by 18% to Rs. 105 crores. The company maintained a solid loan spread of 3.4%. Asset quality improved, with the GNPA ratio decreasing to 4.25% from 5.5% year over year, despite a slight increase in the GNPA amount due to factors like elections and heatwaves. Profitability metrics also improved, with return on assets increasing to 3.1% and return on equity rising to 16.3%. The loan portfolio remained diversified between non-salaried (51.6%) and salaried (48.4%) segments, with housing loans comprising 74.3% of the outstanding loan book. Repco Home Finance maintained a strong capital position with a capital adequacy ratio of 34%, well above the regulatory requirement. These results indicate robust growth and improved financial metrics across various segments, positioning the company well for the financial year despite potential market challenges.

In the transition from Q4 FY24 to Q1 FY25, Repco Home Finance experienced some changes in its financial metrics. Loan sanctions decreased from Rs. 9,777 million to Rs. 7,272 million, while disbursements also declined from Rs. 8,946 million to Rs. 6,804 million. However, the company’s Net Interest Income slightly increased from Rs. 1,723 million to Rs. 1,749 million. Profit After Tax (PAT) saw a notable decline from Rs. 1,081 million to Rs. 1,054 million. The Net Interest Margin (NIM) remained stable at 5.1%. The Yield on Assets improved from 11.7% to 12.0%, while the Cost of Funds increased from 8.3% to 8.6%. Despite these changes, the company maintained its spread at 3.4%. Profitability measures showed a slight decrease, with Return on Assets dipping from 3.2% to 3.1% and Return on Equity declining from 16.5% to 16.3%. These figures suggest that while Repco Home Finance faced some challenges in loan growth, it managed to maintain relatively stable performance in terms of interest income and overall profitability.

 

Net Sales increased by 11.89% from Rs. 364.48 crore in June 2023 to Rs. 407.83 crore in June 2024. Quarterly Net Profit increased by 17.91% from Rs. 95.44 crore in June 2023 to Rs. 112.53 crore in June 2024. EBITDA increased by 14.38% from Rs. 326.38 crore in June 2023 to Rs. 373.32 crore in June 2024. Repco Home’s EPS grew from Rs. 15.26 in June 2023 to Rs. 17.99 in June 2024.

Industry Overview:

The global economy remains strong, with steady growth and inflation gradually returning to targeted levels. Although risks persist, such as potential price surges due to geopolitical tensions in regions like Ukraine and Gaza, and ongoing core inflation driven by tight labor markets, the overall global outlook remains relatively balanced. Global GDP is projected to grow by 3.1% in FY24 and 3.2% in FY25, while global headline inflation is expected to decrease from 6.9% in FY23 to 5% in FY24, and further to 3.4% in FY25. However, differences in disinflation rates across major economies may lead to currency fluctuations, affecting financial sectors. Additionally, high interest rates may have a more pronounced cooling effect than anticipated, potentially leading to financial stress as fixed-rate mortgages reset and households struggle with high debt levels.

India continues to be one of the fastest-growing economies globally, with an estimated GDP growth of 8.2% for FY24, up from 7% in the previous year. The IMF projects a growth rate of 6.8% for FY25, driven by public investment and strong domestic demand. Contributing factors include high capacity utilization in manufacturing, government capital expenditure, FDI inflows, and strong financial and corporate sector balance sheets, which are expected to support a positive economic cycle. Digitalization initiatives are expected to enhance formalization, financial inclusion, and economic opportunities, contributing to India’s sustained rapid growth. India’s large and young population offers opportunities for growth, employment, and consumption-driven expansion, with investments in education and skill development being crucial for inclusive progress. However, challenges persist, such as geopolitical tensions, volatility in global financial markets, geo-economic fragmentation, and extreme weather events, all of which pose risks to the economic outlook. To mitigate these risks, ensuring resilience through the diversification of trade partners and strengthening domestic capabilities will be critical. Contributing factors include a decline in rural consumption due to an uneven monsoon and crop yield in FY24, as well as a potential slowdown in government capital expenditure early in FY25 ahead of the general elections. Geopolitical tensions and financial market volatility continue to pose risks to the inflation outlook, with the Reserve Bank of India projecting CPI inflation at 4.5% for FY25.

Asset Quality:

The asset quality of Repco Home Finance has shown a mixed trend over the past year, as reflected in both the graph and the provided data. The Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) ratio has generally improved, decreasing from 5.5% in June 2023 to 4.3% in June 2024, despite a slight uptick from the March 2024 low of 4.1%. In absolute terms, GNPA amounted to Rs. 583 crores as of June 30, 2024, down from Rs. 695 crores a year earlier, but up from Rs. 552 crores at the end of March 2024. This marginal increase was attributed to the impact of national elections and prevailing heatwaves during the quarter.

ECL PROVISION (Amt in Rs Mn):

Particulars Jun 23 Mar 24 Jun 24
Gross Stage 3 6947 5516 5826
% portfolio Stage 3 5.5% 4.1% 4.3%
 ECL Provision  Stage 3 3571 33597 3600
 Net Stage 3 3376 1918 2226
Coverage ratio Stage 3 51.4% 65.2% 61.8%
Gross Stage 1 & 2 119607 129618 131185
% portfolio in Stage 1 & 2 94.5% 95.9% 95.7%
Total ECL Provision 5240 5179 5193

SECTOR WISE MOVEMENT (Amt in Rs. Mn):

Particulars Jun 24 Jun 23
  AUM % AUM %
Stage 1 1,15,222 84.0% 1,01,622 80.3%
Stage 2 15,963 11.7% 17,985 14.2%
Stage 3 5,826 4.3% 6,947 5.5%
Grand Total 1,37,011 100.0% 1,26,554 100.0%

 

Similarly, the Net Non-Performing Assets (NNPA) ratio has shown improvement, declining from 2.8% in June 2023 to 1.7% in June 2024, with a slight increase from the 1.5% recorded in March 2024. In monetary terms, NNPA stood at Rs. 223 crores as of June 30, 2024, a significant reduction from Rs. 338 crores a year ago, though up from Rs. 192 crores at the end of the previous quarter.

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