SBI Card Q2FY24: Navigating Headwinds with a Vision for Long-Term Success

Company Overview:

SBI Card & Payment Services Limited (SBI Card) is a leading Indian credit card issuer and payment services provider. It is a joint venture between the State Bank of India (SBI), the country’s largest bank, and The Carlyle Group. SBI Card offers a wide range of credit cards, including super premium cards, premium cards, travel and shopping cards, classic cards, exclusive co-branded cards as well and corporate cards. SBI Card was launched in October 1998 and has since grown to become the second-largest credit card issuer in India, with a customer base of over 16 million cards in force. The company has a wide network of branches and ATMs across India and also offers its products and services through online and mobile channels. SBI Card is known for its innovative products and services, as well as its commitment to customer service. The company has won various industry accolades for its customer service, branding, product innovation and marketing.

Core earnings fall as NIM/retail spending falls; costs rise:

SBI Card’s second-quarter earnings were in line with expectations, but they did not provide a clear picture of the company’s performance. The following reasons contributed to the 2% in QoQ growth in core profitability:- Margin decline: NIM fell 12 basis points year on year to 11.3%, while yields fell 14 basis points year on year. The share of high-yielding receivables remained stable (62% of the mix over the last two quarters), while revolvers stayed stable. Furthermore, the corporation was unable to reprice EMI loans in time for the holiday season. Fee growth slowed to 3.5% as less lucrative corporate spending (increased 14% QoQ) outpaced retail spending (up 5% QoQ). Online retail spending on discretionary items (consumer durables, clothes, and jewelry) fell 44%. Analysts are cautious about discretionary spending since structural demand drivers are weak. Cost income increased to 57% (up 70 basis points QoQ) as a result of significant corporate spending and cash-back incentives (recent offers as high as 27.5% cash-back on select consumer durable goods).

Anticipated Impact of Industry Headwinds on SBI Card’s Q3 Earnings:

SBI Card’s third-quarter earnings are projected to be impacted by industry headwinds such as low revolvers, competition, poor discretionary expenditure, and risks associated with small-ticket card loans. As a result, analysts anticipate that the company’s receivables CAGR will fall from 30% to 27% in FY24-26E, while its spending CAGR will fall from 24% to 21%. Analysts anticipate that SBI Card’s cost-income ratio will stay elevated in FY24-26E, averaging 58%.

SBI Card Faces Trade-off Between Credit Cost and NII:

SBI Card is facing a difficult choice between increasing its net interest income (NII) and reducing its credit costs. On the one hand, the company is increasing its sourcing from open market and banca channels in order to boost revenues. However, this could lead to higher credit costs, which could offset the positives in NII. SBI Card’s self-employed and tier 3 sourcing climbed to 41% and 33%, respectively, in Q2, contributing to an increase in NII. However, credit expenses increased to 6.7%, and write-offs increased 9% year on year. Given that SBI Card is not immune to the unsecured credit market’s headwinds, analysts have revised down their credit cost/GNPA projections for FY24E/25E to 6.3%/2.7%, respectively.

Valuation Outlook: Downgrade to “Reduce,” TP Adjusted to INR 829:

The current valuation of the stock is INR 747 per share. With a book value of INR 117 per share, the market is trading at a Price-to-Book Value (P/BV) ratio of 6.43x, indicating that the stock is priced significantly higher than its book value. Furthermore, the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 30.7x, suggesting that investors are willing to pay a premium for each unit of earnings generated by the company. This elevated P/E ratio could be a result of strong market sentiment, high growth expectations, or a combination of both. In evaluating this stock, investors should carefully consider whether the premium valuation aligns with their investment goals and risk tolerance. Exhibits 1-6 demonstrate a detailed examination of industry trends that suggest a considerable increase (an increase of 114 basis points) in the 90-day past due (90dpd) rate for credit cards, raising worries regarding SBICARD’s portfolio quality in the coming months. This condition produces a more obvious conflict between credit charges and net interest income (NII), which could have a detrimental influence on the company’s profitability.

Impressive Q2FY24 Financial Performance:

In the second quarter of the fiscal year 2024, the company reported robust financial results. Total revenue amounted to INR 14,286 crore, indicating a substantial 26% year-on-year (YoY) growth. The net profit also demonstrated remarkable performance, surging to INR 603 crore, marking a substantial 15% YoY increase. Earnings per share (EPS) reached INR 6.37, reflecting a solid 14% YoY growth. Additionally, the Return on Equity (RoE) stood at an impressive 25.7%, and the Return on Assets (RoA) was a notable 5.63%, showcasing the company’s strong financial performance and efficiency during this quarter.

Conclusion:

SBI Card is a well-known Indian credit card issuer and provider of payment services with a proven track record of profitability and growth. However, the company is currently suffering industry headwinds such as low revolvers, competition, poor discretionary expenditure, and risks associated with small-ticket card loans. These obstacles are expected to have an immediate impact on the company’s profitability. Despite the challenges, SBI Card is well-positioned for long-term expansion. The company has a strong brand, a diverse product and service offering, and a sizable client base. SBI Card is also investing in digital and technology initiatives to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency.