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Arkade Developers: High-Margin, Debt-Free Growth in Mumbai Realty
Business, Editorials, Real Estate, Research, Research Reports - July 18, 2025

Arkade Developers: High-Margin, Debt-Free Growth in Mumbai Realty

Arkade Developers: High-Margin, Debt-Free Growth in Mumbai Realty

Arkade Developers Ltd. is a well-established Mumbai-based real estate developer with a strong legacy of over 39 years. The company has successfully delivered 31 projects, completing more than 5.5 million sq. ft. of development and housing over 5,500 families. Known for its timely project execution and customer-centric approach, Arkade focuses on premium and society redevelopment projects across Mumbai’s western and eastern suburbs. As of March 31, 2025, the promoter and promoter group, led by Mr. Amit Mangilal Jain, hold a 71.09% stake in the company. It is listed on both NSE (Symbol: ARKADE) and BSE (Code: 544261). The company follows an asset-light model and maintains zero net debt, which enhances its financial resilience. In FY25, Arkade reported ₹695 crore in revenue, ₹206 crore EBITDA, and ₹157 crore in net profit, driven by strong pre-sales, robust cash flows, and a well-diversified project pipeline supporting future growth.

 

Stock Data
NIFTY : 25,212
52 Week H/L (INR) : ₹ 210 / 128
Market Cap (INR Cr) : ₹ 3,818 Cr.
Book Value : ₹ 47.6
Outstanding Shares (Cr.) : 18.6
NSE Code : ARKADE
BSE Code : 544261
CMP : ₹ 206

Future Business Outlook
Arkade Developers is positioning itself as a prominent player in Mumbai’s real estate landscape with a strategic focus on luxury and premium redevelopment. The company has adopted an asset-light and zero-net-debt model that supports capital efficiency and faster project execution, making it well-suited for scalable growth. Its presence is expanding across both eastern and western suburbs, targeting high-demand micro-markets through a mix of greenfield and redevelopment projects. Consistent pre-sales performance, coupled with timely project delivery, has ensured robust cash flows, enabling reinvestment into new high-GDV opportunities.
Key Growth Drivers
Demand for premium residential housing in Mumbai continues to be a structural trend, benefiting players like Arkade. The company has acquired land parcels with strong monetization potential in locations such as Goregaon, Andheri, Mulund, and Santacruz. Its execution capability is demonstrated by projects being delivered well before RERA deadlines, reinforcing customer trust and brand value. A healthy mix of ongoing and upcoming projects with visibility across multiple micro-markets positions Arkade to sustain volume and revenue growth in the medium to long term.
Project Pipeline
Arkade currently has 9 ongoing projects (~2 Mn sq. ft.) with an estimated turnover of ₹3,317 Cr, including key developments like Arkade Crown (Borivali), Aspire (Goregaon), and Aura (Santacruz).
The company also has 10 upcoming projects (~2.22 Mn sq. ft.) with a turnover potential of ₹7,579 Cr, including Filmistan (₹2,000 Cr), Anand Nagar (₹1,700 Cr), and Satya Shripal (₹865 Cr), further strengthening growth visibility.
Financial Projections (FY25–FY27)
We project revenue to grow at a CAGR of ~8% from ₹683 Cr in FY25 to ₹795 Cr by FY27, driven by improved project mix and expansion. Operating profit is expected to expand from ₹206 Cr to ₹358 Cr, with operating margin rising from 30% to 33.7%, supported by cost controls and scale benefits. PAT is projected to grow from ₹157 Cr to ₹237 Cr during the same period, implying a CAGR of ~22%, with PAT margin expanding to 30%.
Valuation and Recommendation
We assign a BUY rating on the stock with a projected target price of ₹497.73, based on 39x FY27E EPS of ₹12.76. The stock currently trades at a significant discount to larger listed peers despite delivering superior profitability metrics and maintaining a debt-free balance sheet. Given its strong pipeline, asset-light strategy, and consistent execution, we believe Arkade is well-positioned to emerge as a mid-cap re-rating candidate in the real estate sector.

Absolute Returns (%)
3 Months : 22.3%
6 Months : 27.1 %

VALUATION OUTLOOK

Undervalued vs Peers:
Arkade trades at EV/EBITDA of 17.4x and P/E of 24.3x, both below the peer average of 45.6x EV/EBITDA and 82.7x P/E, indicating strong rerating potential. Discounted EV/Sales Multiple:
Arkade’s EV/Sales of 5.6x is modest compared to peers, with some companies trading over 10x, suggesting room for valuation catch-up.

Implied Upside in Market Cap:
Based on peer averages, Arkade’s implied market cap is ₹5,040 Cr, vs current value of ₹3,798 Cr — indicating 33% upside potential.

Implied Share Price Suggests Re-rating:
The implied share price is ₹271.4, compared to the current ₹205.56, suggesting the stock is undervalued at present levels.

Strong Financials Support Valuation:
With ₹683 Cr in revenue, ₹206 Cr EBITDA, and ₹157 Cr PAT, Arkade demonstrates solid earnings power that can support a higher multiple.

Low Debt and Asset-Light Model:
Arkade’s relatively low leverage (Debt/Equity of 0.13) and zero net debt status improve valuation appeal compared to more leveraged peers.

Metric

 FY24 Cr. FY25 Cr. YoY Growth

(%)
Revenue from Operations 636 695 9.27%
Gross Profit 206 264 28.2%
Gross Profit Margin 32.40% 38.6% +620 bps
EBITDA 167 206 23.4%
EBITDA Margin 26.3% 29.6% +330 bps
Profit Before Tax (PBT) 211.4 266.8 26.18%
Profit After Tax (PAT) 123 157 27.6%
PAT Margin 19.3% 22.9%  
ROCE% 45% 31%  
ROE 38.08% 17.76%  
Debt to Equity 0.22 0.13  

 

1. Business Model & Key Differentiators

Arkade Developers Ltd. operates with a unique combination of financial discipline, operational agility, and strategic vision. The company’s asset-light model, emphasis on premium society redevelopment, and debt-free operations have enabled it to outperform many peers despite being a relatively recent entrant to the listed space.

1. Asset-Light Strategy & Zero Net Debt

Arkade follows an asset-light approach by focusing on society redevelopment projects, where upfront land cost is minimal. This enhances return on capital and keeps the balance sheet flexible.

Metric FY24 FY25
Gross Debt (₹ Cr) 71 115
Cash & Equivalents (₹ Cr) 143 134
Net Debt (₹ Cr) -72 -19
Net Debt/Equity             0.00 0.13
Model Type Redevelopment-focused Redevelopment + Greenfield

Result: The company operates with negative net debt, providing it flexibility to fund growth internally or raise capital on favorable terms when needed.

2. In-House Project Management = Faster Turnaround

Arkade’s execution strategy relies on integrated in-house teams for design, legal, engineering, and approvals. This reduces dependency on external vendors and cuts down project delays.

Execution Efficiency Benchmark Arkade
Project Completion Timeline 36–48 months 24–30 months
Approval to Launch Duration 6–9 months 4–6 months
Avg. Cost Overrun Industry: ~10% <5%

 Result: Higher efficiency, faster cash flow conversion, and better internal rate of return (IRR).

3. Early RERA Completion Record

Arkade consistently completes projects 9–10 months before RERA deadlines, improving delivery trust, freeing up capital faster, and enhancing customer satisfaction.

Project RERA Deadline Planned Delivery Expected Early Completion
Arkade Crown Jun 2024 Jun 2024 9 months early
Arkade Aspire Aug 2024 Aug 2024 10 months early
Arkade Pearl Dec 2026 Feb 2026 10 months early

 Result: Improves brand reliability and cash flow turnaround, supports faster pre-sales cycles.

4. High-IRR Development Model

Arkade strategically focuses on high-IRR, premium segment redevelopment, reducing upfront capital needs while achieving high margins.

IRR Benchmarks Industry Avg. Arkade Projects
Greenfield IRR 14% – 16% 18%
Redevelopment IRR 20% – 25% 25% – 28%
Cost of Project Financing 11% – 13% ~8% or self-funded

 Result: Maximizes return per rupee invested and enhances EPS over time.

5. Strong CSR & ESG Integration

Arkade aligns its brand with responsible urban development, supporting healthcare, education, and environmental sustainability.

Initiative Impact
Sajjan Jain Trust Education & healthcare to underprivileged
Care per Sq. Ft. (Tata Hospital) Cancer treatment donations for every sq. ft. sold
Bal Asha Trust, Apna Ghar Child care and rehabilitation
In-house Green Compliance IGBC alignment, energy-efficient buildings

 Result: Builds long-term brand trust and aligns with institutional ESG mandates.

2. Detailed Analysis: Ongoing Projects of Arkade Developers Ltd.

Arkade has 9 ongoing projects across key micro-markets in Mumbai’s western and eastern suburbs, focusing on premium and aspirational housing, through a mix of greenfield developments and society redevelopments. These projects reflect a strategic push into high-demand zones with faster sales cycles and better margins.

Project Name Location Category Development Type Plot Size (Sq. M) Saleable Area (Sq. Ft.) Completion (RERA) Projected Turnover (₹ Cr)
Arkade Crown Borivali (W) Aspirational Society Redevelopment 5,711 113,805 Jun’24 ** ₹325 Cr
Arkade Aspire Goregaon (E) Aspirational Greenfield 5,933 168,643 Aug’24 ** ₹490 Cr
Arkade Aura Santacruz (W) Premium Society Redevelopment 3,791 59,279 Dec’24 ** ₹276 Cr
Arkade Prime Andheri (E) Aspirational Greenfield 2,091 65,566 Jan’25 ** ₹165 Cr
Arkade Nest Mulund (W) Aspirational Greenfield 8,327 249,163 Jun’27 ₹619 Cr
Arkade Pearl Vile Parle (E) Premium Society Redevelopment 4,153 75,145 Dec’26 ₹300 Cr
Arkade Eden Malad (W) Premium Society Redevelopment 3,101 49,981 Dec’26 ₹150 Cr
Arkade Views/Vistas Goregaon (E) Aspirational Society Redevelopment 4,487 81,960 Dec’27 ₹242 Cr
Arkade Rare Bhandup (W) Aspirational Greenfield 11,967 313,070 Dec’28 ₹750 Cr

 Strategic Importance

  • These ongoing projects form the operational backbone of Arkade’s near-term earnings visibility.
  • The early execution combined with healthy pre-sales will likely translate to strong free cash flows in FY26 and FY27.
  • These projects also pave the way for leveraging upcoming projects (₹7,579 Cr pipeline) without excessive borrowing.

 3. Detailed Analysis: Upcoming Projects of Arkade Developers

Arkade Developers has 10 upcoming projects primarily focused on premium society redevelopment and high-value greenfield development. These projects are located across Mumbai’s most in-demand western suburbs including Santacruz, Andheri, Malad, Goregaon, Borivali, and Dahisar. The combined saleable area exceeds 2.22 million sq. ft., with an impressive projected turnover of ₹7,579 crore, offering a solid pipeline for revenue over the next 3–5 years.

Project Name Location Category Development Type Plot Size (Sq. M) Saleable Area (Sq. Ft.) Projected Turnover (₹ Cr)
Nutan Ayojan Malad (W) Premium Society Redevelopment 6,860 2,33,000 ₹740 Cr
Laxmi Ramana Goregaon (W) Premium Society Redevelopment 4,619 59,793 ₹213 Cr
Maheshwari Niwas Santacruz (W) Premium Society Redevelopment 2,290 38,700 ₹200 Cr
Apna Ghar Andheri (W) Premium Society Redevelopment 7,381 83,212 ₹388 Cr
Bussa CHS Santacruz (W) Premium Society Redevelopment 2,902 45,000 ₹190 Cr
Rani Sati Malad (W) Premium Society Redevelopment 6,337 2,11,940 ₹757 Cr
Satya Shripal Borivali (W) Premium Society Redevelopment 7,084 2,44,000 ₹865 Cr
Jumbo Darshan Andheri (E) Premium Society Redevelopment 6,811 1,29,300 ₹526 Cr
Filmistan Goregaon (W) Premium Greenfield Development 16,200 5,00,000 ₹2,000 Cr
Anand Nagar Dahisar (E) Premium Society Redevelopment 26,286 6,76,000 ₹1,700 Cr

4. Quarterly Performance (Q4 FY25)

Metric Q4 FY24 Q4 FY25 YoY Growth (%)
Revenue from Operations ₹123.0 ₹134.0 +8.9%
Gross Profit ₹41 ₹60 +46.30%
EBITDA ₹27 ₹45.0 +66.7%
EBITDA Margin (%) 22.00% 33.6%  
Net Profit (PAT) ₹20 ₹33.0 +65%
PAT Margin (%) 16.30% 24.6%  
Pre-Sales Value ₹196.0 ₹217.0 +10.71%
Collections ₹176.0 ₹238.0 +35.23%
Carpet Area Sold (sq. ft. in ’000) 64 70 +9.38%

 Q4 FY25 Performance Summary (YoY Comparison)

  • Revenue from Operations rose 8.9% YoY to ₹134 Cr, reflecting sustained sales momentum across ongoing projects.
  • Gross Profit increased by 46.3% YoY to ₹60 Cr, driven by improved cost efficiencies and a richer project mix.
  • EBITDA witnessed robust growth of 66.7% YoY, reaching ₹45 Cr, underscoring strong operational leverage.
  • EBITDA Margin expanded sharply by 1,160 bps, improving from 22.0% to 33.6%, indicating enhanced project-level profitability.
  • Net Profit (PAT) grew 65% YoY to ₹33 Cr, with PAT margin improving from 16.3% to 24.6%, aided by higher margins and stable overheads.
  • Pre-sales Value stood at ₹217 Cr, up 10.71% YoY, backed by healthy booking traction.
  • Collections rose significantly by 35.23% YoY to ₹238 Cr, reflecting strong customer cash inflows and project execution.
  • Carpet Area Sold increased 9.38% YoY to 70,000 sq. ft., indicating continued demand and sales conversion strength.

5. Financial Highlights (P&L Statement)

Particulars 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 YoY Growth (Mar-24 to Mar-25)
Revenue (₹ Cr) 106 225 220 635 683 7.56%
Expenses (₹ Cr) 80 170 160 467 477 2.14%
Operating Profit 26 54 60 168 206 22.61%
OPM % 24% 24% 27% 26% 30%  
Other Income 5 15 8 2 12  
Interest (₹ Cr) 1 4 1 3 2 -33.33%
Depreciation (₹ Cr) 0 0 0 1 5  
Profit Before Tax 29 66 67 165 211 27.88%
Tax % 25% 22% 24% 26% 26%  
Net Profit (₹ Cr) 22 51 51 123 157 27.64%

 Key Financial Highlights – FY25 (YoY Comparison)

  • Revenue grew steadily from ₹106 Cr in FY21 to ₹683 Cr in FY25, with a YoY growth of 7.56%, reflecting consistent business expansion.
  • Operating Expenses remained tightly managed, increasing by just 2.14% YoY in FY25, despite a higher scale of project execution.
  • Operating Profit rose by 22.61% YoY to ₹206 Cr, supported by improved operating leverage and execution efficiency.
  • Operating Margin improved from 26% to 30%, highlighting better cost controls and stronger pricing power.
  • Other Income increased significantly from ₹2 Cr to ₹12 Cr, marking a 500% jump, contributing meaningfully to bottom-line growth.
  • Interest Expense declined by 33.33% YoY, reinforcing the benefits of the company’s zero-net-debt capital structure.
  • Depreciation increased from ₹1 Cr to ₹5 Cr, indicating new asset additions or capitalization of completed projects.
  • Profit Before Tax (PBT) stood at ₹211 Cr, up 27.88% YoY, showcasing strong operational profitability.
  • Net Profit (PAT) grew by 27.64% YoY to ₹157 Cr, reflecting solid financial execution and bottom-line efficiency.
  • Tax Rate remained stable at 26%, in line with prior periods.

6. Financial Highlights
Balance Sheet Statement

Particulars 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 YoY Growth (Mar-24 to Mar-25)
Equity Capital (₹ Cr) 2 2 2 152 186 22.37%
Reserves (₹ Cr) 97 148 198 171 698 308.77%
Borrowings (₹ Cr) 14 64 149 71 115 61.97%
Other Liabilities (₹ Cr) 237 156 206 180 252 40.00%
Total Liabilities (₹ Cr) 350 370 555 575 1,251 117.57%
Fixed Assets (₹ Cr) 0 2 2 14 19 35.71%
CWIP (₹ Cr) 0 0 0 0 0 No Change
Investments (₹ Cr) 114 40 17 18 138 666.67%
Other Assets (₹ Cr) 236 329 536 543 1,093 101.22%
Total Assets (₹ Cr) 350 370 555 575 1,251 117.57%

 Key Balance Sheet Highlights – FY25

  • Equity Capitalincreased by 37%, reflecting capital infusion during the year to support growth initiatives.
  • Reservessurged by 77%, driven by higher retained earnings from strong profitability in FY25.
  • Borrowingsrose by 97%, though the company continues to operate with low leverage, maintaining a robust balance sheet profile.
  • Other Liabilitiesgrew by 40%, likely reflecting higher project-related payables and deferred obligations.
  • Total Liabilitiesmore than doubled, increasing by 57%, indicating scale-up in business operations and project pipeline.
  • Fixed Assetsincreased by 71%, due to investments in office infrastructure and project-related assets.
  • Investmentswitnessed a significant rise of 67%, suggesting strategic deployment of surplus capital into financial or operational assets.
  • Other Assets(inventories, receivables, advances) grew by 22%, in line with an expanding project portfolio.
  • Total Assetsrose by 57%, mirroring liability growth and signaling the company’s ongoing expansion phase.
  • Capital Work in Progress (CWIP)remained stable, implying that key projects were either completed or capitalized during the year.

7. Financial Highlights (Cash Flow Summary)

Particulars Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25
Cash from Operating Activity + 144 -125 -99 102 -218
Cash from Investing Activity + -98 76 29 -12 -229
Cash from Financing Activity + -49 46 84 -83 445
Net Cash Flow -3 -2 14 7 -1

 Key Cash Flow Highlights (FY21–FY25)

  • FY21:
    Generated a strong operating cash inflow of ₹144 Cr, driven by robust core business performance.
    High investing outflow of ₹98 Cr suggests capital allocation toward project development or asset purchases.
    Net cash flow stood at ₹-3 Cr, reflecting near cash-neutral operations despite significant investments.
  • FY22:
    Reported negative operating cash flow of ₹-125 Cr, likely due to inventory buildup or working capital blockage.
    Investing inflow of ₹76 Cr may have resulted from asset divestment or reduced capex.
    Net cash flow of ₹-2 Cr, indicating minor cash burn.
  • FY23:
    Operating cash flow remained negative at ₹-99 Cr, as project investments continued.
    Moderate investing inflow of ₹29 Cr combined with positive financing inflow of ₹84 Cr, reflecting successful fundraising.
    Net cash flow turned positive at ₹+14 Cr, marking a temporary recovery.
  • FY24:
    Achieved a strong operating inflow of ₹102 Cr, supported by improved collections and profitability.
    Financing outflow of ₹83 Cr suggests debt repayment or dividend distribution.
    Net cash flow of ₹+7 Cr indicates growing financial stability.
  • FY25:
    Experienced a significant operating outflow of ₹-218 Cr, likely due to aggressive project execution or advance payments.
    Investing outflow of ₹229 Cr reflects substantial capital deployment into land or redevelopment rights.
    Financing inflow of ₹445 Cr points to major fundraising activity through equity or debt.
    Despite large cash movements, net cash flow stood at ₹-1 Cr, showcasing prudent capital management and balance sheet resilience.

8.  Ratio Analysis

Leverage Ratios 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Debt/Equity 0.14 0.43 0.74 0 0.13
Debt/Assets 0.04 0.17 0.27 0 0
Debt/EBITDA 0.54 1.19 2.48 0 1
Efficiency Ratios
Receivable Days 44 9 6 5 19
Receivable Turnover 8.3 40.56 60.83 73 19.21
Profitability Ratios
EBITDA 26 54 60 168 206
EBITDA Margin 24% 24% 27% 26% 30%
Gross Profit 98.58 319.5 422.4 622.3 266.37
EBIT 0 0 0 169 213
EBIT Margin 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 27.00% 31.00%
Net Profit Margin 20.75% 22.67% 23.18% 19.37% 22.99%
EPS 105.95 252.35 253.9 8.08 8.45
Capital Allocation Ratios
ROCE   41% 24% 45% 31%
EBIT Margin 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 27.00% 31.00%
Sales/Cap Employed 94% 105% 63% 161% 68%
NOPAT 0 0 0 125.06 157.62
Capital Employed 101 204 331 369 865
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings – – – – 17.88
Price/Book – – – – 3.18
EV/EBITDA – – – – 13.63

 Key Ratio Analysis – FY25

1. Leverage Ratios

o Debt-to-Equity dropped from 0.74 in FY23 to 0.13 in FY25, reflecting the company’s transition to a zero net-debt position in FY24, significantly strengthening the balance sheet.

o Debt/EBITDA improved to 1.0x, indicating comfortable leverage relative to earnings.

2. Efficiency Ratios

o Receivable Days increased to 19 (vs. 5 in FY24), suggesting a mild delay in collections cycle.

o Receivable Turnover decreased to 19.2x, though still reflects healthy receivables management.

3. Profitability Ratios

o EBITDA Margin expanded to 30%, supported by better project margins and cost efficiencies.

o Net Profit Margin stood at 22.99%, underlining strong bottom-line performance.

o EPS remained steady at ₹8.45, despite equity dilution following the public listing.

4. Capital Allocation Metrics

o ROCE moderated to 31% (vs. 45% in FY24), due to a higher capital base post fundraising.

o Sales/Capital Employed at 68% reflects efficient use of capital in driving topline growth.

o NOPAT rose to ₹157.6 Cr, in line with higher operating profits and tax-adjusted performance.

5. Valuation Ratios

o P/E Ratio stood at 17.88x, and EV/EBITDA at 13.63x, indicating potential undervaluation compared to peers.

o P/B Ratio at 3.18x remains reasonable, supported by robust ROE and strong growth visibility.

9. Financial Projections

Particulars FY2025 (Actual) FY2026 (Projected) YoY Growth % (25-26) FY2027 (Projected) YoY Growth % (26-27)
Revenue (₹ Cr) 683 750 9.81% 795 6.00%
Expenses (₹ Cr) 477 482 1.05% 437 -9.40%
Operating Profit (₹ Cr) 206 268 30.10% 358  
Operating Margin (%) 30% 30%   33.70%  
Other Income (₹ Cr) 12 10 -16.70% 10  
Interest (₹ Cr) 2 2   2  
Depreciation (₹ Cr) 5 6 20% 7 16.70%
Profit Before Tax (₹ Cr) 211 242 14.70% 321 32.60%
Tax Rate (%) 26% 26%   26%  
Net Profit (₹ Cr) 157 179 14.00% 237 32.40%
PAT Margin (%) 22.99% 23.87%   30%  
P/E Ratio (assumed) 24.3 39   39  
Outstanding Shares (Cr) 18.57 18.57   18.57  
EPS 8.45 9.63   12.76  
Share Price (Projected) 205.45     497.73  

 Summary of Financial Projections (FY2026–FY2027)

· Revenue is projected to grow from ₹683 Cr in FY2025 to ₹750 Cr in FY2026 (+9.81% YoY) and further to ₹795 Cr in FY2027 (+6.00% YoY), indicating a stable and upward revenue trajectory.

· Expenses are expected to increase marginally by 1.05% in FY2026, followed by a 9.40% decline in FY2027, highlighting improved cost controls and operational efficiency.

· Operating Profit is projected to increase sharply by 30.10% in FY2026 to ₹268 Cr, and further by 33.58% in FY2027 to ₹358 Cr, reflecting robust earnings growth and margin expansion.

· Operating Margin is expected to remain stable at 30% in FY2026, before expanding to 33.70% in FY2027, supported by operating leverage and efficiency gains.

· Profit Before Tax (PBT) is forecasted to grow from ₹211 Cr in FY2025 to ₹242 Cr in FY2026 (+14.70%), and further to ₹321 Cr in FY2027 (+32.60%).

· Net Profit (PAT) is expected to rise from ₹157 Cr to ₹179 Cr in FY2026 (+14.00%), and then to ₹237 Cr in FY2027 (+32.40%), driven by strong operational performance and margin improvement.

· PAT Margin is projected to improve from 22.99% in FY2025 to 23.87% in FY2026, and further to 30% in FY2027, highlighting enhanced bottom-line efficiency.

· Earnings Per Share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from ₹8.45 in FY2025 to ₹9.63 in FY2026 and ₹12.76 in FY2027, reflecting improved earnings and shareholder returns.

· Share Price is projected to increase significantly from ₹205.45 to ₹497.73 by FY2027, based on a forward P/E multiple of 39x, implying substantial upside potential for investors.

10.  Valuation Analysis

 Strategic Interpretations & Investment Rationale

1. Undervalued Across Key Multiples

o Arkade Developers is trading at 5.6x EV/Sales, 17.4x EV/EBITDA, and 24.3x P/E, significantly below peer group averages of 8.6x, 45.6x, and 82.7x, respectively.

o This positions the company as a classic undervalued mid-cap play in the real estate sector, offering substantial rerating potential.

2. Implied Valuation Indicates 30%+ Upside

o Based on Arkade’s current fundamentals, the implied share price stands at ₹271.41 versus the current market price of ₹205.56, reflecting a 32% valuation gap.

o This provides a strong near-to-medium-term upside opportunity for investors.

3. Strong Earnings Yet to Reflect in Valuation

o Despite reporting ₹683 Cr in revenue and ₹157 Cr in PAT in FY25, the market has not factored in the earnings momentum.

o This valuation disconnect creates a compelling entry point before broader price discovery takes place.

4. Debt-Free Balance Sheet Enhances Investment Comfort

o Arkade operates with zero net debt (₹-19.42 Cr), a rare trait in the sector, offering a robust margin of safety.

o This balance sheet strength justifies a valuation premium, though the stock currently trades at a discount.

5. Institutional Discovery as a Key Rerating Catalyst

o Upcoming project deliveries such as Filmistan and Santacruz, along with increased institutional coverage, are expected to serve as strong rerating triggers.

o These milestones could significantly narrow the valuation gap.

6. Exceptional ROCE & Execution History Merit Premium

o With a ROCE range of 31% to 45%, Arkade stands out for its capital efficiency.

o Its consistent record of on-time project completion supports a case for higher valuation multiples, in line with peers such as Marathon or Ajmera Realty.

7. Disciplined Capital Allocation Drives Sustainable Growth

o The company follows a high-IRR redevelopment strategy, ensuring efficient capital deployment.

With controlled operational leverage and focused expansion, Arkade is well-positioned for sustainable earnings growth

11.  Why the Stock is Undervalued

Despite its strong operational momentum and a robust development pipeline, Arkade Developers Ltd. remains materially undervalued relative to peers in the real estate sector. The following factors contribute to the current market mispricing:

1.Recent Listing with Limited Institutional Coverage

Arkade was listed in October 2023, making it a recent entrant in the public markets. Due to this short listing history, the stock lacks adequate institutional coverageand analyst attention, resulting in low visibility among large-cap and mutual fund investors. This has led to valuation multiples remaining suppressed despite strong business fundamentals.

2.Mid-Cap Real Estate Yet to Fully Re-rate

While large-cap names such as DLFand Godrej Propertieshave already benefited from premium valuations and broad institutional participation, the mid-cap segment is still in the early stages of discovery. Arkade, with its lean balance sheet, consistent execution, and scalable redevelopment model, is well-positioned to benefit as institutional capital begins to flow into undervalued, fundamentally sound mid-cap players.

3. High-Impact Rerating Triggers Ahead

The company’s upcoming pipeline includes high-value redevelopment projectssuch as Filmistan (₹1,400 Cr revenue potential), Santacruz, and Andheri, which are expected to launch over the next 12–18 months. These are anticipated to act as inflection points, driving higher pre-sales, improved operating leverage, and institutional recognition — all of which can trigger multiple expansionand rerating of the stock.

4.Strong Financials Yet to be Valued Appropriately

In FY25, Arkade reported ₹683 Cr in revenueand ₹157 Cr in PAT, outpacing many older peers on a profitability basis. However, its current valuation — 24.3x P/E and 17.4x EV/EBITDA— remains well below sector averages of 82.7x P/E and 45.6x EV/EBITDA. This suggests the stock’s earnings power is not yet fully reflected in its market price.

Conclusion
Arkade’s current valuation does not align with its high return metrics, debt-free status, and strong visibility on future cash flows. As institutional investors begin to recognize the company’s execution track record and scalable business model, the stock is well-positioned for material re-rating. This creates an attractive early-mover opportunity for value-conscious investors seeking long-term compounding in the mid-cap real estate space.

12. What Investors Stand to Gain

Arkade Developers Ltd. presents a high-conviction investment case for investors seeking a blend of value, visibility, and velocity. With robust fundamentals, margin visibility, and an efficient capital deployment model, the company offers a differentiated opportunity in the premium Mumbai redevelopment space. Key benefits for investors include:

1. Valuation Rerating Potential

Arkade is currently trading at a deep discount to sector peersacross valuation metrics like P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EV/Sales. As the market begins to price in its profitability, growth pipeline, and brand strength, investors could benefit from multiple expansion. A 30–35% implied upsideexists from current levels, driven by both earnings’ growth and valuation normalization — a classic early-mover arbitrage opportunity.

2. Sustained High Margins

The company operates on a low-cost, high-margin modeldue to its focus on society redevelopment, which involves negligible land acquisition costs. This strategy supports industry-leading EBITDA margins of 28–30%, well above the sector average. As new projects like Filmistan, Santacruz, and Andheriprogress, these margins are expected to remain strong or improve, offering better operating leverage and earnings visibility.

3. Strong Risk-Adjusted Returns

Arkade follows an asset-light development modeland maintains a net-debt-free balance sheet, significantly reducing financial risk. Additionally, its projects are backed by in-house execution capabilitiesand a consistent track record of early RERA completions, mitigating project delivery risk — a key concern in the real estate sector.

4. Superior Capital Efficiency

The company’s fast project turnaround, early monetization, and efficient working capital cycle enable superior Internal Rate of Return (IRR)on capital employed. Flagship projects such as Filmistanare expected to deliver 25%+ IRRs, supporting high RoE and long-term wealth creation for shareholders.

Bottom Line

Arkade Developers offers a rare combination of premium real estate exposure, capital safety, and valuation upside. With strong earnings momentum, scalable operations, and upcoming project launches acting as catalysts, the company is well-positioned for multi-year compounding. For investors willing to enter ahead of broad institutional discovery, this represents a compelling opportunity to participate in a high-growth, low-risk real estate play.

13. What Investors May Miss If They Ignore Arkade

As the Indian real estate sector continues to see renewed investor interest, overlooking Arkade Developers Ltd. could result in missing one of the most compelling mid-cap re-rating opportunities in the space. Despite superior execution, clean balance sheet, and scalable growth visibility, the stock remains under-discovered — a scenario unlikely to persist. Here’s what’s at risk:

1.Missed Opportunity for 100%+ Returns in 2–3 Years

Arkade is trading at a steep valuation discountrelative to peers, despite industry-beating marginsand a robust pipeline. As key projects like Filmistan and Santacruz monetize and earnings scale up, the stock has the potential to double over the next 24–36 months. Delaying entry now may mean missing the full re-rating cycle.

2.Ignoring a Rare Debt-Free, High-Margin Developer

In a sector known for financial leverage and execution delays, Arkade’s zero-net-debt profile, strong cash flow discipline, and in-house execution capabilities are exceptional. Investors seeking risk-adjusted alphawould be overlooking a rare opportunity to own a safe compounderin an otherwise volatile space.

3.Suboptimal Capital Allocation vs Overvalued Peers

Capital parked in stretched valuations — such as Sunteck Realty (P/E ~43x)or Marathon Nextgen (EV/EBITDA ~29.5x)— may underperform relative to Arkade, which trades at just P/E ~24.3x and EV/EBITDA ~17.4x. The valuation gap offers a margin of safety along with stronger earnings visibility.

4.Missing the Early Stages of a Future Market Leader

Arkade is positioning itself as a leading player in Mumbai’s society redevelopment— a structurally growing niche with limited organized players. Early-stage entry offers investors a front-row seat to a multi-year compounding story, ahead of broader institutional participation.

Bottom Line

Arkade Developers represents a unique convergence of value, visibility, and velocity. Ignoring this opport unity may result in missing a rare, clean, high-margin, high-growth real estate company — available today at deep-value valuations. The current market inefficiency around Arkade is temporary; when recognition arrives, so will rapid price discovery — and those late to enter may find the outsized returns already priced in.

14. Investment Thesis: Arkade Developers Ltd. — A Rare Mid-Cap Compounder in Premium Real Estate

Arkade Developers Ltd. presents a compelling blend of growth, financial discipline, and value in India’s high-potential urban redevelopment segment. With strong fundamentals and a focused strategy, it stands out as a high-conviction BUY for long-term investors seeking asymmetric returns with limited downside risk.

 1. High Growth with Financial Safety

Consistent topline and bottom-line growth, supported by EBITDA margins of 28–30%.

  • Operates with a net debt-free balance sheet, ensuring financial stability.
  • Adopts an asset-light, society redevelopment model, enabling high ROCE with minimal capital intensity.

2. Premium Market Exposure at Mid-Cap Valuations

  • Focused on premium Mumbai micro-markets like Andheri, Goregaon, and Santacruz.
  • Yet trades at only 3x P/E and 17.4x EV/EBITDA, significantly lower than listed peers.
  • With an implied fair value of ₹271, the stock offers 30%+ near-term upside.
  • Based on FY27 estimates and a conservative 39x P/E, the target price projects to ₹497.73, representing 100%+ upside

3. Proven Execution & Operational Strength

  • Delivered 31 projects over 39 years, with early RERA completions averaging 9–10 months ahead of schedule.
  • In-house execution, legal, and compliance teams ensure faster turnaround and project control.

4. Clean Financials and Robust Pipeline

  • FY25 performance: Revenue ₹683 Cr, PAT ₹157 Cr, ROCE 31%, and zero net debt.
  • Project pipeline of ₹10,800+ Crfrom ongoing and upcoming projects ensures sustained growth over 3–5 years.

5. Promoter Integrity & Institutional Governance

  • Led by Amit Jain, a visionary second-generation entrepreneur.
  • Practices zero promoter pledging, transparent disclosures, and community-driven CSR, reinforcing investor trust.
  • Governance practices are institution-ready, paving the way for broader institutional coverage and participation.

Conclusion: A Mispriced Premium Real Estate Opportunity

Arkade Developers Ltd. is currently underfollowed and undervalued, despite possessing the hallmarks of a long-term compounder: high margins, clean financials, and a scalable, risk-mitigated business model. With a clear growth runway, favorable market positioning, and robust internal execution, the stock is well-positioned to unlock significant value as market recognition improves. For discerning investors, this represents a rare opportunity to enter early into a multi-year re-rating story in India’s most lucrative real estate market.

15. Conclusion

Arkade Developers Ltd. stands out as a high-conviction investment opportunity within India’s mid-cap real estate space, offering a unique convergence of growth, scalability, and financial resilience. With a proven track record, strong fundamentals, and forward-looking strategy, the company is well-positioned to create long-term value for both institutional and high-net-worth investors.

With a legacy of 39+ years, Arkade has successfully delivered 31 projects, encompassing over 5.5 million sq. ft. and impacting more than 5,500 families across Mumbai. The firm’s focus on premium society redevelopment in strategic suburban markets—such as Andheri, Goregaon, and Santacruz—ensures superior IRR, low execution risk, and capital efficiency.

In FY25, Arkade posted revenue of ₹683 Cr, EBITDA of ₹206 Cr, and PAT of ₹157 Cr, translating into an EBITDA margin of ~30% and ROCE of 31%. Despite these strong metrics, the stock remains undervalued at 24.3x P/E and 17.4x EV/EBITDA, compared to industry averages of 45x and 30x, respectively. This valuation gap provides a highly attractive entry point, with a near-term target price of ₹271 and a projected FY27 price of ₹497.73 (based on 39x P/E), indicating significant upside potential.

The company’s zero net debt, robust project pipeline worth ₹10,800+ Cr, and marquee developments like Filmistan, Andheri, and Santacruz, provide earnings visibility for the next 3–5 years, along with scope for rerating as execution unfolds.

On the governance front, Arkade exhibits institution-ready transparency—with no promoter pledging, sound disclosures, and strong ESG orientation—under the experienced leadership of Mr. Amit Jain. This enhances its appeal for long-only funds and professional investors seeking consistency and credibility.

In summary, Arkade Developers Ltd. offers a rare blend of premium real estate exposure, robust financials, and deep value. For HNIs, family offices, and institutional investors, this represents a strategic opportunity to participate early in a multi-year value creation journey, driven by urban consolidation, disciplined growth, and operational excellence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The image added is for representation purposes only

Aurionpro Shares Climb After ₹30 Crore Digital Infrastructure Contract Win

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IREDA Q3FY25: Robust Loan Growth, Improved Asset Quality YoY, PAT Up 27%
Equities, Market News, Markets, Research, Research Reports, Result Updates - January 10, 2025

IREDA Q3FY25: Robust Loan Growth, Improved Asset Quality YoY, PAT Up 27%

IREDA Q3FY25: Robust Loan Growth, Improved Asset Quality YoY, PAT Up 27%

Company Name: Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd |  NSE Code: IREDA |  BSE Code: 544026 |  52 Week high/low: 310 / 104| CMP: INR 201 |   Mcap: INR 54,078 Cr   |  P/BV – 5.81

About the stock

IREDA is PSU NBFC engaged in the business of financing green energy projects. Its finances project such as solar, wind power, hydro power etc. GoI has conferred the Navratna status upon IREDA in April 2024. Loan portfolio well diversified across the 23 states and 4 UT in FY24. It contributing major role in fueling the India’s RE taget of 500 GW by 20230.

Robust growth in loan book up 36% YoY /7% half yearly

As on 30 December 2024, loan book stood at 68,960 Cr represent growth of 36% YoY while half-yearly growth was moderate at 8%. This growth led by loan given to state utilities (68% YoY) followed by hydro power at 35%, solar 18% and wind at 3%.

Along with loan book disbursement and sanction grew 25% and 45% to stood at 7,449 Cr and 13,227 Cr respectively.

Asset quality improved YoY but dissapoint QoQ

During the Q3FY25, gross asset quality has improved by 22 bps YoY declined in GNPA stood at 2.68% While QoQ jump 49 bps during the quarter. NNPA down 2 bps YoY to 1.5% but jump 46 bps QoQ despite the surge in provision coverage ratio.

Borrowing jump 39% during the quarter – domestic rise while foreign declined

During H2FY25 company’s borrowing increased by 39% to stood at 57,931 Cr. Dometic borrowing raised 54% to 49,361 Cr while foreign borrowings declined 12%.

In domestic borrowing, bank loan weightage has declined to 45% in Q2FY25 vs 57% in Q3FY24. while money raised through bonds weightage rise to 55% in Q3FY25 vs 43% in Q3FY24. The rising chance of rate cuts will declined the borrowing cost for company as bank loan and bond both equally weight in borrowing.

Within the foreign borrowing, un-hedged portion rise to 26% in Q3FY25 vs 21% in Q3FY24. While hedged portion has declined equally to increased in un-hedged. The surge in un-hedged portion increased the currency risk.

Valuation and key metrics

currently stock is trading at 5.79x its book value while the industry median P/B stood at 2.41x. During the quarter, Yield on loan jump 9 bps to 9.96% while Cost of borrowing decline by 15 bps to 7.68%. This result in surge in spread and NIMs by 23 bps and 13 bps to stood at 2.28% and 3.33% respectively. The cost of borrowinf can further decline in coming quarter as RBI ready to ease monetary policy. Capital Adequacy ratio stood at 19.63% which is above the guidance of RBI but decline by 425 bps YoY.

Q3FY25 Results updates

Interest income increased by 37% YoY (5% QoQ) to 1,654 Cr while interest expense jumped 36% YoY (0% QoQ) to 1,032 Cr. This result in NII grew by 39% YoY (14% QoQ) to 622 Cr. The surge in NII led by Nims expansion and increased in new loan book.

PPOP grew 52% YoY (30% QoQ) to 642 Cr due to lower Opex (down 65% YoY). While PAT surged by 27% YoY and 10% on QoQ basis to stood at 425 Cr.The PAT lowered due to higher growth in provision and tax expenses. 

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Bank Q3 Results reflect slower credit growth

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Safe Havens in 2025: Gold, Yen and Alternatives in a Volatile Year
Research, Research Reports - January 3, 2025

Equity Right Research: Sky Gold Ltd: Strong Volume Growth and Export Strategy Drive Upside, Initiate BUY

Equity Right Research: Sky Gold Ltd: Strong Volume Growth and Export Strategy Drive Upside, Initiate BUY

Company Name: Sky Gold Ltd | NSE Code: SKYGOLD | BSE Code: 541967 | 52 Week high/low: 489 / 89.3 | CMP: INR 393 | Mcap: INR 5,763 Cr | P/E- 71.4

Valuation View
SKYGOLD, at the CMP the stock is trading at P/E of 30 times FY2026 earnings projections, offers significant growth potential with underutilized capacity, margin expansion opportunities, and export-driven growth. We initiate coverage with a ‘BUY’ rating and TP of INR 648 (74x FY25E P/E), a 66% upside from its CMP.

Company Overview
Sky Gold (SKYGOLD), established in 2005 and headquartered in Mumbai, is a prominent player in the gold jewellery industry. The company operates on an asset-light, B2B business model, catering primarily to corporate gold retailers, mid-sized jewellers, and boutique stores. Its clientele boasts renowned names such as Malabar Gold, Joyalukkas India, Kalyan Jewellers, and Senco Gold.

SKYGOLD offers an extensive portfolio of jewellery designs, often incorporating studded American diamonds and colored stones to enhance the appeal of its products. The range includes necklaces, rings, pendants, bracelets, earrings, bangles, and even bespoke jewellery tailored to specific customer demands.

While its core operations are based in Mumbai, SKYGOLD serves a diverse clientele across regions, including key jewellery brands. To strengthen its presence in South India, the company has established sales offices in Kerala and Telangana, ensuring improved service delivery and accessibility in these markets.

Product offerings
Sky Gold specializes in crafting affordable gold jewelry, with prices ranging from ₹5,000 to approximately ₹1 lakh. The company focuses on lightweight designs in 18 and 22-carat gold, offering a diverse selection that includes plain, studded, and Turkish jewelry. Catering to mid-market and value-market segments, Sky Gold stands out by leveraging its in-house team of creative designers to deliver a wide portfolio of unique designs. Their product lineup features necklaces, rings, pendants, bracelets, earrings, bangles, and even custom-made pieces tailored to customer preferences. Equipped with advanced manufacturing technology, the company ensures quick turnaround times, delivering orders within just 72 hours of receipt.

1)Driving Revenue Growth Through Volume Expansion
The jewellery retail sector has been witnessing a strong shift toward formalization, with the organized segment expanding its share to 36% of the total market as of FY24, compared to approximately 22% in FY19. Over FY19-24, the total jewellery market has grown at a robust revenue CAGR of ~8%, reaching a market size of INR 6,400 billion. Notably, the organized market outpaced this growth, achieving a ~19% revenue CAGR, with leading players posting even stronger growth of over 20% CAGR.

This trend of formalization is expected to continue, supported by evolving consumer preferences. Factors like rising ticket sizes, improved shopping experiences, and a broader range of product offerings are driving the transition from unorganized to organized channels. Within this context, SKYGOLD appears well-positioned to capitalize on these opportunities, leveraging its ability to scale volumes efficiently.

Industry projections indicate that the jewellery market is set to achieve a 15% CAGR, reaching USD 145 billion by FY28. Meanwhile, organized retail is expected to grow at an impressive ~20% CAGR during the same period.

For SKYGOLD, volume growth has been a key driver of its performance. Over the past four years, the company has expanded its volumes by 1.6x, aided by the shift to its state-of-the-art facility in Navi Mumbai. This facility, with a monthly capacity of 750kg, is equipped with advanced German and Italian machinery, allowing for efficient operations. Currently, SKYGOLD is operating at around 300kg per month, leaving significant headroom for growth without the need for substantial capital expenditure.

Looking ahead, we estimate SKYGOLD will achieve sales exceeding 500kg per month by FY26 and reach full capacity utilization of 750kg per month by FY27. This scaling of volumes is expected to be a key driver of revenue growth in the coming years.

2)Higher Gold Prices to Drive Revenue Growth
Gold prices have demonstrated a strong upward trajectory, recording a 9% CAGR over the past four years. From INR 50,000 per 10gm in FY20, prices surged to INR 71,500 per 10gm in FY24. We anticipate prices to remain elevated over the next two years, driven by robust central bank purchases and steady physical demand.
Supported by healthy volume growth and rising gold prices, revenue grew at an impressive 49% CAGR during FY22–24.

 

3)Client Expansion and Wallet Share Growth
SKYGOLD boasts an impressive client portfolio, including marquee names such as Malabar Gold, Joyalukkas India, Senco Gold, and Kalyan Jewellers, along with a host of mid-sized and smaller retailers. These partnerships have flourished significantly over time, allowing the company to capitalize on their growth trajectory. With over 200 clients currently on board, SKYGOLD’s management is actively pursuing opportunities to expand its clientele both domestically and internationally. On average, the company adds 10–15 new clients every quarter, and this consistent momentum is expected to continue.

Client Concentration
The revenue mix indicates that approximately 70% of SKYGOLD’s business comes from corporate clients, while the remaining 30% is through its distribution channel comprising wholesalers. However, revenue dependency is notably concentrated, with the top five clients contributing around 72% of FY23 revenues. To strengthen its presence in South India, the company has established sales offices in Kerala and Telangana, enhancing client servicing capabilities in this key region. Moreover, SKYGOLD is on the verge of onboarding one of India’s leading gold retailers, which could substantially drive volumes in the near term. Discussions with other prominent corporate players are also underway.

Export Strategy
SKYGOLD has made strategic inroads into international markets, with product launches in the UAE, Malaysia, and Singapore. In FY24, exports accounted for 6% of total revenue. Looking ahead, the company aims to scale this contribution to 20% of overall revenue. Notably, export margins are more attractive, and payment terms are spot-based, providing a favorable impact on cash flow. This focused export strategy underscores SKYGOLD’s ambition to diversify its revenue streams and enhance profitability.

4)Organised Gold Jewellery Market: A Growth Opportunity
India’s gold jewellery market is witnessing a notable shift towards organised players, a trend set to benefit significantly. With corporate clients driving steady demand and contributing large-scale orders, companies are well-positioned to capitalise on this momentum. Organised retailers, currently accounting for 33% of overall jewellery sales in India, are projected to expand their market share to 44% by FY26. This transition is expected to enhance both demand and margins for key players.

Positive Operating Leverage Through Improved Utilisation
Margins across the sector have consistently improved due to higher volumes and operational efficiencies. As scaling continues, volume growth is likely to outpace workforce expansion, estimated to grow by only 1.5–2 times. This creates significant operating leverage, particularly for firms operating on a fixed payroll model. With exponential volume growth on the horizon, companies stand to optimise cost structures further and drive profitability.

5)Gold Metal Loans to Drive Cost Efficiency and Profitability
Skygold, with its industry-leading inventory management, maintains just 30 days of stock to fulfill client orders promptly. This enables one of the lowest lead times in the sector. To support its operations and enhance client servicing, the company currently relies on working capital loans, incurring a debt cost of 9.5%. However, management is set to leverage the government’s Gold Metal Loan (GML) scheme to optimize borrowing costs.

Under the GML mechanism, manufacturers borrow gold instead of cash and repay the loan using proceeds from sales. These loans, available for 180 days (domestic sales) or 270 days (exports), require 110% collateral but carry a significantly lower interest rate of just 4.5%.

Skygold plans to gradually scale the contribution of GML in its borrowing mix to 60% by FY25 and 80% by FY26. This strategic shift is expected to materially reduce its average cost of debt. While overall debt is anticipated to rise threefold between FY23 and FY26, the associated interest costs are projected to grow only twofold.

The combination of operating leverage and lower financing costs is set to drive a notable improvement in profitability. We estimate the PAT margin to expand from 1.9% in FY24 to 2.8% by FY26, translating to a threefold increase in profits over this period. This demonstrates Skygold’s commitment to balancing growth with financial prudence.

Competitive Landscape
SKYGOLD has established itself as the fastest-growing large-scale gold manufacturer, significantly outpacing its peers in terms of scale and growth from FY21 to FY24. This impressive performance is driven by its asset-light business model, enabling rapid scalability, and the strong execution capabilities of its promoters, who bring over two decades of industry experience. The company also benefits from long-standing relationships with key clients and a focused growth strategy that sets it apart in the market.

In contrast, Emerald Jewel Industry India, while the largest player, has faced stagnation in recent years. Its asset-heavy model, with significant investments in land and buildings, has hindered its ability to scale efficiently. Other competitors either lag in growth or deliver lower return ratios, further solidifying SKYGOLD’s leadership in the segment.

A key competitive advantage for SKYGOLD is its efficient operations, reflected in the shortest working capital cycle among peers. This efficiency stems from reduced lead times, which enhance its ability to meet market demand swiftly. Although the company’s debt/equity ratio is higher due to its aggressive growth strategy, the risk is mitigated by the nature of its inventory, 80% of which is work-in-progress gold. This positions SKYGOLD well for sustained growth while maintaining manageable financial risk.

Key Challenges
Price Volatility: The gems and jewellery industry in India is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the prices of precious metals like gold and gemstones. Global economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and currency fluctuations often trigger significant price swings. These variations not only escalate input costs but also disrupt consumer purchasing behavior, impacting overall demand.

Supply Chain Constraints: Nearly 70% of the demand for gold in India is fulfilled through mining, which is inherently limited in capacity. During challenging periods, these constraints intensify, leading to supply shortages and posing a significant risk to the industry.

Evolving Consumer Preferences: The shift towards Western lifestyles, reduced savings habits, and increased dependence on credit have altered consumer buying patterns. High-value gold items are becoming less appealing, with a growing preference for lightweight jewellery designs. This change in demand has contributed to weaker sales for traditional jewellery categories.

Rising Competition: The implementation of hallmarking has standardized the quality of gold, eroding the trust-based differentiation that many established brands once enjoyed. This has intensified competition, with emerging brands leveraging innovative online retail strategies to capture market share.

Key Managerial Personnel of SKYGOLD
Mr. Mangesh Chauhan (Chairman & Managing Director):
A founding member of SKYGOLD, Mr. Mangesh Chauhan brings over 15 years of expertise in the gems and jewellery sector. He spearheads the finance division while actively contributing to marketing initiatives. His role encompasses devising strategic plans and ensuring their effective execution.

Mr. Mahendra Chauhan (Whole-Time Director):
As a co-founder of SKYGOLD, Mr. Mahendra Chauhan has over 15 years of industry experience. He oversees the production department, ensuring streamlined manufacturing operations.

Mr. Darshan Chauhan (Whole-Time Director):
With more than 12 years in the gems and jewellery industry, Mr. Darshan Chauhan focuses on the conceptualisation and visualisation of new designs and products. His responsibilities extend to styling, pricing, business development, and maintaining efficiency in the manufacturing processes.

Valuation outlook

SKYGOLD: Positioned for Aggressive Growth

SKYGOLD’s growth has been driven by its transition to a new facility, enabling significant scaling opportunities. Leveraging long-standing relationships with gold retailers and regular client additions, the company has achieved a steep revenue surge while operating at less than 50% capacity, leaving ample room for growth.

As a contract manufacturer, SKYGOLD supports retailers projected to grow at 15–20% CAGR, contributing only a small portion to their revenue. The management aims to aggressively onboard new clients, deepen existing relationships, and expand its market share.

Exports, currently at 6% of revenue, are a key focus area. The company plans to boost this to over 20% in the next two years, capitalizing on its advanced capabilities and global opportunities. SKYGOLD is poised to sustain its growth momentum and unlock further potential in the gold manufacturing space.

SKYGOLD, at the CMP the stock is trading at P/E of 30 times FY2026 earnings projections, offers significant growth potential with underutilized capacity, margin expansion opportunities, and export-driven growth.  We initiate coverage with a ‘BUY’ rating and TP of INR 568 (65x FY25E P/E), a 46% upside from its CMP.

Industry Overview
India Jewellery Market
The Indian jewellery market value was estimated at 85.52% bn in 2023 and is expected to grow at CAGR of 5.7% from FY24 to FY30. Indian jewellery market accounted for the share of 24.41% of the world jewellery market. While gold jewellery accounted for revenue share of 77.72%. According the ICRA, India’s gold jewellery consumption to grow 14-18% in FY25 led by favourable realisations and volume growth.

Gold price have seen significant fluctuations and increase over the past three years. In FY22, the prices of gold was 52,670 Rs (24 Karat/gram), which surged to 65,330 in FY23 and further increased to 80,215 Rs in FY24. This increment is prices was can be attributed to various factor such as e Russia Ukraine war, the US Federal Reserve’s rate increases, and inflation. These geopolitical and economic factors have significantly influenced the gold market, leading to the observed price hikes.

Jewellery consumption in India
Jewellery consumption in India has witnessed significant growth, with the overall jewellery market growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9-10% from FY18 to FY24. The organized market, however, has outperformed, recording a robust CAGR of over 17%. The past three years have been especially lucrative for the industry, with a notable 20-30% value growth in both the total and organized segments.

Industry projections indicate that the jewellery market in India is expected to maintain a healthy growth trajectory, with an estimated CAGR of 15-16%, reaching a market size of USD 145 billion by FY28. Within this, the organized/formal market is expected to grow even faster, with a CAGR exceeding 20%, contributing to around 42-43% of the total market.

Indian jewellery consumption can be categorized into three primary segments: bridal, everyday wear, and fashion jewellery. Each of these segments has its own set of characteristics, catering to different consumer needs. National jewellery chains like PC Jeweller and Kalyan Jewellers primarily serve the bridal segment, offering high-value, traditional pieces. In contrast, brands like CaratLane and Tanishq have established themselves as key players in the everyday wear segment, especially targeting working women with more affordable, versatile jewellery options. Additionally, smaller, independent retailers focus on a niche market, emphasizing specialization and customization to cater to their loyal customer base.

The industry’s growth is driven by the increasing preference for organized retail and the rising demand for daily wear and customized jewellery, presenting opportunities for both established players and emerging brands.

Domestic Demand for Gold
Gold demand in India is primarily driven by three key segments: jewellery, gold coins, and bars. On average, jewellery accounts for about 77% of total demand, with bars and coins making up the remainder. The cultural importance of gold, particularly its role in weddings, is a significant factor behind the sustained demand. Gold’s perception as a reliable store of value, especially during periods of economic uncertainty, also makes it an attractive investment option. We expect India’s gold demand to reach 800-900 tonnes in 2024.

Regional Breakup of Gold Demand
In India, gold jewellery remains the most preferred form of gold, with cultural, religious, and festival-related traditions heavily influencing purchasing decisions. Key occasions like weddings and festivals are the main drivers for gold jewellery consumption, particularly in the South and West regions. The South accounts for 41% of total jewellery demand, while the West contributes 23%. Additionally, rural and semi-urban areas account for 60% of gold jewellery consumption, with a larger share of the population residing in these regions.

The northern region typically has a higher studded gold ratio, contributing to better gross margins. However, marketing expenses and inventory management are more intensive in this market. In contrast, the South’s jewellery market has a lower studded ratio, leading to lower margins but also lower associated costs. Overall, the gold jewellery sector in India has a net profit margin of 3-4%, where capital efficiency plays a key role in maintaining a strong margin profile at the player level.

Income Statement Historical Forecasted
Years (Cr) Mar-22 A Mar-23 A Mar-24 A Mar-25E Mar-26E Mar-27E
Revenue from operation 786 1,154 1,745 3,299 5,179 6,474
Growth YoY% 47% 51% 89% 57% 25%
COGS 757 1,104 1,641 3068 4816 6021
Gross profit 29 50 105 231 363 453
Gross margin (%) 3.64% 4.31% 6.00% 7.00% 7.02% 7.00%
Employee cost 3 5 13 26 40 50
Other expenses 5 8 14 26 41 52
EBITDA 20 36 77 179 282 352
EBITDA margin (%) 2.58% 3.15% 4.43% 5.43% 5.45% 5.43%
Depreciation 1 1 6 8 11 13
EBIT 19 35 71 171 271 339
EBIT margin (%) 2.44% 3.02% 4.06% 5.19% 5.23% 5.23%
Interest cost 8 11 21 27 25 24
Other income 11 1 4 26 5 6
PBT 22 25 54 170 251 321
Tax 5 6 14 43 63 80
Tax rate (%) 21.93% 25.66% 25.16% 25% 25% 25%
PAT 17 19 40 128 188 240
PAT margin (%) 2.16% 1.61% 2.32% 3.87% 3.64% 3.71%
EPS 15.78 17.32 35.03 8.74 12.90 16.47
No. of equity shares 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6
Balance Sheet                                Historical
Years (Cr) Mar-20 A Mar-21 A Mar-22 A Mar-23 A Mar-24 A
Assets 
Gross Block 29,768 31,496 32,530 56,083 60,787
Accumulated Depreciation 14,024 16,508 18,783 28,141 32,922
Net Fixed Assets 15,744 14,988 13,747 27,942 27,865
CWIP 1,415 1,497 2,936 4,143 7,735
Investments 37,488 42,945 42,035 49,184 57,296
Current Assets 
Inventories 3,214 3,049 3,532 5,444 5,318
Trade receivables 1,978 1,280 2,034 3,285 4,597
Cash Equivalents 29 3,047 3,042 2,748 2,827
Short term loans 766 1,293 2,753 179 54
Other Asset 2,994 3,276 4,575 7,181 9,612
Total Assets 63,628 71,375 74,654 1,00,106 1,15,304
Equity and Liability 
Equity Capital 151 151 151 157 157
Reserves 49,262 52,350 55,182 74,443 85,479
Total Equity  49,413 52,501 55,333 74,600 85,636
Borrowings  184 541 426 1,248 119
Current Liability 
Trade Payables 7,499 10,168 9,765 13,676 16,988
Advance from customer 468 1,017 1,124 1,462 1,463
Other Liabilities  6,045 7,148 8,006 9,120 11,098
Total Liabilities  63,609 71,375 74,654 1,00,106 1,15,304
Cash Flow                                  Historical
Years (Cr) Mar-20 A Mar-21 A Mar-22 A Mar-23 A Mar-24 A
Cash from Operating Activity 
Profit from operations 7,503 5,531 5,832 13,176 18,676
Receivables 340 696 -764 -1,270 -1,316
Inventory 109 165 -483 -1,050 125
Payables -2,155 2,680 -396 2,491 3,321
Loans Advances -1 -6 -8 1 -3
Other WC items -863 801 -1,162 -269 -406
Working capital changes -2570 4336 -2813 -97 1721
Direct taxes -1,438 -1,011 -1,178 -2,265 -3,597
Cash from Operating Activity  3,495 8,856 1,841 10,814 16,800
Cash from Investing Activity 
Fixed assets purchased -3,437 -2,370 -3,459 -8,065 -9,200
Fixed assets sold 37 42 136 109 45
Investments purchased -44,205 -44,869 -60,525 -66,597 -65,736
Investments sold 46,969 42,920 63,579 61,605 61,933
Interest received 96 67 174 313 372
Divend received 4 3 3 6 6
Acquisition of companies -15 -65 -146 0 -80
Other investing items -5 -3,019 -1 3,808 795
Cash from Investing Activity  -556 -7,291 -239 -8,821 -11,865
Cash from Financing Activity 
Proceeds from borrowings 0 380 0 831 0
Repayment of borrowings -46 0 -110 0 -1,183
Interest paid fin -136 -102 -130 -186 -147
Dividend Paid -2,417 -1,812 -1,359 -1,812 -2,719
Financial liabilities -10 -11 -8 -47 -13
Other financial items -497 0 0 0 0
Cash from Financing Activity  -3106 -1545 -1607 -1214 -4062
Net Cash Flow -167 20 -5 779 873

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Repco home Q2FY25: Strong QoQ Surge in Sanctions and Disbursements

Repco home Q2FY25: Strong QoQ Surge in Sanctions and Disbursements

Company Name: Repco Home Finance Ltd | NSE Code: REPCOHOME | BSE Code: 535322 | 52 Week high/low:595 / 366 | CMP: INR 462 | Mcap: INR 2,904 Cr | P/BV – 1.00

About the stock
➡️Repco home finance is registered housing finance company offer individual home loan and loan against property (LAP). Companies target market is Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities and has 48% loan book to salaried segment and rest to non-salaried. Company have regional concentration in south and beyond south its presence in Maharashtra, Gujarat, MP, Orissa, Rajasthan. As of Q4FY24, company have 184 branch and 43 satellite.

Single digit loan book growth while borrowing jump 14% YoY
➡️Repco’s loan book grew 8% YoY (+2% QoQ) to 13,964 Cr led by growth in home loan product. Home loan composition in overall book decline to 74% in Q2FY25 from 76% in Q2FY24 whereas home equity grown to 26% from 24% in Q2FY24.

➡️Sanctions grew 8% YoY while jump 27% QoQ to 926 Cr. While disbursement surged 9% YoY and 27% QoQ to 867 Cr. Sanctions and disbursement deliver solid performance on QoQ basis.

➡️Borrowing growth is double than loan book growth at 14% YoY (+5% QoQ) to 11,463 Cr. Repco has funding mix from National housing bank, commercial bank and repco bank. Commercial banks have 81% weight in overall borrowing.

Book Growth (As on in Cr)  Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%)
Loan Book 13,964 12,922 8% 13,701 2%
Disbursement  867 797 9% 680 27%
Sanctions 926 860 8% 727 27%
Borrowing  11,463 10,047 14% 10,914 5%

NII down on contraction in NIMs and muted book growth; PAT boom on lower provision
➡️Interest income grew 7% YoY (+1% QoQ) to 405 Cr due to surge in yield by 30 bps YoY and loan book expansion. NII down 2% YoY and 1% QoQ to 165 Cr on contraction in NIMs by 30 bps due to higher CoF. PPOP grow modest by 2% YoY (-1% QoQ) to 137 Cr due to decline in topline and higher OpEx growth. PAT boom 15% YoY (+7% QoQ) to 112 Cr on lower provision by 1101%.

Years (in Cr) Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%) Commentry
Interest income  405.11 376.97 7% 400.71 1%
Interest expenses 239.56 207.46 15% 232.98 3%
NII 165.55 169.51 -2% 167.73 -1% led by drop in NIMs and muted book growth
Other income  22.87 6.94 230% 15.54 47%
Total Net income 188.42 176.45 7% 183.27 3%
Employee expenses 28.35 25.45 11% 29.05 -2%
Other OpEx 23.33 17.18 36% 16.18 44%
Total Opex  51.68 42.63 21% 45.23 14%
PPOP 136.74 133.82 2% 138.04 -1% Modest growth on sluggish topline 
Provision -16.02 1.6 -1101% 1.44 -1213%
PBT 152.76 132.22 16% 136.6 12%
Tax expenses  40.25 34.12 18% 31.16 29%
Tax rate  26% 26% 2% 23% 16%
PAT  112.51 98.1 15% 105.44 7% PAT boom on lower provision and higher other income
PAT% 26% 26% 3% 25% 4%
EPS (in Rs) 17.98 15.68 15% 16.85 7%
No. of equity shares  6 6 0% 6 0%

Asset quality improved – GNPA /NPA down (90 bps/60 bps YoY)
➡️During the quarter, asset quality has improved with the decreased in GNPA and NNPA. GNPA down 90 bps YoY and 30 bps QoQ to stood at 4% but still higher than its peers. While NNPA down 60 bps YoY and 10 bps QoQ to stood at 1.6%. Based on observation salaried segment has lower GNPA (2.1%) while non-salaried has higher GNPA (5.7%).

Asset Quality Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (bps) Q1FY25 QoQ (bps)
GNPA 4 4.9 -90 4.3 -30
NNPA 1.6 2.2 -60 1.7 -10

Valuation and key ratio
➡️Currently the stock is trading at 1.00x its book value which is lowest compare it peers and industry median P/BV stood at 2.41x. Company’s NIMs margin has reduced by 30 bps YoY and remain stable QoQ stood at 5.1%. Yield on loan jump 30 bps YoY to stood at 12.1 while CoF grew 40 bps YoY to stood at 8.8%. ROE down 10 bps YoY to 16% while ROA jump 20 bps YoY to 3.3%. company’s capital position remains very strong as CRAR stood at 33.98% which above than the RBI guidelines.

Key metrics  Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (bps) Q1FY25 QoQ (bps)
Yield 12.1 11.8 30 12 10
CoF 8.8 8.4 40 8.6 20
Spread 3.4 3.4 0 3.4 0
NIMs 5.1 5.4 -30 5.1 0
ROA 3.3 3.1 20 3.1 20
ROE 16 16.1 -10 16.3 -30

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Ola Q2FY25: Aggressive Product Expansion with 20 New Models Planned

Ola Q2FY25: Aggressive Product Expansion with 20 New Models Planned

Company Name: Ola Electric Mobility Ltd | NSE Code: OLAELEC | BSE Code: 544225 | 52 Week high/low: 158 / 72.5 | CMP: INR 72.7 | Mcap: INR 32,076 Cr | P/E- –

Robust deliveries growth (74% YoY) but disappoint 21% QoQ
➡️Ola has maintained to be leader in EV 2W segment with 33% market share during Q2FY25 despite aggressive competitive action. Their mass portfolio report solid growth momentum from 0 deliveries in Q2FY24 to 42,074 deliveries and 15% growth QoQ. While premium deliveries decline 26% YoY (down 45% QoQ) to 42,074. This makes the overall deliveries growth of 74% YoY but decline by 21% QoQ to 98,619 due to degrowth in premium portfolio.

➡️E2W penetration has reached a critical inflection point, increasing from 5.8% in June 2024 to 7.5% by September 2024. In scooters, penetration surged from 16.1% to 21.4% over the same period. Key states like UP, Rajasthan, Karnataka, and Maharashtra show penetration rates between 25% and 45%, indicating robust adoption trends.

Solid growth in topline led by growth in deliveries and increased in EV penetration in India
➡️Ola report robust growth in revenue grew by 39% YoY while on QoQ basis decline 26% to 1,214 Cr due to the degrowth in premium portfolio deliveries. This growth is attributed to increased in E2W penetration to 7.5% in Sep 2024 from 5.8% in June 2024.

➡️Gross profit surged 341% YoY to 225 Cr despite reduction in subsidy over one last year to 20.6%. Gross margin improved 1300 bps YoY to 19% due to BOM cost reduction driven by Gen 2 platform.

➡️EBITDA turn to be negative of (379 Cr) due to higher operating cost but it shrink from negative of (527 Cr) in Q2FY24. This impacted by exceptional cost of warranty around 64 Cr and IPO and one off cost of 36 Cr. EBITDA margin stood at -63% vs -90% in Q2FY24. EBIT stood at -511 Cr vs -527 Cr in Q2FY24 while margin at -42% vs -60% in Q2FY.

➡️PAT growth muted at 6% YoY to -495 Cr offset by higher operating cost, depreciation and interest expense while other income grew 104% YoY to 100 Cr. PAT margin stood at -41% vs -60% in Q2FY24.

Years Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%) Commentry
Revenue  1,214 873 39% 1,644 -26% Robust growth on YoY basis but
QoQ decline led by degrowth in deliveries
COGS 989 822 20% 1341 -26%
Gross Profit 225 51 341% 303 -26% Solid growth in GM driven by reduction in BOM cost 
Gross Margin % 19% 6% 1300 bps 18% 10 bps
Employee cost 139 113 23% 123 13%
Other expenses 465 373 25% 385 21%
Total OpEx 604 486 24% 508 19%
EBITDA  -379 -435 13% -205 -85% EBITDA loss shrink on volume expansion and stable OpEx
EBITDA Margin% -63% -90% 2700 bps -40% (2200 bps)
Depreciation 132 92 43% 126 5%
EBIT -511 -527 3% -331 -54% EBIT growth muted due to higher depreciation
EBIT Margin% -42% -60% 1800 bps -20% (2200 bps)
Interest expenses 84 46 83% 67 25%
Other income 100 49 104% 74 35%
PBT -495 -524 -6% -324 53%
Tax expenses 0 0 0
Tax Rate% 0% 0% 0%
PAT -495 -524 6% -324 -53% Bottom line profit shrink led by higher other income 
PAT Margin% -41% -60% 1900 bps -20% (2100 bps)
EPS -1.12 -2.68 58% -1.35 17%
No. of Shares 441.1 195.5 126% 239.2 84%

The company is executing a long-term growth strategy focused on product diversification, expanding distribution and service infrastructure, and driving technology innovation with vertical integration for better product differentiation and cost savings.

➡️ Product Expansion: The company currently leads the market with the largest EV scooter portfolio, featuring 6 models priced between ₹75,000 and ₹150,000. To strengthen its position, it plans to enter other two- and three-wheeler segments, with a goal to launch 20 products in the next two years—one new product each quarter. In August 2024, it introduced the Roadster motorcycle series, which will begin deliveries in March 2025, covering a broad price range of ₹74,999 to ₹249,999.

➡️ Distribution and Service Network: The company operates 782 owned stores, each with a sales rate 2-3 times the industry average, and aims to increase this network to 2,000 stores by March 2025. It recently launched a ‘Network Partner Program’ in September to drive EV adoption across India, with over 1,000 partners already enrolled and plans to reach 10,000 by the end of 2025. Service capacity has also been expanded to handle higher volumes, with 80% of requests now serviced within a day.

➡️ Technology Innovation: Through advancements in its Gen 2 and Gen 3 platforms, the company has reduced its BOM cost by 22.5% and aims for further savings of 20% over the next year. Key innovations include new battery structures, a magnet less motor, and single-board electronics, giving the company a significant edge in performance and cost efficiency.

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Manappuram Q2FY25: solid growth in Gold loan led by higher gold price

Manappuram Q2FY25: solid growth in Gold loan led by higher gold price

Company Name: Manappuram Finance Ltd | NSE Code: MANAPPURAM | BSE Code: 531213 | 52 Week high/low: 230 / 134 | CMP: INR 154 | Mcap: INR 13,048 Cr | P/B- 1.05

About the stock
➡️Manappuram finance Ltd is NBFC engaged in the business of providing gold loan and micro finance loan, vehicle loan etc. Company have strong presence in PAN India with 5,000+ branches.

Solid growth in Gold loan portfolio backed by higher gold prices
➡️Manappuram gold loan portfolio report robust double digit growth of 17% YoY and 3% QoQ to 24,365 Cr led by higher gold prices. While micro finance segment report muted single digit growth of 9% YoY but degrowth 2% QoQ to 10,970 Cr. While other segment such as home loan, vehicle finance and MSME grew 30% YoY, 54% YoY and 13% YoY respectively. The consolidated portfolio grew 17% YoY (+2% QoQ) to 45,716 Cr supported by gold loan with 53% weight in overall AUM portfolio and robust growth.

➡️Consolidated borrowing jump 19% YoY (higher than AUM growth) and remain flat QoQ to 38,476 Cr.

Book Growth (As on)  Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%)
AUM (bn) 45,716 38,951 17% 44,932 2%
Borrowings  38,476 32,237 19% 38,463 0%

NII growth backed by stable NIMs; PAT slowdown on higher provision
➡️Interest income grew 24% YoY (+6% QoQ) to 2,541 Cr led by robust growth in overall AUM. NII surged 20% YoY (+5% QoQ) to 1,635 Cr backed by stable net yield. PPOP jump 19% YoY (+5% QoQ) to 1,033 Cr driven by stable operating expenses 2% QoQ. PAT growth slowdown at 2% YoY and 3% QoQ to 572 Cr on higher provision (118% YoY).

Years (In Cr) Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%) Commentry
Interest income  2,541 2,054 24% 2,403 6%
Interest expenses 906 689 31% 848 7%
NII 1,635 1,365 20% 1,555 5% Led by strong AUM growth 
Other income  96 120 -20% 109 -12%
Total Net income 1,731 1,485 17% 1,664 4%
Employee expenses 448 375 20% 446 0%
Other OpEx 251 244 3% 236 6%
Total Opex  698 618 13% 682 2%
PPOP 1,033 866 19% 981 5% grew by lower Opex 
Provision 260 120 118% 229 14%
PBT 773 747 3% 753 3%
Tax expenses  201 186 8% 196 2%
Tax rate  26% 25% 4% 26% 0%
PAT  572 561 2% 557 3% High provision slowdown PAT
PAT% 22% 26% -16% 22% -2%
EPS 6.76 6.62 2% 6.57 3%
No. of equity shares  85 85 0% 85 0%

Asset quality deteriorated – jump in GNPA/NNPA
➡️MFL asset quality deteriorated as GNPA and NNPA jump further in quarter. GNPA jump 80 bps YoY and 40 bps QoQ to stood 2.4% while NNPA rise 70 bps YoY and 40 bps QoQ to 2.1%. MFL capital position remains strong as CAR stood at 29%, decline 200 bps YoY.

Asset Quality (%) Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (bps) Q1FY25 QoQ (bps)
GNPA 2.4 1.6 80 2 40
NNPA 2.1 1.4 70 1.7 40

Valuation and key ratios
➡️Currently the stock is trading at 1.05x than its book value Rs 148 per share at current market price Rs 154. CoF jump 30 bps YoY but decline 10 bps to 9.2% while net yield rise 10 bps YoY and 20 bps QoQ to stood at 22%. Return profile disappoint as ROE and ROA down 300 bps YoY and 90 bps YoY to stood at 18.6% and 4.4%.

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Aadhar housing Q2FY25: Solid growth in book driven Retail Home and Mortgage Loans

Aadhar housing Q2FY25: Solid growth in book driven Retail Home and Mortgage Loans

Company Name: Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd | NSE Code: AADHARHFC | BSE Code: 544176 | 52 Week high/low: 517 / 292 | CMP: INR 458 | Mcap: INR 19,661 Cr | P/B- –

About the stock
➡️Aadhar housing finance Ltd is primarily engaged in the business of providing low income housing finance. They focused on low income housing segment with ticket size of <Rs 15 lakh. Company added 9 new branches in Q2FY25 makes total to 545 branches across pan India.

Aadhar loan book shine backed by both segment home loan and mortgage loan
➡️Aadhar housing’s loan book report double digit growth of 21% YoY (+5% QoQ) to 22,818 Cr led by robust growth across both segment retail home loan and mortgage loan. Retail home loan contribute 74% of overall loan book, growing 18% YoY (+5% QoQ) to 16,991 Cr. while Retail mortgage loan constitute 26% of overall loan book, growing 31%YoY (+6% QoQ) to 5,826 Cr.

➡️Disbursement grew 18% YoY while QoQ boom 36% to 2,036 Cr on healthy growth in both segment. Retail home loan disbursement shine 33% QoQ and 19% YoY to 1,466 Cr while mortgage disbursement jump 43% QoQ and 16% YoY to 570 Cr.

Book Growth (in Cr) (As on)  Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%)
Loan Book 22,818 18,885 21% 21,726 5%
R. home loan  16,991 14,449 18% 16,246 5%
R. mortgage loan 5,826 4,436 31% 5,481 6%
Disbursement  2,036 1,725 18% 1,497 36%
R. home loan  1,466 1,233 19% 1,100 33%
R. mortgage loan 570 492 16% 397 43%

NII supported by book expansion and NIMS (up 32 bps YoY)
➡️Interest income grew 20% YoY (6% QoQ) to 673 Cr driven by robust retail book growth while portfolio yield remain flattish. NII increased 20% YoY (+8% QoQ) to 3,87 Cr attributed to NIMs expansion by 32 bps YoY. PPOP grew 20% YoY (+11% QoQ) to 306 Cr thanks to higher other income and stable other OpEx. Profitability comes in line with topline, grew 15% YoY (+14% QoQ) to 697 Cr due to higher provision expense (up 771% YoY) wile down 29 bps QoQ.

Years (in Cr) Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%) Commentry
Interest income  673 561 20% 634 6%
Interest expenses 285 239 20% 277 3%
NII 387 322 20% 357 8% expand on book growth and NIMs
Other income  78 53 47% 62 25%
Total Net income 466 375 24% 420 11%
Employee expenses 101 78 29% 95 7%
Other OpEx 59 43 39% 49 20%
Total Opex  160 121 32% 144 11%
PPOP 306 255 20% 276 11% No leverage benefit; in line with NII
Provision 13 2 771% 19 -29%
PBT 293 253 16% 257 14%
Tax expenses  65 56 17% 57 14%
Tax rate  22% 22% 1% 22% 0%
PAT  228 197 15% 200 14% PAT growth on book expansion;
leverage muted, provision up 
PAT% 30% 32% -6% 29% 6%
EPS 5.29 5.00 6% 4.69 13%
No. of equity shares  43 39 9% 43 1%

Asset quality remain flattish QoQ
➡️Aadhar’s asset quality has maintain on YoY and QoQ basis. GNPA down 10 bps YoY but remains flat QoQ to 1.3% while NNPA remains flat YoY and QoQ at 0.9%. This is due to the banking’s NPA cycle is already at lowest point at this point of time.

Asset Quality (%) Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (bps) Q1FY25 QoQ (bps)
GNPA 1.3 1.4 -10 1.3 0
NNPA 0.9 0.9 0 0.9 0

Valuation and key metrics
➡️Yield on loan remain flat at 14% while CoF jump 40 bps YoY and 10 bps QoQ to 8.1%. This result in expansion in NIMs by 32 bps to 8.94% as of Q2FY25. credit cost remain stable at 2.59% YoY while increased by 22 bps QoQ. This result in decline in spread by 40 bps YoY and 10 bps QoQ to 5.9%. While NIMS jump 32 bps YoY and 20 bps QoQ to 9.1%.

Key metrics  (%) Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (bps) Q1FY25 QoQ (bps)
Yield 14 14 0 14 0
CoF 8.1 7.7 40 8 10
NIMs 9.1 8.78 32 8.9 20
ROA 4.4 4.6 -20 4.1 30
ROE 15.7 20 -430 15.9 -20
Spread 5.9 6.3 -40 6 -10

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Chola fin Q2FY25: Robust NII growth backed by healthy growth in book

Chola fin Q2FY25: Robust NII growth backed by healthy growth in book

Company Name: Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Ltd | NSE Code: CHOLAFIN | BSE Code: 511243 | 52 Week high/low: 1,652 / 1,011 | CMP: INR 1,302 | Mcap: INR 1,09,455 Cr | P/B- 5.06

About the stock
➡️Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company is one of the premier diversified non-banking finance companies in India, engaged in providing vehicle finance, home loans and Loan against property.

Robust double digit growth in book (33% YoY) driven by vehicle loan, LAP and home loan
➡️Chola fin’s book report a strong double digit growth of 335 YoY (+6% QoQ) to 1,64,642 Cr led by robust growth in vehicle loan, LAP and home loan. Vehicle loan constitute 56% of overall loan book, growing 22% YoY (+4% QoQ ) to 92,012 Cr. While LAP and home loan contribute 20%/10%, growing by 41% YoY (+8% QoQ)/47% YoY (+9% QoQ) to 34,824 Cr/15,892 Cr. While other segment report strong growth but have low weight in overall loan book followed by Consumer and small enterprise loan (up 67% YoY), SME (up 47%) YoY), secured business and personal loan (up 123% YoY).

➡️Disbursement grew muted double didgit growth of 13% YoY and remain flat QoQ to 24,314 Cr due to slowdown in vehicle disbursal. Vehicle disbursement have alomost 50% weight of overall disbursement, report muted 5% YoY growth and degrowth on QoQ basis by 3% to 12,336 Cr. While LAP grew 35% YoY (+11% QoQ) to 4,295 Cr and consumer and small enterprise grew 26% YoY (+3% QoQ) to 3,588 Cr. While this robust growth in LAP and CSEL offset by muted growth in vehicle finance.

➡️Borrowing growth in line with loan book growth by 32% YoY (+5% QoQ) to 1,57,794 Cr while majorly funded by bank loan, debentures and Securitisation.

Book Growth (As on)  Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%)
AUM 1,64,642 1,24,246 33% 1,55,442 6%
Disbursement  24,314 21,542 13% 24,332 0%
Borrowings  1,57,794 1,19,470 32% 1,49,902 5%

NII and PAT grew on loan book expansion & NIMs expansion; Leverage muted and provision up
➡️Interest income grew 37% YoY (+7% QoQ) to 5,768 Cr driven by robust loan book growth and expansion in yield by 30 bps YoY. NII increased 35% YoY (+5% QoQ) to 2,713 Cr attributed to NIMs expansion by 10 bps YoY. PPOP grew robust at 35% YoY (+4% QoQ) to 1,922 Cr thanks to higher other income and while operating leverage have no impact. PAT grew 26% YoY (+2% QoQ) to 963 Cr due to higher provision expense (up 56% YoY).

Years (in Cr) Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%) Commentry 
Interest income  5,767.96 4,220.52 37% 5,375.27 7%
Interest expenses 3,055.13 2,205.20 39% 2,795.65 9%
NII 2,712.83 2,015.32 35% 2,579.62 5% YoY growth led by AUM growth & NIMs expansion
Other income  524.79 351.37 49% 453.7 16%
Total Net income 3,237.62 2,366.69 37% 3,033.32 7%
Employee expenses 794.65 570.24 39% 683.45 16%
Other OpEx 520.87 375.89 39% 499.95 4%
Total Opex  1315.52 946.13 39% 1183.4 11%
PPOP 1,922.10 1,420.56 35% 1,849.92 4% Solid growth on book growth; OpEx leverage flat
Provision 623.52 399.81 56% 581.43 7%
PBT 1,298.58 1,020.75 27% 1,268.49 2%
Tax expenses  335.53 258.26 30% 326.26 3%
Tax rate  26% 25% 2% 26% 0%
PAT  963.05 762.49 26% 942.23 2% PAT growth on book expansion;
leverage muted, provisions up
PAT% 15% 17% -8% 16% -5%
EPS 11.45 9.27 24% 11.21 2%
No. of equity shares  84.075 82.285 2% 84.06 0%

Asset quality disappoint on QoQ basis (GNPA/NNPA up 21 bps/ 14 bps QoQ)
➡️Chola fin’s asset quality has maintain on YoY basis but decline sequentially. GNPA down 13 bps YoY but jump 21 bps QoQ to 2.83% while NNPA disappoint YoY as well as sequentially by 1 bps/14 bps to 1.59%. Its normal effect due to the lower base on last quarter. Provision coverage ratio decline 280 bps YoY (-100 bps QoQ) to 44.5%.

Asset Quality (%) Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (bps) Q1FY25 QoQ (bps)
GNPA 2.83 2.96 -13 2.62 21
NNPA 1.59 1.58 1 1.45 14

Valuation and key metrics
➡️Currently the stock is trading at multiple of 5.06 Price to book value. Yield on loan jump 30 bps YoY (down 10 bps QoQ) to 14.6% while CoF rise 20 bps YoY (up 10 bps QoQ) to 7.1%. This result in expansion in NIMs by 10 bps YoY to 7.5% but decline on QoQ basis by 10 bps.

Key metrics (%) Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (bps) Q1FY25 QoQ (bps)
Yield 14.6 14.3 30 14.7 -10
CoF 7.1 6.9 20 7 10
NIMs 7.5 7.4 10 7.6 -10
Credit Cost 1.4 1.3 10 1.5 -10
ROA 2.2 2.4 -20 2.4 -20
ROE 0 0
PCR 44.5 47.3 -280 45.5 -100
CAR 19.5 1950 18.03 147

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HUDCO Q3FY25 Results Update: Robust Performance Drives Strong Growth
Equities, Markets, Research, Research Reports, Result Updates - October 30, 2024

HUDCO Q2FY24: Solid loan book growth driven by urban infra

HUDCO Q2FY24: Solid loan book growth driven by urban infra

Company Name: Housing & Urban Development Corporation Ltd | NSE Code: HUDCO | BSE Code: 540530 | 52 Week high/low: 354 / 74.0 | CMP: INR 216 | Mcap: INR 43,319 Cr | P/BV – 2.53

About the stock
▶️Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd (HUDCO) is public sector enterprise primarily engaged in the business of financing housing and urban development projects in India. The company headquartered in national capital, New Delhi and operate through 21 regional offices and 11 development offices across India.
Apart from financing business, it also provides consultancy services for government programmes and advising on urban and regional planning, design and development, environmental engineering and social development.

Healthy expansion in loan book (up 36% YoY), While Sanctions and Disbursement grew multiple fold
➡️HUDCO’s loan book has report a solid growth during quarter, growing 36% YoY (+7% Qoq) to 1,11,068 Cr led by strong growth in urban infra book. Urban infra book jumped 11% YoY (+1% QoQ) to 66,857 Cr while affordable housing segment muted at 3% YoY growth and 1% QoQ to 44,211 Cr. This lead to increased the urban infra weight to 60% in overall loan book while affordable housing reduced by same.

➡️Sanctions jump 9.8x fold YoY (+442% QoQ) to 76,472 Cr driven by pure urban infra growth. Sanction under urban infra grew 929% YoY (+442% QoQ) to 76,472 Cr. while affordable housing contribute 0% during the quarter.

➡️Disbursement report solid expansion grew 5.8x YoY (+ 72% QoQ) to 21,699 Cr supported by urban infra segment. Urban infra segment disbursement jump 538% YoY (+65% QoQ) to 20,583 Cr while Affordable housing disbursement grew 124% YoY (+752% QoQ) to 1,116 Cr.

➡️Borrowing grew higher than the loan book growth, grew 47% YoY (+43% QoQ) to 93,364 Cr. Borrowing is the mix of international and domestic sources to meet business growth and reduce the cost of borrowing.

Book Growth (As on)  Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%)
Loan 111068 81594 36% 1,03,815 7%
Urban Infra 66,857 38,674 73% 60,047 11%
Affordable housing 44,211 42,920 3% 43,768 1%
Sanction 76,472 7,808 879% 14,097 442%
Urban Infra 76,472 7,435 929% 14,097 442%
Affordable housing 0 373 -100% 0 #DIV/0!
Disbursement  21,699 3,723 483% 12,625 72%
Urban Infra 20,583 3,225 538% 12,494 65%
Affordable housing 1,116 498 124% 131 752%
Borrowings  93,364.67 63,318.46 47% 65,187.48 43%

NII jump 27% YoY driven book expansion; PAT boom on lower provision and higher other income
➡️Interest income grew 33% YoY (+13% QoQ) to 2,459 Cr led by book expansion while yield down 10 bps YoY to 9.24%. NII jump 27% YoY (+12% QoQ) to 797 Cr led by healthy growth in book while NIMs decline 21 bps YoY and stable QoQ to 3.01%. PPOP increased 32% YoY (+15% QoQ) to 767cr on stable OpEx growth. PAT boom 52% YoY (+23% QoQ) to 689 Cr driven by lower provision (down 749% YoY) and higher other income (up 81% YoY).

Years  Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%)
Interest income  2,459 1,844 33% 2,175 13%
Interest expenses 1,662 1,217 37% 1,464 14%
NII 797 627 27% 711 12%
Other income  67 37 81% 23 196%
Total Net income 864 664 30% 734 18%
Employee expenses 66 55 19% 40 65%
Other OpEx 31 30 5% 28 14%
Total Opex  97 85 14% 67 44%
PPOP 767 579 32% 666 15%
Provision -233 -27 749% -19 1147%
PBT 1,000 606 65% 685 46%
Tax expenses  311 155 101% 127 145%
Tax rate  31% 26% 22% 19% 68%
PAT  689 452 52% 558 23%
PAT% 27% 24% 14% 25% 7%
EPS 3.44 2.26 52% 2.79 23%
No. of equity shares  200 200 0% 200 0%

Asset quality stood best in the industry – GNPA/NPNPA down 132 bps/18 bps YoY
➡️HUDCO’s asset quality stand best in the industry with GNPA and NNPA at 2.04% and 0.31% respectively. GNPA/NNPA decline 132 bps/18 bps YoY and 38 bps/2 bps QoQ. Further private sector book decline to 1.83% from 2,50% in FY24 while Government backed book increased to 98.17% from 97.50% in FY24. This will lead to decline default of loans as government book is highly secured. Provision coverage ratio decline 28 bps and 101 QoQ to stood at 85.6% as of Q2FY25.

Asset Quality Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (bps) Q1FY25 QoQ (bps)
GNPA 2.04 3.36 -132 2.42 -38
NNPA 0.31 0.49 -18 0.33 -2

Valuations and key metrics
➡️Currently the stock is trading at 2.53x price to book value. NIMs contract by 21 bps YoY and remain stable QoQ to 3.01% led by the expansion in CoF and decline in yield. ROA jump by 20 bps YoY and 16 bps QoQ to 2.4% while ROE rise 315 bps YoY and 164 bps QoQ to 14.56%. Company capital position CAR down 1614 bps YoY to stood at 57.65% but still above the RBI guidelines.

Key metrics  Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (bps) Q1FY25 QoQ (bps)
Yield  9.24 9.34 -10 9.06 18
CoF 7.46 7.63 -17 7.36 10
NIMs 3.01 3.22 -21 3 1
ROA 2.4 2.2 20 2.24 16
ROE 14.56 11.41 315 12.92 164
PCR 85.6 85.88 -28 86.61 -101
CAR 57.65 73.79 -1614 5765

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Equities, Markets, Research, Research Reports, Result Updates - October 28, 2024

Shriram Q2FY25 Loan Book Growth 20% YoY led by CV, PV and MSME segment

Shriram Q2FY25 Loan Book Growth 20% YoY led by CV, PV and MSME segment

Company Name: Shriram Finance Ltd | NSE Code: SHRIRAMFIN | BSE Code: 511218 | 52 Week high/low: 3,652 / 1,851 | CMP: INR 3,093 | Mcap: INR 1,16,286 Cr | P/BV – 2.37

About the stock
➡️Shriram Finance Ltd., a significant entity within the Shriram Group, operates extensively in consumer finance, stock broking, distribution, life insurance, and general insurance. Founded in 1979, the company stands as India’s largest non-bank financial company (NBFC) in retail asset finance. It is a leader in structured financing of used commercial vehicles and two-wheelers, specializing in serving small business owners and road transport operators.

Robust loan book growth backed by healthy growth in CV, PV and MSME
➡️Shriram’s loan book has grew by double digit at 20% YoY (+4% QoQ) to 2,43,043 Cr supported by growth in CV, PV and MSME segment.

➡️Commercial vehicle constitute 46% of the overall loan book, growing by 14% YoY (+2% QoQ) to 1,12,194 Cr. Passenger vehicle segment constitute 20% of overall segment, growing by 23% YoY (+7% QoQ) to 49,000 Cr. While MSME segment constitute 13% of overall segment, growing by healthy growth of 52% YoY (+12% QoQ) to 31,300 Cr. This three segment led the solid growth in overall loan book in Q2FY25.

➡️Rest other segment report good growth but command a low weight in overall loan book. Construction equipment grew at 17% YoY followed by Farm equipment at 28% YoY, 2W at 26% YoY, gold at 12% while personal loan degrow by 6% YoY.

➡️Borrowing overtake the loan growth, increased by 26% YoY (+8% QoQ) to 2,078 bn driven by deposit growth of 23% YoY (+6% QoQ).

Book Growth (As on)  Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%)
Loan 2,43,043 2,02,641 20% 2,33,444 4%
Borrowings (bn) 2,078.20 1,653.40 26% 1,917.50 8%
Deposit (bn) 502 408 23% 474.9 6%

Double digit growth in NII backed by loan book expansion; while NIMS down
➡️NII report a double digit healthy growth of 19% YoY (+4% QoQ) to 5,464 Cr driven by loan book expansion only while NIMs contract for the quarter. NIMs down by 19 bps YoY (-5 bps QoQ) to 8.74% due to the expansion in CoF.

➡️PPOP jump 15% YoY (+3% QoQ) to 3,986 Cr, Operating efficiency benefit lagged as total OpEx increased 20% due to rise in employee cost and other expense.

➡️PAT boost by 18% YoY (+5% QoQ) same in line with topline growth to 2,071 Cr. This growth is only attributed to book expansion.

Years  Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%) Commentry
Interest income  9,814.50 8,216.56 19% 9,362.79 5% Driven by healthy loan book growth 
Interest expenses 4,350.42 3,621.86 20% 4,128.91 5%
NII 5,464.08 4,594.70 19% 5,233.88 4% Loan book support growth; NIMs down 
Other income  282.18 347.89 -19% 234.28 20%
Total Net income 5,746.26 4,942.59 16% 5,468.16 5%
Employee expenses 906.67 790.38 15% 868.35 4%
Other OpEx 853.07 671.38 27% 745.67 14%
Total Opex  1759.74 1461.76 20% 1614.02 9%
PPOP 3,986.52 3,480.83 15% 3,854.14 3% In line with topline growth; OpEx efficiency lagged
Provision 1,234.99 1,128.55 9% 1,187.55 4%
PBT 2,751.53 2,352.28 17% 2,666.59 3%
Tax expenses  680.27 601.44 13% 686 -1%
Tax rate  25% 26% -3% 26% -4%
PAT  2,071.26 1,750.84 18% 1,980.59 5% PAT boost with topline; no OpEx benefit 
PAT% 21% 20% 0% 21% -1%
EPS 55.10 46.65 18% 52.69 5%
No. of equity shares  37.59 37.53 0% 37.59 0%

Asset quality improved – GNPA/NNPA down (47 bps/16 bps YoY)
➡️Shriram’s asset quality has been improved during the quarter as GNPA and NNPA are in downward trajectory. GNPA/NNPA decline 47 bps/ 16 bps YoY while 7 bps/ 7 bps QoQ to stood at 5.32%/2.64% as of Q2FY25. Provision coverage ratio decline by 140 bps YoY while on QoQ up 55 bps to 51.7% vs 53.1% in Q2FY24.

Asset Quality Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY bps) Q1FY25 QoQ (bps)
GNPA 5.32 5.79 -47 5.39 -7
NNPA 2.64 2.8 -16 2.71 -7

Valuation and Key metrics
➡️Currently the stock is trading at 2.37x price to book value. NIMs contract by 1 bps YoY and 5 bps QoQ to 8.74% led by the expansion in CoF. ROA disappoint down by 6 bps YoY and QoQ both to 3.06% while ROE rise 69 bps YoY and remain flattish QoQ to 16%. Company capital position CAR down 200 bps YoY to stood at 20.16% but still above the RBI guidelines.

Key metrics  Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (bps) Q1FY25 QoQ (bps)
NIMs 8.74 8.93 -19 8.79 -5
ROA 3.06 3.12 -6 3.12 -6
ROE 16 15.31 69 16.03 -3
PCR 51.7 53.1 -140 51.15 55
CAR 20.16 22.15 -199 20.29 -13

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