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BRICS-backed bank plans first Indian rupee-denominated bond by end-March
Banking, Currency, Markets - October 9, 2025

BRICS-backed bank plans first Indian rupee-denominated bond by end-March

BRICS-backed bank plans first Indian rupee-denominated bond by end-March

In a significant move towards enhancing the international presence of BRICS currencies, the New Development Bank (NDB), established by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, plans to issue its debut rupee-denominated bond in the domestic Indian market by March 2026.. This initiative aims to raise between $400 million and $500 million through 3- to 5-year bonds.

Strategic Objectives
The NDB’s decision to issue rupee-denominated bonds aligns with its strategy to increase local currency lending among BRICS nations. The bank aims to provide 30% of its financial commitments in member countries’ national currencies by 2026. This move is also part of broader efforts to promote the international use of BRICS currencies and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in global trade and finance. The planned issuance comes after previous fundraising efforts in Chinese yuan and South African rand. The NDB is in advanced discussions with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for final approvals, although it remains unclear if full government consent has been secured.

Market Conditions and Currency Dynamics
As of May 2025, the Indian rupee was trading at approximately 85.27 per U.S. dollar, reflecting a modest strengthening against the greenback. This favorable exchange rate could enhance the appeal of rupee-denominated bonds to international investors, potentially leading to increased demand and favorable pricing for the upcoming NDB issuance.

Potential Impact on Indian Financial Markets
The NDB’s debut rupee bond is expected to boost liquidity and investor interest in India’s bond market. Similar instruments from institutions like the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation (IFC) have historically seen strong investor interest, indicating a positive reception for such offerings. Additionally, the issuance aligns with the Reserve Bank of India’s efforts to manage liquidity in the banking system. In February 2025, the RBI announced a $10 billion three-year dollar/rupee swap auction to address ongoing cash shortages, infusing approximately 870 billion rupees into the system. The NDB’s bond issuance could complement these efforts by providing an alternative investment avenue and contributing to overall market stability.

Investor Considerations
Investors should monitor the NDB’s bond issuance closely, as it represents a novel opportunity in the Indian fixed-income market. Key factors to consider include:
* Credit Rating: The NDB’s creditworthiness will influence the bond’s risk profile and yield expectations. Investors should assess the bank’s financial health and historical performance.
* Currency Risk: While the bond will be denominated in Indian rupees, the NDB’s international backing may mitigate some currency risk. However, fluctuations in the rupee’s value against other currencies could impact returns.
* Market Demand: The level of investor interest in the NDB’s bond will affect its pricing and yield. A strong demand could lead to favorable terms for the bank and investors alike.
* Regulatory Approvals: Final approval from the RBI and the Indian government is crucial for the issuance. Delays or changes in regulatory conditions could impact the timeline and structure of the bond.

Conclusion
The NDB’s plan to issue its first Indian rupee-denominated bond marks a significant step in promoting the international use of BRICS currencies and diversifying investment opportunities in India’s financial markets. While the initiative holds promise for enhancing liquidity and investor interest, potential investors should carefully evaluate the associated risks and monitor developments related to regulatory approvals and market conditions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Balanced Portfolio in a Volatile Era: How to Allocate in Late 2025

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Rupee Surge and the RBI Hold: What It Means for Indian Investors
Banking, Currency, Economy, Markets - October 6, 2025

Rupee Surge and the RBI Hold: What It Means for Indian Investors

Rupee Surge and the RBI Hold: What It Means for Indian Investors

On October 1, 2025 the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.50% and retained a neutral stance, while revising its real GDP forecast for fiscal 2025–26 upwards to 6.8% and trimming inflation projections. The decision was framed as a “dovish pause” that balanced upside growth revisions against still-benign inflation signals. The same day, the Indian rupee delivered its strongest simple daily gain in two weeks, closing around ₹88.69 per USD, as the U.S. dollar weakened amid geopolitical and US-political uncertainty. Indian equity indices also responded positively, with the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 up roughly 0.9% on the day.

Why the RBI hold matters for markets
A central bank decision to pause (rather than hike) does more than freeze borrowing costs — it signals the path of future policy and affects risk appetite. By holding at 5.50% while revising growth upwards, the RBI has telegraphed that inflation is under enough control to allow a lenient stance if growth needs support. For investors this means:
* Equities: A neutral stance plus stronger growth forecasts typically supports higher earnings expectations for cyclical sectors (private consumption, banking, capital goods). The immediate market reaction — a near 1% rise in headline indices — reflects this linkage.
* Fixed income: Hints of future easing can pressure bond yields lower over time, but in the short run yields rose: India’s 10-year G-sec yield moved to the mid 6.5% area (around 6.52–6.59% on Oct 1), reflecting recent supply and global yield dynamics. That rise suggests spillovers from global rates and near-term liquidity rather than domestic policy surprise alone.
* FX: The rupee’s modest bounce was aided more by a softer U.S. dollar and potential RBI intervention than by a structural reversal. The central bank’s willingness to stabilise FX via state-bank dollar sales (if necessary) remains important given India’s open-economy exposures.

The rupee move — temporary reprieve or trend change?
The rupee’s ₹88.69 close on October 1 marked a technical recovery after a run of losses, but several factors argue caution before calling a structural reversal. First, India’s trade balance and dollar demand from importers and oil bills remain material; second, global dollar strength and yields set the backdrop for capital flows. ANZ and other banks flagged that a gradual depreciation remains a reasonable baseline absent large positive external shocks. Therefore, investors should treat the October 1 rally as a stabilising move, not definitive appreciation.

Sector and portfolio implications — practical takeaways
* Banks and financials: A neutral RBI stance plus growth upgrades typically favour loan growth and credit demand. Banking stocks often lead short-term rallies, but watch net interest margin (NIM) sensitivity to future rate cuts. If the RBI moves to ease later, NIM compression is a medium-term risk; however, higher loan volumes may offset some margin pressure.
* Exporters & IT services: Exporters benefit from a stable or weaker rupee. A sharper rupee depreciation supports reported rupee revenue for US-dollar earners; conversely, a strengthening rupee can compress margins. Given the RBI’s interventions and global dollar drivers, exporters should hedge near-term FX exposures selectively.
* Defensive consumer and domestic plays: Stronger growth forecasts support consumption themes—FMCG, retail and autos—but margin pressure from input inflation remains the watchpoint.
* Fixed income investors: With 10-year yields near 6.5–6.6%, investors must weigh duration risk versus yield pick-up. Shorter-dated government papers and dynamic bond funds offer ways to capture yields if the market expects eventual easing. Institutional investors should watch primary G-Sec supply calendars and CCIL indicative yields for yield curve shifts.

Risks and what to monitor next
Investors should track: RBI forward guidance — any explicit timing for cuts; inflation prints month-by-month to confirm the 2.6%/lower inflation trajectory the RBI signalled; external flows (FPI flows) and the US dollar index (which was ~97.6 on Oct 1) because global liquidity will dominate FX moves; and 10-year G-sec yields which set borrowing cost expectations for corporates. Market participants should prepare for volatility around US macro and political developments that have outsized short-term FX and rate implications.

Conclusion
The RBI’s October 1, 2025 hold with an upward GDP tweak provides a constructive backdrop for growth-oriented allocations in India, but the rupee’s bounce looks tactical rather than decisive. Prudent investors should overweight cyclicals and credit plays that benefit from growth if valuations permit; hedge significant FX exposure in export/import business models; and manage duration in fixed income, balancing attractive mid-6% yields against potential policy and supply shocks. The central bank bought markets a moment of clarity; the coming weeks of data and global sentiment will determine whether that clarity becomes a durable trend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Activist Investors on Overdrive: The 2025 Surge in Corporate Campaigns

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How India’s Fiscal & Monetary Settings Are Shaping Investment Flows
Banking, Economy, Markets - October 3, 2025

How India’s Fiscal & Monetary Settings Are Shaping Investment Flows

How India’s Fiscal & Monetary Settings Are Shaping Investment Flows

On October 1, 2025 the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee left the repo rate unchanged at 5.50% and described stance as neutral, while upgrading its FY26 GDP forecast to 6.8%. The policy note emphasised “policy space” to support growth if needed. On the fiscal side, the Union Budget 2025–26 set a fiscal-deficit target of 4.4% of GDP (budget estimate) after a Revised Estimate of 4.8% for FY24–25 — reflecting gradual fiscal consolidation ambitions. These headline numbers (repo 5.50%; GDP 6.8%; fiscal deficit 4.4–4.8% of GDP) are the starting point for investor reactions.

Direct transmission to bond markets and yields
Monetary calm — a pause or eventual easing — lowers the expected terminal rate and thus puts downward pressure on sovereign yields, all else equal. India’s 10-year G-sec yield traded around ~6.52% on October 1, 2025, after a brief oscillation driven by supply and global rate moves. Lower domestic policy rates or an explicit easing cycle typically compress short-end yields first; longer maturities respond to expectations for growth, inflation and fiscal financing needs. Because India’s fiscal path still implies sizeable market borrowing (net market borrowings remain a multi-lakh-crore exercise each year), the supply-side of debt can offset some rate easing, keeping the curve steeper than peers. Investors therefore watch the 10-year yield as the principal fulcrum for duration allocation.

Effects on equities — valuation and sectoral tilt
A neutral-to-dovish RBI alongside an upward GDP revision lifts the earnings-growth narrative: cyclical sectors (banks, consumer discretionary, capital goods) benefit from higher projected loan growth and consumption. Equity markets priced this in on Oct 1 with domestic indices rallying on the policy decision and bank-stock strength. But two caveats matter for equity investors: sustained outperformance requires earnings visibility — not just rate psychology — and foreign portfolio investor (FPI) activity can swamp domestic flows in the short term. Valuation multiples (P/E and EV/EBITDA) expand when real yields fall; hence, any durable multiple expansion depends on a credible path to lower real rates without fiscal slippage.

FPI flows: sensitivity to yield differentials and risk
Foreign investors trade across fixed income and equities based on relative reward-adjusted carry and near-term political or macro risk. September 2025 saw net FPI selling in equities (reports show continued net sales in September, though at a slower pace), driven by global risk-off and U.S. policy uncertainty. When India’s real yields are attractive — and global risk-on returns — FPIs buy; when global liquidity tightens or political/frictional risks rise, they exit. Hence the RBI’s communication (clarity on rate path) and the fiscal arithmetic (smaller-than-expected deficits) are both key to stabilising FPI flows. A credible glide-path on deficit reduction can reduce risk premia and entice long-duration foreign buyers of G-secs.

FX and the rupee: two-way pressure
Monetary policy and fiscal strategy combine to determine the rupee’s vulnerability to shocks. A dovish RBI may reduce carry attractiveness relative to the U.S., favouring rupee depreciation; but if dovishness is accompanied by stronger growth and narrowing fiscal deficits, that can offset depreciation pressures through improved capital inflows. On Oct 1, 2025 the rupee staged a technical rebound (closing near ₹88.69/USD) after the RBI pause and dollar softness, yet analysts still warn of gradual depreciation absent a durable improvement in the external current account or steady FPI inflows. In short, FX moves are the net outcome of yield differentials, external balances (oil/imports), and capital flow swings.

Interaction of fiscal policy with investor confidence
Fiscal consolidation commitments — moving fiscal deficit from 4.8% (RE 2024–25) toward 4.4% (BE 2025–26) — matter because investors price sovereign risk via both expected supply and macro credibility. A clear, multi-year plan to reduce deficits without choking growth reduces term premia and encourages long-term foreign holdings of government bonds and listed corporate paper. Conversely, fiscal slippage or unanticipated off-budget liabilities would raise required yields and depress both bond and equity valuations. Transparent issuance calendars and predictable bond supply are therefore as important as headline deficit numbers for market functioning.

Practical takeaways for investors
* Fixed income investors should monitor the 10-year G-sec (≈6.5% range) and RBI guidance; favour short-to-intermediate duration if supply risks persist.
* Equity investors can tactically overweight cyclical sectors if growth revisions sustain; manage risk from potential FPI outflows and currency moves.
* Foreign investors will track fiscal consolidation credibility and real-yield differentials versus the U.S./EM peers before committing longer-duration capital.

Conclusion
India’s current policy mix — an RBI pause at 5.50%, an upgraded growth outlook (6.8%) and a fiscal-deficit glide-path toward ~4.4% — creates a constructive but nuanced backdrop for capital flows. Lower-for-longer policy expectations support equities and lower short-end yields, while fiscal credibility and global risk appetite will determine whether foreign investors return in meaningful size to bonds and stocks. For market participants, the interplay of central-bank signalling, budget execution, and external-flow dynamics will dictate asset allocation decisions in the quarters ahead.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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India’s year-end IPO blitz: risks, rewards and what to watch

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RBI raises loans-against-shares limit fivefold: will it meaningfully deepen market liquidity?
Banking, Economy, Markets - October 1, 2025

RBI raises loans-against-shares limit fivefold: will it meaningfully deepen market liquidity?

RBI raises loans-against-shares limit fivefold: will it meaningfully deepen market liquidity?

On October 1, 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a set of measures to ease capital-market related lending: the ceiling on loans against shares for individuals has been increased from ₹20 lakh to ₹1 crore, and the IPO financing limit per investor has been raised from ₹10 lakh to ₹25 lakh. The governor flagged these as part of broader steps to improve credit flow and deepen market participation.

The mechanics — what these limits mean in practice
“Loan against shares” refers to loans banks or NBFCs extend to borrowers who pledge listed equity as collateral. Historically, regulatory ceilings (like ₹20 lakh) constrained the simple retail and HNI use of equity as a liquidity source. Raising the ceiling to ₹1 crore expands the notional collateral value an individual can mobilise, subject to the lender’s internal margin (loan-to-value, or LTV) rules and credit appraisal. Separately, the higher IPO financing cap (now ₹25 lakh) permits investors to borrow more to subscribe to primary offerings — a direct boost to IPO subscription capacity.

Immediate market and product implications
Banks and retail lenders are likely to respond in two ways: offer larger secured lines against listed portfolios to affluent retail and HNI clients, and relaunch or expand IPO-funding products aimed at active retail investors. This could raise short-term demand for allocations in large upcoming IPOs — for example, the scheduled Tata Capital offering (₹15,511 crore) and other year-end deals — by increasing the pool of financed bids.

Liquidity vs. leverage — the risk trade-off
Easier access to cash via pledged equities increases liquidity for households and corporates, but it also raises systemic leverage and margin-call vulnerability. If lenders set high LTVs (say 50–70% for highly liquid large-cap stocks), a ₹1 crore permissible loan could imply a portfolio value of ₹1.4–2 crore pledged. In falling markets, forced liquidations or margin calls can accelerate selloffs — a classical procyclical effect. The RBI’s move removes a regulatory cap but does not automatically change prudent underwriting: banks still control LTVs, haircuts and concentration limits.

Potential winners and losers
Winners: retail brokers, margin-finance desks, NBFCs and private banks that can scale collateralised lending products; IPO issuers that may see stronger subscription momentum; and large-cap liquid stocks (which make more attractive collateral). Losers/ Risks: highly leveraged retail investors using small-cap holdings as collateral face amplified downside; volatile small-caps might see short-term selling pressure if lenders apply strict haircuts. Sectoral beneficiaries will likely include wealth tech platforms that package IPO financing and banks with dedicated prime-broker desks.

Macro and monetary context
The announcement coincided with the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) communication in which the policy repo rate was left unchanged (reported at 5.5% in some real-time coverage), indicating the central bank’s aim to balance monetary normalcy with targeted structural liquidity measures. By enabling more market-linked lending without broad rate easing, the RBI appears to be nudging credit allocation toward capital-market activity while maintaining overall price and financial stability vigilance.

Regulatory safeguards and open questions
The RBI has also proposed removing regulatory ceilings on lending against listed debt securities — another liberalising step — but the detailed supervisory safeguards (uniform LTV caps, concentration limits across banks, stress testing of pledged collateral) will matter for outcomes. Key open questions: Will lenders broadly adopt high LTVs or remain conservative? How quickly will IPO-financing products scale? And what contingency plans exist for abrupt market corrections triggered by margin calls? The answers will shape whether this becomes a sustainable liquidity expansion or a source of cyclical vulnerability.

Investor takeaway
Retail and HNI investors should treat the higher limits as an opportunity, not an unconditional green light. If considering borrowing against shares or using IPO financing, investors should: check lender LTVs and margin-call terms, avoid pledging concentrated small-cap positions, stress-test portfolios for 20–30% market declines, and use financing selectively for high-conviction, liquid exposures. Financial advisers should re-run scenario analyses (VaR / stress tests) before recommending leveraged solutions.

Conclusion
RBI’s decision on October 1, 2025 to raise the lending caps against equities to ₹1 crore and lift IPO financing to ₹25 lakh is a clear attempt to deepen capital-market intermediation and ease short-term funding frictions. It promises greater market liquidity and new product flows, but also reinstates an age-old trade-off between liquidity and leverage. The net effect will depend on how prudently banks price risk and how retail participants manage leverage in a potentially volatile market environment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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LG Electronics’ India unit IPO: valuation, strategy and sector implications

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Why Indian Markets Bounced After a 7-Session Losing Streak
Banking, Economy, Markets - September 30, 2025

Why Indian Markets Bounced After a 7-Session Losing Streak

Why Indian Markets Bounced After a 7-Session Losing Streak

On Tuesday, September 30, 2025, Indian equity benchmarks staged a modest recovery after a seven-session slide. The Nifty 50 rose to 24,677.9 and the BSE Sensex moved to 80,469.39 in early trade — a small rebound that stopped a run of losses and reflected sector-specific buying rather than a broad risk-on shift.

What triggered the rebound: banks and metals
Two visible threads explain the recovery. First, financials — particularly public sector banks — led buying as market participants priced in regulatory changes that make credit more flexible and encourage lending. Public sector bank indices rose noticeably, reflecting expectations of easing credit conditions and better capital access for lenders. Second, metal stocks rallied on a softer U.S. dollar and commodity dynamics that improve dollar-priced commodity returns for rupee investors, boosting the metal index by around 1% on the day. Together these pockets of strength produced enough index weight to nudge the benchmarks higher.

The RBI’s role: targeted easing, not looser supervision
A critical proximate driver was a set of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) circulars published around September 30 that relax specific lending rules while strengthening oversight in other areas. The changes allow banks to revise some components of small-business loan spreads more frequently, let borrowers switch to fixed-rate loans at reset, and broaden permissible working-capital lending against gold for businesses that use gold as raw material. The package is explicitly designed to improve credit flow to MSMEs and gold-intensive industries without compromising supervisory oversight. Markets interpreted those moves as supportive for lenders’ core business — hence the banking sector rally.

How big is the market move, really?
The moves were modest: Nifty’s intraday gain was about 0.18% and Sensex added roughly 0.14% in early trade — enough to halt the slide but not to signal a sustained reversal of the recent downtrend. The rebound followed a painful stretch during which Indian indices fell over multiple sessions and experienced their sharpest weekly drops in almost seven months, reflecting a mix of domestic and global headwinds.

The sombre backdrop: foreign investor outflows and macro risks
Despite the knee-jerk rebound, the underlying story remains fragile. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been net sellers in recent weeks and months; data through September shows FPI withdrawals of about ₹7,945 crore in the month, contributing to cumulative net outflows for the year that run into tens of thousands of crores. On some measures, foreign selling in financials and other cyclical segments has been pronounced, and international hedge funds have registered sizeable short-term selloffs in emerging-market Asia — a reminder that domestic relief measures have to work against broader global risk aversion. These flows can blunt or reverse any domestic policy-driven bounce.

What investors should watch now
* RBI communications and MPC outcome (early October): The market is parsing not just the technical circulars but the Monetary Policy Committee messaging. Any signal that the RBI will prioritise growth via liquidity or forbearance could sustain the financials rally; hawkish language would do the opposite.
* FPI flows and dollar/ rupee moves: Continued net foreign outflows or a stronger dollar would keep downward pressure on risk assets and on the rupee, offsetting domestic positives.
* Earnings and valuation checks: Gains concentrated in weighed sectors (banks, metals) can make headline indices look healthier while individual stocks — especially in mid and small caps — remain vulnerable if earnings don’t meet expectations.

Tactical and strategic takeaways
For short-term traders, the rebound offers intraday and swing opportunities in beaten-up bank and metal names, but positions must be protected with tight stops because macro flows can re-assert quickly. For long-term investors, the RBI moves are constructive for credit availability and MSME financing, but they do not negate systemic risks posed by persistent foreign selling and external shocks. A balanced approach — trimming into strength, adding selectively to high-quality franchises with healthy balance sheets, and keeping an allocation to macro hedges (cash/gold or defensive sectors) — is prudent.

Conclusion
The September 30 bounce was real but contained: regulatory tweaks by the RBI acted as a catalyst for sectoral buying in banks and metals, yet the market’s longer-term direction remains hostage to global investor flows and macro signals. The rebound bought breathing room, not certainty — investors should treat it as an opportunity to reassess exposures, not as proof that the sell-off is over.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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PhonePe Files for $1.5B IPO at a $15B Valuation: A New Era for India’s Fintech Investing?

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India’s Financial Sector Eyes 11% Credit Growth in FY25 Backed by RBI Reforms and Stronger Balance Sheets
Banking, Economy, Markets - September 20, 2025

India’s Financial Sector Eyes 11% Credit Growth in FY25 Backed by RBI Reforms and Stronger Balance Sheets

India’s Financial Sector Eyes 11% Credit Growth in FY25 Backed by RBI Reforms and Stronger Balance Sheets

India’s banking and financial services industry is entering FY25 with steady momentum. Based on the latest RBI data and sector reports, national bank credit growth has eased to around 11% year-on-year, compared with nearly 16% in FY24. This moderation is partly cyclical, as interest rate transmission, tighter underwriting, and risk-conscious lending weigh on incremental credit. Yet the underlying message is one of resilience: fundamentals are stronger, capital positions are healthier, and policy support remains a tailwind.

Drivers of the Current Growth Path
As of March 2025, the gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio of public sector banks has declined sharply from 9.11% in March 2021 to 2.58%, indicating a significant improvement in asset quality and a reduction in stressed loans over the past four years. At the same time, the capital-to-risk weighted assets ratio (CRAR) of the banking sector stood at 17.2%, well above the Basel III minimum requirement, showing that banks maintain a strong capital buffer to absorb potential losses and support further credit growth. A key driver of this improved environment is regulatory support. The Reserve Bank of India has recently relaxed Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) requirements, potentially releasing an estimated ₹3 trillion of additional lendable resources into the banking system, which could contribute 1.5–2 percentage points to credit growth in the near term. Simultaneously, the RBI has adjusted risk weights on certain categories of loans, particularly in retail and NBFC exposures, easing capital strain on lenders and allowing for more efficient deployment of funds. Monetary policy also plays a crucial role in shaping credit conditions. After two years of aggressive tightening, the RBI’s stance has shifted to neutral to slightly accommodative. Although the repo rate remains elevated, improving liquidity conditions and softer bond yields provide borrowers with access to relatively cheaper credit. For banks, however, this environment carries the risk of margin compression, as deposit costs—especially on term deposits—remain sticky, potentially narrowing the gap between lending and deposit rates.

Credit Growth Overview
In FY25, overall credit growth in India moderated to approximately 11%, down from 16% in FY24, reflecting a more stabilized lending environment after two years of rapid expansion. During this period, banks extended a total of ₹18.11 trillion in credit, compared with ₹27.56 trillion in the previous fiscal year, indicating a moderation in incremental lending. On the deposit side, total bank deposits increased to ₹20.99 trillion in FY25, slightly lower than ₹27.56 trillion in FY24, suggesting that while deposit mobilization continues, the pace has eased in line with overall credit growth.

Segmental Shifts
In FY25, credit to MSMEs grew by approximately 20%, reaching a total of ₹40 trillion, with public sector banks holding 45.7% of the market share in the micro segment, while private sector banks dominated lending to small and medium-sized enterprises. MSME lending remains the fastest-growing segment, expanding at around 13% year-on-year, supported by government-backed guarantee schemes and a rising demand for working capital. Retail credit continued its upward trajectory, with personal loans comprising about 32% of total credit, largely driven by housing loans. In addition, FinTech NBFCs played a significant role in expanding access to unsecured consumer credit, sanctioning a record 10.9 crore personal loans totaling ₹1,06,548 crore in FY25. In the corporate segment, companies increasingly relied on non-banking financial channels, with nearly half of total funding coming from equity markets, bonds, and NBFC loans rather than traditional bank borrowing. Corporate credit growth has remained modest, around 5–6%, as many companies continue to deleverage or fund projects internally, limiting their demand for new loans. Agricultural credit also expanded steadily, registering growth of 7.3%, with advances reaching ₹23.14 lakh crore, although its pace remains slower compared with retail and MSME segments.
Overall, credit growth across sectors in FY25 presents a varied landscape. MSMEs and retail borrowers are the primary drivers of expansion, reflecting both sustained household demand and strong policy support. In contrast, corporate lending is subdued due to internal financing preferences, while agricultural lending grows steadily but at a moderate pace. Meanwhile, NBFC lending has slowed to roughly 5.7% year-on-year, even as fintech platforms continue rapid growth in unsecured consumer credit; however, this segment faces regulatory scrutiny that could influence near-term trends.

Key Risks to Watch
* Margin pressure is the most pressing. Even if credit demand holds up, banks may struggle to maintain net interest margins if deposit costs remain high. Private banks, in particular, are experiencing slower CASA (current and savings account) growth, forcing them to rely more on costlier term deposits.
* Uneven Demand Landscape: Corporate credit appetite remains weak, and infrastructure lending is sluggish, raising questions about the durability of system-wide growth. Additionally, global risks—such as higher oil prices, trade disruptions, or a stronger U.S. dollar—could tighten external financing conditions and indirectly affect domestic credit supply.
* Unsecured Retail Lending—a fast-growing category—has invited regulatory scrutiny. Any sharp tightening in norms here could dent near-term growth in certain NBFCs and fintechs.

Investor Implications
For investors, the message is to be selective. Banks with strong deposit franchises and diversified loan books are better placed to sustain growth without excessive margin sacrifice. Public sector banks have gained from capital injections and improved asset quality, while private sector lenders remain more efficient in digital adoption and risk assessment. NBFCs focused on niche areas such as vehicle finance, affordable housing, or MSME lending may outperform, but they remain vulnerable to shifts in funding costs. Insurance companies and asset managers, while not direct lenders, benefit indirectly as financial deepening and credit penetration increase savings and investment flows.

Outlook
The financial sector’s ~11% credit growth in FY25 should be seen not as a slowdown but as a stabilization after two years of rapid expansion. With liquidity injections, stronger balance sheets, and regulatory clarity, lenders are positioned for sustainable medium-term growth. The challenge lies in balancing growth with prudence: avoiding a surge in risky assets while maintaining profitability amid shifting rate dynamics. For equity markets, the sector remains central. Financials constitute a significant share of benchmark indices, and their performance often sets the tone for broader market sentiment. While valuations for many banks remain attractive, the real differentiator will be deposit mobilization strength, credit discipline, and digital adaptability.

Conclusion
India’s financial sector is transitioning into a more balanced growth phase. With credit growth stabilizing at ~11%, supported by policy measures, resilient retail and MSME demand, and healthier balance sheets, the outlook remains constructive. Risks exist in the form of margin pressures, uneven corporate demand, and regulatory tightening in pockets, but systemic stability is stronger than in previous cycles. For long-term investors, this phase offers opportunities to back institutions that can compound value by combining prudent growth, efficient funding, and digital-led customer engagement. The next year will likely separate structurally strong lenders from cyclical beneficiaries.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Global Equity Funds Face Record $38.66 Billion Outflows Amid Market Valuation Concerns

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SMBC Strengthens Stake with ₹16,000 Crore Investment in Yes Bank
Banking, business update, Equities, Markets - August 30, 2025

SMBC Strengthens Stake with ₹16,000 Crore Investment in Yes Bank

SMBC Strengthens Stake with ₹16,000 Crore Investment in Yes Bank

Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC), Japan’s banking major, is poised to strengthen its partnership with Yes Bank through an infusion of ₹16,000 crore in equity and debt financing.

Strategic Boost for Yes Bank’s Financial Health
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC), Japan’s third-largest lender, is preparing to infuse an additional ₹16,000 crore into Yes Bank. This latest capital infusion, structured through yen-denominated bonds and equity instruments including foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs), is anticipated to significantly strengthen Yes Bank’s balance sheet and improve overall financial metrics.
The ₹16,000 crore further investment follows SMBC’s earlier acquisition of a 20% stake in Yes Bank for ₹13,500 crore, primarily acquired from existing shareholders led by the State Bank of India (SBI). SMBC has secured regulatory approval from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to hold up to 24.99% equity, with plans to explore strategies to raise this stake by 4.99% in coming months.

Investment Breakdown and Structure
The capital injection is split into two parts:
• ₹8,500 crore through long-term, yen-denominated bonds carrying sub-2% rates, offering Yes Bank access to low-cost capital.
• ₹7,500 crore through equity infusion, most likely in the form of FCCBs, boosting the bank’s capital adequacy and enabling growth lending.
This structured funding approach not only tightens Yes Bank’s liquidity but also optimizes the cost of capital, which will enable more competitive lending and expansion.

SMBC’s Plans for a Larger Role
The bank is also establishing a wholly owned subsidiary in India, intended as a platform for potential majority ownership in the future. Recent negotiations with private equity investors Advent International and Carlyle Group—holders of approximately 9.2% and 4.2% stakes, respectively—are ongoing to facilitate the increase in SMBC’s holding.
While RBI has yet to grant promoter status, SMBC’s keen interest in formalizing this status signals a robust long-term commitment to shaping Yes Bank’s growth narrative in the competitive banking sector.

Positive Market Reception and Outlook
News of SMBC’s additional ₹16,000 crore investment led to immediate market enthusiasm, with Yes Bank’s shares surging around 4% on BSE following the announcement. Investors view the move as bolstering the bank’s financial position, which is crucial given Yes Bank’s position as a private sector challenger bank in India.
The fresh infusion of capital is expected to lift Yes Bank’s net interest margin (NIM), which stood at just 2.5% in June 2025—one of the lowest in the industry.
Better capital adequacy could enable the bank to lend more aggressively while sustaining profitability.

Yes Bank’s Evolution and Growth Prospects
Yes Bank has undergone significant transformation since the 2020 bailout led by the Reserve Bank of India and major lenders like SBI. SMBC’s involvement marks an important chapter, bringing in international expertise and financial muscle to support the private lender’s ambitions.
With this infusion, Yes Bank is well-positioned to scale its loan book, invest in digital banking capabilities, and strengthen its presence in corporate, retail, and MSME banking sectors. SMBC’s strategic partnership is expected to provide the bank with access to global best practices, governance frameworks, and new business opportunities.

Concluding Perspectives
SMBC’s planned ₹16,000 crore investment is a pivotal moment for both the Japanese banking giant and Yes Bank. It underlines SMBC’s growing confidence in India’s private banking sector and its aspirations for a larger footprint. For Yes Bank, this strategic capital boost secures a stronger capital base, setting the stage for accelerated growth and enhanced competitiveness.
Pending regulatory approvals and successful stakeholder negotiations, this partnership could redefine Yes Bank’s future trajectory as a robust, technology-driven, and globally connected bank.

 

 

 

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RBI's Revised Co-Lending Norms Set to Transform NBFC Growth
Banking, Equities, Markets - August 18, 2025

RBI's Revised Co-Lending Norms Set to Transform NBFC Growth

RBI’s Revised Co-Lending Norms Set to Transform NBFC Growth

Major regulatory reforms empower joint lending, expand credit access, and boost risk sharing among financial institutions in India.

Introduction
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has introduced its landmark Co-Lending Directions, 2025, set to take effect from January 1, 2026. These new norms are poised to radically reshape the lending landscape for Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) by fostering collaboration between banks, NBFCs, and other regulated entities (REs). Industry experts, including rating agency Crisil, anticipate the measures will unlock significant growth opportunities and help overcome longstanding funding constraints that have troubled smaller lenders.

Key Highlights of the RBI Co-Lending Guidelines
1. Minimum Loan Retention Requirement
As per the revised framework, each participating RE—whether a bank or an NBFC—must retain a minimum of 10% of every individual loan on its own balance sheet. This is a notable reduction from the previous minimum of 20%, particularly benefiting mid-sized and smaller NBFCs that face higher funding constraints. The measure ensures all partners have genuine financial exposure (“skin in the game”) and participate actively in risk management.
2. Expanded Applicability and Partnership Scope
Earlier, co-lending was primarily limited to priority sector loans. The revised norms extend the model to all regulated entities and all forms of loans (secured and unsecured), vastly expanding the scope of credit delivery in India. Banks, NBFCs (including housing finance companies), and other financial institutions can now collaborate in lending to retail and MSME segments, driving deeper financial inclusion.
3. Default Loss Guarantee Cap
Originating REs, which initiate the loan, may provide a direct lending guarantee (DLG) of up to 5% of the pooled loan amount to their co-lending partner. This guarantee absorbs losses in case of default and was previously restricted to digital lending. The guarantee must be invoked only after 90 days of delinquency, ensuring prudent risk and reward sharing between partners without excessive risk transfer.
4. Uniform Asset Classification
In a major regulatory step, all co-lending partners must follow a uniform asset classification for each loan. If one partner flags a loan as a special mention account (SMA) or non-performing asset (NPA), the other must do the same, with this data shared in real time. This removes regulatory arbitrage, ensures early stress recognition, and promotes transparency across the system.
5. Blended Interest Rates and Disclosure Norms
Borrowers will be charged a blended interest rate, calculated as the weighted average of each RE’s internal rate based on their share of the loan. All additional fees and charges must be disclosed upfront in the Key Facts Statement (KFS) and factored into the annual percentage rate (APR). Financial institutions are required to disclose details of their co-lending arrangements, volumes, interest rates, fees, sectoral exposure, and partner lists both online and in financial statements.
6. Operational Clarity and Borrower Protection
Every co-lending agreement must detail the loan product, partner duties, borrower selection criteria, fee structures, and risk-sharing models. All transactions are to be routed through escrow accounts to ensure fund security and transparency. Borrowers will have a single point of contact throughout the loan lifecycle, with grievance redressal mechanisms in place and clear product information.

Impact on NBFCs and Credit Growth
Lending Opportunities and AUM Expansion
The new rules enable NBFCs, especially smaller ones, to participate in co-lending with banks on more flexible terms, reducing the minimum loan retention requirement. This alleviates funding pressures, encouraging NBFCs to scale up lending operations. Crisil reports co-lending assets under management for NBFCs exceeded ₹1.1trillion as of March 2025, with robust growth expected after the new framework takes effect.
Financial Inclusion and Risk Distribution
Wider partnership possibilities mean loans can reach underserved consumer, SME, and rural markets—key to achieving financial inclusion. Risk is distributed more efficiently between large and small lenders, reducing systemic vulnerabilities and paving the way for more resilient financial sector growth.
Regulatory Oversight and Compliance
Greater oversight ensures all partners adhere to prudent risk management standards, with no scope for regulatory arbitrage. Real-time asset classification and disclosures will lead to early problem loan identification and protect stakeholders, including borrowers and investors.

Challenges and Industry Feedback
Technology Integration
Industry commentary highlights that integrating diverse technology platforms among co-lending partners could prove challenging. Implementing seamless data sharing, unified asset classification, and escrow arrangements will demand substantial investment and collaboration.
Need for Clarity
While the guidelines provide a robust framework, stakeholders have sought further clarity on fee structures, business continuity plans (especially for failed partnerships), and operational responsibilities to avoid confusion and ensure smooth implementation.

Conclusion
The RBI’s Co-Lending Directions, 2025 mark a significant milestone for India’s financial sector, particularly for NBFCs. By lowering barriers, broadening collaboration, tightening regulatory standards, and prioritizing borrower protection, the new framework is set to unlock NBFC growth and drive financial inclusion. With careful execution and continued regulatory oversight, the benefits for lenders and borrowers alike are expected to be substantial.

 

 

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RBI's Revised Co-Lending Norms Set to Transform NBFC Growth
Banking, Economy, Market News - July 16, 2025

RBI's Strategic Liquidity Management: A ₹2 Trillion Operation Looms

RBI’s Strategic Liquidity Management: A ₹2 Trillion Operation Looms

In a liquidity management move watched closely by financial markets, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) conducted a two-day Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auction on July 9, accepting ₹97,315 crore from banks. This came just shy of the ₹1 trillion it had offered. Market participants believe the cautious bidding reflects expectations of a much larger liquidity absorption—possibly ₹2 trillion—on the horizon.

RBI Tightens Grip on Surplus Liquidity
The accepted bids cleared at a cut-off rate of 5.49%, slightly higher than the 5.47% seen in the previous seven-day VRRR held on July 4. This increase, though modest, suggests that banks are pricing in tighter liquidity going forward or preparing for another, much larger VRRR operation.
Traders and treasury dealers believe the higher rate points to growing uncertainty in the short-term money market. With expectations of a ₹2 trillion auction soon, many institutions held back from fully subscribing to the current round, choosing instead to wait and see how the RBI proceeds.

Liquidity Remains in Surplus—But Banks Tread Carefully
Even after the RBI’s significant withdrawal of funds via the VRRR mechanism, surplus liquidity remains abundant in India’s banking sector. As per RBI figures dated July 8, the system still held an excess of ₹3.07 trillion.
Still, the higher cut-off rate indicates that banks are becoming more cautious. There is still no clarity on where the RBI wants overnight rates to settle—whether close to the repo rate of 5.50% or somewhere between the repo and the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate of 5.25%.
A dealer from a state-owned bank noted:
“There is expectation of a ₹2-trillion VRRR announcement soon. It remains uncertain whether the RBI aims to anchor the overnight rate precisely at 5.50% or prefers it to fluctuate within the range bounded by the Standing Deposit Facility and the repo rate. This uncertainty is leading to cautious bidding and a higher cut-off.”

Short-Term Rates Show an Uptrend
The rising rates in the money market support this cautious outlook. Key short-term rates have moved upward recently:
• The Weighted Average Call Rate (WACR) increased to 5.34%, compared to around 5.26% a week ago.
The interest rate for Tri-party repos advanced to 5.29%, marking a rise from the previous benchmark of 5.13%.
This suggests that short-term money is becoming slightly more expensive, even with surplus liquidity still in the system.

A Look at Recent VRRR Activity
This auction is part of a series of regular VRRR operations the RBI has been conducting to manage surplus liquidity and guide short-term interest rates. Here’s a quick recap:
• On July 4, during a seven-day Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auction, the Reserve Bank of India attracted ₹1.7 trillion in total bids but chose to absorb only ₹1 trillion, setting the cut-off yield at 5.47%.
• On June 27, the Reserve Bank of India absorbed ₹84,975 crore from the banking system, with the average return rate settling at 5.45%.
• June 18: A similar pattern was observed, with selective acceptance at competitive rates.
These auctions show RBI’s consistent effort to sterilize excess liquidity and fine-tune monetary transmission.

Expectations Building for a ₹2 Trillion Operation
Speculation within financial circles suggests that the Reserve Bank may soon initiate a Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) operation worth ₹2 trillion, possibly within the near-term horizon. There are several reasons why a large liquidity absorption may soon be necessary:
• A recent reduction in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) has freed up nearly ₹2.5 trillion, effectively releasing that volume of funds into the banking system and enhancing overall liquidity.
• The Reserve Bank of India’s transfer of surplus funds to the government will, in due course, make their way back into circulation within the banking sector.
• Bond maturities and government spending: Both can temporarily elevate surplus liquidity.
Analysts predict that by October–November, the total liquidity surplus could grow to ₹5 trillion, making larger VRRR operations not just likely—but necessary.

Why VRRR Matters in Monetary Policy
1. Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auctions serve as essential instruments in the Reserve Bank of India’s strategy to regulate liquidity. By conducting these operations, the RBI draws surplus funds out of the banking sector, helping to maintain monetary balance.
2. Prevent oversupply of money, which can lead to lower short-term rates and weaken monetary policy transmission.
3. Stabilize overnight rates like WACR, keeping them aligned with the central bank’s policy stance.
4. Manage inflation expectations, since surplus liquidity can fuel asset bubbles or consumption spikes.
By actively managing liquidity through VRRR, the RBI reinforces the effectiveness of its repo and reverse repo corridor.

Banks Playing It Smart
Banks, for their part, are being strategic. Many chose not to deploy their entire surplus in the latest VRRR, likely keeping some buffer for potential rate volatility or the upcoming larger auction. The move to bid at higher rates suggests that banks are aiming to hedge risk rather than chase marginal returns.
Some analysts believe this “wait and watch” behavior will continue until the RBI provides greater clarity on its short-term liquidity roadmap—especially if more durable liquidity (like long-term money) continues to flood the system.

Looking Ahead
With inflation under control and growth momentum holding steady, the RBI is expected to maintain its current policy stance. However, the central bank’s liquidity operations—like the VRRR—will remain active and adaptive to market conditions.
A potential ₹2 trillion auction will be watched closely not just for the amount, but also for the tenor (7-day, 14-day, etc.) and the cut-off rate. These factors will offer deeper insight into RBI’s evolving liquidity strategy.

Conclusion
By taking in ₹97,315 crore through its most recent VRRR operation, the Reserve Bank of India has demonstrated a forward-looking stance in handling excess liquidity within the banking system. As anticipation builds around a potential ₹2 trillion liquidity operation, financial institutions are treading carefully—mindful of excess funds in the system while closely observing the Reserve Bank’s next strategic steps. In the weeks ahead, the central bank may adopt a more assertive stance to fine-tune the delicate balance between economic expansion, price stability, and overall financial system health.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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ICICI Bank Shares Slip as ICICI Prudential AMC Files for Landmark ₹10,000 Crore IPO
Banking, Market News - July 10, 2025

ICICI Bank Shares Slip as ICICI Prudential AMC Files for Landmark ₹10,000 Crore IPO

ICICI Bank Shares Slip as ICICI Prudential AMC Files for Landmark ₹10,000 Crore IPO

ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company’s IPO filing triggers market reaction, as parent ICICI Bank eyes stake increase and Prudential plans a significant divestment in one of India’s largest asset management listings.

Introduction
The Indian financial sector is witnessing a major development as ICICI Prudential AMC, a joint venture between ICICI Bank and Prudential plc, prepares for a high-profile public debut. The asset manager’s IPO, expected to be among the largest in the sector, is set against a backdrop of robust financial performance and a rapidly growing investor base. However, the announcement has also impacted ICICI Bank’s stock, which saw a decline as investors digested the implications of the listing and the associated changes in shareholding.

The IPO Filing: Structure and Details
On July 8, 2025, ICICI Prudential AMC submitted its DRHP to SEBI, BSE, and NSE, marking the formal initiation of its initial public offering process. The IPO is structured solely as an offer for sale (OFS), through which Prudential Corporation Holdings plans to offload up to 10% of its stake in the AMC. This translates to approximately 1.76 crore shares on offer, with no fresh equity issue—meaning the entire proceeds will go to the selling shareholder, Prudential.
ICICI Bank, which presently owns a 51% stake, has revealed its intention to purchase an additional 2% from Prudential ahead of the IPO, pending regulatory approvals and final agreement on terms. This inter-se agreement is likely intended to strengthen ICICI Bank’s control over the asset management company (AMC) in preparation for its market debut.

Financial Performance and Market Position
ICICI Prudential AMC has shown robust financial performance in the run-up to its IPO. For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, the company reported a 32.4% jump in revenue from operations, reaching ₹4,977.3 crore, and a net profit of ₹2,650.66 crore. The AMC manages assets worth over ₹9.5 lakh crore and boasts a customer base of 14.6 million, making it the largest AMC in India by active mutual fund quarterly average assets under management.

Strategic Context: ICICI Bank and Prudential’s Moves
This IPO represents the ICICI Group’s fifth significant market debut, following earlier listings of ICICI Bank, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, ICICI Lombard General Insurance, and the previously listed ICICI Securities. With this move, ICICI Prudential AMC will also become the fifth asset management firm to list on Indian stock exchanges, joining peers such as HDFC AMC, UTI AMC, etc,.
Prudential’s decision to divest a 10% stake is seen as a strategic move to unlock value from its long-standing joint venture. The sale could yield a substantial return for the UK-based insurer, given its original acquisition cost for the stake was just ₹10 crore. For ICICI Bank, the planned 2% stake increase signals confidence in the AMC’s future prospects and a desire to strengthen its position as the controlling partner.

Market Reaction: ICICI Bank Shares Under Pressure
The announcement of the IPO and associated stake sale has led to a decline in ICICI Bank’s share price. Investors are assessing the near-term implications of the ownership reshuffle and the lack of new capital infusion into the AMC, given that the entire IPO proceeds will be directed to Prudential. Market participants are also assessing the broader implications for ICICI Bank’s consolidated earnings and strategic direction.

Industry Impact and Outlook
The public offering of ICICI Prudential AMC is anticipated to be a landmark event for India’s asset management sector. The listing will provide investors with another avenue to participate in the country’s growing mutual fund sector, which has seen rapid expansion in both assets and investor participation. The IPO is also likely to set benchmarks for future valuations in the industry.

Conclusion
ICICI Prudential AMC’s IPO filing represents a significant milestone for both the company and the broader financial sector. While the move has introduced some short-term volatility in ICICI Bank’s share price, it underscores the growing maturity and depth of India’s capital markets. As the IPO process unfolds, all eyes will be on the pricing, investor response, and the future trajectory of both ICICI Prudential AMC and its parent, ICICI Bank.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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