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Economy - May 15, 2020

India's borrowing target now raised to Rs 12 lakh crores

India’s borrowing target now raised to Rs 12 lakh crores

From the estimated amount in the budget of 7.8 lakh crores, the government has increased the gross market borrowing target to Rs 12 lakh crores for the financial year 2020-21. It attributes nearly 54% increase to deal with the problem of illiquidity during the economic crisis due to corona virus pandemic.

 

The circular:

The government issued a circular on 8th May 2020, which said that the gross borrowing target has been raised from the budgeted Rs 7.8 lakh crores to Rs 12 lakh crores. In a statement given on Friday, the Finance ministry said that an increase in the borrowing targets has been done after consultations with the RBI and has been inevitable during this covid-19 pandemic crisis.

 

Increase in budgeted borrowings:

A few days ago, a package worth Rs 1.7 lakh crores was announced. It is expected that there will be additional packages and programs introduced in the days ahead to have fiscal support. This is because of the expected reduction in the tax revenue from the lock down. It is expected that the revenue shortfall would be same as the additional borrowings of Rs. 4.2 lakh crores in this financial year. The recent surge in the fuel prices will generate an additional Rs 1.4 lakh crores but still cannot reduce the revenue shortfall.

A senior government official communicated with the media that there will definitely be a revenue shortfall in this financial year. It is because many of the industries are shut down amid lock down in the month of April. For now, they are focusing on the expenditure side. If the situation improves in the second half of the year, then the government will scale down the estimated borrowings. He added that the RBI has not taken any call for monetizing the deficit. A stimulus package will be announced very soon and the government is working on it.

 

Borrowing Plan:

The government plans to borrow an amount of Rs 7 lakh crores in the first half of this financial year than the earlier of plan of Rs. 4.88 lakh crores. So it means that the government can borrow at the most Rs 6 lakh crores by the end of September. The government can borrow an average of Rs 30,000 crores per week according to the current plan as compared to the earlier plan of borrowing Rs 19,000 – 21,000 crores. This will leave a balance of Rs 5 lakh crores which can be borrowed in the second half then the earlier plan of Rs 2.92 lakh crores.

 

Benefits of additional borrowings:

The additional market borrowings would lead to an increase in the bond yields and would also ensure adequate liquidity in this system. According to the report given by finance ministry, the surplus liquidity in the banking system is Rs 6.07 lakh crores currently.

 

 

Debt, hybrid mutual funds see large outflows in April

 

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Equities - May 11, 2020

Market update 11th May 2020. IRCTC 5% Up

Market update 11th May 2020. IRCTC 5% Up

Overall performance:

Indian stock market closed lower on 11th May. At close, SENSEX was down by 81.48 points or 0.26% at 31,561.22 and NIFTY was down by 12.30 points or 0.13% at 9,239.20. However, the S&P BSE Small cap index fell by 10.56 points or 0.10% closing at 10,628.14 and S&P BSE mid cap index was up by 0.65% or 74.20 points closing at 11,498.01.

 

Global indices and commodities:

When Indian market closed, DAX was trading at 10,818.48, down by 86.00 points or 0.79%, NASDAQ was trading at 9,121.32 up by 1.58% or 141.66 points and CAC was trading at 4,485.11, down by 1.42% or 64.53 points. While, SGX Nifty was down by 41 points or 0.44% and trading at 9,215.00
Currently, Gold is trading at 45,656 down by 156 points and 0.34%, Silver is trading at 42,972 down by 321 points and 0.74% and Crude oil is trading at 1,844 which is up by 7 points and 0.38%.

 

Currency:

At the time of closing of Indian indices, USD was trading at 75.74, up by 0.19%. EURO was trading at 81.96, up by 0.07% and GBP was trading at 93.37, down by 0.35%. Indian Rupee ended higher by 0.26% at 75.74 per Dollar.

 

Sector:

Sector wise, the S&P BSE Finance index declined by 77.21 points and S&P BSE Auto rose by 522.72 points or 4.23%. At closing, NIFTY BANK fell by 402.40 points but NIFTY Auto increased by 231.95 points or 4.26%.

 

Top 5 gainers:

Today, most of the top gainers were auto stock. Hero MotoCorp gained 6.42% closing at 2,0885.65. Tata Motors increased by 6.23% closing at 86.10, Maruti Suzuki and Bajaj auto gained 6.09% closing at 4,937.80 and 2,566.30 respectively. Bharti infratel increased by 5.37% closing at 183.60.

 

Top 5 losers:

ICICI bank declined by 5.20% and closing at Rs 320.15, both BPCL and Dr Reddys Labs fell by 3.06% closing at Rs 314.80 and 3,862 respectively. Kotak Mahindra decreased by 2.38% closing at Rs 1,188.45 and HUL fell by 1.98% closing at Rs 2,048.

 

Stock in news:

Most active stock by volume were reliance, ICICI bank, HUL and Maruti Suzuki. After online bookings for passenger train started today, shares of IRCTC locked in 5 percent upper circuit closing at Rs 1,303.55 and up by 62.05 points. Other stock in news was Vodafone idea as their share price jumped today by 9.52 percent, closing at Rs 4.40 and around 77,55,07,976 shares were traded today.

 

 

BSE, NSE to launch rupee derivative contracts

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Equities, Market News, Markets - May 9, 2020

BSE, NSE to launch rupee derivative contracts

BSE, NSE to launch rupee derivative contracts

 

The NSC IFSC  and India INX have introduced rupee derivatives which will help in bringing much needed added liquidity in the economy. This will supplement their customers with several investment options.

The motive behind introduction of rupee derivatives:

The CEO of NSE, Vikram Limaye communicated to the media that the introduction of rupee derivatives will help in the development of (Gujarat International finance tech) GIFT IFSC as a hub of global financial services. This IFSC platform will help in the rupee exposure of non resident participants. This non residents’ participation will also enhance the IFSC’s extended trading hours and USD settlement. They’ve already received permissions for offering securities trading in any currency except the Indian rupee.

 

Importance of introduction of rupee derivatives:

Mr. Limaye added that this measure will enhance the efficiency of Indian rupees’ price discovery. It will be done by eliminating the onshore and offshore markets’ segmentation. It will also allow for trading and hedging using rupee derivatives contracts to their trading partners viz. IFSC entities and banking units. The Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman did the inauguration of the rupee derivatives contract. The contract will be having a lot size in NSE IFSC – Rs 20 lacs and India INX – Rs 10 lacs and the contract will be settled in cash.

 

The futures and options:

The futures at the NSE IFSC will have in total three monthly expiry contracts . The options at NSE IFSC will have total seven weekly and three monthly expiry contracts. For the other one i.e India INX, there will be in total eleven weekly and twelve monthly contracts. In the past few months due to the corona virus pandemic crisis, there is an acute volatility faced by the currency markets. The introduction of rupee derivative contracts in the IFSC will lead to more stability during these situations.

 

The Contracts:

The chairman of India INX, Ashishkumar Chauhan communicated to the media that the size of contract will be Rs 10 lacs and the trading is made available from 8th May 2020, 3:30 pm IST. The trading is for both the pairs viz. USD-INR and INR-USD. He added that for the USD-INR product, many of the people like the exporters, importers, traders, etc associated with any kinds of businesses have expressed their keen interest. The Gandhinagar GIFT City is the only IFSC situated in India having zero short term, zero long-term, zero stamp duty and zero transaction taxes as of now.

Each and every businessman interested should consider trading and hedging using rupee derivatives contracts at the GIFT City. The MD and CEO of India INX, V Balasubramaniam communicated to the media that he looks towards the best participation of members and international participants. This will be the first launch of offshore Indian rupee derivatives contract.

 

 

What are liquid funds? Find more

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Equities - May 9, 2020

Market Update 8th May 2020. Cyient locked on Lower Circuit

How the stock market performed on 8th May?

Overall performance:

Indian indices ended higher on 8th May witnessing profit booking during the last hour of trade which pulled the NIFTY below 9,300. SENSEX closed at 31,642.70 up by 0.63% or 199.32 points. NIFTY closed at 9,251.50 up by 0.57% or 52.45 points. However, the S&P BSE Small cap index fell by 48.05 points or 0.45% and S&P BSE mid cap index was up by 0.04% or 4.13 points closing at 11,423.81.

 

Global indices and commodity:

When the Indian market closed, DAX was trading at 10,887.52, up by 128.25 points or 1.04%, NASDAQ was trading at 9,041.42, up by 1.41% or 125.27 points and CAC was trading at 4,537.86, up by 0.95% or 36.45 points.

Currently, Gold is trading at 46,050, down by 111 points and 0.24%, Silver is trading at 43,281, up by 158 points and 0.37% and Crude oil is trading at 1,841 which is up by 7 points and 0.38%.

 

Currency:

At the time of closing of Indian markets, USD was trading at Rs 75.54, down by 0.28%. EURO was trading at Rs 81.89, down by 0.25% and GBP was trading at Rs 93.84, up by 0.17%. Indian Rupee ended higher, 21 paise at Rs 75.55 per Dollar.

 

Sector:

Sector wise, the S&P BSE Finance index declined by 0.37% and S&P BSE Auto down by 1.29%.

At closing, NIFTY BANK fell by 138.90 points and NIFTY IT increased by 0.83%.

 

Top 5 gainers:

HUL increased by 4.89%, closing at Rs 2,089.45, Nestle was up by 3.85% and closed at Rs 17,802.95, Tech Mahindra gained 3.84% and closed Rs 536.20. Dr Reddys Labs closed at Rs 3,984, up by 3.81% and Sun Pharma increased by 3.72%, closing at Rs 469.

 

Top 5 losers:

Cyient fell by 10%, closing at Rs 208.50, RBL bank declined by 7.37% and closed at Rs 119.35, Axis bank declined by 3.85%, closing at Rs 382.05 while, NTPC fell by 3.81% , closing at Rs 87 and M&M decreased by 3.48%, closing at Rs 386.70.

 

Stocks in news:

Most active stocks were SBI, RBL Bank, Yes bank and RIL in terms of volume. Cyient was in news as their stock hit lower circuit today at 10%, closing at 208.50 due to weak revenue growth management guidance for Q1FY21. After US based private equity fund firm, Vista Equity announced to buy stake in RIL’s digital unit Jio, share price of RIL gained 3.64% or 54.85 points and closed at 1,561.80

 

 

India’s borrowing target now raised to Rs 12 lakh crores

 

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Economy - May 9, 2020

Debt, hybrid mutual funds see large outflows in April

Debt, hybrid mutual funds see large outflows in April

The financial market is undergoing a major liquidity crisis in Non-Banking Financial Company (NBFC) sector. This net outflow in debt fund is due to intense credit issue floating in the market.

 

Reason for Huge outflow in Debt Mutual Funds:

On 23rd April 2020, Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund discontinued 6 of its Debt mutual funds. They stated the reason for discontinuing six of its debt mutual funds to be the illiquid situation floating in debt market due to the unusual wake of COVID-19. They mentioned this step took by the company is for the safeguarding the interest of customers and to protect their money invested with us.

Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund abruptly discontinued the trade of Systematic transfer plan (STP) and Systematic withdrawal plan (SWP) and some of their debt schemes. This created panic among all the potential investors of this category. The decision took by Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund is adversely affecting the entire debt mutual fund category.

 

Outflow observed in different schemes:

The highest outflow observed is in the Credit risk fund amounting to ₹19,238.98 crore in April 2020. The second highest outflow is observed in Low duration fund of total ₹9,841.07 crore for the same time period. Further various schemes observed outflows viz. Ultra Short Duration fund, Money market fund, Short Duration fund of total ₹3,419.32 crore, ₹1,210.35 crore, ₹2,309.05 crore respectively. There are few more firms which observed unforeseen outflows.

 

Schemes which stood strong despite of crisis:

Liquid fund did not observe any outflow. On the contrary, it observed inflow of ₹68,848.01 crore in April 2020. Further various schemes which observed inflows viz. Long Duration fund, Banking and PSU fund, and Gilt fund of total ₹301.94 crore, ₹6,561.20 crore, and ₹2,515.61 crore respectively.

 

Scenario of Hybrid Funds:

Hybrid funds refers to funds which invest in both equity & debt. These funds are also critically damaged. Arbitrage fund in the category of hybrid funds is the only fund which observed Inflow of total ₹6,587.05 crore in April 2020. Funds viz. Equity saving, Multi Asset allocation, Dynamic Asset allocation/Balanced Advantage, Balanced Hybrid Fund/Aggressive Hybrid Fund, and Conservative Hybrid Fund in the category of hybrid fund observed a huge outflow in April 2020.

 

Views on this unexpected scenario:

The decision taken by Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund devastated the entire financial market. In this time of crisis, an ordinary investor will genuinely think to safeguard his\her money and no other option is left with them besides grabbing their money back into the pocket.

 

 

Startups offer Esops to help employees

 

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Equity Right
Business - May 9, 2020

Startups offer Esops to help employees

Startups offer Esops to help employees

Incidental to economic distress invited by COVID-19, some of India’s top startups are rendering additional stock options to their employees in order to retain them even after having performed reduction in salaries mandatorily or voluntarily both. Among others, one is Zomato, a well known food delivery chain. Other is “On Your Own Rooms” popularly known as the Oyo Rooms, next is Grofers, the grocery delivery startup, Bounce, known for offering dock-less scooters enhancing mobility, Paytm an e-commerce payment and shopping application.

Zomato was seen initiating a voluntary salary reduction scheme in April, offering those employees add on stocks in order to compensate their decreased pay cheques. According to the estimates, around 2,700 employees undertook voluntary pay cuts empathizing with the company’s situation.

 

Why Esops?

This decision is a rational one. Companies resorting to pay cuts will not remain appealing to employees who previously worked on high salaries, retaining the talent is a skill, during these tough situations, Esop can be the best possible option to engage employees if not for life but at least for a fixed tenure. According to the sources, Zomato is already having pool of untouched shares with it which they can now use to offer its employees. While others are managing from their founder’s holding in the organizations.

Grofers is backed by Soft Bank, helping it to increase the Esop pool. It is planning to enhance pool by an addition of $25 million, summing up to make it raise $60-70 million. Further, Paytm, Zomato and Oyo are known to have Esop pools ranging around 2.6% – 5.5% of their overall shareholding.

The companies are still deciding as to what ratio of compensation will be granted and what can be the best articulated Esop plan that they can come up with, for instance lower price or shorter lock-in periods since they are being issued in compensation to liquid cash. Paytm, has earlier announced that it is willing to offer Esop linked appraisal scheme this year. For which, it will keep aside Rs 250 crore in Esops to be offered to the target achievers, sincere and honest employees, high performers and fresh joinees of their organization.

 

 

SBI CARDS Q4FY20 Result Highlights

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Research - May 8, 2020

SBI CARDS Q4FY20 Result Highlights

SBI CARDS Q4FY20 Result Highlights

SBI cards declared their quarterly results for Q4 FY20. Here are the details:

Excess provisions has impacted the Q4FY20 earnings of SBI Cards. Although, the asset quality has improved. Net Interest Income saw an improvement by 50% this year. It increased to Rs 10.1 billion at a growth of 8% since last quarter. The PAT declined by 66% YoY to Rs 835 million which is a 81% cut down from last quarter. It is largely led by one-time Rs 4.9 billion COVID-19 provisioning and moratorium.

 

The provisions increased by 138% to Rs 8.3 billion. It was twice the estimated amount. This is a 123% increase since last quarter led by Rs 4.9 billion provisioning related to COVID-19. The operational Expenditure Opex was up by 15% at Rs 12.3 billion which declined by 3% compared to last quarter.

 

SBI CARDS Q4FY20 Result Highlights

Outstanding on cards increased by 28% to Rs. 10.5 million. Gross NPAs improved by 43 basis points to 2.01% compared to previous year. The market share was up by 18.2%. It improved by 68 basic points. The spends was also up by 77 basic points at 17.9% till January 2020.

 

The Pre-provision operating profit saw a growth at 29% to Rs 9.5 billion. It declined by just 1% since last quarter. The receivables also increased by 30% to Rs. 241.41 billion. Spends was Rs 1,309.15 billion which increased by 27%. The recommendation on this stock is to buy with a target price of Rs 724.

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Equity Right
Economy - May 8, 2020

Franklin Templeton receives prepayments from bond issuers

Franklin Templeton receives prepayments from bond issuers

On April 23, Franklin Templeton India’s 6 debt funds, which closed due to illiquidity and redemption pressure amid the COVID-19 turmoil, have received around ₹2,000 crore in repayments/prepayments from underlying bonds. Investors who have contributed are Xander Financial  and Hero Solar Energy. Some energy sector and renewable sector organizations have also contributed in the same.

 

The recent scenario:

Franklin Templeton has borrowed capital from banks to manage the remittance pressure for these 6 schemes that we are talking about. Hence, the total amount received has been directed towards settling these bank liabilities. Recovery can be seen in the dynamic accrual fund and the amount of ₹100 crore received from Hero Solar Energy has been received under this fund only. Soon the ultrashort term fund will also become cash positive.

According to Franklin Templeton, they will be receiving such continuous inflow regularly and all maturities and other commitments will be met by their portfolio securities, as per predefined timeline. Adding, they are optimistic with respect to further decrease in borrowing levels throughout these funds. They will be receiving funds through coupons, scheduled maturities and prepayments.

The funds that wound up had total assets under management (AUM) amounting ₹25,856 crore. While few investors have made payments and/or advances with Franklin, the matter of concern is that many of the debt funds are still lacking enormous liquidity. Around 88-100 percent of the portfolio ranks below “AA-” along with no or low trading. As per the guidelines laid by Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), before any repayment to unit holders, every scheme must clear its total liabilities. Once the liabilities are cleared, Franklin plans to reach out to investors for their approval via electronic mode.

 

Clearing the misconception:

There is a misguided judgment that the borrowing decreases the AUM of the respective scheme and that on repayment of the same it takes away value from the investors. Whereas, in the beginning only the borrowing is regarded as a liability and its adjustments are taken care of while computing AUM. Viably, the portfolio value is kept much higher than the AUM that is revealed. Therefore, repayment of borrowing keeps the AUM intact.

 

The second reason for shutdown of Franklin’s 6 debt funds:

Another cause for closing down these schemes is the recent SEBI guideline, which forbids funds from investing more than 10% of their assets in unlisted bonds. In India, anything rated below AAA- is considered non-venture grade since high return market is extremely immature in these categories. Franklin’s six funds had a lot of similar kind of private debt. In October 2019, when SEBI announced the new rule saying that any investments in unlisted instruments should be less than 10%, this gave a double blow to these 6 schemes of Franklin. As a result, it could not hold more than 10% nor it could be traded as there were not many buyers and the guideline was not allowing exchanging. This stranded around 33% of its assets.

 

 

SEBI turns down proposal on easing QIP pricing norms

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SEBI turns down proposal on easing QIP pricing norms

SEBI turns down proposal on easing QIP pricing norms

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) scrapped the proposal requesting loosening of pricing norms for the Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP). Relaxing the pricing norms would have made it easier for companies to raise capital amid turmoil caused by the pandemic. Therefore, a plea was made to SEBI by merchant banks to permit companies to offer a 10% discount on the floor price.

The present market fluctuation is forbidding the companies under existing norms to price their offerings more alluringly. Therefore, they are facing acute shortage of funds. As per prevailing rules, it is mandatory that the issue price in a QIP to not be less than the average of weekly high and low for 2 weeks preceding the relevant date. Bankers have now requested a discount to be increased from 5% to up to 10%. This will offer a great relief to the companies and will aid institutional investors to raise money.

 

The market scenario:

The capital markets regulator said that the share prices are already at their lowest and demand of further discounting is not justifiable. As compared to previous years, market is already at its low. From the day the news of corona virus was out in February till present, there has been huge declines. Nifty went down by 24%. Similarly, mid cap and small cap witnessed a decline by 27% and 26%. The losses could have been further high if the markets would not have recovered in the past weeks.

Money raised from QIPs between 2015 to 2019 by corporate India amounts to ₹1.31 trillion. To emphasize further, organizations have raised around Rs 51,216 crore through QIPs in FY20. According to 2020 data, capital amounting to ₹20,360 crore has been raised from QIPs.

 

SEBI proactively extending relaxations amidst pandemic:

Since the beginning of the lock down, SEBI has been proactively giving genuinely necessary relaxations to help listed entities and indirectly to the public shareholders supporting them to face the economic turmoil invited by the pandemic. In March, RBI proposed to relax the compliance of the compulsory 6 months gap between 2 back to back QIP issues. This was after the requests of companies wanting a waiver on the requirement of the cooling off period between two back to back QIP issues. Further, raising funds via rights issues and initial public offerings have already been made easier for companies. The recent request is much in line with relaxations. The regulator has granted relaxations for making ways easier for the companies to raise money from the market.

 

How will this relaxation help companies?

Investment bankers mention that lower floor prices in QIP issues will provide better access to capital by the companies. Moreover, QIP provides a fast track way that allows organizations that are listed to raise funds through equity or equity-linked instruments. Changes in QIP norms will improvise access to equity capital. Increasing the discount on floor rate to 10% will provide a larger stretch to companies to raise equity capital in a highly volatile and risky market scenario. This may lead to higher dilution, but the capital may be critical for survival and supporting business.

Undoubtedly, this will concern the capital markets regulator. According to bankers, there is not much scope of malpractices. The issue of QIPs does not allow promoters to take part. In case of dilution, it will affect not only shareholders but promoters too, hence keeping a natural check on pricing and sizing of a QIP issue.

 

Post lock down Scenario:

When the economy and markets begin recouping post the lock down, QIPs could rise as a significant raising support for organizations. So a relaxation on the pricing norm as discussed earlier will have a great positive impact.

 

 

States impose higher taxes to raise revenue

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Business, Economy - May 6, 2020

States impose higher taxes to raise revenue

States impose higher taxes to raise revenue

After 40 days, the government has decided to heave the lock down in some areas where no COVID-19 cases exist. The decision comes with some additional norms. On May 4, liquor shops were opened across the country. Currently, all states are struggling for funds due to lock down measures taken to overcome this pandemic. This has resulted in halt of all economic activities. In terms of revenue, taxes on alcohol play very crucial role in earning tax revenue. Around 10-15% tax revenue is earned from alcohol and 15-20% from petroleum products.

 

How much tax is increased?

To raise revenue, the state governments has increased the sales taxes on liquor and excise on fuels. Almost 13 states have increased taxes. Delhi has put a 70% tax on all types of liquor. The Andhra Pradesh government has increased the tax to 50% on liquor. Earlier, the tax rate was 25% in Andhra Pradesh which has now increased. Rajasthan and West Bengal have also increased the tax on liquor by 15% and 30% respectively. Fuel prices are also hiked by the states. Rajasthan had already increased prices on 22nd March by Rs. 2.2 per litre. The prices was raised again by 0.5-1.1 per litre. The Delhi government raised VAT on both diesel and petrol to 30%.

 

Importance of liquor sale to states:

Alcohol sale support states to earn more revenue than from other commodities. Revenues are earned from taxes on commodities like country spirits such as malt liquor, country fermented liquor, foreign liquor and spirits such as medical and toilet product which contain alcohol, commercial and denatured spirits, Indian made foreign liquor which are sold to canteen stores and other drugs which contains alcohol. Other than this, income is also earned by confiscating, licensing and penalties imposed on alcohol products.
According to the Indian ratings and research firm, more than 20% revenue of states and union territories such as Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Meghalaya, Sikkim and Karnataka is earned only through sale of alcohol. Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Chhattisgarh earn 15-20 %. Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Haryana earn 10-15% and rest of the states earn less than 10%.

 

Budget 19-20 report of RBI:

On an average, states shares 46% in total revenue receipts and the same is contributed to the central. According to this report, five revenue heads such as property and capital transaction tax, vehicle tax, Value added tax (VAT), SGST and state excise tax contribute 90% to the SOTR (state own tax revenue).

 

 

HDFC eyes up to raise capital amid pandemic

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