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The Rise in Delinquencies in Microfinance Loans

The Rise in Delinquencies in Microfinance Loans

The microfinance sector, a critical pillar of India’s rural credit system, has been facing a sharp rise in delinquencies. The reasons for this troubling trend are multifaceted, encompassing political events, weather-related disruptions, and excessive lending practices, as highlighted by industry executives during a webinar organized by rating agency ICRA. Despite these challenges, there is cautious optimism that the situation may stabilize in the next fiscal year.

Rural Priorities Shift Amid Economic Strain
In the past few months, rural households have shifted their financial priorities. With food inflation biting into household budgets and wage growth stagnating post-COVID-19, many families have chosen to focus on essentials and repay secured loans such as home and gold loans over microfinance obligations. This trend has significantly impacted the repayment capacity of borrowers in the sector, resulting in rising defaults.

“Post-COVID, people suffered job losses, and incomes were impacted. However, due to ample liquidity, loans were still accessible. Wage growth has yet to catch up, and with high food inflation, rural households are prioritizing essentials,” said Sadaf Sayeed, CEO of Muthoot Microfin Ltd. Over-leverage stemming from multiple factors, including political and weather events as well as excessive lending, has compounded the problem.

Sharp Deterioration in Asset Quality
The microfinance sector’s gross non-performing assets (NPA) surged to an 18-month high of 11.6% at the end of September. Factors like the heatwave, the two-month-long general elections, and overleveraging of customers have strained the sector’s asset quality. Regulatory actions have also played a role. In October, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) barred two NBFC-MFIs from conducting fresh business, citing violations such as charging excessive interest rates and failing to adequately assess household income and repayment obligations.

Structural Challenges and Overlapping Loans
The issue of overlapping loans to the same customers has further exacerbated the sector’s challenges. Vineet Chattree, Managing Director of Svatantra Microfin Pvt Ltd, pointed out that this practice has increased leverage across the industry, making it difficult for borrowers to keep up with repayments.

Historical disruptions like demonetization in 2016 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 have also acted as trigger points for defaults. R. Bhaskar Babu, CEO of Suryoday Small Finance Bank, noted that these events disrupted the traditional group meeting model for repayments, which had been a cornerstone of microfinance operations. “Each company will now have to find its own solution,” he added, emphasizing the need for innovation and adaptation within the sector.

Steps Toward Recovery
Despite the current headwinds, the industry has begun taking steps to address the crisis. According to Sadaf Sayeed, the microfinance sector has reduced its outstanding loan book by ₹40,000 crore as part of its deleveraging efforts. Additionally, the self-regulatory body Microfinance Institutions Network (MFIN) has tightened its lending norms. Members are now advised to refrain from lending to customers with overdue loans of more than 60 days and outstanding amounts exceeding ₹3,000, compared to the earlier 90-day threshold.

Regional Disparities and Natural Calamities
Regional disparities have also played a significant role in the sector’s struggles. High per capita income states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka have shown relatively better repayment trends. In contrast, states like Odisha, Jharkhand, and Bihar have been hit hard by natural calamities and other socio-economic issues. However, there are signs of improvement post the Kharif crop harvest, as rural households gain liquidity to address overdue loans.

Balancing Returns and Affordability
Balancing profitability with borrower affordability remains a critical challenge for microfinance institutions (MFIs). Sayeed stated that Muthoot Microfin has set a net interest margin target of 12% to 13%, which aims to ensure sustainable returns for investors while keeping interest rates reasonable for borrowers. This balanced approach is vital for the sector to regain stability and maintain its social impact.

Outlook: Stabilization in Sight?
While the current fiscal year has been challenging, industry experts express cautious optimism for the future. The combination of deleveraging efforts, stricter regulatory compliance, and potential economic recovery post-harvest season provides a glimmer of hope. However, the sector must continue addressing structural issues, such as overleveraging and overlapping loans, to build a more resilient framework.

In conclusion, the rise in delinquencies in microfinance loans underscores the need for a holistic approach that considers borrower affordability, effective regulatory oversight, and sustainable lending practices. As a key driver of financial inclusion, the sector’s recovery is essential not only for rural households but also for the broader economy. Stakeholders must collaborate to ensure that microfinance continues to empower communities while navigating the complexities of a dynamic economic landscape.

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SME IPO Migration: Key Changes in SEBI Guidelines

SME IPO Migration: Key Changes in SEBI Guidelines

On 18th December 2024, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) issued revised guidelines for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) seeking to migrate from the SME platform to the mainboard of stock exchanges. These updated norms aim to ensure financial robustness and operational stability for companies making the transition. The guidelines apply to both BSE and NSE platforms and are as follows:

Migration to Mainboard
For SMEs to migrate to the BSE Mainboard, they must meet the following criteria:

  • Paid-up Capital: The company should have a paid-up capital exceeding ₹10 crores.
  • Market Capitalization: The company’s market capitalization must be at least ₹25 crores.
  • Net Worth: A minimum net worth of ₹15 crores for the two preceding full financial years is required.
  • Listing Duration: The company must have been listed on the SME platform of the Exchange for at least three years.
  • Positive EBITDA: The company should have posted a positive EBITDA for at least two out of the last three financial years.
  • Positive PAT: A positive Profit After Tax (PAT) in the immediate financial year of making the migration application is necessary.
    Migration to NSE Mainboard

For SMEs to migrate to the NSE Mainboard, the guidelines are slightly stricter, requiring:

  • Paid-up Capital: The company must have a paid-up capital of ₹10 crores or more.
  • Market Capitalization: A minimum market capitalization of ₹25 crores is mandatory.
  • Net Worth: The company should have a net worth of at least ₹75 crores.
  • Listing Duration: A listing period of three years on the SME platform is essential.
  • Positive EBITDA: A positive EBITDA from operations for each of the preceding three financial years is required.
  • Positive PAT: The company must show a positive PAT in the immediate financial year prior to applying for migration.

Disclaimer
These guidelines, issued on 18th December 2024, are subject to change at the discretion of the exchanges.

The revised criteria reinforce the importance of consistent financial performance and operational maturity for SMEs looking to scale up to the mainboard.

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Auto Industry Nears ₹25,000 Cr Import Reduction Target

Auto Industry Nears ₹25,000 Cr Import Reduction Target

The Indian automotive industry is on course to achieve its ambitious goal of reducing imports by ₹25,000 crore (approximately $3 billion) by the end of the current fiscal year. This initiative focuses on increasing the localization of advanced components such as electric motors, airbags, and automatic transmissions. Industry assessments indicate that significant progress has been made, with further advancements anticipated in the coming years.

Localization Efforts and Achievements
In an effort to reduce dependency on imports, the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) and the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association (ACMA) have spearheaded localization programs targeting 11 critical categories, including drive transmissions, engines, steering systems, electronics, and electrical parts. These components account for about 70% of total imports in the sector.

Between FY20 and FY22, the industry achieved net localization gains of ₹7,018 crore. Building on this momentum, there is an ongoing effort to realize an additional ₹17,977 crore in net localization by FY25. This cumulative effort is expected to meet the ₹25,000 crore import reduction target set for the current fiscal year.

Shradha Suri Marwah, President of ACMA, highlighted the industry’s progress, stating, “Value-addition from the Indian auto components industry has gone up significantly in the last couple of years. In the first phase (till FY22), we achieved double the target of attaining localization level at about 6%. The second phase is underway. The industry is targeting deepening localization by another 15%.”
ECONOMIC TIMES

Investments and Technological Advancements
To support these localization efforts, component manufacturers are investing in new facilities and technologies. This includes the development of advanced manufacturing processes and the adoption of cutting-edge technologies to produce complex components domestically. Such investments not only reduce import dependence but also enhance the competitiveness of Indian manufacturers in the global market.

Government Initiatives and Policy Support
The Indian government has introduced several initiatives to bolster the automotive sector’s localization efforts. The Performance-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, for instance, aims to promote the production of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel vehicles, with an allocation of ₹26,000 crore (US$3.61 billion). This scheme is expected to generate approximately 750,000 direct jobs in the auto sector and reduce the country’s carbon footprint.
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Additionally, the government’s focus on developing infrastructure for electric vehicles and promoting sustainable mobility solutions further supports the industry’s localization objectives.

Impact on the Indian Economy
The localization drive is anticipated to have a positive impact on the Indian economy by reducing the trade deficit and fostering the growth of the domestic manufacturing sector. By producing critical components locally, the industry can retain more value within the country, create employment opportunities, and stimulate economic development.

Moreover, the increased focus on localization aligns with India’s vision of becoming a global automotive hub. Projections indicate that the Indian auto market is poised to reach USD 300 billion by 2026, driven by rising income levels, urbanization, and a burgeoning middle class.
ECONOMIC TIMES

Challenges and Future Outlook
While significant progress has been made, the industry faces challenges in achieving deeper localization. These include the need for substantial capital investment, development of technical expertise, and ensuring quality standards that meet global benchmarks.

To address these challenges, collaboration between industry stakeholders, government bodies, and educational institutions is essential. Such partnerships can facilitate skill development, research and development, and the creation of a robust supply chain ecosystem.

Looking ahead, the Indian automotive industry is expected to continue its localization efforts, with reassessments and the setting of new targets in consultation with the government. This ongoing commitment to reducing import dependence and enhancing domestic manufacturing capabilities positions India favorably in the global automotive landscape.

In conclusion, the Indian automotive industry’s concerted efforts towards localization are yielding tangible results, bringing the sector closer to its import reduction targets. With continued investments, policy support, and collaborative initiatives, the industry is well-positioned to achieve its goals and contribute significantly to the nation’s economic growth.

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Shriram Finance's $1.27 Billion ECB Deal Sets Record

Shriram Finance’s $1.27 Billion ECB Deal Sets Record

Shriram Finance, India’s second-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC), is on the verge of securing a landmark $1.27 billion external commercial borrowing (ECB) deal. This multi-tranche, multi-currency loan is poised to become the largest such transaction by any Indian NBFC. The deal highlights Shriram Finance’s strategic approach to diversifying its funding sources and reflects the growing importance of foreign currency borrowings in the current regulatory environment.

Deal Overview
The $1.27 billion loan comprises multiple tranches with maturities ranging from three to five years. Leading global financial institutions are participating in this monumental deal, including HSBC (UK), MUFG and SMBC (Japan), International Finance Corporation (IFC) from the World Bank Group, DBS Bank (Singapore), BNP Paribas (France), Standard Chartered Bank, and First Abu Dhabi Bank.

According to insiders, the largest component of the deal is a three-year loan valued at $900 million. This triple-currency tranche includes $600 million denominated in US dollars, with the remaining amount split almost equally between dirhams and euros. Additionally, MUFG has provided a three-and-a-half-year bilateral loan of $275 million, while IFC has contributed $10 million via a five-year loan. The loans are expected to be syndicated further among other global banks by early 2025.

Interest Rates and Cost of Borrowing
The $900-million three-year tranche has been priced at 200 basis points (bps) over the three-month secured overnight financing rate (SOFR), which is currently trading at 4.76%. This implies an effective interest rate of approximately 6.76%. Similarly, MUFG’s $275 million loan is priced at 205 bps above SOFR, resulting in a cost of 6.81%. IFC’s five-year loan is the most expensive, priced at 210 bps over SOFR, equating to an interest rate of 6.86%.

These rates reflect the competitiveness of the deal, especially given the global interest rate environment. For Shriram Finance, accessing foreign currency loans at these rates not only provides cost-effective capital but also ensures longer tenures compared to domestic borrowings.

Strategic Implications
The significance of this deal extends beyond its record-breaking size. It underscores the increasing reliance of Indian NBFCs on external financing in the wake of tightened domestic regulations. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has recently expressed concerns over the rising exposure of banks to the NBFC sector. Consequently, bank funding for NBFCs has dried up, forcing these institutions to explore alternative avenues such as ECBs.

Foreign currency borrowings present a viable solution for NBFCs, offering several advantages:
Diversification of Funding Sources: By tapping into international markets, NBFCs can reduce their dependency on domestic banks and mutual funds.

Attractive Pricing: Given the competitive interest rates, ECBs often prove more cost-effective than domestic borrowings.

Longer Maturities: Foreign loans typically come with longer tenures, which align better with the asset-liability management requirements of NBFCs.

Umesh Revankar, Executive Vice Chairman of Shriram Finance, confirmed the company’s plans, emphasizing that the funds will be deployed to support its lending business. “This deal helps diversify our funding sources and strengthens our liquidity position,” he said.

Utilization of Funds
Shriram Finance is primarily known for its commercial vehicle (CV) financing business. However, the company is actively working to diversify its loan book. As of September 2024, CVs and passenger vehicles accounted for 67% of its Rs 2.33 lakh crore portfolio. The remaining portfolio comprises loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and other segments.

The proceeds from the ECB deal will be channeled toward expanding the company’s lending operations, with a focus on increasing its exposure to MSMEs. This strategic shift aligns with Shriram’s long-term vision of reducing concentration risk and capturing growth opportunities in underpenetrated markets.

Market Context
The timing of this deal is significant. Over the past year, the global interest rate environment has been volatile, with central banks across the world tightening monetary policies to combat inflation. Despite this, Shriram Finance has managed to secure competitive rates, demonstrating its strong credit profile and the confidence of international lenders.

In the Indian context, the RBI’s regulatory tightening has prompted NBFCs to reassess their funding strategies. ECBs have emerged as an attractive alternative, offering liquidity at competitive rates. However, such borrowings also come with risks, including currency fluctuations and interest rate volatility. Shriram Finance’s decision to opt for a multi-currency structure mitigates some of these risks by diversifying its exposure across different currencies.

Challenges and Outlook
While the deal marks a significant milestone for Shriram Finance, it is not without challenges. Currency risks remain a critical concern, especially given the volatility in exchange rates. The company’s ability to effectively hedge these risks will determine the net cost of borrowing. Additionally, the rising cost of capital globally could impact profitability margins in the long run.

On the operational front, the success of Shriram’s diversification strategy will depend on its ability to scale its MSME lending portfolio while maintaining asset quality. The MSME sector, though lucrative, is inherently risky due to its vulnerability to economic cycles.

Despite these challenges, the outlook for Shriram Finance remains positive. The company’s strong track record in the CV financing space, combined with its proactive approach to funding and diversification, positions it well to navigate the evolving landscape.

Conclusion
Shriram Finance’s $1.27 billion ECB deal sets a new benchmark for Indian NBFCs. It reflects the company’s robust financial health, its commitment to innovation, and its ability to adapt to changing market dynamics. By securing this funding, Shriram Finance is not only addressing immediate liquidity needs but also laying the groundwork for sustainable growth. As the company diversifies its loan book and strengthens its presence in the MSME segment, it is poised to further consolidate its position as a leader in the Indian financial services industry.

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India's Push for Self-Reliance in Electronics Manufacturing: Government Support and Industry Growth

India’s Push for Self-Reliance in Electronics Manufacturing: Government Support and Industry Growth

In recent years, India has taken significant strides toward becoming a global hub for electronics manufacturing, driven by the government’s production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes. These initiatives, aimed at promoting domestic manufacturing of various products, have particularly targeted sectors such as mobile phones and information technology hardware. While these efforts have successfully scaled up India’s capability in final assembly, experts suggest that the next step in India’s electronics manufacturing journey is to deepen its presence in the supply chain.

The challenge ahead lies in increasing the domestic value addition, which is currently at a modest 18-20%. The government’s ambition is to boost this figure to 40% within the next five years. However, to achieve this, it is crucial to develop a domestic electronic component supply base from scratch, an area where India remains significantly underdeveloped. To address this issue, the Indian government is planning to roll out a financial support package aimed at nurturing the nascent electronic component ecosystem and ensuring that India becomes a key player in the global electronics supply chain.

The Need for a Robust Component Ecosystem
Currently, India is heavily reliant on imports to meet its electronic component needs. According to the Electronics Industries Association of India (ELCINA), the country imports about 70% of its electronic components, which poses a significant challenge to achieving self-reliance in electronics manufacturing. Rajoo Goel, the Secretary General of ELCINA, highlighted the need for a special scheme that offers both production and capital incentives to bridge this gap and help the country compete with nations like China and Vietnam, which have established and scalable electronics component manufacturing bases.

The government’s planned financial support package aims to change this by providing incentives that will attract both domestic companies and global component makers to set up production in India. This package will focus on creating infrastructure, offering subsidies, and providing incentives for manufacturing components such as printed circuit boards (PCBs), display assemblies, camera modules, connectors, and lithium-ion cells. These components account for a substantial portion of the Bill of Materials (BoM) in electronic goods, yet India currently only produces about 10% of the total value of these components. This creates a substantial demand-supply gap, which is predominantly filled through imports, primarily from China and Hong Kong.

India’s Increasing Appeal for Global Electronics Players
Despite the challenges, India’s progress in mobile phones, laptops, tablets, and other electronic components has attracted the attention of global players. Several domestic and international companies are increasingly looking to India for its favorable resources, including access to talent, land, water, electricity, and a stable governance structure. This shift in focus is underscored by the increasing number of companies entering India’s component manufacturing space.

For instance, domestic electronics manufacturer Dion Technologies recently signed a deal with Chinese display maker HKC to manufacture display modules for smartphones, tablets, and laptops. The company plans to invest Rs 250 crore in setting up a new facility. Similarly, TDK, a leading Japanese supplier of lithium-ion cells, is investing Rs 7,000 crore to set up a manufacturing base in Manesar. This facility is expected to cater to the growing demand for batteries in electronics manufacturing, particularly for smartphones.

Other companies, including Motherson Group, BIEL Crystal Manufactory, and Corning, are also making significant investments in India to tap into the country’s growing electronics manufacturing potential. These investments reflect a broader shift in India’s approach towards becoming self-reliant in electronics manufacturing, moving beyond assembly to component production, which is a key part of the value chain.

Government Initiatives and the Path Forward
The government’s PLI scheme has already set the foundation for scaling up mobile phone and IT hardware manufacturing in India. However, experts argue that more needs to be done to address the underlying issues in the component ecosystem. The proposed financial support package is expected to allocate approximately Rs 40,000 crore in subsidies and incentives to encourage the production of non-semiconductor components.

The package is crucial because India’s current electronics component production stands at a mere $10.75 billion, which is only around 10% of the total electronics production. This disparity highlights the significant room for growth. For instance, India imported $76 billion worth of components in FY24, despite producing finished electronic goods worth $115 billion. This growing dependency on imports poses a challenge to the sustainability of India’s electronics manufacturing ambitions, especially with the projected growth in demand.

According to the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), 60-70% of electronics imports comprise components and sub-assemblies. As India’s electronics production is expected to double to $500 billion by 2030, the demand for components is projected to grow at an annual rate of 53%, creating a demand-supply gap of over $100 billion.

Overcoming Challenges in Component Manufacturing
One of the key hurdles that India’s component manufacturing sector faces is the lack of scale. The industry is currently dominated by mid to small-sized homegrown companies that often struggle to meet the high quality and precision standards required by global players. A report by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) suggests that to scale up the industry and compete globally, the government should provide support of 9% over the next ten years to offset disabilities and achieve economies of scale.

Component manufacturers in India also face a significant cost disadvantage. A NITI Aayog report identified that the high cost of inputs, including tariffs on materials, logistics costs, and financing costs, results in a 14-18% disability compared to countries like China. These cost disadvantages, coupled with the absence of original design manufacturers and limited access to global demand, have slowed the growth of the domestic component ecosystem.

The government’s planned financial support package aims to address these challenges by providing operational and capital expenditure (capex) support. Components like lithium-ion cells, PCBs, and camera modules will receive targeted incentives based on their existing presence in the market and their potential for growth. For example, lithium-ion cells will receive capex support, while display and camera modules, which already have a foothold in India, will primarily receive operational support.

Strategic Collaborations and Vendor Development
One of the driving forces behind India’s push to strengthen its electronics manufacturing capabilities is the growing collaboration between global companies and domestic manufacturers. Companies like Apple have been actively working with Indian suppliers to integrate them into their global supply chains. Apple, for example, has a vendor development team dedicated to shortlisting potential suppliers from India. The company aims to integrate 40-70 Indian suppliers into its global supply chain, up from the current 15 suppliers.

Other companies, such as Dixon Technologies and Bhagwati Products, have also forged partnerships with original design manufacturers (ODMs) like Huaqin and Longcheer to improve their manufacturing capabilities and meet the quality standards required for global markets. These collaborations are vital for upgrading India’s component manufacturing ecosystem and aligning it with international standards.

Conclusion
India’s electronics manufacturing sector is at a critical juncture. While the country has made remarkable progress in assembling electronic products, the next phase of growth lies in developing a robust domestic component ecosystem. The government’s planned financial support package, along with strategic collaborations between global players and Indian manufacturers, will play a key role in achieving self-reliance in electronics manufacturing. With the right support and investments, India has the potential to become a global leader in electronics manufacturing, significantly reducing its reliance on imports and strengthening its position in the global supply chain.

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Mixed Reactions in NBFC Stocks Post RBI's CRR Cut

Mixed Reactions in NBFC Stocks Post RBI’s CRR Cut

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) recent decision to cut the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points has injected liquidity into the banking system, but its impact on Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) has been mixed. While leading NBFCs like Bajaj Finance witnessed a stock price rise of around 4%, and gold loan players such as Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance saw gains, other segments, including NBFC-Microfinance Institutions (MFIs), experienced declines. This uneven response underscores investor caution, with decisions being made on a case-by-case basis rather than an industry-wide optimism.

Declining Bank Lending to NBFCs: A Closer Look

The slowdown in bank lending to NBFCs is not surprising, given the regulatory headwinds the sector faces. Several factors have contributed to this trend:

Increased Risk Weightage: Last year, the RBI increased the risk weightage on NBFC loans by 25 basis points to 125%. This move made loans to NBFCs more capital-intensive for banks, discouraging lending.

Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) Norms: Proposed changes in LCR norms require banks to maintain a higher proportion of liquid assets. Additionally, a 5% runoff factor on retail deposits facilitated through digital platforms has further constrained funds available for lending to high-risk borrowers, including NBFCs.

RBI Warnings: The central bank’s repeated cautioning about rising exposure to high-risk NBFCs has nudged banks to reduce their lending.

Data Speaks: A Grim Outlook

The impact of these measures is evident in RBI’s data on bank lending to NBFCs. Bank lending to the segment has contracted by 0.7% until October 18 this fiscal year, compared to a robust 7.6% growth in the corresponding period last year. Year-on-year growth also plunged sharply to 6.4% as of October-end, down from 18.3% in the previous year.

In absolute terms, lending fell to ₹15.3 lakh crore from ₹15.5 lakh crore. The fallout has been particularly severe for smaller, low-rated NBFCs (rated AA and below), which are more reliant on bank funding. In contrast, larger, top-rated NBFCs have turned to alternative sources such as the money markets to meet their funding needs.

RBI’s Concerns About NBFC Loan Books

The RBI’s discomfort stems largely from the nature of NBFC loan portfolios, which are heavily tilted towards high-margin, high-risk unsecured loans. While these loans have been lucrative for NBFCs due to their ease of disbursal and attractive margins, they also pose significant risks during economic downturns. Rising defaults in these segments can lead to a surge in non-performing assets (NPAs), potentially affecting the balance sheets of both NBFCs and their lending banks.

In response to the RBI’s warnings, both banks and NBFCs have started curbing their exposure to unsecured loans. This is a necessary but challenging transition for the industry as it seeks to balance profitability with prudence.

Moderation in Industry Growth

According to a December 2 note by rating agency Crisil, growth in assets under management (AUM) for NBFCs is expected to slow to 15-17% in the current and next fiscal years. This marks a decline of 600-800 basis points from the strong 23% growth seen last fiscal. While this projected growth is still above the decadal average of ~14% (fiscal 2014-2024), it signals a cooling off as NBFCs adapt to evolving regulatory and operational dynamics.

Crisil identifies three key factors contributing to this moderation:

Rising Household Indebtedness: Concerns around rising debt levels and associated asset quality risks are forcing NBFCs to recalibrate their growth strategies, particularly in segments like microfinance and unsecured loans.

Enhanced Regulatory Compliance: Stricter norms on customer protection, pricing disclosures, and operational compliance are increasing costs and complexity for NBFCs.

Diversified Funding Challenges: Access to diversified funding sources has become a critical determinant of growth. With bank lending slowing, smaller NBFCs face significant challenges in raising funds, unlike their larger counterparts who have access to corporate bond markets and external commercial borrowings (ECBs).

Will the CRR Cut Boost Bank Lending?

The CRR cut is expected to inject ₹1.16 lakh crore into the banking system, but its impact on NBFC lending may be limited. The fundamental reasons for the slowdown in bank lending—RBI’s concerns over the high-risk nature of NBFC portfolios and the proposed LCR norms—remain unchanged.

According to Sanjay Agarwal, Senior Director at CARE Ratings, top-rated NBFCs are unlikely to turn back to banks for funding anytime soon. These companies are securing cheaper funds from overseas bonds and ECBs, even after accounting for hedging costs. They also benefit from robust supply in the domestic corporate bond market and private sources like Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) and family offices.

Smaller, low-rated NBFCs, however, continue to struggle. Banks typically avoid lending to such entities due to their perceived risk. This dynamic is unlikely to change in the near term, despite the additional liquidity in the banking system.

Looking Ahead: A Glimmer of Hope in 2025?

The lending landscape may shift if interest rates decline significantly in 2025. The RBI is expected to ease rates by 50-75 basis points next year, provided inflation sustains below 5%. Lower rates could make bank loans more attractive for top-rated NBFCs, potentially reviving lending activity. However, this recovery would depend on broader economic conditions and the ability of NBFCs to align with regulatory expectations.

Conclusion

The RBI’s CRR cut has provided immediate liquidity to banks but has done little to alleviate the structural challenges facing NBFCs. With regulatory pressures mounting and access to traditional funding sources narrowing, the sector is navigating a period of recalibration. While larger, well-rated NBFCs continue to find alternative funding avenues, smaller players face significant hurdles. The road ahead will depend on how effectively the sector adapts to these challenges and the trajectory of interest rates in the coming years.

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November 2024 Auto Sales: A Market in Flux

November 2024 Auto Sales: A Market in Flux

The Indian automobile industry in November 2024 presented a vivid contrast, with the passenger vehicle (PV) segment grappling with challenges while the two-wheeler (2W) market enjoyed a resurgence. Data from the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) highlighted a 14% decline in car sales juxtaposed with a 16% growth in two-wheeler sales, reflecting a tale of two distinct consumer behaviors.

Passenger Vehicles: A Slowdown Post Festive Highs
Passenger vehicle sales slumped in November, marking a sharp decline from the record-breaking October sales fueled by festive demand during Dussehra and Diwali. The steep fall points to an exhausted pent-up demand, signaling market normalization after the seasonal high.

Segmental Challenges:
While SUVs and utility vehicles (UVs) performed well during October’s festivities, sedans and hatchbacks saw waning interest. The UV segment has increasingly captured market share, accounting for nearly half of the total PV sales, as highlighted by robust October growth rates of 13.9% year-on-year (YoY). However, this shift may have temporarily disrupted supply chains, contributing to November’s downturn.

Rising Costs and Interest Rates:
Higher vehicle prices, coupled with elevated interest rates on auto loans, deterred prospective buyers. Rising input costs, particularly for essential components like steel and semiconductors, have driven automakers to hike prices, impacting affordability for middle-income consumers.

Inventory Challenges:
Dealers struggled with high inventory levels post-festivals, especially in Tier-II and Tier-III markets. The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) noted that the increase in wholesale dispatches ahead of festivals did not translate into sustained retail demand, leading to overstocking.

Two-Wheelers: Resilience Amid Adversity
In contrast to passenger vehicles, two-wheelers emerged as a growth story in November, continuing their festive-season momentum. The 16% YoY growth reflects strong rural demand, affordability, and evolving urban mobility needs.

Rural Demand Drives Growth:
The revival of rural demand, aided by improved agricultural incomes and targeted financing options, played a significant role in boosting sales. Hero MotoCorp and TVS Motors capitalized on this trend, registering robust sales growth during the month.

Shift to Electric Vehicles (EVs):
Electric two-wheelers continued gaining traction, reflecting changing consumer preferences for sustainable and cost-efficient options. Companies such as TVS Motors reported a 45% YoY surge in EV sales during October, and the trend likely continued into November.

Affordability and Accessibility:
Two-wheelers remain the preferred choice for middle-income households due to their affordability. Rising fuel prices have also nudged consumers toward scooters and motorcycles, which are economical and convenient for daily commutes.

Broader Market Implications
Export Markets Thrive:
Both PV and 2W manufacturers reported significant growth in export markets. Royal Enfield witnessed a 150% jump in exports, leveraging its strong brand presence in South Asia and Latin America. Similarly, Bajaj Auto and Hero MotoCorp achieved double-digit export growth, diversifying revenue streams amid domestic challenges.

Urban vs. Rural Divide:
The urban-rural split continues to shape the auto market. While urban centers saw a slowdown in PV demand due to economic uncertainties, rural regions fueled two-wheeler growth, aided by better monsoon outcomes and favorable MSP (Minimum Support Price) policies for crops.

EVs Gain Momentum:
Across segments, the focus on electric mobility intensified. Automakers expanded EV portfolios to cater to rising demand, driven by government incentives, lower running costs, and growing environmental awareness among consumers.

Policy Recommendations
Credit Support:
Policymakers should enhance credit access for consumers, particularly in rural areas, to sustain two-wheeler demand. Interest rate subsidies or targeted financing schemes could address affordability challenges in the PV segment.

EV Incentives:
The government should continue supporting EV adoption through subsidies and infrastructure development, such as expanding charging networks. Addressing bottlenecks in EV component supply chains could further accelerate growth.

Rural Development:
Strengthening rural infrastructure and enhancing income opportunities will indirectly boost auto demand. Policies targeting improved road connectivity and last-mile mobility solutions can create new opportunities for automakers.

Conclusion
November 2024’s auto sales highlight the complexities of India’s automobile market. While passenger vehicles face short-term challenges, the two-wheeler segment’s robust performance reflects resilience and adaptability. For stakeholders across the value chain, understanding these dynamics and aligning strategies accordingly will be critical. Investors, in particular, should focus on long-term themes such as electrification and rural penetration to navigate the sector’s evolving landscape.

The Indian auto industry stands at a crossroads, with opportunities in sustainable mobility and export growth offering a pathway to future resilience. By leveraging these trends, the sector can weather current headwinds and emerge stronger in the years to come.

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RBI Maintains Neutral Stance: Balancing Inflation Risks and Growth Slowdown

RBI Maintains Neutral Stance: Balancing Inflation Risks and Growth Slowdown

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) extended its status quo on policy rates in its latest meeting, keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. The decision, supported by a majority vote of 4 out of 6 members, underscores the central bank’s cautious approach in managing inflation risks while ensuring sustained economic recovery. Notably, two members voted for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut, reflecting concerns over the ongoing growth slowdown.

Inflation Concerns Shape Policy Decision
The RBI’s decision to maintain its neutral stance stems from an uptick in inflationary pressures. The central bank sharply revised its baseline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation forecast for Q3 FY25, raising it by 0.9 percentage points. Similarly, the full-year inflation forecast has been increased by 0.3 percentage points, highlighting persistent price pressures.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated the significance of price stability, emphasizing its role in supporting sustained growth. “High inflation adversely impacts consumption and investment activity,” he noted, signaling the MPC’s vigilance in managing inflation expectations. The October CPI print of over 6%—driven primarily by food inflation—further underscores the need for caution.

Revised Growth Projections Reflect Slowdown
Acknowledging weaker-than-expected economic performance in the first half of FY25, the RBI lowered its full-year GDP growth forecast from 7.2% to 6.6%. The second quarter witnessed a seven-quarter low in growth, prompting a recalibration of projections.

Despite this, the RBI projects a rebound in the latter half of FY25, with real GDP growth expected to rise to 7% in H2 FY25. Governor Das expressed confidence in the recovery, citing early signs of improvement in high-frequency indicators such as rural demand, government consumption, and external trade.

Liquidity Measures to Support Growth
In a move to address liquidity challenges, the RBI announced a 50 bps reduction in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), bringing it down to 4% of banks’ net demand and time liabilities. This measure, last implemented in April 2022, is expected to inject approximately ₹1.16 trillion into the banking system.

This liquidity infusion aims to counter tightness arising from the RBI’s dollar sales to stabilize the rupee. Current estimates suggest a durable liquidity surplus of ₹1.88 trillion, significantly lower than the ₹4.88 trillion recorded in early October.

The CRR cut complements other liquidity-enhancing measures, such as raising the ceiling rate on Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) [FCNR(B)] deposits by 1.5% above the reference rate until March 2025. This move seeks to attract higher capital inflows amidst declining foreign portfolio investments (FPIs) and net foreign direct investments (FDIs).

Inflation and Growth Outlook
Inflation Trajectory:
The RBI’s revised inflation projections signal a cautious outlook. Headline inflation is expected to average 5.7% in Q3 FY25, up from the previous estimate of 4.8%. Over the subsequent two quarters, inflation is projected to moderate to 4.55%, before aligning with the RBI’s 4% target in Q2 FY26.

Food inflation, a key driver, is anticipated to ease with the arrival of the winter crop and improved supply chain dynamics. However, the potential for second-round effects from elevated food prices remains a concern. Surveys indicate that input and selling prices could firm up in Q4, necessitating close monitoring of inflation data in the coming months.

Growth Prospects:
Despite the downward revision in growth forecasts, the RBI remains optimistic about a recovery. Factors supporting this outlook include robust Kharif production, favorable Rabi crop prospects, and an uptick in investment activity.

High capacity utilization in the private manufacturing sector and the government’s fiscal space for increased capital expenditure are expected to bolster growth. Additionally, resilient global trade and buoyant services demand are likely to sustain external and urban consumption, although geopolitical and geo-economic uncertainties pose risks.

Policy Implications and the Road Ahead
The MPC’s cautious approach suggests that policy easing in the February 2025 meeting will hinge on inflation and growth dynamics. With inflation projected to remain above the 4% target until mid-2025, any rate cuts will depend on a durable reduction in price pressures.

The infusion of durable liquidity through the CRR cut provides the RBI with the flexibility to monitor macroeconomic conditions. Financial conditions remain supportive, as evidenced by strong bank credit growth surpassing nominal GDP growth and robust credit deployment across key sectors.

The National Statistical Office (NSO) will release advance GDP estimates before the next MPC meeting, offering critical insights into underlying economic momentum. While the baseline trajectory suggests room for a cumulative 50 bps rate cut under a neutral stance, persistent inflationary pressures could delay monetary easing. Conversely, if growth underwhelms, the MPC may adopt an accommodative stance, potentially enabling up to 100 bps of rate cuts over the next year.

Conclusion
The RBI’s latest policy decision reflects a balanced approach, prioritizing inflation management while addressing growth concerns. By maintaining a neutral stance and implementing targeted liquidity measures, the central bank aims to navigate a challenging macroeconomic landscape. The trajectory of inflation and growth in the coming months will be crucial in determining the MPC’s future course of action. For now, the RBI’s cautious optimism provides a foundation for sustaining economic recovery amidst global uncertainties.

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India-Japan Collaboration: Pioneering the Semiconductor Ecosystem Development

India-Japan Collaboration: Pioneering the Semiconductor Ecosystem Development

India’s ambitious strides in the semiconductor sector have found a promising ally in Japan, as Japanese firms express keen interest in setting up semiconductor units in the country. With their advanced expertise, global leadership in semiconductor components, and operational experience, Japanese companies are ideally positioned to partner with Indian counterparts to build a resilient semiconductor ecosystem. Deloitte has highlighted the potential for this collaboration, emphasizing the critical role of skilled labor, financial resources, and consistent government support to achieve India’s semiconductor goals.

India and Japan: Strategic Partners in the Semiconductor Journey
In July 2024, India and Japan signed a landmark memorandum of cooperation aimed at the joint development of the semiconductor ecosystem. This partnership seeks to bolster semiconductor design, manufacturing, equipment research, talent development, and supply chain resilience. This agreement positioned Japan as the second Quad member, after the United States, to commit to enhancing India’s semiconductor capabilities.

According to Shingo Kamaya, Deloitte’s Asia Pacific and Semiconductor and Technology Risk Leader, Japanese firms are “super enthusiastic” about India’s potential in this sector. The agreement reflects the shared vision of the two nations to address global semiconductor supply chain vulnerabilities while fostering sustainable growth in the industry.

Japan’s Semiconductor Expertise: A Catalyst for India’s Vision
Japan ranks among the top five countries globally in terms of semiconductor ecosystem maturity, boasting nearly 100 semiconductor manufacturing plants. Its firms are recognized leaders in essential semiconductor components, including raw wafers, chemicals, specialized gases, and high-precision lenses used in chip manufacturing equipment. Furthermore, Japan’s advanced display technologies align with India’s aspirations to expand its technological capabilities.

India, which has set an ambitious target of establishing 10 semiconductor manufacturing plants over the next decade, views Japan as a critical partner. As Rohit Berry, President of Strategy, Risk, and Transactions at Deloitte India, pointed out, Japan’s technology and specialization make it an invaluable collaborator for building a robust semiconductor ecosystem.

“There is no better partner to develop such an ambitious and critical ecosystem than Japan,” Berry noted. He emphasized that Japan’s experience in setting up comprehensive semiconductor ecosystems, both domestically and internationally, is essential for replicating similar success in India.

Building an Ecosystem: Beyond Individual Factories
India’s semiconductor development plan is not limited to constructing isolated manufacturing units. The vision entails creating a comprehensive ecosystem that includes research, design, talent cultivation, and supply chain integration. Berry explained, “The semiconductor story in India is about the entire ecosystem. Many Japanese companies have already established such ecosystems elsewhere, and their expertise will be critical for India.”

This holistic approach aligns with India’s goal of fostering long-term growth and global competitiveness in the semiconductor domain. Collaborative efforts between Indian and Japanese firms are seen as fundamental to achieving this vision. Berry highlighted the importance of enduring partnerships, noting, “This is not a one-year game or a two-year game. This will benefit India and Japan for generations.”

Key Enablers for Growth: Skilled Workforce, Investments, and Incentives
A skilled workforce is among the primary enablers for India’s semiconductor ambitions. Developing industry-ready talent will require extensive training programs, curriculum updates, and international collaborations. Japan’s experience in nurturing specialized semiconductor talent can provide valuable insights for India’s educational and industrial policies.

Additionally, sustained financial investments are essential. Japanese firms’ willingness to invest in India reflects their confidence in the market’s potential. At the same time, Indian government initiatives such as production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes, financial subsidies, and tax benefits are expected to play a pivotal role in attracting and retaining investments.

Government support at both the central and state levels remains crucial. Kamaya emphasized the need for a “center-state partnership” to facilitate seamless operations and collaboration. Aligning incentives across all stakeholders — the central government, state governments, private firms, and international partners like Japan — will create an environment conducive to innovation and growth.

A Long-Term Commitment for a Resilient Supply Chain
The India-Japan semiconductor partnership is set to strengthen the global supply chain. Recent disruptions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, have highlighted the fragility of existing supply networks. By working together, India and Japan aim to create a resilient semiconductor supply chain that benefits not just their domestic markets but also the global technology ecosystem.

Japanese firms are uniquely positioned to contribute to this effort. Their leadership in producing key materials, such as semiconductor wafers and manufacturing chemicals, can address supply bottlenecks. Moreover, integrating Japan’s expertise with India’s growing semiconductor aspirations will create synergies that foster innovation and efficiency.

The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities
While the India-Japan collaboration holds immense promise, challenges remain. Establishing a semiconductor ecosystem requires significant time, capital, and coordination among various stakeholders. Moreover, maintaining consistent government support through policy continuity and fiscal incentives is vital for sustaining momentum.

Berry underscored the long-term nature of the initiative, calling it a “once-in-a-lifetime setup.” He stressed the importance of ensuring that all stakeholders — central and state governments, private sector players, and international partners — work in harmony to achieve common goals.

Conclusion: A Win-Win for India and Japan
The India-Japan partnership in the semiconductor sector represents a convergence of complementary strengths. For India, Japan’s expertise offers a pathway to achieving its ambitious semiconductor targets. For Japan, India provides a growing market and an opportunity to solidify its role in the global semiconductor landscape.

This collaboration is more than an industrial initiative; it is a strategic alignment that will shape the future of technology and innovation. As the two nations embark on this transformative journey, the benefits will extend beyond borders, fostering technological advancement and economic growth for generations to come.

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IT Ministry Proposes ₹40,000 Crore Package to Bolster India’s Electronic Component Industry

IT Ministry Proposes ₹40,000 Crore Package to Bolster India’s Electronic Component Industry

The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) is gearing up to seek the Union Cabinet’s approval for a comprehensive ₹40,000 crore initiative designed to enhance local manufacturing of electronic components. This move aims to strengthen India’s position in the global electronics value chain and reduce reliance on imports. The package could potentially roll out investments as early as April 2025, provided all necessary approvals are secured in December 2024.

Key Features of the Proposed Package
The initiative, which primarily focuses on non-semiconductor components, includes a mix of capital expenditure subsidies and production-linked incentives tied to employment generation. Industry experts view this as a critical step in creating a robust ecosystem for electronic component production in India.

According to a senior government official, the ministry is finalizing details to ensure a smooth rollout. The scheme is aligned with the government’s broader vision of boosting local value addition in electronics manufacturing, from the current 15-18% to 35-40% during its initial five-year tenure, eventually aiming for 50%.

Growing Demand for Electronic Components
India’s electronic component demand is expected to surge from $45.5 billion in 2023 to $240 billion by 2030, fueled by the growing production of mobile phones and other electronic devices. A report by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) underscores the importance of self-reliance in producing components like printed circuit boards (PCBs), camera modules, displays, and lithium-ion cells, which constitute a significant portion of the materials used in mobile phones and IT hardware.

Addressing Local Manufacturing Gaps
Despite the success of production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes in scaling up the final assembly of electronic products, local value addition has lagged behind. This package seeks to bridge that gap by fostering the production of high-priority components. Government officials estimate that the scheme could attract investments totaling ₹82,000 crore and facilitate the production of components worth ₹1.9-2.0 lakh crore over its tenure.

Industry Collaboration and Global Partnerships
The program also emphasizes collaboration with international technology partners and supply chain players, including companies from Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and China. Industry stakeholders have urged the government to expedite approvals for joint ventures and technology transfers, which are vital for the success of this initiative.

“Smartphone and IT hardware brands are actively engaging their supply chain partners to invest in India under this scheme,” said an executive from a leading contract manufacturing firm. These collaborations aim to establish a strong foundation for component manufacturing and integrate domestic firms into global production networks.

Strategic Focus Areas
The initiative targets key components critical to reducing import dependency. These include PCBs, camera modules, displays, mechanical components, and lithium-ion battery assemblies, which collectively accounted for 43% of the component demand in 2022, according to the CII report. By 2030, the value of these components is projected to grow to $51.6 billion.

The government is ensuring that the scheme’s design avoids potential setbacks seen in previous PLI programs. For instance, there are ongoing deliberations on whether to provide incentives based on capital or operational expenditure or a mix of both. Incentive structures may also be linked to employment generation to maximize economic impact.

Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities
Once approved, the industry will have a 90-day window to prepare for investments. This timeline underscores the urgency of securing technology partnerships and identifying potential customers. Industry executives have expressed optimism but also highlighted challenges such as navigating bureaucratic hurdles and securing timely approvals for joint ventures.

The government’s commitment to fostering local manufacturing comes at a crucial juncture as India positions itself as a global electronics manufacturing hub. The proposed scheme complements existing PLI programs and aligns with the nation’s ambition to increase its footprint in advanced manufacturing sectors.

Conclusion
The ₹40,000 crore package proposed by MeitY represents a significant milestone in India’s journey toward becoming a global electronics manufacturing powerhouse. By addressing critical gaps in the domestic supply chain and fostering international collaborations, the initiative holds the potential to transform India’s electronics industry. If implemented effectively, it could not only reduce import dependency but also generate substantial employment and bolster economic growth in the coming decade.

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