AI to Transform Global Trade: WTO Predicts 37% Growth in Trade Value by 2040

AI to Transform Global Trade: WTO Predicts 37% Growth in Trade Value by 2040

In its recently released World Trade Report 2025, the World Trade Organization (WTO) lays out a vision in which artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes global commerce over the next 15 years. Under various modeled scenarios, global trade in goods and services is projected to rise by 34-37% by 2040. Global GDP could grow by 12-13% over the same period. This reflects detailed modeling of how AI capabilities—reducing trade frictions, improving logistics, compliance, communications, and enabling digital delivery of services—can unlock latent growth.

Key Drivers: Fundamentals Behind the Forecasts
1. Trade Cost Reductions & Productivity Gains: The WTO models assume that AI will help reduce operational trade costs significantly—through faster customs procedures, automated risk-compliance, predictive demand forecasting, and optimized shipping and route planning. AI’s contribution to total factor productivity (TFP) is estimated in some contexts to add around 0.68 percentage points annually.
2. Rise in Digitally Deliverable Services: Sectors such as digital services, AI services, software, communications, design, remote diagnostics are expected to see the largest trade growth. In scenarios where policy and tech catch-up is strong, trade in digitally deliverable services could rise by ~42% by 2040. By contrast, trade in manufactured goods increases less (around 24%), raw materials much less (≈10%).
3. AI-Enabling Goods as Critical Inputs: In 2023, global trade in AI-enabling goods (raw materials, semiconductors, intermediate inputs) was valued at approximately USD 2.3 trillion. These form the backbone of AI supply chains. Companies and countries that are upstream in semiconductors, cloud computing infrastructure, high performance computing, etc., stand to benefit both from demand and trade flows.
4. Scenario Dependence & Policy / Tech Catch-Up: Importantly, the WTO simulates multiple scenarios: from “tech divergence” where poorer countries lag in infrastructure, to “AI catch-up” where digital access, policy harmonization, and human capital investments are aggressively pursued. Growth estimates (trade and GDP) vary meaningfully among these cases; inclusive gains depend heavily on closing digital, regulatory, and skills gaps.

Risks and Structural Challenges
* Digital Infrastructure Inequality: Many low and middle income economies currently lack robust broadband, data centers, and computational capacity. Without major investment, they may fail to partake fully.
* Regulatory & Trade Policy Gaps: Tariffs, quantitative restrictions, and non-tariff barriers on AI-enabling goods (e.g., semiconductors, specialized materials) have increased; bound tariffs in some low-income economies reach up to 45%. This erodes competitiveness.
* Concentration Risks: A few firms and a few high-income countries dominate AI chip production, cloud infrastructure, and advanced R&D. These concentration points risk bottlenecks and vulnerability to policy- or trade disruptions.
* Skill & Job Displacement Concerns: Productivity gains may come at the cost of displacing certain types of labor, especially routine, medium-skilled tasks. Unless retraining and education keep pace, social inequality may deepen. The WTO report warns of these risks.

Implications for Investors
* Technology & Infrastructure Suppliers: Companies in semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, edge computing, AI platforms, and software tools stand to capture upstream inputs and services consumption.
* Logistics & Trade Services: Firms engaged in shipping, customs tech, risk compliance, trade finance technology may see margins expand as trade volumes and complexity increase.
* Emerging Markets Opportunity: Countries with improving infrastructure and regulatory frameworks may punch above their weight. The “catch-up” scenarios suggest outsized export gains for digitally deliverable service providers in low-income economies.
* Sector Rotation: With digital services expected to grow ~42%, equity allocations may tilt from traditional manufacturing or raw materials industries toward tech, AI services, communication, software.
* Valuation Pressure and Competition: The very firms that benefit may also see competition increase aggressively—since AI is widely seen as a key growth lever. Margins might compress unless scale, IP, or regulatory moats are strong.

Quantitative Signals & Metrics to Watch
For investors seeking to operationalize these forecasts, a few metrics stand out:
* Growth in AI-related capital expenditure: R&D spend, chip fabs, data center capacity.
* Trade in AI-enabling goods (semiconductors, computing hardware) as a percentage of overall exports/imports.
* Digital trade policy changes: bound tariff reductions, non-tariff barrier (NTB) reforms, regulatory harmonization.
* Adoption rates of AI among SMEs: WTO finds nearly 90% of firms using AI report trade-related benefits; 56% reported better ability to manage trade risk.
* Infrastructure metrics: broadband access, electricity reliability, computational capacity.
* Labor market indicators: skill premium, retraining programs, education output in STEM / AI-relevant disciplines.

Conclusion
The WTO’s projections indicate that AI could serve as a generational pivot in the structure and geography of global trade. The 34-37% increase in trade by 2040, accompanied by 12-13% GDP gains, is not just a forecast but a signal: winners will be those who not only ride AI adoption but are positioned upstream in enabling infrastructure, regulatory foresight, and inclusive innovation ecosystems. Investors should begin stress-testing portfolios against scenarios: what if AI uptake is slower? What if policy remains fragmented? What if competition erodes margins? The more optimistic scenarios assume strong policy and tech catch-up; in weaker scenarios, the growth is substantive but more uneven. For those equity analysts and portfolio managers willing to do deep due diligence—in AI infrastructure, trade tech, digitally deliverable service providers, and emerging markets—this period could represent one of the rare windows for structural outperformance.

The image added is for representation purposes only