Can India’s Private Sector Growth Sustain Itself Amid Cooling Momentum?

Can India’s Private Sector Growth Sustain Itself Amid Cooling Momentum?

India’s private sector entered the autumn of 2025 on a high—then showed signs of moderation. Flash PMI data released in late September recorded a slowdown from August’s multi-year highs: the S&P Global/HSBC composite PMI slipped to 61.9 in September from 63.2 in August, with manufacturing at 58.5 and services at 61.6. While these readings still indicate robust expansion, the moderation is meaningful because it follows exceptionally strong momentum earlier in the summer and coincides with increased external headwinds.

Where the cooling shows up: sectors and indicators
The moderation is broad-based rather than concentrated. Manufacturing’s PMI fell from its more euphoric August print—after a run that saw factory growth hit a 17-year high—suggesting a normalization in new orders and production. Services, though still expanding strongly, recorded slower demand growth and a softening in job creation. Survey respondents cited weaker international orders and heightened competition as key constraints, which dented confidence among exporters and service providers that rely on cross-border demand. Employment gains weakened; firms reported smaller increases in hiring compared with August, which is notable for an economy that depends on sustained private-sector job creation to translate growth into inclusive outcomes.

Macro context: strong growth, but rising external vulnerabilities
At the macro level, India’s headline growth remains solid. Official projections and government releases pointed to a strong start to FY 2025–26, with real GDP expanding by 7.8% in Q1 (released August 30, 2025) compared with a year earlier—evidence that the domestic economy retains considerable underlying strength. Yet this vigor exists alongside mounting external pressures. Portfolio flows turned negative in recent weeks: foreign investors had net sold about $1.3 billion of Indian equities through September 25, 2025, and August saw sizeable FPI outflows from Indian financials (roughly ₹232.9 billion, or about $2.7 billion sold from financial stocks in August). The rupee also tested weaker levels, prompting occasional market intervention. These capital-flow dynamics can blunt private-sector momentum by tightening local financial conditions and raising funding costs for corporates.

Which segments are weakening — and which are holding up
Export-oriented manufacturing and some business services have shown the earliest signs of strain because of softer overseas demand and new tariff frictions affecting global trade. Sectors with larger export exposure reported weaker new orders and tougher pricing environments. By contrast, domestic-facing sectors—construction, FMCG, certain parts of retail and organised consumption—continue to benefit from festival-season demand and easing domestic inflation trends. Financials and infrastructure-linked industries are mixed: credit demand is improving in pockets, but foreign selling and investor caution have amplified volatility in financial stocks. Overall, the pattern is one of decelerating export momentum while domestic demand remains a key plank sustaining activity.

Policy levers: what authorities can and are likely to do
Policymakers have tools to shore up private-sector momentum. The Reserve Bank of India’s immediate stance—markets expected the RBI to hold the repo at 5.50% at its early-October meeting, though a surprise cut was discussed by some economists—reflects a willingness to be data-driven and respond if growth weakens or global conditions warrant easing. Targeted liquidity support, calibrated cuts to policy rates, or regulatory nudges to ease credit to MSMEs and exporters are plausible near-term measures to sustain growth without stoking inflation. On the fiscal side, the government can deploy demand support via capex acceleration, sector-specific relief for export-linked industries, and tax measures timed around festive consumption to keep domestic demand buoyant. The effectiveness of these levers will depend on timely calibration and the persistence of external shocks.

Investor signals to watch
For investors and market observers, five indicators will be especially informative in judging sustainability:
* Final PMI releases (early October 2025) — confirmation that the flash PMI’s moderation is a temporary wobble or a deeper softening.
* Monthly FPI flow data — continued net outflows would tighten financial conditions and raise risk premia for private corporates.
* Rupee movement and central bank intervention — sharp depreciation can raise imported input costs and squeeze margins.
* Corporate earnings guidance for Q2 2025–26 — early warning if demand softening is translating quickly into revenue/ margin pressure.
* Credit off-take and bank lending rates — signs that credit availability is loosening or tightening materially, particularly for MSMEs and capex loans.

Practical implications and conclusion
India’s private sector is not collapsing — the economy had a strong Q1 and PMI readings remain expansionary — but growth is entering a more precarious phase where external shocks (trade policy, global demand) and capital outflows can quickly alter the path. A constructive baseline sees domestic demand, policy support and fiscal capex keeping growth robust; a downside scenario would combine weaker exports, persistent foreign outflows and policy passivity, which could tip the economy into a wider slowdown.
For investors and corporate decision-makers, the prudent course is to monitor the five signals above, prioritize balance-sheet resilience, and avoid over-exposure to highly export-dependent niches until clarity on global demand and capital flows returns. Policymakers can help by deploying targeted, timely measures to support credit and demand without undermining inflation anchors. The private sector’s ability to sustain growth will be tested in the coming months — and the balance between domestic engines and external shocks will determine whether the current expansion evolves into a durable upswing or a temporary burst.

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