Nomura Elevates Nifty Target: 17 Stocks to Watch!
Nomura has lifted its Nifty 50 target by 1,170 points, setting it at 24,370 for December 2025. This decision is attributed to a solid performance in earnings during Q4FY25 and positive trends across different sectors. Furthermore, the company has identified 17 leading stock picks that are expected to drive market growth in the future.
Summary:
Global brokerage firm Nomura has revised its Nifty 50 target for December 2025 from 23,200 to 24,370, reflecting optimism about India’s economic resilience and market strength despite modest downward earnings revisions. Backed by robust Q4FY25 corporate performance, Nomura also unveiled 17 preferred stock picks across financials, infrastructure, FMCG, and technology, positioning them as key beneficiaries of India’s structural growth story.
Nomura’s Bullish Recalibration Reflects Confidence in Indian Market Fundamentals
Japanese financial services major Nomura has revised its Nifty 50 target to 24,370, representing a 5% upside from current levels. This increase of 1,170 points from its previous forecast of 23,200 is based on the better-than-expected performance of Indian corporates in Q4FY25, despite overall earnings estimates for FY26 and FY27 seeing modest cuts. The strategic upgrade underlines India’s standing as one of the most attractive emerging markets globally, buoyed by structural economic reforms, resilient domestic demand, and favourable policy dynamics ahead of the 2025 Union Budget.
More Hits Than Misses in Q4FY25 Earnings Season
Nomura’s revised outlook follows a detailed post-earnings assessment. While consensus earnings estimates for FY26 and FY27 have been trimmed by 2.3% and 1.4%, respectively, analysts observed that more companies exceeded expectations than those that missed.
This trend was notably strong in financials, autos, and infrastructure, where operating leverage, margin expansion, and improving credit metrics played a role. Additionally, companies with domestic revenue drivers showed better resilience compared to export-oriented players hit by global demand softening.
Nomura highlighted that although the overall market earnings growth has slightly slowed down, the underlying earnings momentum is still strong. Quality growth stocks continue to perform well, which supports the upward revision of the Nifty forecast.
Sector-Wise Commentary: Financials, Infrastructure, and Consumption Lead
Nomura’s analysts remain positive on banking and financial services, particularly large-cap private banks, due to robust credit growth, improving net interest margins (NIMs), and declining NPAs. The capex cycle revival, both public and private, has further reinforced bullishness on infrastructure-linked plays.
The FMCG and consumption segments, despite cost pressures and rural demand weakness earlier in the year, have started seeing volume recovery, especially in Tier 2 and 3 towns. In addition, the technology sector, although currently dealing with a worldwide decrease in voluntary IT expenditures, is anticipated to find stability by the end of FY26, as projected by Nomura.
Nomura’s 17 Stock Picks: Key Drivers of the Next Market Rally
Nomura unveiled 17 top stock picks strategically curated to benefit from India’s structural economic momentum. These stocks cover various sectors, including financials, infrastructure, consumption, technology, and energy, showcasing a diverse investment in India’s multiple growth drivers. Below are some notable names from key industries:
Financials & BFSI:
ICICI Bank
State Bank of India (SBI)
HDFC Bank
Axis Bank
Infrastructure & Capital Goods:
Larsen & Toubro (L&T)
Siemens
Kalpataru Projects International
Consumer & FMCG:
Hindustan Unilever (HUL)
ITC
Trent Ltd
Technology:
Infosys
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS)
Auto & Ancillaries:
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M)
Maruti Suzuki
Energy & Utilities:
NTPC
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL)
Healthcare:
Cipla
Nomura believes these companies offer a mix of earnings stability, policy-driven tailwinds, and sectoral leadership, making them strong candidates to outperform in the next fiscal year.
Key Market Assumptions Behind Nifty Upgrade
Nomura’s revised Nifty target is premised on several key macroeconomic and market assumptions:
Stable Interest Rates: RBI is expected to maintain a balanced stance, ensuring liquidity support without aggressive tightening.
Capex Momentum: Sustained public capex and private sector investment pick-up, especially in roads, railways, and green energy.
Healthy Corporate Balance Sheets: Improved leverage ratios, lower financing costs, and better working capital management.
FPI Inflows: With global risk appetite improving, India is likely to see steady inflows from foreign investors, particularly into high-growth sectors.
Stable Political Environment: Post-election continuity in economic policy is anticipated, supporting investor confidence and reform continuation.
Risks to Outlook: Global Volatility, Inflation and Monsoon Dependence
While the overall outlook remains positive, Nomura cautioned about certain downside risks:
Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts or oil supply shocks could pressure India’s import bill and inflation.
Delayed Consumption Recovery: A prolonged rural slowdown or weak monsoon may impact discretionary demand and FMCG volumes.
Global Growth Uncertainty: Weakness in developed markets may affect export-heavy sectors, including IT and pharma.
Nonetheless, Nomura maintains that India remains “better positioned than peers” to navigate global volatility due to its robust domestic demand engine and strong policy framework.
Conclusion: Structural Bull Case for India Remains Strong
Nomura’s upgraded Nifty target and carefully selected stock picks reaffirm the brokerage’s long-term bullish view of India. Despite short-term earnings estimate reductions, the consistent earnings delivery by core sectors, resilient domestic macro fundamentals, and ongoing investment cycle provide a sturdy foundation for sustained market growth.
Investors are advised to focus on fundamentally strong, sector-leading companies with high return ratios, visibility on earnings, and proactive capital allocation policies. As India stands at the cusp of a potential multi-year growth phase, selectively participating in this rally could yield rewarding outcomes for long-term portfolios.
The image added is for representation purposes only
