OPEC Revises Oil Growth Forecast as Supply Slows
OPEC maintains demand outlook but sees smaller growth in oil supply from non-member producers amid shifting economic and geopolitical trends.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has made adjustments to its forecast for global oil growth, citing reduced contributions from non-member producers and persistent economic uncertainty. In its most recent monthly report, the group retained its oil demand outlook for 2025 but lowered projections for oil supply coming from producers outside of OPEC+.
According to OPEC’s June 2025 report, the organization anticipates oil demand to increase by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, consistent with previous estimates. However, the group has revised downward its expectations for oil production growth from non-OPEC+ countries, projecting growth of around 1.3 million bpd—slightly less than earlier figures.
Demand Still Healthy, But Signs of Caution
While the overall demand outlook remains steady, OPEC acknowledged some underlying risks to this forecast. Factors such as inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical instability could temper growth in energy consumption, particularly in developing economies. Nonetheless, demand from countries in Asia—especially India and China—is expected to support stable oil consumption in the medium term.
Additionally, recovery in air travel and transportation, particularly in emerging markets, is anticipated to continue driving global demand upward. Seasonal fuel consumption increases, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere during the summer months, are also expected to help sustain this demand momentum.
Non-OPEC Supply Growth Eases
The organization’s updated report reflects a slightly less optimistic view of oil production from countries outside of OPEC+. While nations such as the United States, Brazil, and Canada continue to contribute to global output, their production increases are showing signs of slowing.
This stagnation is largely due to capital discipline among shale operators and operational cost management, limiting rapid expansion.
In contrast, output from countries like Brazil and Guyana continues to climb but is not sufficient to offset the slowdown elsewhere.
Middle East Tensions Add Volatility
Geopolitical concerns also continue to play a key role in market sentiment. Tensions in the Middle East, especially involving Israel and Iran, have increased anxiety about the safety of major oil transport routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Although recent incidents have not caused major supply disruptions, any escalation could quickly affect market stability and pricing.
Crude prices have seen moderate fluctuations in response to these tensions. However, analysts suggest that unless there is a severe supply interruption, the impact will remain largely short-term.
OPEC’s Long-Term Position
The group emphasized the importance of maintaining flexible policies that can be adjusted in response to changing market dynamics. Continued collaboration between oil-producing nations is seen as critical to managing both supply and demand risks.
With demand projected to grow steadily and supply growth slowing from non-member nations, OPEC and its allies may gain more influence over global market balance. This could potentially position the group more favorably in managing output levels and supporting price stability.
Summary:
OPEC has kept its global oil demand outlook for 2025 unchanged at 2.25 million bpd but slightly reduced its forecast for supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers.While demand remains healthy, OPEC stresses the importance of flexibility and cooperation to navigate uncertain market conditions.
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