Reliance Industries Surges 18% YTD: Brokerages See More Upside Ahead
Strong performance in the retail and telecom segments, focused strategic restructuring, and solid financial health are fueling positive sentiment, with Bernstein, JP Morgan, and Jefferies forecasting additional upside for Reliance Industries in 2025.
Introduction
Reliance Industries has posted an impressive 18% year-to-date (YTD) gain in 2025, outpacing the Nifty 50 and attracting bullish forecasts from leading brokerages. Bernstein and JP Morgan have increased their target prices, while Jefferies maintains a bullish stance even after a minor downward revision.
The company’s performance is underpinned by strong growth in its retail and telecom arms, a focus on quality expansion, and improving cash flows. Analysts see further upside, with valuations still below historical averages and new growth drivers emerging.
Reliance’s 2025 Rally: A Closer Look
Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), India’s largest conglomerate, has captured market attention with an 18% rise in its share price so far in 2025. This performance not only outpaces the Nifty 50 benchmark but also marks a return to growth leadership among large-cap Indian stocks. The rally has been powered by a combination of operational excellence, strategic shifts, and renewed optimism from global and domestic investors.
Key Financial Highlights
• Q4 FY25 Revenue: ₹2.69 lakh crore, up 9.9% YoY
• Q4 FY25 Profit After Tax: ₹22,434 crore, up 6.1% YoY
• FY2025 Total Revenue: ₹9.98 lakh cr, which is up 7.3% YoY
• FY25 PAT: ₹80,787 crore, up 2.7% YoY
• Market Cap: ₹19.5 lakh crore (approx.)
• Dividend to be: ₹5.5 per share for FY2025
The company’s retail and digital services divisions now contribute over half of consolidated EBITDA, reflecting a successful diversification away from its traditional oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business.
Brokerages Turn Bullish: Target Price Upgrades
Bernstein: Growth Momentum and Attractive Valuations
Bernstein has upgraded its target price for Reliance to ₹1,640, implying a 15% upside from current levels. The brokerage highlights:
• Retail segment restructuring concluded with the closure of more than 2,100 low-performing stores in FY25, setting the stage for more sustainable, quality-focused expansion.
• Strengthening momentum in telecom, with anticipated ARPU (average revenue per user) hikes and accelerated rollout of Jio AirFiber and broadband services.
• Moderating capital expenditure and stable net debt, improving the company’s risk-reward profile.
• Reliance is presently valued at a 15% discount compared to its three-year average EV/EBITDA, enhancing its appeal given the company’s strong growth prospects.
JP Morgan: New Growth Cycle
JP Morgan has also increased its price target, highlighting the beginning of a “fresh growth phase” for Reliance. brokerage expects retail and telecom to account for nearly all net EBITDA growth over the next three years, with robust free cash flow generation even as the company invests in new energy, retail, and petrochemicals.
Jefferies: Positive Despite Minor Trim
Jefferies continues to rate the stock as a ‘Buy’, though it has marginally lowered its target price to ₹1,650 per share. The brokerage notes:
• Clear growth trajectory, particularly in retail—supported by rising same-store sales and the scaling of quick commerce—and in telecom, where Jio is expected to deliver an 18% revenue CAGR and 21% EBITDA CAGR between FY25 and FY27.
• A favorable pricing environment in telecom and a recovery in O2C margins, aided by global refinery closures and improving petchem spreads.
• A potential tenfold increase in free cash flows over the next two years, as capital expenditure moderates.
• The telecom sector, led by Jio, as the best vehicle to capture India’s consumption boom.
However, Jefferies also outlines downside risks, including lower-than-expected telecom ARPU, slower recovery in China affecting refining margins, or elevated cash burn in e-commerce ventures. Under its base case scenario, the brokerage continues to anticipate a 16% potential upside.
Strategic Shifts: Quality Over Quantity
A major driver of renewed optimism is Reliance’s strategic pivot from aggressive expansion to quality growth, especially in retail. After closing underperforming stores, the company is now focusing on profitable expansion and operational efficiency. In telecom, Jio continues to lead with network upgrades and new service launches, while the O2C segment is benefiting from favorable global supply-demand dynamics.
Reliance’s foray into new energy and quick commerce is also gaining traction, positioning the company for future growth in emerging sectors.
Market Sentiment and Analyst Consensus
Analyst sentiment remains strongly positive, with over 91% of analysts recommending a ‘Buy’ and an average target price around ₹1,564.74. Technical indicators also support a bullish outlook, with the stock forecasted to reach as high as ₹1,591.73 by the end of 2025.
Despite recent short-term volatility—attributable to global market jitters and profit booking—Reliance’s fundamentals remain robust. Its consistent profitability, leadership in key sectors, and strategic investments underpin its long-term appeal.
Conclusion
Reliance Industries’ 18% year-to-date rally in 2025 is driven by robust operational performance, strategic restructuring, and a resurgence in investor sentiment.
With major brokerages forecasting further upside, the company stands at the forefront of India’s consumption and technology-driven growth story. While risks remain, the balance of evidence suggests that Reliance’s disciplined approach to expansion, focus on high-growth segments, and improving financial metrics make it a compelling bet for the future.
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