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RBI's Revised Co-Lending Norms Set to Transform NBFC Growth
Banking, Economy, Market News - July 16, 2025

RBI's Strategic Liquidity Management: A ₹2 Trillion Operation Looms

RBI’s Strategic Liquidity Management: A ₹2 Trillion Operation Looms

In a liquidity management move watched closely by financial markets, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) conducted a two-day Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auction on July 9, accepting ₹97,315 crore from banks. This came just shy of the ₹1 trillion it had offered. Market participants believe the cautious bidding reflects expectations of a much larger liquidity absorption—possibly ₹2 trillion—on the horizon.

RBI Tightens Grip on Surplus Liquidity
The accepted bids cleared at a cut-off rate of 5.49%, slightly higher than the 5.47% seen in the previous seven-day VRRR held on July 4. This increase, though modest, suggests that banks are pricing in tighter liquidity going forward or preparing for another, much larger VRRR operation.
Traders and treasury dealers believe the higher rate points to growing uncertainty in the short-term money market. With expectations of a ₹2 trillion auction soon, many institutions held back from fully subscribing to the current round, choosing instead to wait and see how the RBI proceeds.

Liquidity Remains in Surplus—But Banks Tread Carefully
Even after the RBI’s significant withdrawal of funds via the VRRR mechanism, surplus liquidity remains abundant in India’s banking sector. As per RBI figures dated July 8, the system still held an excess of ₹3.07 trillion.
Still, the higher cut-off rate indicates that banks are becoming more cautious. There is still no clarity on where the RBI wants overnight rates to settle—whether close to the repo rate of 5.50% or somewhere between the repo and the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate of 5.25%.
A dealer from a state-owned bank noted:
“There is expectation of a ₹2-trillion VRRR announcement soon. It remains uncertain whether the RBI aims to anchor the overnight rate precisely at 5.50% or prefers it to fluctuate within the range bounded by the Standing Deposit Facility and the repo rate. This uncertainty is leading to cautious bidding and a higher cut-off.”

Short-Term Rates Show an Uptrend
The rising rates in the money market support this cautious outlook. Key short-term rates have moved upward recently:
• The Weighted Average Call Rate (WACR) increased to 5.34%, compared to around 5.26% a week ago.
The interest rate for Tri-party repos advanced to 5.29%, marking a rise from the previous benchmark of 5.13%.
This suggests that short-term money is becoming slightly more expensive, even with surplus liquidity still in the system.

A Look at Recent VRRR Activity
This auction is part of a series of regular VRRR operations the RBI has been conducting to manage surplus liquidity and guide short-term interest rates. Here’s a quick recap:
• On July 4, during a seven-day Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auction, the Reserve Bank of India attracted ₹1.7 trillion in total bids but chose to absorb only ₹1 trillion, setting the cut-off yield at 5.47%.
• On June 27, the Reserve Bank of India absorbed ₹84,975 crore from the banking system, with the average return rate settling at 5.45%.
• June 18: A similar pattern was observed, with selective acceptance at competitive rates.
These auctions show RBI’s consistent effort to sterilize excess liquidity and fine-tune monetary transmission.

Expectations Building for a ₹2 Trillion Operation
Speculation within financial circles suggests that the Reserve Bank may soon initiate a Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) operation worth ₹2 trillion, possibly within the near-term horizon. There are several reasons why a large liquidity absorption may soon be necessary:
• A recent reduction in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) has freed up nearly ₹2.5 trillion, effectively releasing that volume of funds into the banking system and enhancing overall liquidity.
• The Reserve Bank of India’s transfer of surplus funds to the government will, in due course, make their way back into circulation within the banking sector.
• Bond maturities and government spending: Both can temporarily elevate surplus liquidity.
Analysts predict that by October–November, the total liquidity surplus could grow to ₹5 trillion, making larger VRRR operations not just likely—but necessary.

Why VRRR Matters in Monetary Policy
1. Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auctions serve as essential instruments in the Reserve Bank of India’s strategy to regulate liquidity. By conducting these operations, the RBI draws surplus funds out of the banking sector, helping to maintain monetary balance.
2. Prevent oversupply of money, which can lead to lower short-term rates and weaken monetary policy transmission.
3. Stabilize overnight rates like WACR, keeping them aligned with the central bank’s policy stance.
4. Manage inflation expectations, since surplus liquidity can fuel asset bubbles or consumption spikes.
By actively managing liquidity through VRRR, the RBI reinforces the effectiveness of its repo and reverse repo corridor.

Banks Playing It Smart
Banks, for their part, are being strategic. Many chose not to deploy their entire surplus in the latest VRRR, likely keeping some buffer for potential rate volatility or the upcoming larger auction. The move to bid at higher rates suggests that banks are aiming to hedge risk rather than chase marginal returns.
Some analysts believe this “wait and watch” behavior will continue until the RBI provides greater clarity on its short-term liquidity roadmap—especially if more durable liquidity (like long-term money) continues to flood the system.

Looking Ahead
With inflation under control and growth momentum holding steady, the RBI is expected to maintain its current policy stance. However, the central bank’s liquidity operations—like the VRRR—will remain active and adaptive to market conditions.
A potential ₹2 trillion auction will be watched closely not just for the amount, but also for the tenor (7-day, 14-day, etc.) and the cut-off rate. These factors will offer deeper insight into RBI’s evolving liquidity strategy.

Conclusion
By taking in ₹97,315 crore through its most recent VRRR operation, the Reserve Bank of India has demonstrated a forward-looking stance in handling excess liquidity within the banking system. As anticipation builds around a potential ₹2 trillion liquidity operation, financial institutions are treading carefully—mindful of excess funds in the system while closely observing the Reserve Bank’s next strategic steps. In the weeks ahead, the central bank may adopt a more assertive stance to fine-tune the delicate balance between economic expansion, price stability, and overall financial system health.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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IREDA Bonds Gain Tax Benefits to Promote Green Energy

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IREDA Bonds Gain Tax Benefits to Promote Green Energy
Market News, Markets - July 10, 2025

Corporate Bond Issuances Set to Hit ₹11 Trillion in FY26 Amid Falling Rates and Delayed Bank Transmission

Corporate Bond Issuances Set to Hit ₹11 Trillion in FY26 Amid Falling Rates and Delayed Bank Transmission

India’s corporate debt market is poised for another record-breaking year in FY26, with bond issuances expected to exceed ₹11 trillion. This would mark a significant jump from ₹9.95 trillion raised in FY25 and signals a shift in preference toward market-based borrowing over traditional bank loans. With bond yields declining and banks slow to cut lending rates, companies are seizing the opportunity to raise funds at lower costs.

Key Drivers Behind the Surge in Bond Issuances

The surge in corporate bond issuance is largely driven by the divergence in rate transmission between the bond market and the banking system. After the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) initiated rate cuts, yields in the bond market responded swiftly. The 10-year government bond yield fell nearly 38 basis points from 6.70% to 6.32%, making it more attractive for corporates to raise funds through bonds.

In contrast, banks were slower to pass on the benefits of rate cuts. For instance, the one-year marginal cost of lending rate (MCLR) dropped by only 10 basis points during the same period, standing at 8.90%. This lag in rate transmission has widened the cost gap, making debt markets the preferred route for corporates seeking affordable capital.

Front-Loading of Borrowings

Another notable trend is the front-loading of bond issuances. During the first quarter of FY26, companies secured ₹2.79 trillion via 506 private placements—significantly surpassing the ₹1.56 trillion raised in the same quarter of FY25.This sharp increase shows that corporates are rushing to lock in lower rates before any possible reversal in monetary policy.

Companies still favour private placements as their primary method for raising debt. Companies prefer this route due to its flexibility, quicker turnaround, and reduced compliance compared to public issues. In FY25, only ₹19,000 crore was raised through public bond issuances, highlighting the overwhelming preference for private deals.

Who’s Borrowing and at What Rates?

The bulk of recent bond issuances have come from highly rated companies, especially those with AAA credit ratings. Firms like Bajaj Housing Finance and L&T Finance successfully raised funds in June with coupon rates ranging between 7.0% and 7.5%. These rates are considerably lower than those offered by banks for similar credit quality, reinforcing the shift towards bonds.

The investor base for corporate bonds is also expanding. Mutual funds, insurance companies, and pension funds are showing growing interest in these instruments due to the attractive yield spreads over government securities. This demand further supports the momentum in the primary bond market.

Market Size and Comparison with Global Peers

Despite the robust growth, India’s corporate bond market remains underdeveloped relative to other major economies. Currently, the market accounts for about 18% of the country’s GDP. In contrast, China’s corporate debt market represents roughly 36% of its GDP, and South Korea’s stands at nearly 80%.

The lack of a deep and active secondary market is one of the main reasons behind this gap. According to RBI data, the average secondary market turnover in corporate bonds is only about 3.8% of outstanding bonds. Low liquidity discourages retail participation and limits price discovery, posing a challenge to long-term market development.

Delayed Transmission in Bank Credit

While bond issuances have grown rapidly, bank credit to industries continues to lag. As of May 2025, year-on-year credit growth to the industrial sector stood at 4.8%—a modest figure compared to the spike in debt market activity. The slow adjustment in lending rates and tight credit assessment by banks have nudged corporates toward more efficient capital-raising options like bonds.

Forecasts and Outlook

Rating agencies and market participants expect this trend to continue. ICRA estimates that corporate bond issuances may total between ₹10.7 trillion and ₹11.3 trillion by FY26-end. Others believe that if the current momentum continues, the market could even surpass ₹12 trillion this fiscal year.

However, the pace may moderate in the second half of the year if the RBI decides to pause or reverse its rate-cutting cycle due to inflationary pressures or global uncertainties. Additionally, improving secondary market liquidity and increasing public issuances could further support the market’s depth and resilience.

Structural Reforms Still Needed

Despite strong momentum, several structural issues need to be addressed. These include improving transparency, easing public issuance norms, developing the secondary market, and encouraging wider investor participation. SEBI and RBI have taken steps in this direction, but consistent reforms are essential to build a deeper and more vibrant corporate bond ecosystem.

Conclusion

India’s corporate bond market is on track for another landmark year, fueled by favorable interest rate dynamics and increased reliance on private placements. As companies take advantage of lower yields and bypass sluggish bank lending, the debt market is evolving into a major funding channel. Yet, for sustainable growth, long-standing challenges like liquidity, access, and regulatory hurdles must be tackled head-on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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ICICI Bank Shares Slip as ICICI Prudential AMC Files for Landmark ₹10,000 Crore IPO

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IREDA Bonds Gain Tax Benefits to Promote Green Energy
Economy, Market News - July 8, 2025

Euro-Zone Bond Yields Rise as Markets Await US Tariff Decision

Euro-Zone Bond Yields Rise as Markets Await US Tariff Decision

As the global financial markets brace for potential trade policy shifts from the United States, euro-zone bond yields edged higher on Monday. Investors appear to be factoring in geopolitical uncertainty and the looming tariff deadline announced by former U.S. President Donald Trump. This cautious sentiment drove long-dated bond yields in the euro area slightly upwards, signaling the market’s alertness to the ripple effects of any impending protectionist measures.

Subtle Moves in European Yields Reflect Growing Caution

Germany’s 10-year bond yield registered a slight rise of 2 to 3 basis points, edging closer to the 2.60% level. Likewise, Italy’s 10-year bond yield climbed by approximately the same margin, closing in near the 3.50% mark. These upward shifts, though modest, reveal growing investor concern as the deadline for the U.S. administration’s tariff announcement approaches. While the yields remain within a historically stable range, the increase marks a reversal of the recent downward trajectory in euro-zone yields.

Shorter-term yields also nudged higher. The 2-year German Bund yield saw a slight uptick, indicating a re-evaluation of short-term interest rate expectations amid trade uncertainty and potential policy responses from central banks.

Trump’s Tariff Deadline and Global Implications

Former President Donald Trump had initially announced a July 9 deadline to outline fresh tariffs, which would reportedly take effect starting August 1. This announcement has set off ripples in global markets as investors await clarity on which nations may be targeted and which sectors could be affected.

A key concern is whether the European Union, Japan, or other major trading partners will be subject to new levies. While the official list of targeted countries is not yet confirmed, European nations are preparing for potential retaliation, should they be impacted. With less than a month before implementation, the uncertainty surrounding this policy move has become a major variable for bond investors and equity markets alike.

Why Bond Yields Are Reacting

Bond yields tend to rise when investors demand higher returns to compensate for increased risk or inflation expectations. In this case, the anticipated U.S. tariffs could trigger a chain of economic events—higher import prices, potential trade retaliation, slower global growth, or even inflationary pressures. Each of these factors has different implications for monetary policy in Europe.

If trade tensions escalate, the European Central Bank (ECB) might be forced to reconsider its already cautious approach to interest rate easing. While rate cuts remain on the table, especially as inflation across the eurozone continues to ease, any major supply-side shock from tariffs could shift the central bank’s priorities.

Market Strategists Weigh In

According to market analysts, the bond market’s reaction is driven more by anticipation than immediate economic data. While recent economic indicators from Europe—such as cooling inflation and mixed manufacturing signals—suggest a softer outlook, the bond market’s current moves are driven by geopolitical expectations rather than fundamentals.

“There’s nervousness in the market,” said a senior fixed income strategist. “Even if the tariffs don’t materialize or are milder than expected, the mere threat of them causes portfolio adjustments. Investors are playing defense by shifting duration and reducing exposure to more volatile assets.”

ECB’s Balancing Act

The ECB, which has already cut rates once in 2025, is now in a delicate position. It must weigh the need to support growth and inflation against the risk of triggering currency depreciation or capital flight if trade wars reignite. The uptick in eurozone bond yields introduces an additional layer of complexity to the economic landscape. On the one hand, they may signal confidence in the region’s economic stability; on the other, they could represent a risk premium tied to geopolitical instability.

Market pricing now reflects a reduced likelihood of further rate cuts in the immediate term, especially if inflation flares due to higher import costs resulting from tariffs.

What to Expect Next

As the July 9 deadline approaches, financial markets are likely to experience heightened volatility. Investors are closely monitoring statements from Washington and Brussels. Any indication of inclusion or exemption from the U.S. tariffs will likely lead to sharp movements in global equities, currencies, and bonds.

In the absence of clear guidance, euro-zone bond yields may continue their gradual upward trend. However, the pace of this movement will depend heavily on geopolitical developments and subsequent central bank responses.

Conclusion

The modest increase in euro-zone bond yields is a reflection of cautious sentiment as global markets brace for a potential shift in U.S. trade policy. As investors await more clarity from the White House on tariff implementation, European bond markets are showing signs of defensive positioning. The outcome of this geopolitical standoff could significantly influence future ECB decisions, investor risk appetite, and the broader trajectory of the European economy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Titan Company Rides High on Gold: Quarterly Revenue Soars Amid Price Surge

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Bitcoin Dips Below $77K, Ether Drops 6%!
Economy, Market News - June 23, 2025

Bitcoin Dips Below $77K, Ether Drops 6%!

Bitcoin Dips Below $77K, Ether Drops 6%!

Broader Risk-Off Sentiment Sparks Crypto Selloff as Investors Brace for Economic Uncertainty and U.S. Rate Jitters

Summary:
Bitcoin fell below the $77,000 threshold on Tuesday, extending its recent losses as global stock markets sold off sharply. Ether followed suit with a 6% decline, reflecting broader risk aversion among investors. Experts cite upcoming macroeconomic data, U.S. rate outlook, and overbought technicals as key reasons for the correction. However, strong buying support is expected around $73,000–$70,000 for Bitcoin, suggesting a possible short-term floor for the leading cryptocurrency.

Crypto Markets Crumble as Equities Weaken
In a sharp turn of sentiment, the cryptocurrency market slipped into the red early Tuesday, led by declines in Bitcoin and Ether. At 10:22 a.m. in Singapore, Bitcoin was trading at $79,477, having briefly breached the $77,000 mark. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell by 6%, sparking wider worries across the digital asset market.
This decline comes amid a global selloff in risk assets, with equity markets from Asia to Europe facing pressure from a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve, fragile economic data, and rising geopolitical risks. The correlation between crypto and traditional financial markets appears to be strengthening, particularly during periods of volatility.

Investor Caution Rises Ahead of U.S. Economic Data
Investors are becoming more cautious as the market prepares for important U.S. economic reports coming later this week, such as jobless claims, consumer spending figures, and an inflation report that many observers are paying close attention to. These data points are expected to offer more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s stance regarding interest rate cuts in 2025.
The uncertain rate outlook has put pressure on speculative assets like crypto. Higher yields make traditional assets more attractive, diminishing the appeal of non-yielding, volatile instruments like Bitcoin.
Hayden Hughes, head of crypto investments at family office Evergreen Growth, highlighted this sentiment by stating, “There will be strong buying at the $73,000 and $70,000 levels.” He believes those levels represent technical support zones that could trigger renewed accumulation.

Risk-Off Sentiment Intensifies as Bulls Retreat
The recent downtrend has caught several bullish traders off guard. Bitcoin had rallied strongly in early 2025, briefly touching all-time highs near $84,000, driven by strong ETF inflows, halving anticipation, and increasing institutional interest. However, the recent correction suggests the bull run may be cooling off, at least in the short term.
Technical analysts point out that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached overbought territory, suggesting that a pullback may be on the horizon. Given the broader economic challenges, the selloff seems to represent more of a consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal.

Ether Slides Sharply: Regulatory Uncertainty Lingers
While Bitcoin’s decline was relatively measured, Ether’s 6% drop reflects deeper concerns. The Ethereum ecosystem continues to face regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the U.S., where the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has yet to offer clear guidelines on Ethereum’s status.
Additionally, the slow uptake of Ethereum Layer-2 scaling solutions and delays in expected upgrades have dulled enthusiasm around Ether. Institutional interest remains primarily focused on Bitcoin, further widening the divergence between the two leading digital assets.

Altcoins, DeFi, and NFTs Follow Suit
The overall cryptocurrency market reflected the losses experienced by the leading coins. Key altcoins like Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), and Polkadot (DOT) all dropped 4–8%, while primary DeFi tokens, including Aave, Compound, and Uniswap, also saw red. The NFT sector continues to face liquidity issues and declining floor prices, further evidence of declining speculative interest.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrency has dropped below $2.9 trillion, declining by almost $100 billion in just 24 hours, as reported by CoinMarketCap. Trading volumes surged, indicating panic selling or aggressive rebalancing by traders and institutions alike.

What’s Next? A Recovery or Prolonged Consolidation?
Despite short-term weakness, most analysts remain optimistic about crypto’s long-term growth trajectory. Factors like Bitcoin ETF inflows, rising global inflation hedging, and blockchain innovation are expected to drive medium- to long-term adoption.
Short-term price action will largely depend on how markets digest macroeconomic data and Fed commentary over the coming weeks. If the Fed signals a pause or potential cuts by year-end, crypto could rebound strongly.
On the other hand, continued rate-tightening rhetoric or weak economic data could push Bitcoin closer to the $70,000 support area—possibly testing market conviction before another leg higher.

Expert Insights: Is This a Buying Opportunity?
While fear has returned to the market, some seasoned investors view the correction as a healthy pullback. According to Hughes, “This isn’t the end of the bull run—it’s a breather. Smart money will start accumulating at key technical levels.”
Long-term holders, also known as “HODLers,” continue to maintain their positions, with on-chain data showing minimal movement of older wallets, suggesting conviction remains strong among core believers.

Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin fell below $77K amid global stock market turmoil.
Ether dropped 6%, reflecting broader weakness across altcoins.
Investors await U.S. economic data that could influence rate policy.
Analysts anticipate that there will be buying interest in Bitcoin within the range of $70,000 to $73,000.
Market fluctuations might persist until there is greater clarity in the macroeconomic landscape.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Raymond Realty Sets Bold Growth Trajectory: Six Project Launches and Higher Targets for FY26

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IREDA Bonds Gain Tax Benefits to Promote Green Energy
Market News - June 21, 2025

India Bond Yields Steady, Traders Seek Direction

India Bond Yields Steady, Traders Seek Direction

As investors look for hints from inflation figures, actions by the RBI, and international bond markets, Indian bond yields continue to stay within a limited range while awaiting clear policies and global economic indicators.

Summary:
India’s sovereign bond yields remained largely unchanged amid cautious investor sentiment as traders awaited new directional cues from domestic inflation trends, upcoming Reserve Bank of India (RBI) moves, and global macroeconomic developments. Despite recent stability in crude oil prices and moderating inflation, market participants are reluctant to place aggressive bets, keeping the yield on benchmark 10-year bonds within a narrow range.

India Bond Yields Range-Bound as Market Awaits Fresh Catalysts
Indian government bond yields showed little movement on Thursday as investors maintained a cautious stance in the absence of potent domestic or global triggers. The benchmark 10-year bond yield — a key indicator of market sentiment — hovered around the 7.02% mark, reflecting a balanced interplay between easing inflation concerns and global uncertainties.
The muted movement comes after several sessions of volatility driven by expectations around the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decisions, crude oil fluctuations, and domestic monetary policy stances. With no immediate macroeconomic data releases on the horizon and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintaining a wait-and-watch approach, bond markets are expected to consolidate until clearer signals emerge.

Traders Await Inflation Prints and RBI Guidance
A key factor shaping market expectations is the trajectory of domestic inflation. India’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 4.75% in May, inching closer to the RBI’s medium-term target of 4%. This has provided some comfort to bond investors, who had earlier been cautious about inflation staying sticky in the 5%-6% range.
While this cooling in inflation supports a dovish stance from the RBI in the future, the central bank in its latest monetary policy review kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, citing the need for durable inflation moderation and a stable growth outlook. Traders are now closely watching upcoming CPI and WPI data for June, due next month, which will be instrumental in shaping expectations for any potential rate changes in the latter half of FY25.

Global Factors in Play: U.S. Yields and Crude Prices
India’s bond market continues to be influenced by global developments, particularly U.S. Treasury yields. The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield has remained elevated, limiting room for a sharp rally in Indian bonds. A hawkish tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve has kept investors on edge, even as hopes persist for a rate cut towards the end of 2024.
Additionally, international crude oil prices — a significant determinant of India’s current account and inflation dynamics — have remained stable in recent weeks. Brent crude was last seen trading around $82-84 per barrel. While this is not alarmingly high, any sharp upside could once again reignite fears of imported inflation, potentially pressuring Indian bond yields upward.

RBI’s Bond Management Strategy in Focus
Another aspect of keeping yields in check is the RBI’s active bond management operations. The central bank has been strategically conducting Open Market Operations (OMOs) and Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auctions to manage liquidity in the system.
Recent weeks have seen tight liquidity conditions due to advance tax outflows and GST payments. However, the RBI’s calibrated liquidity injections and its commitment to maintaining financial stability have reassured bond market participants.
Furthermore, with the central government expected to stick to its fiscal glide path — targeting a fiscal deficit of 5.1% of GDP in FY25 — concerns about excessive supply of government securities have abated to some extent.

Short-End vs Long-End: Yield Curve Movement
While the 10-year benchmark remains steady, some action is visible on the shorter end of the yield curve. Yields on 2-year and 5-year bonds have shown marginal downward movement as traders price in the possibility of a rate cut by early 2025, assuming inflation continues its downward trajectory.
The yield curve’s steepness is debated, with some investors expecting it to flatten if long-end yields drop due to a potential policy shift, while others believe uncertainties in global risk appetite and fiscal borrowing will keep longer-term yields stable.

Foreign Portfolio Investors Return Cautiously
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have also been showing renewed interest in Indian debt instruments, albeit cautiously. The inclusion of Indian government bonds in the JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Index starting June 2024 has opened up a fresh avenue for dollar inflows into the debt market.
So far in FY25, FPIs have poured over $3 billion into Indian debt, and this number is expected to grow steadily in the lead-up to full index inclusion by March 2025. However, the pace of inflows remains sensitive to the U.S. Fed’s rate trajectory and currency stability.

Market Outlook: Cautious Consolidation Ahead
Market analysts believe that Indian bond yields are likely to remain range-bound in the short term. The 10-year yield is expected to trade between 6.95% and 7.10%, barring any unforeseen economic shocks. Traders are likely to avoid building aggressive positions until fresh directional cues emerge from:
RBI’s next policy meeting in August
U.S. inflation and Fed commentary
Indian Q1 FY25 GDP and fiscal deficit numbers
Any meaningful breakout in yields — up or down — will likely depend on a combination of domestic inflation surprises, global bond market signals, and the pace of FPI flows.

Conclusion: Stability Amidst Uncertainty
India’s bond market, though currently exhibiting muted activity, is navigating a delicate equilibrium between domestic macro stability and global unpredictability. The stability in yields is a reflection of a broader wait-and-watch sentiment prevailing among investors as they seek clarity on inflation trends, policy actions, and external headwinds.
While the calm may seem uneventful, it is also a period of strategic positioning for market participants who are preparing for the next big move, whether triggered by data, central banks, or geopolitical shifts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Capillary Technologies Seeks ₹430 Crore IPO Boost

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India Boosts Monetary Policy with Improved Repo Rate Response
Economy - May 12, 2025

India Boosts Monetary Policy with Improved Repo Rate Response

India Boosts Monetary Policy with Improved Repo Rate Response

 

Due to the Reserve Bank of India’s regulatory and structural reforms, particularly in corporate lending, the transmission of repo rate changes to lending and deposit rates has significantly enhanced, thereby increasing the effectiveness of monetary policy.

Summary:

India’s monetary policy transmission has become notably more efficient recently, especially following the RBI’s changes in determining interest rates for corporate loans and retail sectors. This improved connection between the repo rate and lending rates for end users has enhanced the promptness and thoroughness of rate changes, enabling policy actions to impact borrowing costs, inflation, and consumer behavior more effectively. Economists consider this a significant advancement in the RBI’s efforts to enhance the effectiveness of its monetary tools.

India’s Monetary Policy Transmission: A Journey of Steady Improvement

India’s monetary policy transmission has become notably more efficient recently, especially following the RBI’s update to the methodology for determining interest rates in corporate and retail loan segments. This improved connection between the repo rate and end-user lending rates has led to more timely and comprehensive rate adjustments, enabling policy changes to have a greater impact on borrowing costs, inflation, and consumption trends. Economists consider this a significant achievement in the RBI’s efforts to enhance the effectiveness of its monetary tools.

Repo Rate: The Central Lever of Monetary Policy

The repo rate, the interest rate at which the RBI provides short-term loans to commercial banks, is a key tool for India’s monetary policy. Raising the repo rate makes borrowing more expensive, reduces credit demand, and controls inflation. Cutting the interest rate encourages people to borrow, invest, and spend more.
For this mechanism to work effectively, any shifts in the repo rate must be promptly reflected in the real economy, impacting both borrowers and savers. Historically, banks in India have been slow to adjust their lending and deposit rates, undermining the effectiveness of monetary policy actions.

Key Reforms Driving Better Transmission

The repo rate, which reflects the interest rate at which the RBI lends short-term funds to commercial banks, is a crucial instrument for India’s monetary policy. When the RBI raises the repo rate, borrowing costs increase, which lowers credit demand and helps control inflation. On the other hand, reducing the interest rate promotes borrowing, investment, and consumer expenditure.
For this approach to be successful, adjustments in the repo rate need to be effectively transmitted to the real economy, impacting both borrowers and savers. However, historically, Indian banks have been slow to change their lending and deposit rates, which diminishes the effectiveness of these monetary policy interventions.

Data Suggests Stronger Pass-Through

The repo rate is the interest rate at which the RBI provides short-term loans to commercial banks. It plays a vital role in shaping India’s monetary policy. An increase in the repo rate results in higher borrowing costs, reducing credit demand and helping to manage inflation. In contrast, when the repo rate is cut, it stimulates borrowing, investment, and consumer spending.
For this system to function effectively, changes in the repo rate must be accurately transmitted to the broader economy, affecting both borrowers and savers. However, Indian banks have traditionally been slow to adjust their lending and deposit rates, undermining the effectiveness of monetary policy measures.

Corporate Lending: A Notable Transformation

The repo rate, which represents the interest rate at which the RBI lends short-term funds to commercial banks, is a key component of India’s monetary policy. When the RBI raises the repo rate, borrowing costs increase, which helps control inflation by reducing credit demand. Conversely, lowering the rate encourages borrowing, investment, and consumer spending.
For this strategy to be effective, any changes to the repo rate must be quickly passed on to the broader economy, impacting borrowers and savers. However, Indian banks have often been slow to modify their lending and deposit rates, which limits the effectiveness of these monetary policy actions.

Benefits of Improved Transmission
1. Improved Inflation Management:
A more efficient transmission mechanism enables the RBI to achieve its inflation objectives more successfully. Changes in repo rates influence consumption, housing, and service pricing more swiftly, aiding in stabilizing core inflation.

2. Enhanced Credit Distribution:
Retail borrowers, MSMEs, and businesses can manage their finances more confidently with more predictable lending rates. Banks also face diminished benefits from interest rate risk.

3. IncreasedRBI’scy Credibility:
Improved transmission reinforces the credibility of the RBI’s policy signals, enhancing market trust and permitting more proactive interventions during economic challenges.

4. Synergy Between Monetary and Fiscal Policies:
More stable interest rates allow the government to align its fiscal strategies more effectively, improving overall macroeconomic coordination.

Remaining Challenges and the Road Ahead

Despite the progress made, several challenges persist. Public sector banks, which dominate the Indian banking landscape, still demonstrate slower responses in certain areas. Furthermore, legacy loan portfolios tied to MCLR or base rate systems weaken the transmission effect.
Additionally, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), which play a significant role in lending within rural and semi-urban regions, are not required to adhere to external benchmarks, limiting the transmission of benefits beyond the formal banking sector.
A sustained emphasis on digitization, financial inclusion, market development, and an increase in India’s use of mark-linked pricing will be essential for smoother transmission.

Conclusion: A Maturing Monetary Policy Framework

India’s enhanced transmission of repo rate adjustments illustrates its monetary policy framework’s development and efficacy. The movement towards lending linked to external benchmarks, particularly in the retail and corporate sectors, has strengthened the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) capacity to shape credit conditions, manage inflation, and promote economic growth. India remains room for improvement—particularly in legacy lending and non-bank sectors—but the overall trend is encouraging. As global economic uncertainties continue and inflation management becomes increasingly complex, India’s improved policy transmission will be crucial for maintaining macroeconomic stability.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The image added is for representation purposes only

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BOE Lowers Interest Rates to 4.25% as U.S. Tariffs Weigh on Economy
Economy - May 10, 2025

BOE Lowers Interest Rates to 4.25% as U.S. Tariffs Weigh on Economy

BOE Lowers Interest Rates to 4.25% as U.S. Tariffs Weigh on Economy

 

In response to the economic fallout from U.S. tariffs and global uncertainties, the Bank of England reduces rates to boost the UK economy.

Introduction

In a surprising move, the Bank of England (BoE) has lowered its key interest rate to 4.25%, signaling its readiness to adjust monetary policy in response to growing economic pressures. This decision, made in May 2025, comes amid rising concerns about the economic impact of U.S. tariffs, which are predicted to strain both domestic growth and international trade relations.
This rate cut represents a significant shift in the central bank’s policy stance, as it seeks to mitigate the impact of external economic factors, including global trade disputes, on the UK economy. While the decision was not unanimous, it underscores the BoE’s commitment to supporting growth during a time of heightened economic uncertainty.

Economic Pressures from U.S. Tariffs

The primary factor influencing the Bank of England’s decision to lower interest rates is the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and several countries, including the UK. U.S. tariffs, particularly those imposed on steel, aluminum, and automotive goods, have had a ripple effect across global markets, increasing costs for businesses and disrupting supply chains.
The effects of these tariffs are anticipated to be especially significant for sectors dependent on international commerce and imported goods. British enterprises, in particular, are grappling with escalating manufacturing expenses, which are ultimately being transferred to consumers through increased prices. This, in turn, is contributing to inflationary pressures in the UK, complicating the central bank’s efforts to stabilize the economy.
The BoE’s rate cut is aimed at alleviating some of the economic strain, encouraging borrowing and investment in sectors most affected by the tariffs. Reducing interest rates typically lowers the cost of borrowing, which can encourage business investment and consumer spending, helping to counterbalance some of the adverse impacts of the tariffs.

Diverging Opinions Among Policymakers

The interest rate cut did not receive unanimous support, as the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was split—some members pushed for a deeper reduction to boost economic activity, while others preferred a more restrained strategy.
In the end, a 5-4 vote resulted in the 4.25% rate, marking a significant divergence of opinions within the committee.
The division within the MPC highlights contrasting perspectives on the most effective way to steer the economy amid external pressures.
Some members argue that a more aggressive stance is needed to buffer the UK against global economic headwinds, while others are concerned about the potential long-term Consequences of a swift rate cut, including rising inflation and the potential for asset bubbles.

Managing Inflation and Economic Growth

The BoE’s rate cut is part of its broader effort to balance two critical economic goals: managing inflation while encouraging growth. Inflation in the UK has been persistently high, driven in part by increased energy costs and global supply chain disruptions. However, with growth slowing and economic activity showing signs of stagnation, the central bank has had to make difficult decisions.
The BoE’s decision is a clear attempt to address these competing pressures by making borrowing more affordable, thus supporting economic activity in sectors that are underperforming. However, economists are divided on whether this will be enough to offset the negative effects of tariffs and global uncertainty, particularly with inflation remaining a key concern.

The Outlook for the UK Economy

Despite the interest rate cut, the UK economy remains under significant strain. Ongoing trade disputes, especially the repercussions of U.S. tariffs, are likely to continue creating difficulties for companies and consumers alike. The Bank of England’s ability to stimulate growth through monetary policy alone is limited, especially as the broader global economy faces uncertainty.
The outlook for the UK economy will depend heavily on how external factors, such as tariffs, evolve in the coming months. If the U.S. tariffs remain in place or escalate further, the UK could face continued pressure on its trade relationships, further limiting its economic growth potential.
However, the rate cut could provide some relief in the short term, particularly for industries facing higher borrowing costs and reduced investment. As the BoE continues to monitor the situation, future rate adjustments may be necessary to address ongoing challenges.

Conclusion

The Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates to 4.25% in May 2025 marks a significant response to global economic challenges, including the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the UK economy. While the decision was not unanimous, it highlights the central bank’s commitment to supporting economic stability through proactive monetary policy. As the UK navigates this period of uncertainty, the BoE will likely continue to adjust its policies to ensure long-term growth and manage inflation pressures.
In the face of global trade tensions and inflation concerns, the UK’s economic trajectory will depend on both domestic policy decisions and international developments, with the BoE’s rate cut serving as an essential instrument for maintaining this fragile equilibrium.

 

 

 

 

 

The image added is for representation purposes only

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