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Central Banks Accelerate Shift to Gold, Euro, and Yuan as Dollar Dominance Fades

Central Banks Accelerate Shift to Gold, Euro, and Yuan as Dollar Dominance Fades

A historic pivot in global reserve management is underway as central banks worldwide ramp up gold buying and diversify into the euro and Chinese yuan, signaling waning confidence in the U.S. dollar.

Summary
Central banks across the globe are dramatically increasing their gold reserves and exploring greater allocations to the euro and yuan. This strategic shift, driven by geopolitical instability and concerns about the long-term dominance of the U.S. dollar, is reshaping the architecture of international reserves and could have far-reaching implications for global finance.

Introduction
The USD has long maintained its status as the leading reserve currency worldwide. But a major transformation is now in motion. Recent surveys and data reveal that central banks are not only accelerating their gold purchases but are also looking to diversify their reserves with more exposure to the euro and China’s renminbi (yuan). This trend reflects a growing desire to mitigate risks associated with dollar concentration amid rising geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and shifting global trade dynamics.

Record Gold Buying: The New Reserve Strategy
Unprecedented Pace of Accumulation
Central banks have added more than 1,000 tonnes of gold annually for three consecutive years, more than double the average annual purchase of 400–500 tonnes seen in the previous decade. According to the World Gold Council’s 2025 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, this aggressive accumulation is a direct response to mounting global uncertainty and the need for assets that perform well during crises.
Survey Highlights
• An all-time high of 95% of central banks surveyed anticipate an increase in global gold reserves over the coming year, compared to 81% in the previous year.
• 43% of respondents plan to increase their own gold reserves in the coming 12 months, the highest reading ever recorded.
• Not a single central bank surveyed anticipates reducing its gold holdings in the near term.

Why Gold?
Gold’s appeal lies in its historical role as a crisis hedge, its effectiveness in portfolio diversification, and its ability to counteract inflation. The asset’s performance during recent global crises has only reinforced its strategic value for monetary authorities.

The Dollar’s Waning Grip
Declining Dollar Allocations
Nearly three-quarters of central banks now expect their dollar holdings to decrease over the next five years, a significant jump from 62% last year. This marks a clear trend toward de-dollarisation as policymakers seek to reduce exposure to U.S. fiscal and political risks.
Geopolitical and Economic Drivers
• The aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions have heightened awareness of the vulnerabilities associated with holding dollar-denominated assets.
• Trade protectionism, rising U.S. debt, and concerns over future policy unpredictability are also prompting reserve managers to look for alternatives.

Diversification: Euro and Yuan Gain Favor
Euro’s Steady Appeal
The euro remains the second-most preferred reserve currency. Central banks see it as a stable, liquid alternative, especially as the European Union continues to strengthen its financial infrastructure.
Yuan’s Rising Profile
The Chinese yuan is steadily gaining ground in global reserves. While still a small share compared to the dollar and euro, its inclusion in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket and China’s growing influence in global trade are making it increasingly attractive for central banks looking to diversify.

Risk Management and Strategic Allocation
Active Reserve Management on the Rise
The share of central banks actively adjusting their gold holdings rose from 37% in 2024 to 44% in 2025. While boosting returns remains a key objective, risk management—particularly in the face of geopolitical shocks—has become a primary motivator.
Domestic Gold Storage Trends
Another notable shift is the increasing preference for storing gold domestically. The share of central banks choosing domestic storage rose from 41% in 2024 to 59% in 2025, reflecting a desire for greater control and security.

Implications for Global Markets
Gold Price Outlook
With central banks expected to continue their buying spree, the outlook for gold prices remains robust. The metal’s recent surge to record highs underscores its enduring appeal amid uncertainty.
Currency Market Dynamics
As allocations to the euro and yuan rise, their roles in international trade and finance are likely to strengthen, potentially reducing the dollar’s influence over time.
A New Era of Reserve Management
The ongoing diversification marks a fundamental shift in how central banks approach reserve management, with implications for global liquidity, exchange rate stability, and the future of international monetary relations.

Conclusion
Central banks are signaling a decisive move away from overreliance on the U.S. dollar, embracing gold and, increasingly, the euro and yuan as pillars of their reserve strategies. This transformation, driven by a complex web of geopolitical, economic, and financial factors, is setting the stage for a more multipolar global reserve system. As this trend accelerates, the world’s monetary landscape will continue to evolve, with gold at the center of this new era of diversification.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Forex Reserves Hit $698.95 Billion: Key Factors Behind India’s Surge

Forex Reserves Hit $698.95 Billion: Key Factors Behind India’s Surge

Forex Reserves Hit $698.95 Billion: Key Factors Behind India’s Surge

A robust rise in foreign currency assets and gold holdings pushes India’s reserves near record highs, signaling strength and resilience in the external sector.

Introduction
As of June 13, 2025, India’s foreign exchange holdings grew by $2.29 billion to stand at $698.95 billion. This marks the second consecutive weekly gain and brings reserves close to their all-time high. The surge is driven by strong foreign currency assets, higher gold reserves, and continued global investor confidence, reinforcing India’s ability to weather external shocks and maintain economic stability.

The Latest Numbers: Breaking Down the Surge
During the week ending June 13, 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recorded a $2.29 billion rise in foreign exchange reserves, building on a stronger $5.17 billion surge reported the week before. This brings the total reserves to $698.95 billion, just shy of the record $704.885 billion set in September 2024.
Key Components of the Reserve Growth
• Foreign Currency Assets:
The largest portion of India’s reserves, these assets rose by $1.739 billion to $589.426 billion. The value reflects not only dollar holdings but also assets denominated in euros, yen, and pounds, whose appreciation contributed to the overall increase.
• Gold Reserves:
India’s gold holdings added $428 million, now totaling $86.316 billion. Gold continues to serve as a strategic buffer, especially in times of global uncertainty.
• Special Drawing Rights (SDRs):
SDRs, an international reserve asset created by the IMF, rose by $85 million to $18.756 billion.
• IMF Reserve Position:
India’s position with the IMF increased by $43 million, now at $4.452 billion, reflecting enhanced financial standing in the international community.

Why Are Forex Reserves Rising?
Strong Foreign Inflows
The sustained increase is largely attributed to continued foreign investment inflows, both in equity and debt markets. India’s robust economic growth, stable macroeconomic indicators, and improving corporate balance sheets have made it an attractive destination for global investors.
Stable External Environment
Despite ongoing global uncertainties, India’s external sector has shown remarkable stability. The RBI’s prudent management of the rupee and timely interventions in the forex market have helped prevent excessive volatility, supporting the steady build-up of reserves.
Gold’s Strategic Role
Rising gold reserves underscore India’s commitment to diversifying its reserve portfolio. Gold acts as a hedge against currency fluctuations and global economic shocks, providing additional security to the country’s financial system.

Economic Implications
Import Cover and Debt Security
With reserves now sufficient to cover more than 11 months of imports and about 96% of outstanding external debt, India’s position as a resilient economy is reinforced. This buffer is crucial for managing trade imbalances and shielding the economy from sudden capital outflows or external shocks.
Confidence in the Rupee
A strong reserve buffer provides the RBI with enhanced ability to manage currency market fluctuations, aiding in rupee stabilization during turbulent periods. This contributes to bolstering investor trust and ensuring stability in financial markets.
Support for Policy Initiatives
High reserves provide the government and central bank with the headroom needed to pursue growth-oriented policies without the immediate fear of external financing pressures. This is particularly important as India continues to invest in infrastructure, technology, and social welfare programs.

Nearing Record Highs: What’s Next?
India’s foreign exchange reserves have risen by almost $7.5 billion over the past two weeks, bringing them within reach of their record peak. Analysts expect that, barring unforeseen global disruptions, reserves could soon surpass the previous record, further strengthening India’s economic foundation.

RBI’s Perspective
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra recently highlighted the resilience of India’s external sector, noting that key vulnerability indicators have improved steadily. He expressed confidence in the country’s ability to meet all external financing requirements, emphasizing that the current reserve build-up is a testament to the strength of India’s fundamentals4.

Conclusion
India’s rising forex reserves are more than just a statistical achievement—they are a reflection of the country’s economic resilience, prudent policymaking, and growing global stature. As reserves approach record levels, India is better equipped than ever to navigate global uncertainties, support the rupee, and maintain investor confidence. The outlook remains positive, with the nation well-positioned to sustain its growth momentum and safeguard its economic interests.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Central Banks Shift: Dollar's Global Reserves Decline

Central Banks Shift: Dollar's Global Reserves Decline

Central Banks Shift: Dollar’s Global Reserves Decline

 

Central banks worldwide are gradually reducing their reliance on the US dollar for foreign exchange reserves, marking a significant shift in the global financial landscape.

Summary:

The US dollar’s dominance in global foreign exchange reserves diminishes as central banks diversify their holdings to reduce revaluation losses and improve portfolio stability. Although the dollar continues to account for most global reserves, its share has steadily decreased over the last twenty years. Analysts point to factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, the emergence of alternative currencies like the Chinese yuan, and changes in global trade patterns as key reasons for this shift.

Global Reserve Composition Undergoes a Subtle Shift

Historically regarded as the cornerstone of international financial stability, the dollar is slowly losing its grip on global foreign exchange reserves. Recent data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reveals that the US dollar’s share of global forex reserves has decreased to around 58%, down from more than 70% at the start of the millennium.
While it remains the primary global reserve currency, this gradual decline suggests that central banks are becoming more cautious about relying on a single currency. There’s a precise movement towards diversifying their portfolios to enhance returns and protect against monetary and geopolitical risks.
Economists point to several factors behind this trend: ongoing US inflation, the dollar’s use in sanctions, concerns about revaluation with shifting interest rates, and the emergence of regional currencies offering alternative trade solutions.

Central Banks Rethinking Dollar Dependency

The evolving strategies of global central banks indicate a notable shift in how they manage their reserves. Instead of predominantly investing in US Treasury securities or dollar-based assets, monetary authorities opt for a more diversified approach that includes gold, the euro, the Chinese yuan (renminbi), and various regional currencies.
Dr. Nandini Bhattacharya, an economist from a prominent global financial think tank, states, “While the dollar remains essential for international trade and finance, relying too heavily on a single currency is increasingly recognized as a structural risk. Diversifying helps to reduce potential losses from currency revaluation and preserves purchasing power during market volatility.”
Countries like Russia, China, India, Brazil, and some ASEAN nations have reduced their dollar holdings, shifting reserves to currencies that align more closely with their trade and strategic needs.

Geopolitical Tensions Accelerating the Shift

The dollar’s strategic deployment in geopolitics serves as a significant driver of this ongoing trend. The implementation of US-led economic sanctions, particularly aimed at nations such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, has led many countries to reconsider their reserve strategies.
For example, Russia has dramatically reduced its dollar reserves following the 2014 Crimea crisis and the ensuing sanctions. By 2021, only 16% of its reserves were in dollars, down from over 40% a decade earlier. Similarly, China has been decreasing its holdings of US treasuries, which were valued at $868 billion in early 2024, a decline from more than $1.3 trillion in 2013.
Neutral economies are concerned that distancing from Western alliances may prompt financial retaliation tied to the dollar, leading to increased demand for “politically neutral” reserve assets like gold and the Swiss franc.

Rise of the Renminbi and Other Currencies

Although the Chinese yuan (CNY) is a relatively minor player in global reserves, its presence in central bank allocations has steadily increased. According to the IMF’s COFER (Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves) data, the yuan made up nearly 3% of global reserves in 2023, a rise from just 1% in 2016.
China’s expanding trade influence and efforts to internationalize the yuan, primarily through Belt and Road Initiative projects and energy transactions, indicate it may become a complementary reserve asset.
The euro, yen, franc, and pound are top alternatives to the US dollar, but none can fully replace it due to a lack of infrastructure. However, together with gold and regional currencies, they offer a diversified defense against risks.

Gold Reclaims Its Luster in Reserve Portfolios

A notable trend is the revival of gold in foreign exchange reserves. Given the climate of fluctuating interest rates, concerns over currency devaluation, and inflationary challenges, gold has become a sought-after safe-haven asset. Central banks, particularly in emerging nations such as India, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Thailand, have recently increased their gold purchases.
According to the World Gold Council, central bank demand for gold hit unprecedented levels in 2023, with more than 1,100 tonnes added to global reserves. This indicates a diminishing trust in fiat currencies amid uncertain conditions.

Challenges to a Post-Dollar World

Analysts advise prudence before hastily concluding that the dollar’s supremacy is waning, despite prevailing market trends. The dollar still plays a central role in SWIFT transactions, global trade invoicing, and international debt issuance. Its unique ability to provide liquidity, stability, and convertibility remains unparalleled.
For any currency to effectively challenge the dollar, it would require robust, accessible financial markets, solid legal frameworks, and complete capital account convertibility—conditions even the euro and yuan do not fully possess.
The global financial landscape is shifting from a unipolar to a multipolar reserve system, with the gradual decline of the dollar impacting monetary independence, trade, and geopolitical relationships.

Conclusion: Slow Transition, Lasting Impact

The slight decrease in the dollar’s dominance in global foreign exchange reserves indicates a significant change in the international financial landscape. As central banks aim to protect themselves from external disruptions, political instability, and currency fluctuations, we may move toward an era characterized by diverse reserve currencies.
The shift indicates a growing awareness of the risks of overreliance on the dollar, driving nations towards currency diversification as a key part of their financial strategies in a multipolar world.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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