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Can India’s Private Sector Growth Sustain Itself Amid Cooling Momentum?
Economy, Market News, Markets - September 30, 2025

Can India’s Private Sector Growth Sustain Itself Amid Cooling Momentum?

Can India’s Private Sector Growth Sustain Itself Amid Cooling Momentum?

India’s private sector entered the autumn of 2025 on a high—then showed signs of moderation. Flash PMI data released in late September recorded a slowdown from August’s multi-year highs: the S&P Global/HSBC composite PMI slipped to 61.9 in September from 63.2 in August, with manufacturing at 58.5 and services at 61.6. While these readings still indicate robust expansion, the moderation is meaningful because it follows exceptionally strong momentum earlier in the summer and coincides with increased external headwinds.

Where the cooling shows up: sectors and indicators
The moderation is broad-based rather than concentrated. Manufacturing’s PMI fell from its more euphoric August print—after a run that saw factory growth hit a 17-year high—suggesting a normalization in new orders and production. Services, though still expanding strongly, recorded slower demand growth and a softening in job creation. Survey respondents cited weaker international orders and heightened competition as key constraints, which dented confidence among exporters and service providers that rely on cross-border demand. Employment gains weakened; firms reported smaller increases in hiring compared with August, which is notable for an economy that depends on sustained private-sector job creation to translate growth into inclusive outcomes.

Macro context: strong growth, but rising external vulnerabilities
At the macro level, India’s headline growth remains solid. Official projections and government releases pointed to a strong start to FY 2025–26, with real GDP expanding by 7.8% in Q1 (released August 30, 2025) compared with a year earlier—evidence that the domestic economy retains considerable underlying strength. Yet this vigor exists alongside mounting external pressures. Portfolio flows turned negative in recent weeks: foreign investors had net sold about $1.3 billion of Indian equities through September 25, 2025, and August saw sizeable FPI outflows from Indian financials (roughly ₹232.9 billion, or about $2.7 billion sold from financial stocks in August). The rupee also tested weaker levels, prompting occasional market intervention. These capital-flow dynamics can blunt private-sector momentum by tightening local financial conditions and raising funding costs for corporates.

Which segments are weakening — and which are holding up
Export-oriented manufacturing and some business services have shown the earliest signs of strain because of softer overseas demand and new tariff frictions affecting global trade. Sectors with larger export exposure reported weaker new orders and tougher pricing environments. By contrast, domestic-facing sectors—construction, FMCG, certain parts of retail and organised consumption—continue to benefit from festival-season demand and easing domestic inflation trends. Financials and infrastructure-linked industries are mixed: credit demand is improving in pockets, but foreign selling and investor caution have amplified volatility in financial stocks. Overall, the pattern is one of decelerating export momentum while domestic demand remains a key plank sustaining activity.

Policy levers: what authorities can and are likely to do
Policymakers have tools to shore up private-sector momentum. The Reserve Bank of India’s immediate stance—markets expected the RBI to hold the repo at 5.50% at its early-October meeting, though a surprise cut was discussed by some economists—reflects a willingness to be data-driven and respond if growth weakens or global conditions warrant easing. Targeted liquidity support, calibrated cuts to policy rates, or regulatory nudges to ease credit to MSMEs and exporters are plausible near-term measures to sustain growth without stoking inflation. On the fiscal side, the government can deploy demand support via capex acceleration, sector-specific relief for export-linked industries, and tax measures timed around festive consumption to keep domestic demand buoyant. The effectiveness of these levers will depend on timely calibration and the persistence of external shocks.

Investor signals to watch
For investors and market observers, five indicators will be especially informative in judging sustainability:
* Final PMI releases (early October 2025) — confirmation that the flash PMI’s moderation is a temporary wobble or a deeper softening.
* Monthly FPI flow data — continued net outflows would tighten financial conditions and raise risk premia for private corporates.
* Rupee movement and central bank intervention — sharp depreciation can raise imported input costs and squeeze margins.
* Corporate earnings guidance for Q2 2025–26 — early warning if demand softening is translating quickly into revenue/ margin pressure.
* Credit off-take and bank lending rates — signs that credit availability is loosening or tightening materially, particularly for MSMEs and capex loans.

Practical implications and conclusion
India’s private sector is not collapsing — the economy had a strong Q1 and PMI readings remain expansionary — but growth is entering a more precarious phase where external shocks (trade policy, global demand) and capital outflows can quickly alter the path. A constructive baseline sees domestic demand, policy support and fiscal capex keeping growth robust; a downside scenario would combine weaker exports, persistent foreign outflows and policy passivity, which could tip the economy into a wider slowdown.
For investors and corporate decision-makers, the prudent course is to monitor the five signals above, prioritize balance-sheet resilience, and avoid over-exposure to highly export-dependent niches until clarity on global demand and capital flows returns. Policymakers can help by deploying targeted, timely measures to support credit and demand without undermining inflation anchors. The private sector’s ability to sustain growth will be tested in the coming months — and the balance between domestic engines and external shocks will determine whether the current expansion evolves into a durable upswing or a temporary burst.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The image added is for representation purposes only

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Talbros Automotive Components Accelerates to New Highs on ₹580 Crore Order Win
Market News - June 12, 2025

Talbros Automotive Components Accelerates to New Highs on ₹580 Crore Order Win

Talbros Automotive Components Accelerates to New Highs on ₹580 Crore Order Win

Surging stock price, robust export orders, and a strategic push into the EV segment mark a transformative phase for the auto components manufacturer

Talbros Automotive Components: An Overview
Talbros Automotive Components, a prominent player in the Indian auto components industry, is renowned for supplying a wide range of products such as gaskets, heat shields, forging components, chassis systems, and hoses. Over the years, the company has established itself as a trusted partner for leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), both in India and abroad.
The company operates through several joint ventures, which have played a pivotal role in expanding its technological capabilities and market reach. Built on a strong foundation of innovation and excellence, Talbros has continually evolved with industry trends, establishing itself as a progressive player in the dynamic automotive components space.

The ₹580 Crore Order Win: Breaking Down the Details
The latest milestone for Talbros comes in the form of multi-year contracts worth ₹580 crore, secured by the company and its joint ventures. Orders include a diverse mix of offerings like gaskets, insulation shields, forging elements, structural parts, and tubing. Notably, a significant portion of these contracts is dedicated to the electric vehicle segment, reflecting the company’s strategic alignment with the global shift towards sustainable mobility.
Of the total order value, approximately ₹260 crore is attributed directly to Talbros’s core business, with a substantial share earmarked for exports, primarily to European markets. The company’s joint venture, Marelli Talbros Chassis Systems, is responsible for a further ₹290 crore in orders, with about half of this amount tied to EV-related components. Orders for hoses and anti-vibration parts are expected to enter commercial production in the second half of the next fiscal year.
This diversified order book not only enhances revenue visibility for the coming years but also underscores Talbros’s ability to cater to evolving customer needs across geographies and vehicle segments.

Stock Market Reaction: A Five-Month High
The announcement of the ₹580 crore order win triggered a sharp rally in Talbros Automotive Components’ share price, which surged over 8% in intraday trading. This upward momentum pushed the stock to its highest level in five months, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the company’s growth prospects.
According to analysts, multiple factors have contributed to this upswing.:
• The scale and diversity of the new orders, which span both traditional and emerging automotive technologies.
• The growing contribution of the EV segment, which is expected to drive future growth.
• The company’s expanding footprint in export markets, particularly Europe, known for its rigorous quality and sustainability standards.
With these developments, Talbros has strengthened its reputation as a multibagger stock, having delivered substantial returns to shareholders over the past five years.

Strategic Focus: Electric Vehicles and Exports
A defining feature of the recent order win is the company’s increasing focus on electric vehicles and international markets. Approximately 50% of the chassis system orders from the joint venture are destined for the EV segment, underscoring Talbros’s proactive approach to capitalizing on the global transition to electric mobility.
The company’s export strategy is equally noteworthy. With around ₹150 crore of the new orders allocated for exports—mainly to Europe—Talbros is leveraging its technological expertise and quality standards to tap into markets with high entry barriers. This not only diversifies its revenue streams but also positions the company as a key supplier to some of the world’s most demanding automotive markets.

Operational Impact and Future Outlook
The new contracts are expected to be executed over a period of five years, providing long-term revenue visibility and operational stability. The orders for hoses and anti-vibration components, set to commence commercial production in the latter half of the next fiscal year, will further bolster the company’s product portfolio and market presence.
Talbros’s ability to secure large, multi-year contracts across a range of product lines demonstrates its manufacturing prowess and customer-centric approach. The company’s investments in innovation, quality, and partnerships have enabled it to stay ahead of industry trends, particularly in the fast-growing EV segment.
Talbros stands to gain from the continued evolution of the global automotive landscape. Its focus on high-growth areas such as electric vehicles, coupled with a strong export orientation, is likely to drive sustained growth and value creation for shareholders.

Conclusion
The ₹580 crore contract secured by Talbros Automotive Components signifies a key achievement in its expansion efforts. The surge in share price, fueled by robust demand from both domestic and international markets, highlights the company’s strategic agility and operational excellence. As the automotive industry continues to evolve, Talbros’s focus on electric vehicles and exports positions it as a frontrunner in the next phase of industry growth. Investors and industry observers will be keenly watching the company’s next moves as it accelerates towards a dynamic and sustainable future.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The image added is for representation purposes only

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Business, Economy - May 17, 2020

Goods exports decline in April

Goods exports decline in April

India’s export is reduced by 60.28 percent in the month of April, due to the lock down imposed by the government which is equivalent to $10.36 billion. However, in March country’s export was declined by 34.57 percent. On the other side, the country’s import is also affected. There was a 58.65 percent  decline in imports in April which amounted to $17.12 billion. However, India’s Imports have decreased by 28.72 percent from previous year making it $31.16 billion in March 2020. This is the lowest percent that India has seen since August of 2016. Overall trade deficit in April is $6.76 billion which was $15.33 billion in April 2019. This year’s trade deficit is lowest since May 2016 which was $6.27 billion.

 

Sector and commodities wise:

There is decline in 30 major import sectors such as gold, silver, coal, fertilizer, machinery, transport equipment and machinery. All these sector have reported negative growth in the month of April. Since the first day of the countrywide lock down, oil imports have seen a drop by 15 percent and non-oil purchases dropped to 33.78 percent. Imports of electronic items have dipped down by 29.09 percent. Lastly gold have plunged by 62.64 percent in March. In April, non-oil imports is reduced by 58.5 percent to $12.46 billion and Gold imports stood at $2.83 million which was $4 billion last year. However, other Oil imports was at $4.66 billion, which is 59.03 percent lesser than last year for the same period.

Commodities wise, export of rice declined by 28.28 percent, cereals export saw decline by 33.42%, tea exports fell by 33.74 percent, organic and inorganic material export reduced by 32.88 percent, ready-made garments fell by 34.91 percent and plastic and linoleum declined by 35.67 percent. Imports of commodities is also affected due to lock down, import of precious stone declined by 53.46 percent, electrical and non-electrical machinery fell by 31.72 percent, electric good import fell by 29.09 percent and coal, coke and briquettes declined by 23.54 percent.

However, gems and jewellery shipments fell by 98.74 percent, leather shipments fell by 93.28 percent, and petroleum products declined by 66.22 percent, chemical shipments fell by 42 percent and engineering goods declined by 64.76 percent. Only pharmaceutical and iron ore reported positive growth during last the 2 months.

 

Impact on foreign reserves:

One big reason for this surge in foreign exchange reserves is temporary closure of imports to India as this has blocked the outflow of foreign exchange reserves, keeping it intact. The reserves showed a surge of $113 million to $479.455 billion in mid-April. The forex reserves show an all-time high of $487.23 billion in early March, after it lofted by $5.69 billion. During FY20, the nation’s forex reserves ascended by nearly $62 billion. In the week of April 27, 2020, a significant part of the overall reserves which is the foreign currency assets (FCA), hiked by $1.752 billion to $443.316 billion.

 

Government measures:

Due to the lock down, major industrial units are closed. There is restriction for movement in the goods and various other issues such as job loss, 70-80 percent cancellations in orders and increasing non-performing assets is already been noticed. Therefore, government has announced various measures and packages to cope up this situation. For Agri-infrastructure, the government has allocated Rs 1 lakh crore so that farm gate infrastructure such as cold chain are strengthened and Rs 500 crore for operation greens has implemented, for better price realization for farmers.

Government will amend essential commodities act and allow market force to deregulate price. The government will intervene if any emergency situation arises such as drastic hike in price or any other crisis. These announcements will help government to achieve their target of $100 billion Agri exports.

 

 

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