FPIs Pour Inflows in June, Pull Back in Early July: What’s Driving the Volatility?
For the third month running, FPIs remained net buyers, adding ₹14,590 crore to Indian equities in June 2025. However, the momentum reversed in early July, with FPIs turning net sellers amid global uncertainty and shifting risk appetite.
Introduction
Indian equity markets witnessed robust foreign inflows in June 2025, with FPIs investing ₹14,590 crore, buoyed by favorable global liquidity, a supportive monetary policy, and positive domestic triggers. But as July commenced, the sentiment reversed, with FPIs pulling out more than ₹1,400 crore in the opening week alone. The sharp reversal highlights the sensitivity of global capital to macroeconomic cues, currency movements, and sectoral dynamics.
June’s Inflows: What Attracted FPIs?
Key Drivers Behind the Surge
• RBI’s Rate Cut: The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to lower interest rates in June provided a boost to equities, making them more attractive relative to other emerging markets.
• Global Liquidity: Easing monetary policy by major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, improved risk sentiment and encouraged capital flows to high-growth markets like India.
• Sectoral Strength: FPIs favored sectors such as financials, automobiles, and oil & gas, which showed strong earnings momentum and resilience to global headwinds.
• Rupee Stability: A relatively steady rupee, despite global currency volatility, reassured foreign investors about currency risk.
• Geopolitical Easing: Reduced tensions in key global hotspots and a stable political environment post-election added to investor confidence.
Sectoral Patterns
• Financials and Automobiles: These sectors led the inflows, with FPIs betting on strong credit growth, rising consumption, and a cyclical recovery in auto sales.
• Oil & Gas: Attracted by stable crude prices and government reforms, FPIs increased their exposure to oil marketing and exploration companies.
• Outflows in Capital Goods and Power: Despite overall inflows, some capital-intensive sectors saw profit booking as valuations stretched and concerns about project execution lingered.
July’s Reversal: Why Did FPIs Turn Cautious?
Triggers for Outflows
• Global Uncertainty: Renewed concerns over US-China trade tensions, coupled with hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve, led to a risk-off sentiment across emerging markets.
• Rupee Appreciation: A sudden strengthening of the rupee reduced the relative attractiveness of Indian assets, prompting some profit-taking by FPIs.
• Oil Price Instability: The unpredictability of crude prices has heightened concerns around India’s current account deficit and inflation, unsettling investor sentiment.
• Sectoral Rotation: With valuations running high in favored sectors, FPIs shifted focus, leading to outflows from equities and selective profit booking.
Broader Context: FPI Flows and Indian Markets
Why FPI Flows Matter
As major liquidity providers, FPIs tend to magnify market rallies as well as downturns in India. Their investment decisions are influenced by a complex interplay of global risk appetite, domestic policy, corporate earnings, and currency trends.
Historical Perspective
The June inflow marked the third consecutive month of net buying by FPIs, following a period of outflows earlier in the year driven by global risk aversion and election-related uncertainty. The sudden shift in July reflects the unpredictable behavior of foreign capital and reinforces the need for steady macroeconomic fundamentals.
What’s Next for FPI Flows?
Analyst Views
• Volatility Ahead: Market experts expect FPI flows to remain choppy in the near term, with global cues, corporate earnings, and domestic policy moves dictating sentiment.
• Sectoral Shifts: As valuations become stretched in some sectors, FPIs may rotate into under-owned areas or increase allocations to debt and hybrid instruments.
• Long-Term Outlook: Despite short-term volatility, India’s structural growth story, ongoing reforms, and improving macro fundamentals are likely to keep the country on FPIs’ radar.
Conclusion
The recent swings in FPI flows highlight the dynamic nature of global investing and the need for investors to stay nimble. While June’s robust inflows underscored confidence in India’s growth prospects, early July’s pullback serves as a reminder of the ever-present influence of global headwinds. As the market digests new information and policy signals, FPI behavior will continue to be a critical barometer for Indian equities.
:
The image added is for representation purposes only
