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India: Infrastructure Set to Outpace IT as the Growth Engine
Business, Equities, Market News, Markets - January 7, 2025

India’s Economy: Resilient Amid Global Uncertainties and Poised to Lead Emerging Markets in 2025

India’s Economy: Resilient Amid Global Uncertainties and Poised to Lead Emerging Markets in 2025

In recent years, despite economic and global insecurities and turbulence, India’s economy has consistently been standing its ground on resilience and development. In recent times, two reliable reports have been staged to bolster this connotation, one published by Goldman Sachs and the other by Morgan Stanley.

Goldman Sachs Report
A new Goldman Sachs report published on 10th December 2024, forecasts the reaffirmation of India’s economy to remain firm. This report comes despite of numerous uncertainties owing to India’s solid macroeconomic fundamentals and strategic reforms. This positive posture has been reflected by various financial institutions thus positioning India as a strong leader among the emerging markets in 2025. At the core of this stability, India has been able to achieve sound macroeconomic management. The Reserve Bank of India has managed fairly well in terms of controlling inflation while ensuring overall financial stability. Governor Shaktikanta Das, in this way, noted that India is, in his opinion, “well positioned” to cope with external shocks due to the country’s policies, decent levels of foreign exchange reserves, and external debt.
Economists at Goldman Sachs predicted that India’s GDP would increase by an average of 6.5% between 2025 and 2030. Their 6.3% projection for 2025 is 40 basis points lower than the consensus of analysts polled by Bloomberg. The slowing growth rate is due, in part, to diminishing public capital expenditure growth. According to budget predictions, the Indian federal government’s capex growth fell from a CAGR of 30% per year between 2021 and 2024 to mid-single digits in nominal terms in 2025.
Credit is slowing

Credit is also shrinking. Total private sector loan growth in India peaked in the first quarter of the 2024 calendar year and has slowed in the past two quarters. The slowdown was primarily caused by a decline in bank credit growth to roughly 12.8% as of October, down from more than 16% in the first quarter of this year. In particular, household credit growth in unsecured personal loans slowed after the Reserve Bank of India tightened retail loan standards in November 2023.
Inflation Factor

Headline inflation in India is predicted to average 4.2% year on year in 2025, with food inflation at 4.6%, significantly lower than our analysts’ prediction of 7%-plus for 2024, thanks to ample rainfall and robust summer crop sowing. Food supply shocks caused by weather-related interruptions remain the most significant risk to this prediction. So far, excessive and erratic food inflation, primarily driven by vegetable prices due to weather shocks, has prevented the RBI from relaxing monetary policy. Core inflation should be around the RBI’s objective of 4% year on year in 2025, with the likelihood of inflation falling if US tariffs force Chinese firms to reallocate products to regional markets. The RBI has managed fairly well in terms of controlling inflation while ensuring overall financial stability. Governor Shaktikanta Das, in this way, noted that India is, in his opinion, “well positioned” to cope with external shocks due country’s policies, decent levels of foreign exchange reserves, and external debt.

Market Outlook
A separate analysis from Goldman Sachs Research predicts that India’s equities would perform substantially in the medium future. In the short term, however, sluggish economic growth, high beginning values, and negative earnings-per-share revisions may keep markets rangebound. Goldman Sachs equity experts believe the benchmark NIFTY index will reach 27,000 by the end of 2025. They also predict MSCI India earnings to expand by 12% and 13% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, falling short of consensus expectations of 13% and 16%. The MSCI India index of companies is trading at a 23x forward P/E multiple, which is much higher than the 10-year average and higher than our strategists’ top-down fair value estimate of 21x, implying more de-rating risk.

Further, the report remains neutral on Indian stocks in the short term, but sees potential in local sectors such as automobiles, telcos, insurance, real estate, and e-commerce, which may have a better path to higher profitability.

Morgan Stanley Report
According to Morgan Stanley’s India Equity Strategy Playbook, India will be among the top emerging markets by 2025. As a result, the BSE Sensex is expected to reach 93,000 by December 2025, a growth of around 18%. The researchers deem India’s value multiple high because over the next four to five years India is expected to record profits growth at an average rate of 18-20% on a yearly basis coupled with macroeconomic stability and a large pool of domestic risk capital. A gradual increase in the level of protection against global market volatility is verified by the fall in the correlation between the returns on India’s equities and the world’s stock markets.

Market Sentiment
Factors that determine the sentiment such as Morgan Stanley’s in-house sentiment index portray a neutral to buy market, which coincides with the bullish perspective of the team. Domestic mutual fund sources remain robust, especially SIPs, although other sources not belonging in that category are slowing down. On the other hand, foreign equity portfolio inflow is favorable, while outflow in debt portfolio is unfavorable. Sensex earnings are predicted to expand at an annualized rate of 17% through FY27, with corporate profits as a percentage of GDP on the rise. Profitability measurements like return on equity (ROE) show a positive cycle. Corporate debt is expected to reach 58% of GDP by 2025, with a positive nominal growth outlook notwithstanding market expectations for low growth.

US- India Relations
The gap between real GDP growth and the 10-year bond yield points to a positive prognosis for stocks. Indicators such as the policy certainty index, which has declined from pre-election levels, and the favorable real policy rate gap with the United States also help equities performance. Short-term interest rate and yield curve trends suggest that equities returns may moderate in the next 24 months, while earnings growth in the high teens is predicted during the next year. Global investors are likely to find relative safety in India’s financial markets as a result of Donald Trump’s economic plans, especially any protectionist trade policies that may cause emerging market turbulence. However, investors and analysts believe that India’s strong economic growth, minimal exposure to the Chinese and US consumer markets, healthy local appetite for equities, and a central bank committed to currency stability will boost the country’s appeal in the face of global uncertainty.

Conclusion
Thus according to these reports, India’s share of the EM and global indices is increasing, and its performance relative to China is improving. Household savings are shifting towards shares and away from gold, indicating increased confidence in financial assets.

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Auto Sector Eyes 5% Growth in 2025

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India: Infrastructure Set to Outpace IT as the Growth Engine
Business, Equities, Expert Views, Investor Forum, Market News, Markets, Research, Research Reports, Result Updates - December 5, 2023

Beyond boundaries: G20 Influence elevates Indian markets to new peaks

Beyond boundaries: G20 Influence elevates Indian markets to new peaks

Introduction:

The recent rally in key benchmark indices, particularly in the Indian stock market, has caught the attention of market experts and participants. This is a significant milestone, marking the first time the index has crossed the 20,000 mark. It took 52 sessions for Nifty to climb from 19,000 to 20,000, indicating a steady and sustained upward trend. Sensex regained the 67,000 mark, this further emphasizes the positive sentiment in the market, with both major indices reaching new highs. Nifty reached a new peak of 20,008 after 36 sessions.

This surge is attributed to a participatory rally involving Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), and Indian retail investors. Additionally, recent triggers, including the success of the G20 summit, have played a pivotal role in attracting global investors to the Indian markets.

Participatory Rally by Diverse Investors:

The driving force behind the rally in Indian indices can be attributed to the collective participation of various investor groups. FIIs, DIIs, and Indian retail investors have all played significant roles in contributing to the upward momentum. The continuous inflows from these diverse sources have created a robust and inclusive market environment.

• FIIs Inflows: Foreign Institutional Investors have been actively participating in the Indian market, attracted by the country’s economic resilience and growth potential. The influx of foreign capital has not only provided liquidity but has also signaled global confidence in the Indian market.

• DIIs and Retail Investors: Domestic Institutional Investors, along with a surge in participation from retail investors, have added depth to the market rally. Increased retail investor activity, facilitated by easier access to markets and digital platforms, has injected vitality into the markets.

G20 Success and Global Investor Confidence:

The recent success of the G20 summit has acted as a significant catalyst, drawing global investors’ attention towards the Indian markets. The resounding success in addressing global economic challenges and fostering cooperation among nations has positioned India as an attractive investment destination. The G20’s success has injected momentum into the markets, yet valuations have room to surpass previous peaks. Increased bilateral trades, particularly in segments like pipes and cables, are anticipated. Sectors such as Railways, Shipping, and Logistics stand to gain from recent announcements. With strengthened corporate earnings, indices are poised for further growth in the near to medium term. Market euphoria has propelled indices past the 20,000 mark, eyeing 20,500 levels this month. Optimism, fueled by India’s strong showing at the G20 summit, is a key driver.

The Nifty has hit 20,000 in its second attempt after July 2023, propelled by strong domestic investment flows and mixed or negative overseas flows. In the face of global concerns, India’s achievement in space and foreign diplomacy has strengthened confidence. Despite their strong advance, smallcap and midcap companies warrant a reassessment of asset allocation and consideration of profit booking or capital raising.

• International Perception: The positive outcomes of the G20 summit have enhanced the international perception of India as a stable and growth-oriented economy. This has instilled confidence among global investors, leading to increased allocations to Indian equities.

• Attractiveness of Emerging Markets: Amid global uncertainties, emerging markets, including India, are viewed as promising investment destinations. The G20 success has underscored India’s commitment to economic reforms and sustainable development, further elevating its status among emerging market economies.

Conclusion:

The global financial markets have witnessed a remarkable phenomenon in recent months, with many key indices reaching unprecedented all-time highs. This surge has captured the attention of investors, analysts, and policymakers alike. The participatory rally in the Indian stock market, driven by the collective involvement of FIIs, DIIs, and retail investors, is a testament to the overall confidence in the country’s economic trajectory. The success of the G20 summit has amplified this sentiment, attracting global investors seeking stable and promising opportunities. As the Indian market continues to evolve, monitoring the sustained inflows and the impact of global events will be essential for investors and market participants to navigate and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

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Strategic Partnerships Fuel One97’s Financial Turnaround

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India: Infrastructure Set to Outpace IT as the Growth Engine
Business, Equities, Expert Views, Investor Forum, Market News, Markets, Research, Research Reports, Result Updates - November 1, 2023

India’s soaring success : dedicated India funds outperforming emerging markets

India’s soaring success: dedicated India funds outperforming emerging markets

Dedicated India funds have outperformed emerging market funds in recent months, as investors shift their focus to economies that are less reliant on China. India is one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world, and it is benefiting from a number of factors, including strong domestic demand, a young and growing population, and a government that is supportive of investment.

The average India fund returned 30.2% in the year to the end of September, compared to 18.7% for emerging market funds. This outperformance has been driven by a number of factors, including strong economic growth in India, a relatively low valuation for Indian stocks, and a favorable investment climate.

India’s economy is expected to grow at 7% in 2023, according to the World Bank, making it one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. This growth is being driven by a number of factors, including a young and growing population, rising consumer spending, and increasing investment in infrastructure and manufacturing.

Indian stocks are also relatively undervalued, trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 17, compared to 20 for emerging market stocks as a whole. This makes Indian stocks attractive to investors who are looking for value. The Indian government has also taken steps to improve the investment climate in recent years. These steps include reducing red tape, simplifying tax rules, and improving corporate governance. These changes have made India a more attractive destination for foreign investors.

The outperformance of dedicated India funds is likely to continue in the coming months. India’s economy is expected to remain strong, its stock market is relatively undervalued, and the government is committed to improving the investment climate.

 

Benefits of investing in India-dedicated funds:-

1. Access to a growing economy:
India is the world’s fastest-growing major economy, with a projected GDP growth rate of 7% in 2023. This growth is being driven by a young and growing population, rising consumer spending, and increasing investment in infrastructure and manufacturing.

2. Undervalued stocks:
Indian stocks are trading at a relatively low valuation, compared to emerging market stocks as a whole. This makes Indian stocks attractive to investors who are looking for value.

3. Favorable investment climate:
The Indian government has taken steps to improve the investment climate in recent years, including reducing red tape, simplifying tax rules, and improving corporate governance. These changes have made India a more attractive destination for foreign investors.

4. Diversification:
Investing in India-focused funds can provide diversification benefits to your investment portfolio. These funds typically invest in a wide range of Indian stocks and securities, which can help spread risk across different sectors and industries within the Indian economy.

5. Expertise and local knowledge:
Many India-focused funds are managed by professionals with deep knowledge of the Indian market and its unique dynamics. They have the ability to conduct in-depth research, identify promising investment opportunities, and navigate the complexities of the Indian financial system.

US Market:


Demand for US sovereign debt is expected to hold up well in the next few months, but there are risks ahead in the next year from all directions. Fund flows into energy-dedicated funds have started to accelerate, as energy prices in the US are expected to be higher for a longer period.

Overall Flows Subdued:
Overall fund flows have been fairly subdued recently, with bond funds taking in a bit more money than equity funds. However, this is likely to change in the coming months, as investors look to rotate into more cyclical assets in anticipation of a stronger economic recovery.

Implications for Investors:
Investors who are looking for growth should consider overweighting emerging markets equities in their portfolios. They should also consider adding some exposure to energy-related stocks, as well as cyclical stocks that stand to benefit from a stronger economic recovery. However, investors should also be mindful of the risks associated with these investments,
including volatility and currency risk.

 

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