Liquor stocks beat FMCG peers in one year; 3 rally drivers & 3 future growth triggers
For years, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies were considered the safest bet in Indian equity markets, thanks to stable demand, strong distribution networks, and predictable earnings. However, in the last twelve months, a new set of consumer-facing companies has stolen the spotlight: liquor stocks. Shares of leading alcoholic beverage makers have sharply outperformed FMCG heavyweights, driven by structural tailwinds, shifting preferences, and improving performance. Analysts note the liquor industry, once bogged down by regulatory bottlenecks and margin pressures, is now enjoying a renaissance. Rising disposable incomes, premiumisation, and operational efficiencies have made the sector more attractive. This rally is not just sentiment-driven.
Three Reasons Powering the Current Rally
1. Premiumisation and Changing Preferences: The most significant factor driving liquor stocks higher is premiumisation. Consumers, especially in urban India, are trading up from economy to mid- and high-end spirits. A younger demographic, increased social acceptance, and rising incomes have fueled demand for premium whisky, gin, craft beer, and imported wines. Companies like United Spirits, Radico Khaitan, and United Breweries have capitalized on this, reporting double-digit growth in premium segments. Premium products offer higher margins compared to mass-market spirits, directly lifting profitability. With aspirational consumption rising, this shift is a secular driver.
2. Margin Expansion through Cost Optimisation: Unlike FMCG players battling rural weakness and inflationary pressures, liquor companies have shown resilience in cost management. Improved supply chain efficiency, portfolio rationalization, and raw material price stability (especially in extra neutral alcohol) have enabled margin expansion. United Spirits reported margin gains through efficiencies and premium focus, while Radico Khaitan benefited from backward integration. In contrast, FMCG firms saw muted margins, weighed down by competition and weak volumes. This divergence has driven liquor stock valuations higher.
3. Strong Post-Pandemic Demand Recovery: Alcohol consumption normalized post-pandemic, with bars, restaurants, and hotels witnessing robust recovery. Weddings, festivals, and gatherings have returned at scale, directly boosting liquor sales. Travel retail, which had collapsed during COVID-19, is rebounding, adding another lever. This recovery contrasts with subdued FMCG demand, particularly in rural markets where inflation eroded purchasing power. Liquor companies, therefore, have delivered stronger topline growth, making their stocks stand out in a lackluster consumer sector.
Three Long-Term Triggers for Sustained Growth
1. Regulatory Reforms and Policy Support: Regulatory uncertainty has long overhung the liquor industry. However, trends suggest greater stability and, in some cases, supportive measures. States are rationalizing excise duties, while the central government’s ethanol blending push has indirectly benefited liquor makers by creating alternative demand for distilleries. Although risks remain, incremental clarity and reduced taxation volatility bode well for confidence.
2. Export Opportunities and Global Expansion: India’s liquor brands, especially premium whiskies and spirits, are gaining global recognition. Radico Khaitan’s premium brands and United Spirits’ Diageo-backed portfolio have found acceptance overseas. Exports are a significant opportunity, given India’s cost competitiveness and rising appeal of Indian-origin products. Global markets diversify revenues and shield from domestic challenges. Over time, exports could emerge as a strong growth pillar, similar to IT and pharma earlier.
3. Rising Formalisation and Organised Share Gains: The Indian liquor industry has traditionally been fragmented, with much share captured by unorganized players. However, stricter enforcement, consumer preference for trusted brands, and wider premium availability are driving formalisation. Organised players like United Breweries, United Spirits, and Radico Khaitan are steadily gaining share at the expense of smaller operators. This structural shift ensures sustained growth, giving them a long runway for expansion.
FMCG vs. Liquor: A Changing Narrative
The performance gap between liquor stocks and FMCG peers highlights a changing investor narrative. While FMCG remains defensive with long-term stability, liquor offers higher growth, better margins, and exposure to premium consumer spending. Investors are recalibrating allocations, increasing exposure to alcohol stocks despite regulatory complexities.
Conclusion
The outperformance of liquor stocks over FMCG peers in the past year reflects more than short-term enthusiasm. Premiumisation, margin expansion, and post-pandemic recovery provided momentum. At the same time, regulatory stability, global expansion, and formalisation offer structural tailwinds for sustained growth.
For investors, this creates an attractive proposition: a sector with cyclical demand drivers backed by strong fundamentals. While regulatory risks cannot be ignored, the liquor industry’s improved resilience and profitability profile suggest it may continue to sparkle in India’s consumer story.
The image added is for representation purposes only
