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Anticipation and Trends: Insights into Asian stock markets amid US inflation release

Anticipation and Trends: Insights into Asian stock markets amid US inflation release
Introduction:

Asian stock markets experienced a positive trend in the latest trading session as investors cautiously awaited the release of US inflation data. The anticipation surrounding the inflation figures contributed to a mix of optimism and caution among market participants, leading to a modest but noticeable uptick in stock prices across the region.

Market Overview:

Asian Markets:
Major Asian stock indices, including the Nikkei 225 in Japan, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong, and the Shanghai Composite in China, displayed gains during the trading session. This upward movement was attributed to a variety of factors, such as positive economic data from the region and a sense of optimism stemming from global recovery efforts.

US Inflation Data:

The key driver of market sentiment during this period was the impending release of US inflation data. Investors closely monitored these figures as they are crucial in shaping expectations for future monetary policy decisions by central banks. The US Federal Reserve has consistently emphasized its commitment to an accommodative monetary stance, and any surprises in inflation figures could influence these policy considerations.

Asian stocks rise ahead of US inflation numbers:

Asian stocks inched up cautiously on Tuesday, with investors awaiting a crucial US inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.49%, while the Japanese Nikkei gained 0.36%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index was the top performer, climbing 0.61%.

The market’s cautious optimism was fueled by the expectation that US inflation may have peaked. Investors are hoping that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released later today will show a decline in the headline inflation rate from 3.3% in October to 3.7%. A lower-than-expected reading could ease concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes from the Fed, boosting risk appetite.

However, the market sentiment remains fragile as a higher-than-expected inflation reading could lead to further tightening by the Fed, impacting global economic growth. Additionally, investors are also watching out for other central bank meetings this week, including the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Norge’s Bank, and the Swiss National Bank.

Regional Highlights:

Japan: The Nikkei 225 edged up 0.36%, supported by gains in technology and consumer discretionary stocks. However, the gains were capped by a weaker yen, which fell to a one-year low against the US dollar.
China: Mainland China’s blue-chip CSI 300 index edged down 0.28%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng index fell 0.20%. Investors remained cautious amid concerns about the slowing Chinese economy and the lack of clear policy support from the government.
Australia: The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.61%, led by gains in energy and materials stocks. The market sentiment was boosted by positive earnings reports from major companies and rising commodity prices.
South Korea: The KOSPI index gained 0.33%, supported by gains in tech and healthcare stocks. Investor sentiment was also lifted by expectations of a slower pace of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Korea.

Market Sentiment Influencing Factors:

1. Global economic recovery: The continuous global economic recovery, fueled by vaccine rollouts and fiscal stimulus measures, offered a positive backdrop for equity markets. Positive economic indications from major economies, such as solid manufacturing data and improved employment figures, aided the general positive sentiment.

2. Central Bank Policies: Investors closely monitored central bank announcements for any indications of prospective monetary policy adjustments. The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates and asset purchases remained a focus, and any signals of a policy shift might have an influence on market dynamics.

3. Geopolitical developments: While geopolitical concerns were not the primary focus, continuing events and developments in many countries, such as trade talks and diplomatic ties, influenced market mood to some extent.

Conclusion:

Asian stocks rose cautiously in anticipation of US inflation data, reflecting a mix of optimism and caution. The expectation of a potential decrease in US inflation boosted market confidence, but fragility remains amid concerns about aggressive Fed actions. Regional highlights showed varied performances, influenced by factors like currency dynamics and regulatory uncertainties. Overall, investors are navigating a nuanced landscape shaped by global economic recovery, central bank policies, and geopolitical events, requiring vigilance and adaptability.

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Paper Price Surge Hits Q2 Profits: Navneet Education Adapts with Price Adjustments

Paper Price Surge Hits Q2 Profits: Navneet Education Adapts with Price Adjustments

Company Name: Navneet Education Ltd | NSE Code: NAVNETEDUL | BSE Code: 508989 | 52 Week high/low: 176/88.1 | CMP: INR 143 | Mcap: INR 3,231 Cr | PE: 26.5

Company Overview:

Navneet Education is a key player in the manufacturing and trading of educational books, reference materials, and stationery, with a significant market presence in both paper and non-paper categories. The company commands a dominant market share of 65% in western India and exports its stationary products to over 30 countries, with a focus on the US. Navneet Education operates three manufacturing sites in Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Palghar, and Gandhinagar.

Paper Price Surge Causes 20% Quarterly Revenue Drop:

In Q2FY24, the company experienced a 20% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) revenue decline, primarily attributed to a surge in paper prices. The quarterly revenue plummeted by 66.42% year-on-year (YoY) and 19.41% QoQ due to increased paper costs. To counteract this rise, the company raised prices on some publication products, leading to decreased demand. Furthermore, changes in the paper pattern for certain standards resulted in the postponement of related examination book releases to the third quarter.

Resilient Stationary Business in Q2:

Despite challenges in the publication segment, the stationary business demonstrated resilience with a marginal decline of 0.79% QoQ and a substantial 46.65% YoY decrease. The domestic stationary market usually performs well in Q4 and Q1, and the company anticipates achieving a growth of 12%-15% in this segment for FY24. In H1FY24, the overall stationary business recorded revenue of Rs. 547 crores and EBIT of Rs. 71 crores, reflecting a margin of approximately 12.9%.

Segment-Wise Performance in Q2:

For Q2, consolidated revenue contracted by 66.42% YoY, reaching 266 Crores, primarily due to the slowdown in the publication business. The publication segment was significantly impacted, with an 83.08% YoY decrease in revenue to 73 Crores, while the stationary business remained resilient, declining by 0.79% QoQ and 46.65% YoY to 190 Crores.

Valuation and key ratio

As of now, the stock trades at a multiple of 26.5x earnings per share (EPS) (TTM) of 10.4 Rs, with a market price of 143 Rs. The industry price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is at 28.7x. The company’s stock is valued at 2.54 times its book value of 56.3 Rs per share. In terms of enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EV/EBITDA), the company ranks 6th with a multiple of 11.39x, compared to the industry median of 18.11x. The trailing twelve-month return on equity (ROE) and return on capital employed (ROCE) stand at 15% and 19.4%, respectively, with a healthy interest coverage ratio of 12x.

Q2FY24 Result Update – Consolidated

➡️In Q2FY24, consolidated revenue declined by 66.42% (-19.41% QoQ) to 266 Crores, primarily attributed to challenges in the publication business stemming from the rise in paper prices.

➡️Gross profit decreased by 63.56% YoY, reaching 134 Crores, while gross margin improved by 400 basis points YoY to 50.56%, driven by a decline in raw material costs by 68.91% YoY.

➡️EBITDA experienced a significant downturn, decreasing by 102.06% YoY to -4.30 Crores, mainly due to challenges in the publication business. EBITDA margin stood at -1.62% in Q2FY24 compared to 26.39% in Q2FY23.

➡️Operating profit (EBIT) decreased by 109.65% YoY to -18.9 Crores in Q2FY24, with an EBIT margin of -7.11%, contrasting with 24.74% in Q2FY23.

➡️Profit after tax (PAT) decreased by 75.44% YoY to 35.6 Crores, supported by a one-time gain from the sale of a plant worth 68 Crores. PAT margin dropped by 500 basis points YoY to 13.39%.

➡️Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter stood at 1.58 Rs, a significant improvement compared to -0.10 Rs in the previous quarter.

Conclusion:

Navneet Education faced significant challenges in Q2FY24, marked by a substantial decline in consolidated revenue, primarily attributed to the impact of rising paper prices on the publication business. While the stationary segment exhibited resilience, the company navigated the downturn by adjusting prices and strategizing for a rebound. The focus on cost management, evident in improved gross margins, showcases the company’s adaptability. With a strong market presence and strategic manufacturing capabilities, Navneet Education aims to overcome challenges, emphasizing growth prospects in the stationary business for the remainder of FY24. Investors should monitor the company’s efforts to mitigate the impact of external factors on its financial performance.

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EdTech and MarTech: CL Educate's Strategic Shift Towards Higher Margins

EdTech and MarTech: CL Educate’s Strategic Shift Towards Higher Margins

Company Name: CL Educate Ltd | NSE Code: CLEDUCATE | BSE Code: 540403 | 52 Week high/low: 91/48.8 | CMP: INR 80.9 | Mcap: INR 445 Cr | PE: 15.3

Company Overview:

CL Educate is a prominent player in the Indian EdTech and MarTech segments, providing education and test preparation training programs, including tuition for school students and coaching for entrance exams. The company has a presence in over 90 cities in India and globally in the UAE. Under the MarTech segment, CL Educate offers Event management, Digital, and CEP services. The company boasts a 35%+ market share in MBA and Law Test preparation.

EdTech Business Revenue Remains Stable as EBITDA Surges 17% YoY

In Q2FY24, EdTech business revenue showed a nearly flat growth of 6.63% YoY, while EBITDA in this segment surged by 17%. The flatness in EdTech revenue is attributed to academic seasonality, with the CLAT (Law Exam) moving from a summer exam to December. The platform business in the EdTech segment grew by 30% in H1, adding 42 new clients. Publishing revenue increased by 18%, with improved margins due to a decrease in paper prices by 18%-20%. The repeat customer strike rate increased by 90%, billing grew by 30%, and collections increased by 40%.

MarTech Business Topline Growth Stalls, but EBITDA Grows 60% – Margins Expand:

While MarTech business topline growth declined by 10.6%, EBITDA in this segment grew by an impressive 60%. The company strategically let go of lower-margin businesses, such as support services, focusing instead on high-margin marketing and B2B demand generation. New customers were added in sectors such as Fintech, FMCG, Financial services, and Automobiles.

PAT Jumps 26.2% YoY on Lower Interest Cost and Tax Rate:

In Q2FY24, Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 26.2% YoY (1.54% QoQ) to 5.56 Cr, despite flat revenue for the quarter. The growth in PAT was driven by a 14.82% YoY decrease in interest costs to 0.54 Cr and a 16.19% YoY decrease in tax expenses to 1.88 Cr. The tax rate declined by 8.48% YoY to 25.33% in Q2FY24, compared to 33.81% in Q2FY23.

Q2FY4 Concall Highlights:

➡️The CLAT exam’s move to December led to increased sales of long-duration courses, contributing to higher ARPU and margins.

➡️The company will focus on CUET for 2024 test prep and the IPM crash season in H2.

➡️The increasing number of CAT takers, now at 3.3 lakhs, compared to 2.2 & 2.6 lakhs in the last 5-7 years, is expected to bring more business, where the company holds a 25%-30% market share in CAT test prep.

Valuation and key ratio

The stock is currently trading at a multiple of 15.3x EPS (TTM) of 3.13 Rs at a market price of 80.9, with an industry PE at 76x. The company’s stock is valued at 1.56 times its book value of 51.9 Rs per share. In EV/EBITDA multiple, the company holds the 7th position with a multiple of 10.57x, while the industry median stands at 29.63x. Trailing twelve-month ROE and ROCE stood at 8.16% and 6.81%, respectively, while the interest coverage ratio demonstrated the company’s solvency at 6.13x in Q2FY24.

Q2FY24 Result Update – Consolidated

➡️In Q2FY24, consolidated revenue growth was nearly flat, down by 0.58% YoY (-1.08% QoQ) to 89 Cr, primarily due to a decline in the MarTech business segment. The company’s strategic focus on higher-margin services, such as marketing and B2B business, offset the decline.

➡️Consolidated EBITDA declined by 15.52% YoY (-24.05% QoQ) to 6.72 Cr due to lower margins in the EdTech business. EBITDA margins were down 130 bps YoY and 228 bps QoQ to 7.55%.

➡️Operating profit (EBIT) decreased by 41.08% YoY (-39.49% QoQ) to 3.32 Cr due to higher depreciation, with EBIT margin declining by 250 bps YoY and 237 bps QoQ to 3.74%.

➡️PAT surged by 26.2% YoY (+1.54% QoQ) to 5.56 Cr, driven by lower interest costs and tax expenses, leading to a PAT margin increase of 133 bps YoY and 16 bps QoQ to 6.25%.

➡️EPS for the quarter stood at 1.01 Rs compared to the previous quarter’s 0.99 Rs.

Conclusion:

CL Educate demonstrates resilience in its EdTech and MarTech businesses, navigating seasonality challenges and strategically optimizing its service portfolio for higher margins. Despite flat revenue, the company’s focus on long-duration courses and strategic adjustments positions it well for future growth. The positive trajectory of key financial indicators and a strong market share in critical test preparation segments contribute to a promising outlook for CL Educate.

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Unlocking the Philippine Defense Market: Opportunities for Indian Companies

Unlocking the Philippine Defense Market: Opportunities for Indian Companies
Introduction:

Indian defense companies are looking to capitalize on the Philippines’ military modernization program by exporting a range of platforms, from protective gear to fighter jets. This follows the recent $375 million deal between the two countries for India to supply three BrahMos cruise missile batteries to the Philippines.
The relationship between India and the Philippines has been historically cordial, with diplomatic ties dating back several decades. In recent years, both countries have sought to deepen their economic and strategic partnerships.
India’s growing defense capabilities, technological advancements, and competitive pricing make it an attractive partner for the Philippines as it aims to modernize its armed forces. This report examines the potential for Indian defense exports to meet the Philippines’ evolving security needs.

Current State of Defense Exports:

I. India’s Defense Industry:
India has emerged as a key player in the global defense market, showcasing advancements in missile technology, naval systems, and other military hardware. Indian defense companies have successfully exported equipment to various countries.
India aims to significantly increase its defense exports, aiming for a threefold jump to $5 billion annually by 2024-2025. This ambitious target reflects India’s growing capabilities in defense manufacturing and its aspirations to become a major global player in the industry.
II. Philippines’ Defense Requirements:
The Philippines faces security challenges that necessitate the modernization of its armed forces. The government has expressed its intent to acquire advanced defense systems and equipment to bolster national security.

Market Analysis:

The Philippines is one of the largest arms importers in Southeast Asia, with a defense budget of around $5.5 billion in 2023. The country is looking to modernize its military to counter China’s growing presence in the South China Sea. This has created a significant opportunity for Indian defense companies, which are looking to diversify their export markets.

Potential Areas of Collaboration:

➡️Naval Systems:
India’s expertise in naval technology, including shipbuilding and submarine capabilities, aligns with the Philippines’ need to enhance its maritime defense capabilities.
➡️Aerospace and Aviation:
Indian companies specializing in aircraft manufacturing, avionics, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can offer solutions to address the Philippines’ requirements for air force modernization.
➡️Cybersecurity and Intelligence:
With the increasing importance of cybersecurity, Indian firms can provide expertise in securing critical infrastructure and intelligence-sharing mechanisms.

Challenges and Opportunities:

1. Competition:
While Indian companies possess significant advantages like competitive pricing, proven performance in challenging environments, and a rapidly growing domestic defense industry, they face stiff competition from established players like the United States, Russia, and South Korea. Overcoming this competition requires a strategic approach focused on:
o Developing products tailored to the specific needs of the Philippines.
o Collaborating closely with the Philippine government and military to build trust and strategic partnerships.

2. Cultural Sensitivity:
Understanding the cultural nuances and preferences of the Philippines is crucial for successful collaborations. Building trust and relationships will be key to overcoming cultural challenges.

Regulatory and Policy Environment:

1. Export regulation:
Navigating the complex regulatory landscape governing defense exports is crucial for the success of this endeavor. Both India and the Philippines have their own export control regulations, and Indian companies must comply with them when exporting to the Philippines. The Indian government’s efforts to streamline export control procedures are expected to significantly ease the process for companies seeking to export defense equipment.
2. Government Support:
Both the Indian and Philippine governments are actively promoting defense cooperation between the two countries. This includes providing critical support to Indian companies seeking to enter the Philippine defense market. The Indian government’s establishment of a dedicated defense export agency further demonstrates its commitment to supporting its defense industry on the global stage.

➡️Beyond Equipment: Collaborative Efforts-
The partnership between India and the Philippines extends beyond the purchase of defense equipment. Both countries are actively collaborating in the critical areas of hydrography and maritime affairs, recognizing their shared interests in maritime security and navigation.

➡️Bilateral Maritime Dialogue:
The establishment of a bilateral Maritime Dialogue provides a formal platform for India and the Philippines to discuss maritime issues, share information, and develop coordinated responses to common challenges. This dialogue mechanism facilitates greater understanding and cooperation on maritime security, safety, and environmental protection.

➡️Enhanced Hydrographic Cooperation:
India and the Philippines have also pledged to strengthen their collaboration in hydrography, a crucial aspect of maritime navigation and safety. This cooperation will involve sharing expertise, technology, and resources to improve hydrographic data collection, mapping, and charting in the region.

➡️Mutual Benefits:
The expanding defense cooperation between India and the Philippines offers mutual benefits for both countries. India gains access to a new and growing market for its defense exports, while the Philippines receives valuable equipment and expertise to bolster its maritime security capabilities.
The deepening partnership between India and the Philippines represents a positive development in the Indo-Pacific region. As both countries continue to strengthen their maritime capabilities and cooperation, their collective efforts will contribute to a more stable and secure maritime environment for all.

Conclusion:

As India seeks to expand its footprint in the global defense market, the Philippines presents a promising opportunity for collaboration. By addressing challenges and leveraging each other’s strengths, Indian companies can contribute to the modernization efforts of the Philippines’ armed forces, fostering a mutually beneficial partnership.

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D-Mart's Q3 Results Miss Estimates, Faces Margin Pressure and Leadership Change

DMart Q2FY24 Working Capital Boost: Inventory and Payable Days Decrease

DMart Q2FY24 Working Capital Boost: Inventory and Payable Days Decrease

Company Name: Avenue Supermarts Ltd | NSE Code: DMART | BSE Code: 540376 | 52 Week high/low: 4,229/3,292 | CMP: INR 4,062 | Mcap: INR 2,64,411 Cr | PE: 113

Company Overview:

Avenue Supermart is primarily engaged in the business of retail supermarts under the brand name “D-Mart.” The company offers products in three categories at its stores: Food, Non-food, and Merchandise & Apparel. The Food category includes groceries, dairy, staples, beverages, fruits, and vegetables. Non-food comprises home care, personal care, toiletries, and general merchandise, while Merchandise & Apparel includes bed & bath, toys & games, garments, and footwear. Over the last year, the number of stores increased by 34, bringing the total count to 336, with a presence across 22 cities in India as of September 2023.

Q2 Sees Surge in Topline Growth Despite 9.09% YoY Dip in PAT

In Q2FY24, D-Mart reported an 18.67% YoY growth in topline, while PAT was down 9.09% YoY to 623. The slowdown in PAT was attributed to an increase in operating expenditure (up 18.2% YoY) and tax rate (up 18.5% YoY). This led to a decline in PAT margin by 150 bps YoY and 60 bps QoQ to 4.94% in Q2FY24. The sudden increase in tax expenses is due to the absence of a tax benefit in Q2FY23.

Q2 Maintains EBITDA Stability Amid Margin Decline

The company reported an EBITDA of 1,005 Cr, growing 12.66% YoY but declining 2.93% QoQ. The EBITDA margin during the quarter dropped 42 bps YoY and 75 bps QoQ, primarily due to higher COGS and operating expenditure. Purchase stock increased by 19.3% YoY to 10,771 Cr, while operating expenditure grew 18.2% QoQ to 847 Cr.

Accelerate Working Capital: Optimize Inventory and Payable Days

Lower inventory and payable days led to a faster working capital cycle. Inventory days reduced by 2.1 days to 30.3 days in Q2FY24, and payable days declined 1.2 days to 6.4%. This resulted in a Net working capital day (Inventory days – Payable days) of 23.9 days in H1FY24 compared to 24.8 days in H1FY23, indicating improved working capital efficiency.

Key Operating Metrics

Total bill cuts grew 36% half-yearly to 14.7 Cr in H1FY24. Revenue from sales per retail business area sq ft increased by 5% half-yearly to 16,729 in H1FY24. Like-for-like growth, representing the growth in revenue from the sale of the same store, stood at 8.6% in H1FY24 compared to 41.6% in H1FY23.

Valuation and key ratio

The stock is currently trading at a multiple of 113x EPS (TTM) 35.9 Rs, at the current market price 4,062 with an industry PE at 61.7x. The company’s stock is valued at 15.2 times its book value of 268 Rs per share. In EV/EBITDA multiple, the company holds the 1st position with a multiple of 67.43x, surpassing the industry median of 27.64x. Trailing twelve-month ROE and ROCE stood at 16% and 20.1%, respectively, while the interest coverage ratio demonstrated the company’s solvency at 53.3x in Q2FY24.

Q2FY24 Results Updates – Consolidated

➡️In Q2FY24, Revenue grew 18.67% YoY (+6.4% QoQ) to 12,624 Cr, driven by an increase in volumes.

➡️Gross profit increased 15.13% YoY (+2.8% QoQ) to 1,852 Cr, while gross margin declined 45 bps YoY and 50 bps QoQ to 14.67%.

➡️EBITDA surged 12.66% YoY (-2.93% QoQ) to 1,005 Cr, driven by increased revenue, with EBITDA margin dropping 42 bps YoY and 75 bps QoQ to 7.96%.

➡️Operating profit (EBIT) increased 13.77% YoY (-4.87% QoQ) to 831 Cr, while EBIT margin declined 28 bps YoY and 78 bps QoQ to 6.58%.

➡️PAT was down 9.09% YoY (-5.37% QoQ) to 623 Cr due to the decline in margins, with PAT margin dropping 150 bps YoY and 60 bps QoQ to 4.95%.

➡️EPS for the quarter stood at 9.58 Rs compared to the previous quarter at 10.12 Rs.

Conclusion:

D-Mart showed growth in Q2FY24 with an 18.67% YoY increase in revenue, but PAT declined by 9.09% due to higher operating expenses and tax rates. EBITDA remained robust, although margins dipped. The company demonstrated improved working capital efficiency, and key metrics like total bill cuts and like-for-like growth exhibited positive trends. Valuation metrics suggest a premium stock, and Q2FY24 results indicate a focus on volume-driven revenue growth.

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India's Inflation Soars in November: A Look at the Drivers and Policy Response

India’s Inflation Soars in November: A Look at the Drivers and Policy Response

Introduction:

In November, India experienced a notable rebound in inflation, primarily attributed to a surge in food prices. The increase, marked by various factors, poses challenges to the ongoing efforts to maintain price stability. This report delves into the key contributors to the inflation rebound, its implications, and potential considerations for policymakers.
➡️India’s retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 5.70% in November 2023, driven by higher food prices.
➡️This marks a rise from 4.87% in October and brings inflation closer to the upper end of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target range of 2-6%.
➡️The increase in food prices, which account for nearly half of the inflation basket, was led by items like onions, tomatoes, and pulses.
➡️Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained subdued at 4.3%.

REASONS FOR THE INFLATION REBOUND:

I. Unfavorable weather conditions: Heavy rains and unseasonal hailstorms in key agricultural regions disrupted crop production and led to supply-chain disruptions.
II. Festive season demand: Increased demand for food items during the festive season put a strain on existing supplies, pushing prices higher.
III. Global factors: The ongoing war in Ukraine and other geopolitical uncertainties continue to impact global commodity prices, including food and energy.

IMPLICATIONS:

I. Impact on Consumer Purchasing Power: The rise in inflation, particularly driven by higher food prices, could potentially erode consumer purchasing power. This may have implications for household budgets and discretionary spending, impacting overall economic activities.
II. Policy Challenges: The inflation rebound poses challenges for policymakers tasked with maintaining a delicate balance between price stability and supporting economic growth. Policymakers may need to reassess monetary and fiscal measures to address emerging inflationary pressures.
III. Interest rates: It can lead to higher interest rates, which can make it more expensive for businesses to borrow and invest.

POLICY RESPONSE TO INFLATION:

I. Monetary Measures:
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has proactively responded to the inflationary pressures by implementing a series of repo rate hikes. Since May 2023, the central bank has raised the repo rate four times. This monetary tightening is a strategic move aimed at curbing inflation and maintaining price stability.
II. Future Monetary Policy Outlook:
Given the persistent inflation challenges, there is a likelihood that the RBI will continue its monetary policy tightening in the upcoming months. The objective is to bring inflation back within the central bank’s target range, demonstrating a commitment to inflation control.
III. Government Intervention:
Apart from monetary measures, the government is expected to take initiatives to address supply-chain disruptions and enhance agricultural productivity. These interventions are crucial in tackling the root causes of the inflationary pressures, particularly in the context of rising food prices.
IV. Supply-Chain Management:
Government efforts may focus on fortifying supply chains to minimize disruptions and ensure the smooth flow of essential goods. Enhancing the resilience of supply chains is essential for stabilizing prices and mitigating the impact of supply-side shocks.
V. Agricultural Productivity:
To address inflation at its source, the government may implement policies aimed at boosting agricultural productivity. This could involve investments in technology, infrastructure, and agricultural practices to improve output and reduce dependency on imports.

FUTURE OUTLOOK:

I. The future trajectory of inflation will depend on several factors, including global commodity prices, weather conditions, and the success of government policies.
II. Experts predict inflation could stay above 5% in the next few months due to seasonal factors and possible supply-side bottlenecks.
III. The RBI’s policy decisions will be crucial in managing inflation and ensuring economic stability

CONCLUSION:

In conclusion, November’s inflation surge, led by higher food prices, poses a significant challenge to India’s price stability objectives. The RBI’s repo rate hikes signal a proactive approach to control inflation, complemented by expected government interventions targeting supply chains and agricultural productivity. Future inflation trends hinge on global factors and policy effectiveness. With projections indicating inflation above 5%, the RBI’s decisions will be pivotal for sustaining economic stability.

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RBI Charts Course for Sustainable Growth: Inflation Control as the Key

Interest Payment Burden to reduce in FY26

RBI Charts Course for Sustainable Growth: Inflation Control as the Key

RBI Charts Course for Sustainable Growth: Inflation Control as the Key

Introduction:

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) conducted its review on December 2023-2024, assessing both global and domestic economic conditions. The committee made decisions pertaining to key interest rates and provided insights into the outlook for the economy.

KEY DECISIONS:

In response to the prevailing and evolving macroeconomic conditions, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convened on December 8, 2023, and arrived at several key decisions. The committee opted to maintain the policy repo rate at 6.50 percent within the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF). Additionally, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate was held steady at 6.25 percent, while both the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate remained unchanged at 6.75 percent.

The MPC’s strategic focus is on gradually eliminating accommodation to ensure that inflation steadily approaches the set target. At the same time, the committee intends to offer the essential assistance for economic growth. These actions are consistent with the broader goal of meeting the medium-term target for Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, which is set at 4% within a +/-2% band, and thereby contributing to the development of sustainable growth.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE:

1. Global Growth: The committee acknowledged a varied deceleration in global growth among economies.
2. Inflation: Global inflation showed a downward trend but remained above target levels, with persistent underlying inflationary pressures.
3. Market Sentiments: Positive developments were noted since the previous MPC meeting, marked by declining sovereign bond yields, US dollar depreciation, and strengthened global equity markets. However, emerging market economies faced ongoing challenges with volatile capital flows.

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC OVERVIEW:

1. Economic Resilience: The domestic economy demonstrated resilience, evidenced by a robust 7.6 percent year-on-year growth in real GDP in Q2:2023-24. This growth was supported by strong investment and government consumption, mitigating the impact of net external demand.
2. Prospects for Consumption and Investment: Continued strength in manufacturing, buoyant construction, and a gradual rural sector recovery are anticipated to brighten household consumption prospects. Healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, normalized supply chains, and rising public and private capital expenditure are expected to bolster future investments.
3. GDP Growth Projection: Taking into account various factors, the MPC projected real GDP growth for 2023-24 at 7.0 percent, with Q3 at 6.5 percent and Q4 at 6.0 percent. Projections for Q1:2024-25 are 6.7 percent, Q2 at 6.5 percent, and Q3 at 6.4 percent, with risks evenly balanced.

INFLATION OUTLOOK:

1. CPI Inflation: Headline inflation fell to 4.9 percent in October 2023 due to corrections in vegetable prices, fuel deflation, and broad-based moderation in core inflation. Risks include uncertainties in food prices, base effects, and volatile crude oil prices.
2. Inflation Projection: CPI inflation is projected at 5.4 percent for 2023-24, with Q3 at 5.6 percent and Q4 at 5.2 percent. Q1:2024-25 is expected at 5.2 percent, Q2 at 4.0 percent, and Q3 at 4.7 percent, with risks evenly balanced.

MPC DECISIONS AND RESOLUTIONS:

1. Policy Rates: The MPC unanimously voted to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50 percent.
2. Focus on Inflation Alignment: The majority of the MPC expressed commitment to withdrawing accommodation to align inflation progressively to the target while supporting growth. One member, Prof. Jayanth R. Varma, expressed reservations on this aspect.

FORWARD GUIDANCE:

The MPC emphasized the need for sustained disinflation, monitoring food price pressures, and remaining vigilant to potential challenges in crude oil prices and financial markets. The current policy stance is actively disinflationary, with preparedness for timely policy actions if warranted.

CONCLUSION:

In conclusion, the RBI’s Monetary Policy Review for December 23-24 reflects a cautious approach, balancing the need for inflation control with support for economic growth amidst a dynamic global and domestic environment.

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Beyond boundaries: G20 Influence elevates Indian markets to new peaks

British Fashion Titan ASOS Makes Exclusive Indian Debut Through Ajio

Strategic Expansion: Trident Plans 14,470 Mn CAPEX by March 2024

Strategic Expansion: Trident Plans 14,470 Mn CAPEX by March 2024

Company Name: Trident Ltd | NSE Code: TRIDENT | BSE Code: 521064 | 52 Week high/low: 43.8/25 | CMP: INR 36.2 | Mcap: INR 18,427 Cr | PE: 40.4

Company Overview:

Trident Ltd is a textile company engaged in the manufacturing, trading, and selling of textile products such as yarn, terry towels, and bed sheets. Additionally, the company also manufactures paper and chemicals. It operates in three revenue segments: Bath & Bed Linen, Yarn, and Paper. With a presence in 150+ countries globally and a workforce of 13,000+, Trident Ltd is a prominent player in the industry.

Robust Revenue Growth Driven by Increased Demand

In Q2FY24, the company experienced a significant revenue growth of 24.1% YoY (+20.06% QoQ), reaching 1,761 Cr. This surge was attributed to the rising demand for textile and paper products. The Textile segment’s revenue grew by 21.48% YoY to 1,465 Cr, while the Paper segment witnessed a 13.43% YoY increase, reaching 296 Cr. Notably, Bed & Bath Linen contributed 57% to the total revenue, with Yarn and Paper contributing 27% and 17%, respectively.

Margin Improvement – EBITDA/EBIT/PAT – 350 bps/390 bps/445 bps YoY

The company’s profitability margins saw improvement in Q2FY24, driven by strategic initiatives such as higher retail price points, a focus on specific product categories, increased plant capacity utilization, and the development of new products. EBITDA margin jumped 350 bps YoY to 13.6%, while EBIT and PAT margins expanded by 390 bps YoY to 8.6% and 445 bps YoY to 7.25%, respectively.

Company Plans CAPEX of 14,470 Mn to Increase Capacity in All Segments by March 2024

Trident Ltd plans a substantial capital expenditure of 14,470 Mn to boost capacity across its segments. In the Yarn segment, there is a targeted increase in capacity by adding 98,496 spindles by December 2023 and 94,848 spindles by March 2024. Bath Linen and Chemical segments also have planned capacity expansions, requiring investments of 11,000 Mn and 1,000 Mn, respectively.

Profitability Grew 222% YoY (+41% QoQ) Led by Lower Input Prices and Demand Scenario

The company reported a remarkable 222% YoY growth and 41% QoQ growth in profitability (PAT), reaching 127 Cr during Q2FY24. This robust performance was fueled by margin improvement, lower input prices, and increased demand. PAT margin increased by 445 bps YoY and 110 bps QoQ, reaching 7.25% in Q2FY24, with a one-time exceptional gain of 36 Cr impacting the quarter.

Valuation and key ratio

As of now, the stock is trading at a multiple of 40.4x EPS (TTM) at the current market price of 36.2, with an industry PE at 27x. The company’s stock is valued at 4.4 times its book value of 8.14 Rs per share. In EV/EBITDA multiple, Trident holds the 4th position with a multiple of 18.65x, surpassing the industry median of 15.21x. In H1FY24, the ROE and ROCE stood at 10.5% and 11.1%, respectively, while the interest coverage ratio demonstrated the company’s solvency at 7.52x.

Q2FY24 Results Update: Standalone

➡️In Q2FY24, the company witnessed a revenue growth of 24.1% YoY (+20.06% QoQ) to 1,761 Cr, driven by an increase in the retail price point. Textile revenue increased by 21.48% YoY, while paper revenue increased by 13.43% YoY.

➡️Gross profit increased by 42.5% YoY (+13.84% QoQ) to 847 Cr due to a moderate rise in raw material costs. While gross margin improved by 620 bps YoY, it declined by 260 bps QoQ to 48.08% due to an increase in COGS QoQ.

➡️EBITDA surged by 67.54% YoY (+5.05% QoQ) to 240 Cr, with EBITDA margin expanding by 350 bps YoY but declining by 190 bps QoQ to 13.6% in Q2FY24.

➡️Operating profit (EBIT) grew by 131.13% YoY (+7.7% QoQ) to 152 Cr, with EBIT margin increasing by 395 bps YoY but declining by 99 bps to 8.6% in Q2FY24.

➡️PAT grew by 221.89% YoY (+41.36% QoQ) to 127 Cr, driven by margin improvement and an increase in prices. PAT margin jumped by 445 bps YoY and 110 bps QoQ to 7.25%.

➡️EPS for the quarter stood at 0.25 Rs, compared to the previous quarter’s 0.18 Rs.

Conclusion:

Trident Ltd showcased robust Q2FY24 results, marked by substantial revenue growth, margin improvement, and strategic expansion plans. With a strong global presence, diversified product portfolio, and prudent financial metrics, the company is poised for continued success in the textile industry. Investors may find the stock’s current valuation and key ratios favorable, reflecting Trident’s solid performance and growth prospects.

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Strategic Partnerships Fuel One97’s Financial Turnaround

India: Infrastructure Set to Outpace IT as the Growth Engine

Beyond boundaries: G20 Influence elevates Indian markets to new peaks

Beyond boundaries: G20 Influence elevates Indian markets to new peaks

Introduction:

The recent rally in key benchmark indices, particularly in the Indian stock market, has caught the attention of market experts and participants. This is a significant milestone, marking the first time the index has crossed the 20,000 mark. It took 52 sessions for Nifty to climb from 19,000 to 20,000, indicating a steady and sustained upward trend. Sensex regained the 67,000 mark, this further emphasizes the positive sentiment in the market, with both major indices reaching new highs. Nifty reached a new peak of 20,008 after 36 sessions.

This surge is attributed to a participatory rally involving Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), and Indian retail investors. Additionally, recent triggers, including the success of the G20 summit, have played a pivotal role in attracting global investors to the Indian markets.

Participatory Rally by Diverse Investors:

The driving force behind the rally in Indian indices can be attributed to the collective participation of various investor groups. FIIs, DIIs, and Indian retail investors have all played significant roles in contributing to the upward momentum. The continuous inflows from these diverse sources have created a robust and inclusive market environment.

• FIIs Inflows: Foreign Institutional Investors have been actively participating in the Indian market, attracted by the country’s economic resilience and growth potential. The influx of foreign capital has not only provided liquidity but has also signaled global confidence in the Indian market.

• DIIs and Retail Investors: Domestic Institutional Investors, along with a surge in participation from retail investors, have added depth to the market rally. Increased retail investor activity, facilitated by easier access to markets and digital platforms, has injected vitality into the markets.

G20 Success and Global Investor Confidence:

The recent success of the G20 summit has acted as a significant catalyst, drawing global investors’ attention towards the Indian markets. The resounding success in addressing global economic challenges and fostering cooperation among nations has positioned India as an attractive investment destination. The G20’s success has injected momentum into the markets, yet valuations have room to surpass previous peaks. Increased bilateral trades, particularly in segments like pipes and cables, are anticipated. Sectors such as Railways, Shipping, and Logistics stand to gain from recent announcements. With strengthened corporate earnings, indices are poised for further growth in the near to medium term. Market euphoria has propelled indices past the 20,000 mark, eyeing 20,500 levels this month. Optimism, fueled by India’s strong showing at the G20 summit, is a key driver.

The Nifty has hit 20,000 in its second attempt after July 2023, propelled by strong domestic investment flows and mixed or negative overseas flows. In the face of global concerns, India’s achievement in space and foreign diplomacy has strengthened confidence. Despite their strong advance, smallcap and midcap companies warrant a reassessment of asset allocation and consideration of profit booking or capital raising.

• International Perception: The positive outcomes of the G20 summit have enhanced the international perception of India as a stable and growth-oriented economy. This has instilled confidence among global investors, leading to increased allocations to Indian equities.

• Attractiveness of Emerging Markets: Amid global uncertainties, emerging markets, including India, are viewed as promising investment destinations. The G20 success has underscored India’s commitment to economic reforms and sustainable development, further elevating its status among emerging market economies.

Conclusion:

The global financial markets have witnessed a remarkable phenomenon in recent months, with many key indices reaching unprecedented all-time highs. This surge has captured the attention of investors, analysts, and policymakers alike. The participatory rally in the Indian stock market, driven by the collective involvement of FIIs, DIIs, and retail investors, is a testament to the overall confidence in the country’s economic trajectory. The success of the G20 summit has amplified this sentiment, attracting global investors seeking stable and promising opportunities. As the Indian market continues to evolve, monitoring the sustained inflows and the impact of global events will be essential for investors and market participants to navigate and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

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Strategic Partnerships Fuel One97’s Financial Turnaround

AEL Resilient Q2 Performance in Energy and Airport Sectors

AEL Resilient Q2 Performance in Energy and Airport Sectors

AEL Resilient Q2 Performance in Energy and Airport Sectors

Company Name: Adani Enterprise Ltd | NSE Code: ADANIENT | BSE Code: 512599 | 52 Week high/low: 4,190/1,017 | CMP: INR 2,362 | Mcap: INR 2,69,240 Cr | PE: 103

Company Overview:

Adani Enterprise Ltd, a key player in the Adani Group, operates in the sectors of energy & utility, road & transport, FMCG & digital, and primary industries. The business is divided into two segments: Incubating Business (energy, airport, and road) and Established Business (retail, digital, and mining). AEL manages 8 airports in India, serving 23% of the total passenger base, and has 14 ongoing road projects covering 5000+ lane km. In the energy sector, the existing cell & module plant capacity is 2 GW, with an additional 2 GW in the new plant. AEL boasts the largest wind turbine generator globally, with a capacity of 5.2 MW, earning recognition for global WTG supply.

EBITDA gained momentum driven by strong incubating business:

EBITDA witnessed a robust 30% year-over-year growth in Q2FY24, primarily attributed to the outstanding performance of the Incubating Business segment, encompassing Energy and Airports. The Energy business demonstrated an extraordinary 11x YoY EBITDA surge, reaching 628 Cr, while the Airport business experienced a notable 15% YoY increase, totaling 568 Cr. Consequently, the consolidated EBITDA exhibited a noteworthy 30% YoY upswing (with a marginal -3.72% QoQ decline), amounting to 2,430 Cr, despite a reduction in overall revenue. In contrast, the Established Business segment, specifically IRM, witnessed a modest 4.4% YoY decline in EBITDA, settling at 1,063 Cr, whereas the Mining business demonstrated a commendable 17% YoY EBITDA growth.

Ensuring Sustained and Resilient Growth in Our Incubating Business

Incubating business exhibited robust growth, with combined revenue from airport and road operations surging 49% YoY to 1,946 Cr, driven by stellar operational performance. Passenger volume soared by 31% YoY to 21.4 Mn in Q2FY24 compared to 16.3 Mn in Q2FY23. Air traffic movement witnessed a 17% increase, while cargo experienced a 5% decline during the quarter. In the solar, wind, and data center segment, combined revenue surged by an impressive 216% YoY, reaching 1,939 Cr. This significant growth was attributed to a remarkable 205% YoY increase in module sales, totaling 630 compared to 206 in Q2FY23.

Margin improvement but PAT declined 23% YoY

In Q2FY24, the PAT saw a 23% YoY decline (-50% QoQ) to 333 Cr, attributed to a rise in the tax rate to 50% from 34% in Q2FY23. EBITDA and PAT margins showed improvements of 590 bps YoY and 35 bps YoY, respectively, driven by lower raw material costs and total Opex. The management maintains a 56% YoY reduction in raw material costs and an 8.17% YoY increase in operating costs.

Latest Developments in Data Center and ANIL Ecosystem Business:

In the Data Center segment, Chennai Phase-I 17 MW project is operational, Noida project- 50 MW was completed 63% of overall project and Hyderabad project -48 MW was completed 65% of overall project. In the ANIL Ecosystem business, solar manufacturing total operational capacity was at 4.0 GW, Wind Turbine manufacturing received final type certificate for prototype 1 and Nacelle & Hub facility – commenced commercial production.

Valuation and key ratio

The stock is currently trading at a high multiple of 103x EPS(TTM) 21.4 Rs at current market price of 2,362, with an industry PE of 38.7x. The company is valued at 2.5x its book value of 322 Rs per share. In EV/EBITDA, AEL ranks 5th among peers at 27x, compared to the industry median of 19.3x. The trailing twelve-month ROE and ROCE are 9.63% and 9.49%, respectively. The interest coverage ratio is 1.94x, indicating strong solvency.

Q2FY24 result update: Consolidated

➡️In Q2FY24, Consolidated revenue declined by 41% YoY (-11.5% QoQ) to 22,517 Cr, attributed to a slowdown in the IRM and mining business.

➡️Gross profit witnessed a 13% YoY growth (-10.5% QoQ) to 9,397 Cr, driven by a significant 56% YoY reduction in raw material costs. The gross margin showed a robust 19% YoY increase, reaching 41.7%.

➡️EBITDA surged by 30% YoY (-3.7% QoQ) to 2,430 Cr, propelled by the strong performance of incubating businesses, including energy and airport & road ventures. EBITDA margin increased by 590 bps YoY and 87 bps QoQ, reaching 10.7%.

➡️Operating business (EBIT) grew by 25% YoY (-7.5% QoQ) to 1,673 Cr, with EBIT margins expanding by 390 bps YoY and 31 bps QoQ, reaching 7.4%.

➡️PAT declined by 22.9% YoY (-50.8% QoQ) to 333 Cr, primarily due to an increased tax rate of 50% in Q2FY24 compared to 34% in Q2FY23.

➡️EPS for the quarter stood at 2.92 Rs, down from 5.94 Rs in the previous quarter.

Conclusion:

Adani Enterprise Ltd Q2FY24 showed strong EBITDA growth from thriving energy and airport businesses, offsetting an overall revenue decline. Despite a dip in PAT due to increased tax rates, the company remains resilient with a focus on sustained growth in incubating sectors. Key ratios indicate a high stock multiple and strong solvency. Ongoing developments in data centers and the ANIL ecosystem underscore AEL’s commitment to innovation and expansion.

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Strategic Partnerships Fuel One97’s Financial Turnaround