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NATO Eases Defence Spending Demand Following Spain's Objection to 5% GDP Commitment

NATO Eases Defence Spending Demand Following Spain's Objection to 5% GDP Commitment

NATO Eases Defence Spending Demand Following Spain’s Objection to 5% GDP Commitment

NATO recently softened its proposed military spending framework after Spain firmly opposed the initial plan. Originally, the alliance suggested that member nations contribute 5% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) toward defence by 2035. Spain’s strong resistance led NATO to revise its approach and introduce a more adaptable system that accommodates varying national budgets.

Spain Challenges the Proposed Spending

Spain quickly rejected the proposed defence target. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez argued that dedicating 5% of Spain’s GDP to military spending would put excessive pressure on public funds, threatening vital services such as healthcare, education, and welfare.
At this time, Spain allocates around 1.24% to 1.3% of its GDP to defence-related efforts. The Spanish government plans to raise this to 2.1% by 2025 but has made it clear that spending will not increase beyond that point. Sánchez emphasized that maintaining strong public welfare systems takes precedence over boosting military budgets.

NATO Provides Flexible Terms
Responding to Spain’s firm stance, NATO adjusted its agreement to offer member nations more spending freedom. The alliance changed the wording from “we commit” to “allies commit,” giving each country the ability to set its own defence spending targets.
This new arrangement allows Spain to follow its chosen defence investment pace while still contributing to NATO’s broader goals. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte also assured Spain in writing that it can continue on its planned budget path, provided it meets the defence capability expectations set by the alliance.

Spain Celebrates the Agreement
Prime Minister Sánchez welcomed the updated terms, describing them as a diplomatic achievement for Spain. He confirmed that the country will stick to its plan to gradually raise military spending to 2.1% of GDP, while actively supporting NATO’s security objectives. Sánchez also stressed that Spain’s focus on social welfare will remain unchanged.
The decision has been well received domestically, where public sentiment strongly supports the protection of essential social programs over significant increases in defence spending.

Broader Implications for NATO Members
Spain’s successful negotiation may influence other NATO countries that currently spend less on defence. Nations such as Italy, Belgium, Portugal, and Canada, which are also below the traditional 2% guideline, might now seek similar flexibility in their commitments.
Although some defence specialists worry that allowing exceptions could weaken NATO’s overall strength, alliance leaders argue that a flexible approach is essential to preserve cooperation among nations with varying economic pressures.

Key Moment for NATO’s Strategy
This adjustment arrives at a crucial time as NATO prepares for its summit in The Hague. The alliance aims to present a strong, unified stance while managing continuing security issues, including the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Concerns remain that internal disagreements over military budgets could harm NATO’s global image, especially after repeated criticism from former U.S. President Donald Trump regarding European defence contributions. By accepting Spain’s position, NATO has successfully prevented open disputes and maintained alliance harmony.

Scheduled Mid-Term Review in 2029
NATO’s revised framework includes a mid-term review set for 2029 to evaluate progress toward defence spending goals. This will provide an opportunity for each country to reassess its commitments based on evolving security needs.
Spain and other members will be able to revisit their defence strategies during the review, ensuring future flexibility depending on changing global circumstances.

Conclusion: NATO Prioritizes Flexibility and Unity
NATO’s decision to ease its defence spending requirement demonstrates a practical approach that balances collective security goals with individual national interests. By providing adaptable terms, NATO has upheld its unified strategy while recognising the budgetary limits of its members.
For Spain, this outcome represents a diplomatic win, allowing the country to contribute to NATO’s mission without compromising its social agenda. This flexible solution could serve as a model for addressing future internal disagreements, showing that NATO can evolve to accommodate diverse priorities among its allies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Indian Currency Slips: May Test ₹87 Mark Amid Worldwide Instability

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Indian Currency Slips: May Test ₹87 Mark Amid Worldwide Instability

Indian Currency Slips: May Test ₹87 Mark Amid Worldwide Instability

The Indian rupee is under significant pressure due to rising global tensions, surging crude oil prices, and strong corporate demand for the US dollar. Currency experts believe the rupee could soon breach the crucial ₹87 per dollar level if these conditions persist. The combination of geopolitical risks and India’s dependence on energy imports has made the domestic currency highly vulnerable in the current scenario.

Geopolitical Tensions Drive Rupee Weakness

The recent escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has created global uncertainty, pushing investors to shift their capital into safe-haven assets like the US dollar. This move has weakened several emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee. The rupee has been on a continuous downward path in recent weeks, declining from ₹85.60 in the beginning of June to ₹86.72 by June 19, 2025.This sharp decline marks the rupee’s weakest point in nearly three months.

Experts caution that if the geopolitical tensions worsen or if the conflict spreads further, the rupee may break past the ₹87 mark. The ongoing instability has already led to concerns about the supply of crude oil, a commodity India heavily relies on.

Oil Prices Continue to Push Import Costs Higher

India is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in crude oil prices, as the country imports around 85% of its energy needs. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have driven crude oil prices higher, with Brent crude nearing $79 per barrel recently. Analysts have warned that a $10 per barrel rise in crude oil prices could increase India’s current account deficit by approximately 0.3% to 0.4% of GDP.

A wider trade deficit forces India to spend more foreign currency on oil purchases, further increasing the demand for dollars and pushing the rupee down. The Indian rupee is likely to remain under stress as oil prices hold at higher levels.

 

Increased Dollar Demand from Indian Corporates

Apart from geopolitical concerns, the rising corporate demand for dollars is also contributing to the rupee’s weakness. Several Indian companies are actively purchasing dollars to cover their import payments and hedge against further rupee depreciation. This has created a strong demand for dollars within the domestic market.

The situation is further complicated by foreign investors pulling out funds from emerging markets amid growing global uncertainties. With capital outflows intensifying, the rupee faces additional downward pressure, increasing the likelihood of breaching ₹87 per dollar.

RBI Likely to Monitor and Intervene if Needed

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) generally allows the rupee to move in line with market forces, but the central bank has a history of stepping in if volatility becomes excessive. With over $699 billion in foreign exchange reserves, the RBI is well-positioned to intervene if the rupee’s fall accelerates beyond acceptable levels.

Analysts believe the RBI may not aggressively prevent the rupee from touching ₹87 but will act to limit sharp fluctuations that could create panic in the financial markets. The central bank’s intervention could temporarily stabilize the currency, but broader global factors will still dominate the long-term direction.

Potential Support from Upcoming IPO Inflows

One positive development that could offer temporary relief to the rupee is the upcoming large initial public offerings (IPOs) in India. The upcoming ₹1.5 billion IPO of HDB Financial Services is likely to draw significant interest from foreign portfolio investors. These inflows could help ease the pressure on the rupee in the short term by bringing in fresh dollars.

However, market participants note that such support may not last unless crude oil prices fall or the geopolitical environment improves. Unless a stable and favorable change occurs, the weakness of the rupee is likely to continue.

Near-Term Outlook: Monitoring Key Levels

According to currency analysts, the rupee is expected to fluctuate between ₹86.00 and ₹87.50 in the short term. Should the rupee firmly cross the ₹87 level, it may head towards ₹88 unless the Reserve Bank of India intervenes or new foreign investments enter the market.

Traders are also keeping a close watch on the global crude oil market, as any movement beyond $80 per barrel could trigger another round of rupee weakness. Additionally, the continuation of foreign capital outflows and persistent dollar demand from Indian corporates will further shape the currency’s trajectory.

Conclusion

The Indian rupee is currently navigating through a challenging environment dominated by external risks and domestic dollar requirements. While there are potential stabilizers like IPO inflows and RBI interventions, the overall outlook remains cautious. A further rise in oil prices or worsening geopolitical tensions could see the rupee crossing ₹87 per dollar soon. Market participants, businesses, and policymakers will need to stay vigilant as these critical factors continue to unfold.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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US Airstrike on Iran: Oil Shock for India

US Airstrike on Iran: Oil Shock for India

US Airstrike on Iran: Oil Shock for India

As geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East, India braces for potential fallout on inflation, trade deficits, and foreign capital movement—though experts caution the damage could remain contained if the crisis doesn’t widen.

Summary:
The recent US military strike on Iran has sent tremors through global markets, rekindling fears of a spike in crude oil prices and capital flow volatility—particularly for oil-importing nations like India. While economists warn of risks to India’s current account deficit, inflation, and trade balance, many believe the actual impact will be manageable unless the conflict spreads further. With India’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil and reliance on stable foreign capital inflows, the evolving geopolitical landscape could test the country’s economic resilience.

Tensions in the Gulf Threaten Fragile Economic Stability
In a move that could reshape geopolitical and economic equations in the region, the United States has carried out targeted airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, raising the spectre of a broader regional conflict. While the immediate military implications are being assessed globally, the economic ramifications—particularly for India—are already beginning to materialize.
Crude oil prices surged by over 6% overnight, breaching the $90 per barrel mark, as markets priced in the possibility of retaliatory action from Iran, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and general instability in one of the world’s most vital energy corridors.
India, as the third-largest importer of crude oil globally, is especially vulnerable to this type of external shock. Over 85% of the country’s oil needs are met through imports, with a significant portion coming from the Middle East. Any sustained rise in crude prices can upend India’s current account balance, inflation outlook, and fiscal deficit, posing significant challenges for policymakers.

Current Account Deficit Likely to Widen
India’s current account deficit (CAD) has been a point of concern in recent months, standing at 1.2% of GDP in FY24. A sudden spike in oil prices can add billions of dollars to the import bill, potentially pushing the CAD toward 2% or more, depending on how long prices stay elevated.
According to Nomura India, a $10 increase in crude oil prices for a sustained period could widen the CAD by 0.3% of GDP, translating to approximately $10–12 billion in additional import costs.
This deterioration in external balances could pressure the rupee, which has already been showing signs of depreciation, and make it more expensive for Indian corporates to service foreign currency debt.

Inflation and Fiscal Challenges Ahead
The impact on inflation is another major worry. While India’s inflation had been stabilizing after a turbulent 2023, elevated energy prices can lead to a pass-through effect on transportation, logistics, and food prices—especially vegetables and pulses, which are highly sensitive to fuel costs.
A prolonged spike in Brent crude could push headline CPI inflation beyond the 4.5% RBI target, potentially forcing the central bank to delay any interest rate cuts planned for the second half of 2025.
On the fiscal front, higher oil prices may compel the government to increase subsidies on LPG and diesel or cut excise duties—leading to a revenue shortfall at a time when the Centre is trying to balance fiscal prudence with growth stimulus ahead of state elections.

Capital Flow Volatility and Market Risks
In times of geopolitical stress, emerging markets often see capital outflows as global investors shift to safe-haven assets like the US dollar, gold, and US Treasuries. India’s foreign institutional investor (FII) flows have been robust so far in 2025, but that could reverse if risk aversion spikes.
Already, the benchmark BSE Sensex dropped 600 points, and the INR slipped to 83.80 per USD in early trade following news of the strike. If the conflict escalates further, market volatility may persist, impacting portfolio investments, bond yields, and currency stability.

Strategic Oil Reserves and Policy Measures in Place
India, however, is not entirely defenceless. The country maintains Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs) equivalent to around 9.5 days of consumption, which can be deployed during emergencies to buffer against sudden supply disruptions.
Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) holds forex reserves of over $640 billion, providing a firm cushion against external shocks and currency volatility. The government may also resort to calibrated excise cuts, oil bonds, and revised subsidies to soften the impact on the common man.

What Happens If the Conflict Escalates?
Economists caution that while the current situation is concerning, it remains manageable unless the conflict spreads to involve other Gulf countries or leads to an actual blockade of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the global oil supply passes.
Any Iranian retaliation targeting oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Iraq could send crude prices well past $100 per barrel, severely disrupting global and Indian economic forecasts.
“The longer the conflict drags on, the higher the risks to India’s macroeconomic stability,” said Sonal Verma, Chief Economist at Nomura India. “The silver lining is that India has buffers and past experience managing oil shocks—but policymakers will need to be agile.”

Geopolitics Meets Economics: A Test for India’s Resilience
In a globalized world, India’s economy is inextricably linked to geopolitical developments. The US strike on Iran has reignited concerns about energy security, foreign capital dependence, and inflation management. While India has improved its economic fundamentals over the past decade, external shocks like these highlight persistent vulnerabilities.
With the Union Budget 2025 and potential rate decisions by the RBI on the horizon, economic planning will have to incorporate these new geopolitical risks. Flexibility in fiscal policy, proactive diplomacy, and a focus on energy diversification will be critical in the months ahead.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Mutual Funds Now One-Third of Bank Deposits!

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Sambhv Launches IPO, Sets ₹2,400 Crore Valuation

Sambhv Launches IPO, Sets ₹2,400 Crore Valuation

IPO Overview: Price Band and Fundraising Target

Sambhv Steel Tubes, a leading Indian manufacturer of electric resistance welded (ERW) pipes, has opened its initial public offering (IPO) with a price range between ₹77 and ₹83 per equity share. At the higher end of the band, the company’s post-issue valuation reaches around ₹2,400 crore.

The IPO aims to raise up to ₹540 crore, which includes a fresh share issue worth ₹440 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) component of ₹100 crore, where existing promoters and shareholders will divest part of their stakes.

Purpose of the Issue: Strengthening Finances and Operations

The majority of the funds raised through the fresh issue—around ₹390 crore—will be used to repay outstanding borrowings. This move is intended to ease the company’s debt burden and improve financial stability.

The remaining proceeds will support general business activities, such as improving working capital, pursuing expansion opportunities, and upgrading operational efficiency across its existing value chain.

Company Profile: Vertically Integrated Manufacturing Advantage

It operates a backward-integrated production facility in Raipur, Chhattisgarh, allowing it to control the full production lifecycle—from sponge iron to hot-rolled coils to finished pipes.

This integration gives Sambhv a competitive edge by reducing dependence on external suppliers and ensuring better cost control and product quality throughout its manufacturing operations.

Distribution Network and Market Presence

As of the end of FY24, Sambhv had an annual production capacity of approximately 600,000 tonnes. The company services customers through 33 distributors spread across 15 Indian states and one union territory, backed by a retail network of over 600 dealers.

Its product range caters to multiple sectors, including infrastructure, telecom, oil and gas, automotive, agriculture, firefighting, and solar—positioning it as a well-diversified steel tube supplier.

Promoters and Shareholding Details

Founded in 2017 under the name Sambhv Sponge Power, the company rebranded in 2024 to better align with its core business in steel pipes.

The promoter group includes members of the Goyal family—namely Brijlal, Suresh Kumar, Vikas, Sheetal, Shashank, and Rohit Goyal—who will collectively divest ₹100 crore worth of shares through the OFS component of the IPO.

Financial Highlights: Consistent Revenue and Profit Growth

Sambhv reported strong financial results in FY24, with revenue rising to ₹1,286 crore, up from ₹937 crore in FY23—representing a growth of 37%.

This performance reflects the company’s increasing operational efficiency and growing demand for domestically manufactured ERW pipes.

According to CRISIL, the Indian market for steel pipes and tubes is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8–9%

IPO Allocation and Structure

The IPO will follow a book-building process. 50% of the shares are reserved for Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs), 15% for High Net-Worth Individuals (HNIs), and the remaining 35% for retail individual investors.

This allocation model is designed to ensure balanced participation from large institutions and retail investors alike, potentially increasing the stability and attractiveness of the IPO.

Use of Proceeds:

A major portion of the capital raised will go toward repaying loans, which is expected to reduce interest burdens and enhance the company’s credit profile.

The remaining funds will be used for operational improvements and scaling business operations to meet rising demand across sectors. This includes investments in working capital and modernization of production facilities.

Investment Perspective: Opportunities and Risks

Its backward-integrated operations and expanding market presence make it a strong contender in the ERW pipe space.

However, prospective investors should be aware of potential challenges such as fluctuations in global steel prices, supply chain constraints, and risks tied to aggressive capacity expansion. Managing these effectively will be key to sustaining margins and returns.

Conclusion: A Strong Step Toward Public Growth

Sambhv Steel Tubes’ IPO is a strategic move to capitalize on its growth trajectory, improve its balance sheet, and strengthen market positioning. With a valuation of ₹2,400 crore and a well-structured offering, the company aims to build investor confidence while driving its long-term expansion in India’s infrastructure-driven economy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Markets on Edge: Global Tensions and Domestic Triggers

Markets on Edge: Global Tensions and Domestic Triggers

From Middle East conflict to IPOs and foreign flows, multiple factors are set to steer the Indian stock market this week.

Rising Geopolitical Uncertainty: Israel-Iran Conflict in Focus

Recent military developments in the Middle East, including reported airstrikes and countermeasures, have raised alarms across global markets.

Brent crude hovering near the \$80 per barrel mark is particularly worrisome for an energy-import-dependent economy like India.

Higher oil prices could impact inflation, widen the current account deficit, and put additional pressure on the Indian rupee, which is already approaching the 87 mark against the U.S. dollar. Investors are likely to adopt a risk-averse stance, with volatility expected across mid- and small-cap segments.

Foreign and Domestic Investment Flows

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have recently displayed a mixed trend, oscillating between net buyers and sellers depending on global cues and domestic market sentiment. The ongoing geopolitical stress may push FIIs to adopt a cautious approach, potentially withdrawing or pausing inflows in the short term.

At the same time, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have been providing a counterbalance by maintaining a steady flow of capital into Indian equities. Their participation may continue to support market stability, especially in large-cap and defensive sectors like FMCG, IT, and pharmaceuticals.

IPO Activity Gathers Momentum

On the domestic front, primary markets are heating up. Several companies are either opening their IPOs or listing on the exchanges this week, attracting significant investor attention.

Other ongoing or upcoming IPOs in sectors like infrastructure, renewables, and manufacturing may also impact liquidity, especially as retail and institutional investors realign portfolios to participate in these public offerings.

Economic Indicators and Global Cues

Domestically, key figures such as the fiscal deficit, foreign exchange reserves, and GST collection data are due in the coming days. Any surprises in these metrics could spark sharp sector-specific movements.

Sectoral View: Defensive and Export-Driven Stocks May Gain

With the current level of uncertainty, defensive sectors are expected to outperform. FMCG and IT stocks—typically seen as safer bets—could attract capital due to their stable earnings outlook and relatively lower exposure to inflationary pressures.

However, companies heavily reliant on imported raw materials could face margin pressures due to rising input costs.

Technical Outlook and Market Sentiment

On the technical side, the Nifty 50 faces resistance near the 23,500–23,600 level, while support remains around 22,900. A decisive breach in either direction could define near-term momentum.

Market sentiment remains sensitive to headline risk. Analysts expect increased volatility through the week, with traders likely to adopt a cautious, stock-specific approach rather than broad index bets.

Conclusion: Brace for Volatility Amid Mixed Signals

The Indian stock market is likely to experience heightened volatility in the coming week, driven by a complex mix of global tensions, IPO activity, foreign fund flows, and macroeconomic data. Investors are advised to remain cautious, focus on fundamentally sound stocks, and maintain diversified portfolios.

Traders, in particular, should be prepared for swift market reactions to news related to oil prices, geopolitical developments, and upcoming domestic economic indicators.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Bitcoin Dips Below $77K, Ether Drops 6%!

Bitcoin Dips Below $77K, Ether Drops 6%!

Bitcoin Dips Below $77K, Ether Drops 6%!

Bitcoin Dips Below $77K, Ether Drops 6%!

Broader Risk-Off Sentiment Sparks Crypto Selloff as Investors Brace for Economic Uncertainty and U.S. Rate Jitters

Summary:
Bitcoin fell below the $77,000 threshold on Tuesday, extending its recent losses as global stock markets sold off sharply. Ether followed suit with a 6% decline, reflecting broader risk aversion among investors. Experts cite upcoming macroeconomic data, U.S. rate outlook, and overbought technicals as key reasons for the correction. However, strong buying support is expected around $73,000–$70,000 for Bitcoin, suggesting a possible short-term floor for the leading cryptocurrency.

Crypto Markets Crumble as Equities Weaken
In a sharp turn of sentiment, the cryptocurrency market slipped into the red early Tuesday, led by declines in Bitcoin and Ether. At 10:22 a.m. in Singapore, Bitcoin was trading at $79,477, having briefly breached the $77,000 mark. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell by 6%, sparking wider worries across the digital asset market.
This decline comes amid a global selloff in risk assets, with equity markets from Asia to Europe facing pressure from a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve, fragile economic data, and rising geopolitical risks. The correlation between crypto and traditional financial markets appears to be strengthening, particularly during periods of volatility.

Investor Caution Rises Ahead of U.S. Economic Data
Investors are becoming more cautious as the market prepares for important U.S. economic reports coming later this week, such as jobless claims, consumer spending figures, and an inflation report that many observers are paying close attention to. These data points are expected to offer more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s stance regarding interest rate cuts in 2025.
The uncertain rate outlook has put pressure on speculative assets like crypto. Higher yields make traditional assets more attractive, diminishing the appeal of non-yielding, volatile instruments like Bitcoin.
Hayden Hughes, head of crypto investments at family office Evergreen Growth, highlighted this sentiment by stating, “There will be strong buying at the $73,000 and $70,000 levels.” He believes those levels represent technical support zones that could trigger renewed accumulation.

Risk-Off Sentiment Intensifies as Bulls Retreat
The recent downtrend has caught several bullish traders off guard. Bitcoin had rallied strongly in early 2025, briefly touching all-time highs near $84,000, driven by strong ETF inflows, halving anticipation, and increasing institutional interest. However, the recent correction suggests the bull run may be cooling off, at least in the short term.
Technical analysts point out that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached overbought territory, suggesting that a pullback may be on the horizon. Given the broader economic challenges, the selloff seems to represent more of a consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal.

Ether Slides Sharply: Regulatory Uncertainty Lingers
While Bitcoin’s decline was relatively measured, Ether’s 6% drop reflects deeper concerns. The Ethereum ecosystem continues to face regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the U.S., where the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has yet to offer clear guidelines on Ethereum’s status.
Additionally, the slow uptake of Ethereum Layer-2 scaling solutions and delays in expected upgrades have dulled enthusiasm around Ether. Institutional interest remains primarily focused on Bitcoin, further widening the divergence between the two leading digital assets.

Altcoins, DeFi, and NFTs Follow Suit
The overall cryptocurrency market reflected the losses experienced by the leading coins. Key altcoins like Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), and Polkadot (DOT) all dropped 4–8%, while primary DeFi tokens, including Aave, Compound, and Uniswap, also saw red. The NFT sector continues to face liquidity issues and declining floor prices, further evidence of declining speculative interest.
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrency has dropped below $2.9 trillion, declining by almost $100 billion in just 24 hours, as reported by CoinMarketCap. Trading volumes surged, indicating panic selling or aggressive rebalancing by traders and institutions alike.

What’s Next? A Recovery or Prolonged Consolidation?
Despite short-term weakness, most analysts remain optimistic about crypto’s long-term growth trajectory. Factors like Bitcoin ETF inflows, rising global inflation hedging, and blockchain innovation are expected to drive medium- to long-term adoption.
Short-term price action will largely depend on how markets digest macroeconomic data and Fed commentary over the coming weeks. If the Fed signals a pause or potential cuts by year-end, crypto could rebound strongly.
On the other hand, continued rate-tightening rhetoric or weak economic data could push Bitcoin closer to the $70,000 support area—possibly testing market conviction before another leg higher.

Expert Insights: Is This a Buying Opportunity?
While fear has returned to the market, some seasoned investors view the correction as a healthy pullback. According to Hughes, “This isn’t the end of the bull run—it’s a breather. Smart money will start accumulating at key technical levels.”
Long-term holders, also known as “HODLers,” continue to maintain their positions, with on-chain data showing minimal movement of older wallets, suggesting conviction remains strong among core believers.

Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin fell below $77K amid global stock market turmoil.
Ether dropped 6%, reflecting broader weakness across altcoins.
Investors await U.S. economic data that could influence rate policy.
Analysts anticipate that there will be buying interest in Bitcoin within the range of $70,000 to $73,000.
Market fluctuations might persist until there is greater clarity in the macroeconomic landscape.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Tel Aviv Stock Exchange Soars as U.S. Enters Israel-Iran Conflict

Tel Aviv Stock Exchange Soars as U.S. Enters Israel-Iran Conflict

Despite missile barrages and rising geopolitical risks, Israeli equities rally to record highs, while Gulf markets show mixed reactions as the U.S. targets Iran’s nuclear sites.

Introduction
The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) has soared to record levels after the U.S. military launched direct strikes on critical Iranian nuclear sites, intensifying its involvement in Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran.
While Israeli equities display remarkable resilience, Gulf markets—particularly in Kuwait and Oman—have experienced volatility, reflecting investor concerns about regional escalation. This article explores the latest developments, market reactions, and what lies ahead for the region’s financial landscape.

U.S. Strikes on Iran: A New Phase in Regional Tensions
Early Sunday, the U.S. military, under President Donald Trump, launched coordinated airstrikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites: Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz. This intervention marks a dramatic escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, which had already entered its second week of hostilities. The U.S. used advanced B-2 stealth bombers equipped with bunker-buster munitions, targeting Iran’s most fortified nuclear infrastructure.
President Trump, in a nationally televised address, declared the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities and warned of further action should Iran retaliate. Iranian officials, however, asserted that their nuclear ambitions remain undeterred and promised a robust response, heightening fears of a broader regional confrontation.

Tel Aviv Stock Exchange: Defying Expectations Amid Crisis
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Israeli equities have not only weathered the storm but have flourished. On Sunday, the TASE 125 index surged 1.5%, while the TA-35 index climbed 1.6% at the opening bell, with both benchmarks hitting record highs.
Over the preceding week, the TA-35 gained 5%, and the TA-90 soared by 7.6%, with the shekel stabilizing against the dollar after initial volatility.
This bullish trend persisted even as Iran launched missile attacks on Israeli cities, including direct hits near Tel Aviv and damage to civilian infrastructure. Despite these threats, the TASE closed at 6,161.00 ILA, representing a 1.67% increase in a single session and a cumulative 14% gain since the conflict’s onset.

Why Are Israeli Stocks Rallying?
Several factors underpin this unexpected market resilience:
• Investor Confidence: Market participants appear to believe in the robustness of Israel’s economy and its ability to withstand external shocks.
• Perceived Resolution: Some traders interpret the U.S. intervention as a potential catalyst for a quicker end to hostilities, reducing long-term uncertainty.
• Economic Policy Signals: Israeli officials have begun easing domestic restrictions, signaling a return to normalcy and bolstering investor sentiment.
• Sector Leadership: Financial stocks, particularly banks, have led the rally, reflecting confidence in the stability of Israel’s financial sector.

Gulf Markets: Volatility and Divergence
While Israeli equities rallied, Gulf markets responded with initial caution. On Sunday, the majority of Gulf markets opened lower as investors assessed the fallout from U.S. airstrikes on Iran.
However, some markets managed to recover:
• Kuwait: The Boursa Kuwait Premier Market Index recovered from initial declines, signaling a measure of investor confidence amid prevailing regional uncertainties.
• Oman: The MSX30 Index in Muscat fell by 0.3–0.6%, signaling continued concern over the conflict’s potential economic impact.
• Qatar and Saudi Arabia: Qatar’s main index rose over 1% after an initial dip, while Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index posted modest gains, buoyed by strong performances from major banks.

Oil and Energy Markets
Amid the turmoil, oil prices have surged, with Brent crude jumping as much as 7% in recent sessions. The threat of supply disruptions—especially if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping lane—has added to market jitters. Qatar, which jointly operates the vast South Pars gas field with Iran, has initiated emergency discussions with major energy firms to evaluate possible ramifications.

The Broader Economic and Political Context
The escalating conflict has further deepened uncertainty in a region already grappling with heightened geopolitical instability.
The U.S. move is widely viewed as a “game changer,” not only for the fate of Iran’s nuclear program but also for the regional economic outlook. While Israeli markets display resilience, global investors remain wary, with many bracing for possible volatility in global equities and a flight to safe-haven assets if the conflict widens.
Iran’s vow to retaliate and the lack of clarity over the U.S.’s next steps mean that markets could face further turbulence. The situation is fluid, and much depends on whether the conflict spreads or remains contained.

Conclusion
The remarkable surge in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange amid active conflict and missile attacks underscores both the resilience of Israel’s economy and the complex calculus of regional investors. While Israeli equities have soared to record highs, Gulf markets have experienced mixed fortunes, reflecting both immediate concerns and longer-term hopes for stability. The U.S. intervention has undoubtedly shifted the dynamics, but with Iran promising retaliation and the potential for further escalation, the region’s markets remain on edge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Icon Facilitators IPO Launches June 24 with Price Band of ₹85–91

BEML Secures $6.23M Export Orders from Russia, Uzbekistan!

India Suspends Tea Exports to Iran: Market Crisis Looms

India Suspends Tea Exports to Iran: Market Crisis Looms

India has halted tea exports to Iran in light of escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. This move could threaten the premium orthodox tea trade and access to West Asian markets through the Strait of Hormuz.

Summary:
Due to the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, India has put a temporary hold on its tea exports to Tehran. The halt, prompted by diplomatic caution and disrupted communication channels, directly affects the shipment of premium orthodox tea valued at ₹100–150 crore. Concerns are mounting over trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening broader West Asian market access and raising fears of prolonged economic implications for India’s tea industry.

India’s Tea Trade Stalls Amid Israel-Iran Conflict: Strategic and Economic Ramifications
As tensions escalate between Iran and Israel, ripple effects are being felt far beyond the Middle East, with India suspending its tea exports to Iran—a major buyer of premium Indian orthodox tea. The decision, although unofficially termed “temporary,” is deeply rooted in the growing security concerns and communication breakdown triggered by the ongoing conflict.
According to trade sources and industry officials, tea shipments valued between ₹100–150 crore annually—primarily comprising high-quality orthodox tea from Assam and Darjeeling—have now come to a halt. This marks a significant blow to India’s tea exporters, especially at a time when the industry is already grappling with global inflation, shipping disruptions, and rising input costs.

Why Did India Halt Tea Exports to Iran?
The tea export halt comes amidst a diplomatic deadlock and geopolitical volatility stemming from the active Iran-Israel conflict, which has intensified military actions, cyber warfare, and threats to regional shipping routes.
Several Indian tea exporters have reported:
Breakdown in banking and payment communication with Iranian counterparts.
Concerns over logistical risks in West Asia, especially due to threats around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade artery for India’s exports.
A general de-risking approach advised by export associations and government advisories amid rising tensions.
A Kolkata-based tea exporter stated, “We’ve had to stop processing orders for Iran because there’s no clarity on payments, and the insurance cost for shipments has spiked. Even letters of credit are now being reviewed more stringently.”

Impact on the Indian Tea Industry
India exports nearly $800–900 million worth of tea annually, with Iran ranking among the top five buyers—particularly for orthodox teas, which fetch higher margins compared to standard CTC (crush-tear-curl) teas.
Key implications of the suspension include:
Revenue Loss: An immediate impact on shipments valued at ₹100–150 crore, mostly for orthodox tea, which is costlier to produce and has fewer buyers globally.
Inventory Pile-Up: Exporters and tea gardens in Assam and Darjeeling fear accumulation of unsold stock, leading to cash flow bottlenecks.
Price Pressure: Domestic tea prices may fall due to oversupply in the absence of Iran-bound exports, hurting tea growers and small producers.
Market Uncertainty: With Russia and the UAE already facing sanctions-related trade scrutiny, Iran’s exit, even temporarily, squeezes options for Indian exporters.
Tea Board officials have expressed concern over these developments and are closely monitoring the situation. While some exporters are exploring alternative markets in Central Asia and Eastern Europe, such transitions take time and do not guarantee the exact pricing or volume.

Strait of Hormuz: A Strategic Choke Point
A significant concern is the Strait of Hormuz, which serves as a passage for about 20% of the world’s oil and a large amount of cargo, including exports from India. Any military escalation that impairs navigation through this strait could:
Disrupt West Asian trade routes
Increase shipping insurance premiums
This leads to delays or cancellations in high-value cargo deliveries
If the conflict expands further, India’s entire export strategy for the West Asia-North Africa (WANA) region may need revision, with wide-ranging effects on agro-products, textiles, and pharmaceuticals in addition to tea.

Industry Reaction & Government Engagement
The Tea Exporters Association of India (TEAI) and other trade bodies are urging the Indian government to intervene diplomatically and help set up alternative payment mechanisms or consider re-routing shipments through neutral ports.
A senior member of the Indian Tea Association (ITA) said, “The government should assess possibilities of barter trade or localized payment arrangements like rupee-rial trade, as used earlier, to mitigate the crisis. Iran remains a vital market for orthodox tea.”
Meanwhile, small tea growers in North Bengal and Assam have started protesting delayed payments from private buyers and auction houses, citing the Iran disruption as one of the root causes.

Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Fallout
India has so far maintained a neutral stance in the Israel-Iran conflict, calling for de-escalation and peaceful resolution through dialogue. However, economic interests like energy security and trade stability are deeply intertwined with regional peace.
Experts argue that:
The instability of the Middle East could impact India’s oil import bill and foreign exchange reserves.
Strategic sectors like tea, spices, and agro-exports could suffer due to shipping insurance surges and war risk premiums.
If the conflict persists or escalates, there may be long-term trade realignments, affecting India’s traditional trade partners and pushing it to diversify export geographies.

Looking Ahead: Contingency and Adaptation
With no immediate resolution in sight, Indian tea exporters are now being advised to:
Pause new orders to Iran until clarity on trade channels is restored.
Diversify into Africa, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia to reduce dependency on West Asia.
Enhance domestic marketing of orthodox tea to absorb excess stock.
Government agencies may also step in with export subsidies or support schemes to assist affected stakeholders in the tea supply chain.

Conclusion
The sudden halt in India’s tea exports to Iran, prompted by the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, underscores how deeply global geopolitical tensions can impact localized industries and small businesses. As diplomacy races against time and military escalations, India’s tea sector stands at a critical crossroads—one that will test its resilience, adaptability, and strategic foresight in global trade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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BEL Bags Fresh Defence Orders Worth ₹585 Crore, Expands Strategic Focus

Forex Reserves Hit $698.95 Billion: Key Factors Behind India’s Surge

Forex Reserves Hit $698.95 Billion: Key Factors Behind India’s Surge

Forex Reserves Hit $698.95 Billion: Key Factors Behind India’s Surge

A robust rise in foreign currency assets and gold holdings pushes India’s reserves near record highs, signaling strength and resilience in the external sector.

Introduction
As of June 13, 2025, India’s foreign exchange holdings grew by $2.29 billion to stand at $698.95 billion. This marks the second consecutive weekly gain and brings reserves close to their all-time high. The surge is driven by strong foreign currency assets, higher gold reserves, and continued global investor confidence, reinforcing India’s ability to weather external shocks and maintain economic stability.

The Latest Numbers: Breaking Down the Surge
During the week ending June 13, 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recorded a $2.29 billion rise in foreign exchange reserves, building on a stronger $5.17 billion surge reported the week before. This brings the total reserves to $698.95 billion, just shy of the record $704.885 billion set in September 2024.
Key Components of the Reserve Growth
• Foreign Currency Assets:
The largest portion of India’s reserves, these assets rose by $1.739 billion to $589.426 billion. The value reflects not only dollar holdings but also assets denominated in euros, yen, and pounds, whose appreciation contributed to the overall increase.
• Gold Reserves:
India’s gold holdings added $428 million, now totaling $86.316 billion. Gold continues to serve as a strategic buffer, especially in times of global uncertainty.
• Special Drawing Rights (SDRs):
SDRs, an international reserve asset created by the IMF, rose by $85 million to $18.756 billion.
• IMF Reserve Position:
India’s position with the IMF increased by $43 million, now at $4.452 billion, reflecting enhanced financial standing in the international community.

Why Are Forex Reserves Rising?
Strong Foreign Inflows
The sustained increase is largely attributed to continued foreign investment inflows, both in equity and debt markets. India’s robust economic growth, stable macroeconomic indicators, and improving corporate balance sheets have made it an attractive destination for global investors.
Stable External Environment
Despite ongoing global uncertainties, India’s external sector has shown remarkable stability. The RBI’s prudent management of the rupee and timely interventions in the forex market have helped prevent excessive volatility, supporting the steady build-up of reserves.
Gold’s Strategic Role
Rising gold reserves underscore India’s commitment to diversifying its reserve portfolio. Gold acts as a hedge against currency fluctuations and global economic shocks, providing additional security to the country’s financial system.

Economic Implications
Import Cover and Debt Security
With reserves now sufficient to cover more than 11 months of imports and about 96% of outstanding external debt, India’s position as a resilient economy is reinforced. This buffer is crucial for managing trade imbalances and shielding the economy from sudden capital outflows or external shocks.
Confidence in the Rupee
A strong reserve buffer provides the RBI with enhanced ability to manage currency market fluctuations, aiding in rupee stabilization during turbulent periods. This contributes to bolstering investor trust and ensuring stability in financial markets.
Support for Policy Initiatives
High reserves provide the government and central bank with the headroom needed to pursue growth-oriented policies without the immediate fear of external financing pressures. This is particularly important as India continues to invest in infrastructure, technology, and social welfare programs.

Nearing Record Highs: What’s Next?
India’s foreign exchange reserves have risen by almost $7.5 billion over the past two weeks, bringing them within reach of their record peak. Analysts expect that, barring unforeseen global disruptions, reserves could soon surpass the previous record, further strengthening India’s economic foundation.

RBI’s Perspective
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra recently highlighted the resilience of India’s external sector, noting that key vulnerability indicators have improved steadily. He expressed confidence in the country’s ability to meet all external financing requirements, emphasizing that the current reserve build-up is a testament to the strength of India’s fundamentals4.

Conclusion
India’s rising forex reserves are more than just a statistical achievement—they are a reflection of the country’s economic resilience, prudent policymaking, and growing global stature. As reserves approach record levels, India is better equipped than ever to navigate global uncertainties, support the rupee, and maintain investor confidence. The outlook remains positive, with the nation well-positioned to sustain its growth momentum and safeguard its economic interests.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Silver Finally Confirms Platinum’s Take: 2025’s Precious Metals Rally Enters New Phase

Government Mulls Relaxing FDI Rules for E-Commerce Exports — Who Wins, and by how much?

India Rises to 15th in Global FDI Rankings!

India Rises to 15th in Global FDI Rankings!

India Rises to 15th in Global FDI Rankings!

UNCTAD Report Highlights India’s Resilience as FDI Magnet, Bolstered by Greenfield Projects and Policy Initiatives

Summary:
India has improved its global standing by moving up one rank to the 15th position among top foreign direct investment (FDI) destinations in 2024, according to the latest World Investment Report by UNCTAD. While overall FDI inflows slightly declined to $27.6 billion from $28.1 billion in 2023, the country witnessed a strong surge in greenfield project announcements, underscoring its long-term attractiveness for investors despite global economic uncertainty.

India Moves Up to 15th Rank in Global FDI List Despite Decline in Inflows: UNCTAD
India has demonstrated its resilience and investment appeal by climbing one notch to 15th place among the world’s top Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) destinations in 2024, even as its total FDI inflows slightly dropped, the latest World Investment Report 2024 by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has revealed.

FDI Inflows: A Marginal Decline, But Big Picture Positive
The report indicates that India received $27.6 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2024, a slight decrease from $28.1 billion in 2023, representing a decline of approximately 1.8%. This drop, however, must be viewed in the context of global headwinds: overall global FDI flows fell by 2% to $1.3 trillion in 2024, following a sharper 12% drop in 2023, reflecting economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, tighter monetary policies, and declining corporate profits worldwide.
Despite this modest dip, India’s performance stands out positively when compared with other developing economies. The report highlighted that the number of announced greenfield projects — which is a strong indicator of long-term investor confidence — in India, the number of greenfield project announcements increased by more than 20%, positioning the country as third in the world.

Greenfield Surge: The Underlying Strength
UNCTAD’s report underscores that India’s strength lies not just in short-term inflows but in long-term investment commitments. The country has recorded a remarkable increase in greenfield project announcements, especially in the renewable energy, electronics, automotive, and digital infrastructure sectors.
Sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs), semiconductor manufacturing, solar and wind energy, and data centres have witnessed robust investor interest. Companies like Foxconn, Micron Technology, and Tesla’s suppliers have either committed or shown interest in establishing new facilities in India, encouraged by government incentives and schemes such as PLI (Production Linked Incentive) and ‘Make in India’.
The greenfield momentum also reflects India’s demographic advantage, rapid digital transformation, policy consistency, and a growing consumer market that continues to attract global corporations despite short-term macroeconomic challenges.

FDI Inflows by Region: Asia Remains Dominant
Asia maintained its position as the top global recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI), securing $621 billion in 2024. India remains a bright spot within South Asia, accounting for over 80% of the region’s FDI, as per UNCTAD estimates. In contrast, FDI inflows to China fell significantly due to geopolitical factors and a subdued property market, whereas Southeast Asia saw moderate inflows supported by regional trade agreements and supply chain diversification.
The United States continued to be the leading destination for foreign direct investment, with China, Singapore, and Brazil following behind. Notably, countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, and the UAE also saw improvements in FDI rankings due to aggressive trade policies and infrastructure enhancements.

Government Response and Reform Agenda
India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry welcomed the findings, stating that the improved rank in the UNCTAD index is reflective of the continued trust global investors place in India’s policy regime and long-term potential.
In the last year, the Indian government has implemented a number of significant reforms, including:
Simplifying FDI norms across key sectors like telecom, defence, and retail
Creating a National Single Window System to streamline investment approvals
Expanding PLI schemes to cover additional sectors
Fast-tracking land and labour reforms at the state level to make the business environment more investor-friendly
These proactive initiatives are aimed at not just attracting FDI but ensuring that it leads to job creation, technology transfer, and regional development.

Challenges Still Loom
Despite the positives, experts caution that India must tackle specific persistent challenges to sustain this momentum. These include:
Regulatory complexities and policy unpredictability at the state level
Infrastructure bottlenecks in tier-II and tier-III cities
Delays in contract enforcement and land acquisition
Rising concerns over data privacy and cybersecurity in the digital economy
Moreover, global factors such as rising interest rates in developed markets and political instability in key partner nations may continue to impact short-term capital flows.

Outlook: Cautious Optimism Prevails
Analysts believe that India’s position as an emerging global FDI hub is only strengthening, particularly as global companies diversify supply chains and seek alternatives to China. The convergence of favourable demographics, proactive policy interventions, and improving infrastructure gives India a strong foundation to capitalize on global investment flows in the coming decade.
The slight fall in actual inflows is thus not a sign of weakness but rather a temporary blip in a broader upward trajectory.

Conclusion
India’s rise to the 15th position in global FDI rankings amid a worldwide slowdown in investment flows is a testament to its underlying economic resilience and improving ease of doing business. While inflows declined marginally, the surge in greenfield project announcements indicates strong investor confidence in India’s long-term growth story. With continued reforms, infrastructure upgrades, and policy stability, India is poised to attract even greater FDI in the years to come.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Woodside and Petronas Secure Long-Term LNG Pact Backed by U.S. Project